Intrinsic value of American Superconductor - AMSC

Previous Close

$10.70

  Intrinsic Value

$0.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$10.70

 
Intrinsic value

$0.57

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMSC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  41.30
  37.67
  34.40
  31.46
  28.82
  26.43
  24.29
  22.36
  20.63
  19.06
  17.66
  16.39
  15.25
  14.23
  13.30
  12.47
  11.73
  11.05
  10.45
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.22
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
Revenue, $m
  68
  94
  127
  166
  214
  271
  337
  412
  497
  592
  696
  810
  934
  1,067
  1,209
  1,360
  1,519
  1,687
  1,863
  2,048
  2,241
  2,442
  2,651
  2,869
  3,096
  3,331
  3,576
  3,830
  4,094
  4,369
Variable operating expenses, $m
  55
  76
  102
  134
  173
  218
  271
  331
  400
  476
  559
  651
  750
  857
  971
  1,092
  1,220
  1,354
  1,496
  1,644
  1,799
  1,960
  2,128
  2,303
  2,485
  2,674
  2,870
  3,075
  3,287
  3,507
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
Total operating expenses, $m
  98
  120
  147
  180
  220
  266
  320
  381
  451
  528
  612
  706
  806
  914
  1,029
  1,151
  1,281
  1,416
  1,560
  1,709
  1,865
  2,028
  2,197
  2,374
  2,557
  2,748
  2,946
  3,152
  3,366
  3,588
Operating income, $m
  -30
  -26
  -20
  -14
  -5
  5
  17
  31
  46
  64
  84
  105
  128
  153
  180
  209
  239
  271
  304
  339
  376
  414
  454
  495
  538
  583
  630
  678
  729
  781
EBITDA, $m
  -21
  -14
  -4
  7
  22
  39
  59
  82
  108
  137
  169
  204
  242
  284
  328
  375
  424
  476
  531
  589
  649
  712
  777
  845
  916
  989
  1,066
  1,145
  1,228
  1,314
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  53
  59
  66
  73
  81
  89
  97
  105
  114
  123
  133
  142
  153
  163
Earnings before tax, $m
  -30
  -27
  -22
  -17
  -10
  -2
  8
  19
  32
  46
  62
  79
  98
  118
  139
  162
  186
  211
  238
  266
  295
  325
  357
  390
  424
  460
  497
  536
  576
  618
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  5
  9
  12
  17
  21
  26
  32
  38
  44
  50
  57
  64
  72
  80
  88
  96
  105
  115
  124
  134
  145
  155
  167
Net income, $m
  -30
  -27
  -22
  -17
  -10
  -2
  6
  14
  23
  33
  45
  58
  71
  86
  102
  118
  136
  154
  174
  194
  215
  237
  261
  285
  310
  336
  363
  391
  420
  451

