Intrinsic value of Arista Networks, Inc. - ANET

Previous Close

$274.26

  Intrinsic Value

$337.11

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+23%

Previous close

$274.26

 
Intrinsic value

$337.11

 
Up/down potential

+23%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ANET stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 20.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  27.30
  25.07
  23.06
  21.26
  19.63
  18.17
  16.85
  15.67
  14.60
  13.64
  12.78
  12.00
  11.30
  10.67
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
Revenue, $m
  2,738
  3,425
  4,215
  5,110
  6,114
  7,224
  8,442
  9,764
  11,190
  12,716
  14,340
  16,061
  17,876
  19,783
  21,781
  23,870
  26,050
  28,321
  30,685
  33,144
  35,700
  38,356
  41,116
  43,984
  46,966
  50,066
  53,291
  56,646
  60,140
  63,779
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,955
  2,442
  3,003
  3,639
  4,351
  5,139
  6,003
  6,942
  7,954
  9,037
  10,179
  11,400
  12,688
  14,042
  15,460
  16,943
  18,490
  20,102
  21,780
  23,525
  25,339
  27,225
  29,184
  31,220
  33,336
  35,537
  37,825
  40,207
  42,687
  45,270
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,955
  2,442
  3,003
  3,639
  4,351
  5,139
  6,003
  6,942
  7,954
  9,037
  10,179
  11,400
  12,688
  14,042
  15,460
  16,943
  18,490
  20,102
  21,780
  23,525
  25,339
  27,225
  29,184
  31,220
  33,336
  35,537
  37,825
  40,207
  42,687
  45,270
Operating income, $m
  783
  983
  1,212
  1,472
  1,763
  2,085
  2,439
  2,822
  3,236
  3,679
  4,162
  4,661
  5,188
  5,741
  6,321
  6,927
  7,560
  8,219
  8,905
  9,619
  10,360
  11,131
  11,932
  12,765
  13,630
  14,530
  15,465
  16,439
  17,453
  18,509
EBITDA, $m
  821
  1,027
  1,264
  1,532
  1,833
  2,166
  2,531
  2,927
  3,355
  3,812
  4,299
  4,815
  5,359
  5,931
  6,530
  7,156
  7,810
  8,491
  9,200
  9,937
  10,703
  11,499
  12,327
  13,187
  14,081
  15,010
  15,977
  16,983
  18,030
  19,121
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  22
  44
  69
  98
  131
  166
  206
  248
  295
  344
  396
  452
  510
  572
  637
  704
  774
  848
  924
  1,003
  1,086
  1,172
  1,261
  1,354
  1,450
  1,550
  1,654
  1,762
  1,875
Earnings before tax, $m
  781
  961
  1,168
  1,403
  1,665
  1,955
  2,272
  2,617
  2,988
  3,385
  3,818
  4,265
  4,736
  5,231
  5,749
  6,291
  6,856
  7,445
  8,057
  8,695
  9,357
  10,045
  10,760
  11,504
  12,276
  13,080
  13,915
  14,785
  15,691
  16,634
Tax expense, $m
  211
  259
  315
  379
  450
  528
  613
  707
  807
  914
  1,031
  1,151
  1,279
  1,412
  1,552
  1,699
  1,851
  2,010
  2,175
  2,348
  2,526
  2,712
  2,905
  3,106
  3,315
  3,532
  3,757
  3,992
  4,236
  4,491
Net income, $m
  570
  702
  853
  1,024
  1,215
  1,427
  1,659
  1,910
  2,181
  2,471
  2,787
  3,113
  3,457
  3,818
  4,197
  4,592
  5,005
  5,435
  5,882
  6,347
  6,830
  7,333
  7,855
  8,398
  8,962
  9,548
  10,158
  10,793
  11,454
  12,143

