Intrinsic value of Amyris, Inc. - AMRS

Previous Close

$2.26

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$2.26

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMRS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  146
  149
  153
  157
  162
  167
  173
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  227
  236
  247
  258
  269
  282
  295
  308
  323
  338
  354
  371
  388
  407
  427
  447
  469
Variable operating expenses, $m
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  93
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  136
  139
  142
  145
  148
  152
  155
  158
  162
  165
  169
  173
  176
  180
  184
  188
  193
  197
  201
  206
  210
  215
  219
  224
  229
  234
  239
  245
  250
  255
Total operating expenses, $m
  206
  211
  216
  221
  226
  233
  238
  244
  251
  258
  264
  272
  279
  287
  296
  305
  315
  324
  334
  345
  356
  368
  379
  391
  404
  418
  432
  447
  462
  477
Operating income, $m
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -64
  -64
  -65
  -65
  -65
  -65
  -65
  -63
  -63
  -62
  -61
  -60
  -58
  -57
  -55
  -53
  -50
  -48
  -45
  -41
  -38
  -34
  -30
  -25
  -20
  -14
  -8
EBITDA, $m
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -55
  -55
  -56
  -55
  -55
  -55
  -54
  -53
  -52
  -50
  -49
  -47
  -45
  -42
  -39
  -36
  -33
  -29
  -25
  -21
  -16
  -11
  -6
  0
  7
  14
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  29
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
Earnings before tax, $m
  -89
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -63
  -62
  -63
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -63
  -62
  -62
  -61
  -59
  -58
  -56
  -54
  -52
  -50
  -47
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -89
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -63
  -62
  -63
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -63
  -62
  -62
  -61
  -59
  -58
  -56
  -54
  -52
  -50
  -47

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  144
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  171
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  305
  319
  334
  350
  367
  385
  403
  422
  443
  464
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  144
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  171
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  305
  319
  334
  350
  367
  385
  403
  422
  443
  464
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.014
  1.007
  1.007
  1.006
  1.006
  1.006
  1.012
  1.011
  1.011
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.009
  1.013
  1.009
  1.012
  1.012
  1.007
  1.011
  1.010
  1.010
  1.013
  1.012
  1.011
  1.011
  1.008
  1.010
  1.012
  1.009
  1.011
Average production assets, $m
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
Working capital, $m
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
Total debt, $m
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -37
  -32
  -28
  -23
  -17
  -11
  -5
  2
  9
  17
  25
  34
  43
  53
  63
  74
  86
  98
  111
  124
  138
  153
  169
  186
  203
  222
  241
Total liabilities, $m
  130
  133
  136
  140
  144
  149
  154
  160
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  275
  287
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
  380
  399
  418
Total equity, $m
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  144
  148
  151
  156
  160
  166
  171
  178
  184
  191
  199
  207
  216
  224
  234
  244
  256
  267
  279
  291
  306
  319
  334
  350
  367
  384
  403
  422
  443
  464
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -3.250
  -2.970
  -2.670
  -2.350
  -2.020
  -1.680
  -1.320
  -0.970
  -0.610
  -0.260
  0.100
  0.440
  0.780
  1.120
  1.440
  1.760
  2.070
  2.370
  2.660
  2.930
  3.200
  3.460
  3.710
  3.950
  4.180
  4.400
  4.610
  4.810
  5.010
  5.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -89
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -63
  -62
  -63
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -63
  -62
  -62
  -61
  -59
  -58
  -56
  -54
  -52
  -50
  -47
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Funds from operations, $m
  -81
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -53
  -53
  -53
  -53
  -53
  -53
  -52
  -51
  -50
  -49
  -48
  -46
  -45
  -43
  -40
  -38
  -35
  -32
  -28
  -25
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -81
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -51
  -52
  -52
  -53
  -53
  -53
  -53
  -53
  -52
  -52
  -51
  -50
  -49
  -47
  -46
  -44
  -42
  -40
  -37
  -34
  -31
  -28
  -24
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
Free cash flow, $m
  -88
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -63
  -64
  -64
  -65
  -65
  -66
  -66
  -66
  -66
  -65
  -65
  -65
  -64
  -63
  -62
  -60
  -59
  -57
  -55
  -53
  -50
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -212
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  304
  54
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  62
  63
  64
  63
  64
  64
  65
  65
  65
  65
  65
  65
  64
  64
  63
  62
  61
  60
  58
  56
  54
  52
  49
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  92
  57
  59
  61
  62
  65
  66
  67
  69
  70
  70
  71
  72
  73
  74
  74
  75
  75
  76
  76
  76
  76
  76
  75
  75
  74
  73
  72
  70
  68
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -304
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -63
  -64
  -63
  -64
  -64
  -65
  -65
  -65
  -65
  -65
  -65
  -64
  -64
  -63
  -62
  -61
  -60
  -58
  -56
  -54
  -52
  -49
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -300
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -55
  -56
  -56
  -57
  -57
  -57
  -57
  -57
  -57
  -56
  -55
  -55
  -54
  -52
  -51
  -49
  -47
  -45
  -43
  -40
  -37
  -34
  -31
Discount rate, %
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -284
  -44
  -43
  -40
  -38
  -36
  -33
  -30
  -27
  -25
  -22
  -19
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  10.6
  2.2
  0.5
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Amyris, Inc. is an integrated industrial biotechnology company. The Company is engaged in research and development and sales of fuels and farnesene-derived products. It is applying its industrial synthetic biology platform to engineer, manufacture and sell products into a range of consumer and industrial markets, including cosmetics, flavors and fragrances (F&F), solvents and cleaners, polymers, lubricants, healthcare products and fuels. The Company focuses on a renewable hydrocarbon molecule called farnesene (Biofene). The Company is expanding its range of products across various categories divided into consumer and industrial applications. For consumer applications, the Company is developing and selling personal care products (which include ingredients for cosmetics and F&F), healthcare products and formulated end user products, such as Biossance brand skincare products and Muck Daddy brand hand cleaner product.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Amyris, Inc. (AMRS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.4
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book -0.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 97.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -34%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -91.3%
Total Debt to Equity -105.4%
Interest Coverage -9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -73.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -66.6%
Return On Total Capital -3880%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1432%
Return On Equity 56.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.9%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
EBITDA Margin -113.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -203.4%
Operating Margin -149.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -282.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -144.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -252.4%
Net Profit Margin -144.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -260.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMRS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMRS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $143 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Amyris, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Amyris, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMRS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for AMRS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Amyris, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Amyris, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMRS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 48.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $133 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMRS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 17.3% for Amyris, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Amyris, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMRS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMRS are equal to 23.6%.

Life of production assets of 3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Amyris, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMRS is equal to -4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-200.644 million for Amyris, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 73.557 million for Amyris, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Amyris, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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