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  116
  159
  214
  281
  363
  458
  570
  697
  841
  1,001
  1,178
  1,371
  1,581
  1,805
  2,046
  2,301
  2,571
  2,855
  3,153
  3,465
  3,791
  4,132
  4,486
  4,855
  5,238
  5,636
  6,050
  6,480
  6,928
  7,392
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  116
  159
  214
  281
  363
  458
  570
  697
  841
  1,001
  1,178
  1,371
  1,581
  1,805
  2,046
  2,301
  2,571
  2,855
  3,153
  3,465
  3,791
  4,132
  4,486
  4,855
  5,238
  5,636
  6,050
  6,480
  6,928
  7,392
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.586
  0.591
  0.593
  0.591
  0.590
  0.592
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
Average production assets, $m
  42
  57
  77
  101
  131
  165
  205
  251
  303
  361
  425
  494
  570
  651
  737
  829
  927
  1,029
  1,137
  1,249
  1,367
  1,489
  1,617
  1,750
  1,888
  2,032
  2,181
  2,336
  2,497
  2,665
Working capital, $m
  8
  11
  15
  19
  25
  32
  39
  48
  58
  69
  81
  95
  109
  125
  141
  159
  178
  197
  218
  240
  262
  286
  310
  336
  362
  390
  418
  448
  479
  511
Total debt, $m
  15
  34
  59
  88
  124
  167
  216
  272
  336
  407
  485
  570
  663
  762
  868
  981
  1,100
  1,226
  1,358
  1,496
  1,640
  1,790
  1,947
  2,110
  2,279
  2,455
  2,638
  2,828
  3,026
  3,231
Total liabilities, $m
  51
  70
  95
  124
  160
  203
  252
  308
  372
  443
  521
  606
  699
  798
  904
  1,017
  1,136
  1,262
  1,394
  1,532
  1,676
  1,826
  1,983
  2,146
  2,315
  2,491
  2,674
  2,864
  3,062
  3,267
Total equity, $m
  65
  89
  119
  157
  202
  256
  318
  389
  469
  559
  657
  765
  882
  1,007
  1,141
  1,284
  1,434
  1,593
  1,759
  1,934
  2,116
  2,305
  2,503
  2,709
  2,923
  3,145
  3,376
  3,616
  3,866
  4,125
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  116
  159
  214
  281
  362
  459
  570
  697
  841
  1,002
  1,178
  1,371
  1,581
  1,805
  2,045
  2,301
  2,570
  2,855
  3,153
  3,466
  3,792
  4,131
  4,486
  4,855
  5,238
  5,636
  6,050
  6,480
  6,928
  7,392
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.240
  0.390
  0.490
  0.560
  0.610
  0.650
  0.680
  0.700
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -30
  -27
  -22
  -17
  -10
  -2
  6
  14
  23
  33
  45
  58
  71
  86
  102
  118
  136
  154
  174
  194
  215
  237
  261
  285
  310
  336
  363
  391
  420
  451
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  12
  16
  21
  27
  34
  42
  51
  61
  73
  85
  99
  114
  130
  147
  166
  185
  206
  227
  250
  273
  298
  323
  350
  378
  406
  436
  467
  499
  533
Funds from operations, $m
  -21
  -15
  -6
  4
  17
  32
  47
  65
  84
  106
  130
  157
  185
  216
  249
  284
  321
  360
  401
  444
  489
  535
  584
  635
  687
  742
  799
  858
  920
  984
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
Cash from operations, $m
  -23
  -18
  -10
  -1
  11
  25
  40
  56
  74
  95
  118
  143
  171
  201
  232
  266
  302
  340
  380
  422
  466
  512
  559
  609
  661
  715
  770
  829
  889
  952
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -20
  -26
  -33
  -41
  -50
  -61
  -72
  -85
  -99
  -114
  -130
  -147
  -166
  -185
  -206
  -227
  -250
  -273
  -298
  -323
  -350
  -378
  -406
  -436
  -467
  -499
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -64
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -18
  -24
  -31
  -39
  -49
  -61
  -73
  -87
  -102
  -119
  -136
  -155
  -174
  -195
  -217
  -239
  -263
  -287
  -314
  -340
  -368
  -396
  -426
  -456
  -488
  -522
  -555
  -591
  -628
  -667
Free cash flow, $m
  -42
  -42
  -41
  -40
  -38
  -35
  -33
  -31
  -28
  -23
  -18
  -11
  -3
  6
  16
  27
  39
  53
  67
  82
  99
  116
  134
  153
  173
  193
  215
  237
  260
  285
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  19
  24
  30
  36
  42
  49
  56
  64
  71
  78
  85
  92
  99
  106
  113
  119
  126
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  205
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  49
  51
  53
  54
  55
  55
  56
  57
  57
  56
  53
  50
  45
  40
  33
  24
  15
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  64
  70
  77
  84
  91
  97
  105
  113
  121
  127
  131
  135
  137
  139
  139
  137
  134
  130
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  205
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  23
  29
  36
  44
  53
  62
  72
  82
  93
  104
  114
  124
  134
  144
  154
  164
  173
  183
  199
  220
  243
  266
  290
  316
  342
  369
  398
  427
  458
  490
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -55
  -62
  -71
  -80
  -89
  -99
  -108
  -117
  -125
  -134
  -142
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -222
  -231
  -240
  -250
  -259
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -20
  -22
  -17
  -10
  -2
  7
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  32
  46
  61
  76
  93
  110
  128
  147
  167
  187
  209
  231
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -19
  -21
  -15
  -9
  -2
  5
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  79.8
  67.4
  59.2
  53.5
  49.5
  46.5
  44.3
  42.5
  41.1
  40.0
  39.1
  38.4
  37.9
  37.5
  37.2
  37.0
  36.9
  36.9
  36.9
  36.9
  36.9
  36.9
  36.9
  36.9
  36.9
  36.9
  36.9
  36.9
  36.9
  36.9