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,205
  2,757
  3,393
  4,115
  4,922
  5,817
  6,797
  7,862
  9,009
  10,238
  11,546
  12,932
  14,393
  15,928
  17,537
  19,219
  20,974
  22,803
  24,706
  26,686
  28,744
  30,882
  33,105
  35,414
  37,815
  40,311
  42,907
  45,609
  48,422
  51,351
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,205
  2,757
  3,393
  4,115
  4,922
  5,817
  6,797
  7,862
  9,009
  10,238
  11,546
  12,932
  14,393
  15,928
  17,537
  19,219
  20,974
  22,803
  24,706
  26,686
  28,744
  30,882
  33,105
  35,414
  37,815
  40,311
  42,907
  45,609
  48,422
  51,351
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
  1.242
Average production assets, $m
  131
  164
  202
  245
  293
  347
  405
  469
  537
  610
  688
  771
  858
  950
  1,045
  1,146
  1,250
  1,359
  1,473
  1,591
  1,714
  1,841
  1,974
  2,111
  2,254
  2,403
  2,558
  2,719
  2,887
  3,061
Working capital, $m
  194
  243
  299
  363
  434
  513
  599
  693
  794
  903
  1,018
  1,140
  1,269
  1,405
  1,546
  1,695
  1,850
  2,011
  2,179
  2,353
  2,535
  2,723
  2,919
  3,123
  3,335
  3,555
  3,784
  4,022
  4,270
  4,528
Total debt, $m
  292
  591
  936
  1,327
  1,765
  2,249
  2,781
  3,358
  3,980
  4,646
  5,355
  6,106
  6,898
  7,730
  8,602
  9,514
  10,465
  11,456
  12,488
  13,561
  14,676
  15,835
  17,040
  18,291
  19,592
  20,945
  22,353
  23,817
  25,341
  26,929
Total liabilities, $m
  1,195
  1,495
  1,839
  2,230
  2,668
  3,153
  3,684
  4,261
  4,883
  5,549
  6,258
  7,009
  7,801
  8,633
  9,505
  10,417
  11,368
  12,359
  13,391
  14,464
  15,579
  16,738
  17,943
  19,194
  20,496
  21,849
  23,256
  24,720
  26,245
  27,833
Total equity, $m
  1,010
  1,263
  1,554
  1,885
  2,254
  2,664
  3,113
  3,601
  4,126
  4,689
  5,288
  5,923
  6,592
  7,295
  8,032
  8,802
  9,606
  10,444
  11,316
  12,222
  13,165
  14,144
  15,162
  16,220
  17,319
  18,462
  19,652
  20,889
  22,177
  23,519
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,205
  2,758
  3,393
  4,115
  4,922
  5,817
  6,797
  7,862
  9,009
  10,238
  11,546
  12,932
  14,393
  15,928
  17,537
  19,219
  20,974
  22,803
  24,707
  26,686
  28,744
  30,882
  33,105
  35,414
  37,815
  40,311
  42,908
  45,609
  48,422
  51,352
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.290
  0.470
  0.600
  0.700
  0.780
  0.840
  0.890
  0.930
  0.960
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  570
  702
  853
  1,024
  1,215
  1,427
  1,659
  1,910
  2,181
  2,471
  2,787
  3,113
  3,457
  3,818
  4,197
  4,592
  5,005
  5,435
  5,882
  6,347
  6,830
  7,333
  7,855
  8,398
  8,962
  9,548
  10,158
  10,793
  11,454
  12,143
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  37
  44
  52
  60
  70
  81
  92
  105
  119
  133
  138
  154
  172
  190
  209
  229
  250
  272
  295
  318
  343
  368
  395
  422
  451
  481
  512
  544
  577
  612
Funds from operations, $m
  607
  746
  904
  1,084
  1,285
  1,508
  1,751
  2,015
  2,300
  2,604
  2,925
  3,267
  3,629
  4,008
  4,406
  4,821
  5,255
  5,706
  6,176
  6,665
  7,173
  7,701
  8,250
  8,820
  9,413
  10,029
  10,670
  11,337
  12,031
  12,755
Change in working capital, $m
  42
  49
  56
  64
  71
  79
  86
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
  129
  135
  142
  148
  155
  161
  168
  175
  181
  189
  196
  204
  212
  220
  229
  238
  248
  258
Cash from operations, $m
  566
  697
  848
  1,021
  1,214
  1,429
  1,665
  1,921
  2,198
  2,496
  2,809
  3,145
  3,500
  3,873
  4,264
  4,673
  5,100
  5,545
  6,009
  6,491
  6,992
  7,513
  8,054
  8,616
  9,201
  9,809
  10,441
  11,099
  11,783
  12,497
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -26
  -33
  -40
  -49
  -59
  -69
  -81
  -94
  -107
  -122
  -138
  -154
  -172
  -190
  -209
  -229
  -250
  -272
  -295
  -318
  -343
  -368
  -395
  -422
  -451
  -481
  -512
  -544
  -577
New CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -175
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -50
  -59
  -71
  -83
  -97
  -112
  -127
  -144
  -162
  -180
  -200
  -221
  -241
  -264
  -286
  -309
  -334
  -359
  -385
  -413
  -441
  -470
  -500
  -533
  -565
  -600
  -636
  -673
  -712
  -752
Free cash flow, $m
  517
  638
  778
  937
  1,117
  1,317
  1,537
  1,777
  2,036
  2,315
  2,609
  2,925
  3,259
  3,610
  3,978
  4,364
  4,766
  5,186
  5,623
  6,078
  6,551
  7,042
  7,553
  8,084
  8,636
  9,209
  9,805
  10,426
  11,072
  11,745
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  256
  300
  345
  391
  438
  485
  531
  577
  622
  666
  709
  751
  792
  832
  872
  912
  951
  991
  1,032
  1,073
  1,115
  1,159
  1,204
  1,252
  1,301
  1,353
  1,407
  1,464
  1,525
  1,588
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  256
