Intrinsic value of Aemetis, Inc - AMTX

Previous Close

$0.79

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$0.79

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMTX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.60
  13.64
  12.78
  12.00
  11.30
  10.67
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
Revenue, $m
  172
  195
  220
  247
  275
  304
  335
  367
  400
  435
  471
  509
  548
  589
  632
  676
  722
  769
  819
  870
  924
  980
  1,038
  1,099
  1,162
  1,228
  1,297
  1,369
  1,445
  1,524
Variable operating expenses, $m
  179
  202
  227
  253
  281
  310
  341
  373
  406
  441
  469
  506
  545
  586
  628
  672
  717
  765
  814
  865
  919
  974
  1,032
  1,093
  1,156
  1,221
  1,290
  1,362
  1,437
  1,515
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  179
  202
  227
  253
  281
  310
  341
  373
  406
  441
  469
  506
  545
  586
  628
  672
  717
  765
  814
  865
  919
  974
  1,032
  1,093
  1,156
  1,221
  1,290
  1,362
  1,437
  1,515
Operating income, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
EBITDA, $m
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  16
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
Earnings before tax, $m
  -23
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -23
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  108
  123
  139
  155
  173
  191
  210
  231
  252
  274
  296
  320
  345
  371
  397
  425
  454
  484
  515
  547
  581
  616
  653
  691
  731
  773
  816
  861
  909
  958
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  108
  123
  139
  155
  173
  191
  210
  231
  252
  274
  296
  320
  345
  371
  397
  425
  454
  484
  515
  547
  581
  616
  653
  691
  731
  773
  816
  861
  909
  958
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.593
  1.585
  1.583
  1.594
  1.590
  1.592
  1.595
  1.589
  1.587
  1.588
  1.591
  1.591
  1.588
  1.588
  1.592
  1.591
  1.590
  1.589
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.591
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.589
  1.589
  1.590
  1.590
  1.591
Average production assets, $m
  83
  95
  107
  119
  133
  147
  162
  177
  194
  211
  228
  246
  265
  285
  306
  327
  349
  372
  396
  421
  447
  474
  502
  532
  562
  594
  628
  663
  699
  737
Working capital, $m
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -94
Total debt, $m
  78
  92
  106
  121
  137
  153
  170
  189
  208
  227
  248
  269
  292
  315
  339
  364
  389
  416
  444
  474
  504
  536
  569
  603
  639
  676
  715
  756
  799
  843
Total liabilities, $m
  97
  111
  125
  140
  155
  172
  189
  208
  227
  246
  267
  288
  310
  334
  358
  382
  408
  435
  463
  493
  523
  555
  588
  622
  658
  695
  734
  775
  818
  862
Total equity, $m
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  108
  123
  139
  156
  172
  191
  210
  231
  252
  273
  297
  320
  344
  371
  398
  424
  453
  483
  514
  548
  581
  617
  653
  691
  731
  772
  816
  861
  909
  958
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.250
  7.460
  7.630
  7.780
  7.900
  8.010
  8.100
  8.180
  8.250
  8.310
  8.360
  8.410
  8.450
  8.490
  8.520
  8.550
  8.580
  8.610
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
  8.690
  8.710
  8.730
  8.740
  8.750
  8.770
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -23
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
Funds from operations, $m
  -10
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  -9
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -83
Free cash flow, $m
  -24
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -75
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  112
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  23
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  37
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  91
  97
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -112
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -99
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
Discount rate, %
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
  32.85
  34.49
  36.21
  38.02
  39.93
  41.92
  44.02
  46.22
  48.53
  50.96
  53.50
  56.18
  58.99
  61.94
  65.03
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -86
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  19.8
  8.1
  3.4
  1.4
  0.6
  0.3
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
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Aemetis, Inc. is an international renewable fuels and biochemicals company. The Company is focused on the production of fuels and chemicals through the acquisition, development and commercialization of technologies that replace traditional petroleum-based products by conversion of first-generation ethanol and biodiesel plants into biorefineries. Its segments include North America and India. The North America segment includes the Company's approximately 60 million gallon per year capacity ethanol manufacturing plant in Keyes, California and its technology lab in College Park, Maryland. The India segment includes the Company's over 50 million gallon per year capacity biodiesel manufacturing plant in Kakinada, the administrative offices in Hyderabad, India, and the holding companies in Nevada and Mauritius. The Keyes plant produces denatured ethanol, Wet Distillers Grains, corn oil and Condensed Distillers Solubles. It produces biodiesel and refined glycerin at the Kakinada plant.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Aemetis, Inc (AMTX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book -0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow -15.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -202%
Total Debt to Equity -230%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -13.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -10%
Return On Total Capital -23.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.3%
Return On Equity 37.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 8.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
EBITDA Margin -4.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.3%
Operating Margin 0.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Net Profit Margin -11.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMTX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMTX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $150 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Aemetis, Inc. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Aemetis, Inc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMTX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 15.8%, whose default value for AMTX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Aemetis, Inc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Aemetis, Inc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMTX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 104.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMTX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.5% for Aemetis, Inc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Aemetis, Inc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMTX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMTX are equal to 48.4%.

Life of production assets of 15.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Aemetis, Inc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMTX is equal to -6.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-78.392 million for Aemetis, Inc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.340 million for Aemetis, Inc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Aemetis, Inc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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