American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC) is a provider of megawatt-scale solutions. The Company operates through two segments: Wind and Grid. Through the Company's Windtec Solutions brand, the Wind business segment enables manufacturers to field wind turbines. Through the Company's Gridtec Solutions, the Grid business segment enables electric utilities and renewable energy project developers to connect, transmit and distribute power. AMSC supplies power electronics and control systems, licenses its engineered wind turbine designs and provides customer support services to wind turbine manufacturers. The Company provides a range of power electronics and software-based control systems. AMSC provides transmission planning services that enable it to identify power grid congestion and other risks. The Company also sells grid interconnection solutions for wind farms and solar power plants, power quality systems, and transmission and distribution cable systems.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Superconductor (AMSC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -5.8
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -14.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -13
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -21.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 27
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 1.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -23%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.6%
Return On Total Capital -36.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.1%
Return On Equity -37.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -38.9%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
EBITDA Margin -24%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -30%
Operating Margin -37.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -43.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -34.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -41.9%
Net Profit Margin -36%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -43%
Effective Tax Rate -3.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMSC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMSC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $48.403 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Superconductor. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of American Superconductor. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMSC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 41.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AMSC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Superconductor, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Superconductor.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMSC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $42 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMSC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for American Superconductor.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Superconductor. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMSC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMSC are equal to 61%.

Life of production assets of 2.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Superconductor operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMSC is equal to 11.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $52.229 million for American Superconductor - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.937 million for American Superconductor is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Superconductor at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ American Superconductor: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-31-18 06:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ AMSC Announces $11 Million in D-VAR® System Orders   [Jul-18-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Apple self-driving car secrets allegedly stolen   [Jul-10-18 04:27AM  Financial Times]
▶ AMSC Announces Settlement with Sinovel Wind Group   [Jul-03-18 07:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Business Highlights   [03:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ American Superconductor: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jun-06-18 04:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ GE, Teradyne urge Trump administration to ditch Chinese tariffs   [May-16-18 02:59PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 5 Stocks That Would Benefit From a China-U.S. Trade Deal   [Apr-13-18 11:42AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ [$$] Burner Phones, Bug Sweeps: How Companies Cope with IP Theft in China   [Mar-18-18 11:54PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ AMSC Announces $10 Million in D-VAR® System Orders   [Feb-21-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ American Superconductor posts 3Q loss   [Feb-05-18 04:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ AMSC Provides Update on Landmark Conviction of Sinovel   [Jan-29-18 02:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Trial Over Theft of Wind Technology Spotlights U.S.-China Tensions   [Jan-08-18 12:12AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Trial Over Theft of Wind Technology Spotlights U.S.-China Tensions   [Jan-06-18 07:00AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ AMSC Announces $8 Million in D-VAR® System Orders   [Nov-29-17 09:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ American Superconductor posts 2Q loss   [Nov-07-17 07:09PM  Associated Press]
▶ AMSC Acquires Infinia Technology Corporation   [Sep-26-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ American Superconductor posts 1Q loss   [Aug-08-17 11:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ American Superconductor posts 4Q loss   [May-25-17 08:50AM  Associated Press]
▶ AMSC Prices $16 Million Public Offering of Common Stock   [May-05-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ AMSC Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock   [May-04-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]

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