  300
  345
  391
  438
  485
  531
  577
  622
  666
  709
  751
  792
  832
  872
  912
  951
  991
  1,032
  1,073
  1,115
  1,159
  1,204
  1,252
  1,301
  1,353
  1,407
  1,464
  1,525
  1,588
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  773
  937
  1,122
  1,328
  1,555
  1,801
  2,068
  2,354
  2,658
  2,981
  3,318
  3,676
  4,051
  4,442
  4,850
  5,275
  5,718
  6,177
  6,655
  7,151
  7,666
  8,201
  8,758
  9,336
  9,937
  10,562
  11,213
  11,890
  12,596
  13,332
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -216
  -253
  -291
  -330
  -370
  -410
  -449
  -488
  -526
  -563
  -599
  -634
  -669
  -703
  -737
  -770
  -804
  -838
  -872
  -907
  -942
  -979
  -1,018
  -1,058
  -1,099
  -1,143
  -1,189
  -1,237
  -1,288
  -1,342
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1,350
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,907
  684
  831
  998
  1,185
  1,392
  1,619
  1,866
  2,133
  2,418
  2,719
  3,041
  3,381
  3,739
  4,113
  4,505
  4,914
  5,340
  5,783
  6,244
  6,724
  7,222
  7,740
  8,278
  8,837
  9,419
  10,024
  10,653
  11,308
  11,991
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,828
  626
  723
  821
  918
  1,010
  1,094
  1,166
  1,225
  1,268
  1,291
  1,298
  1,286
  1,255
  1,208
  1,145
  1,069
  983
  890
  793
  695
  599
  507
  422
  344
  275
  215
  165
  123
  90
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Arista Networks, Inc. is a supplier of cloud networking solutions that use software innovations to address the needs of Internet companies, cloud service providers and data centers for enterprise support. It develops, markets and sells cloud networking solutions, which consist of its Gigabit Ethernet switches and related software. The Company's cloud networking solutions consist of its Extensible Operating System (EOS), a set of network applications and its Ethernet switching and routing platforms. The programmability of EOS has allowed it to create a set of software applications that address the requirements of cloud networking, including workflow automation, network visibility and analytics, and has also allowed it to integrate with a range of third-party applications for virtualization, management, automation, orchestration and network services. EOS supports cloud and virtualization solutions, including VMware NSX, Microsoft System Center and other cloud management frameworks.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 105.5
Price to Sales 17.2
Price to Book 17.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 148.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 176.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 34.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 3.6%
Total Debt to Equity 3.6%
Interest Coverage 82
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Return On Total Capital 18.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Return On Equity 19.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.4%
EBITDA Margin 23.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Operating Margin 21.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Net Profit Margin 16.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Effective Tax Rate 24%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

ANET stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ANET stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2151 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Arista Networks, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Arista Networks, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ANET stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ANET is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Arista Networks, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Arista Networks, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ANET stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ANET stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.4% for Arista Networks, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Arista Networks, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ANET stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ANET are equal to 4.8%.

Life of production assets of 4.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Arista Networks, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ANET is equal to 7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2143.389 million for Arista Networks, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 75.718 million for Arista Networks, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Arista Networks, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $20.8 billion.

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