Intrinsic value of Abercrombie&Fitch - ANF

Previous Close

$26.16

  Intrinsic Value

$4.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

Previous close

$26.16

 
Intrinsic value

$4.57

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ANF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,394
  3,472
  3,561
  3,661
  3,772
  3,894
  4,026
  4,170
  4,325
  4,491
  4,668
  4,858
  5,059
  5,274
  5,501
  5,742
  5,997
  6,267
  6,552
  6,853
  7,171
  7,506
  7,859
  8,231
  8,623
  9,036
  9,470
  9,927
  10,408
  10,913
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,375
  2,430
  2,493
  2,563
  2,640
  2,726
  2,818
  2,919
  3,027
  3,143
  3,268
  3,400
  3,541
  3,692
  3,851
  4,020
  4,198
  4,387
  4,587
  4,797
  5,020
  5,254
  5,501
  5,762
  6,036
  6,325
  6,629
  6,949
  7,285
  7,639
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  1,026
  1,049
  1,072
  1,095
  1,119
  1,144
  1,169
  1,195
  1,221
  1,248
  1,276
  1,304
  1,332
  1,362
  1,392
  1,422
  1,453
  1,485
  1,518
  1,551
  1,586
  1,621
  1,656
  1,693
  1,730
  1,768
  1,807
  1,847
  1,887
  1,929
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,401
  3,479
  3,565
  3,658
  3,759
  3,870
  3,987
  4,114
  4,248
  4,391
  4,544
  4,704
  4,873
  5,054
  5,243
  5,442
  5,651
  5,872
  6,105
  6,348
  6,606
  6,875
  7,157
  7,455
  7,766
  8,093
  8,436
  8,796
  9,172
  9,568
Operating income, $m
  -8
  -7
  -3
  3
  12
  24
  39
  56
  76
  99
  125
  154
  185
  220
  259
  300
  346
  395
  448
  505
  566
  631
  702
  777
  857
  943
  1,034
  1,132
  1,235
  1,345
EBITDA, $m
  80
  82
  88
  97
  109
  125
  143
  164
  188
  215
  245
  279
  316
  357
  401
  449
  500
  556
  617
  681
  751
  825
  904
  989
  1,080
  1,176
  1,279
  1,388
  1,504
  1,627
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  88
  95
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
Earnings before tax, $m
  -26
  -26
  -24
  -19
  -12
  -2
  10
  25
  43
  63
  86
  111
  139
  171
  205
  243
  284
  328
  376
  427
  483
  543
  607
  676
  749
  828
  912
  1,001
  1,096
  1,198
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  3
  7
  12
  17
  23
  30
  38
  46
  55
  66
  77
  89
  101
  115
  130
  147
  164
  182
  202
  223
  246
  270
  296
  323
Net income, $m
  -26
  -26
  -24
  -19
  -12
  -2
  8
  18
  31
  46
  62
  81
  102
  125
  150
  177
  207
  239
  274
  312
  353
  396
  443
  493
  547
  604
  665
  731
  800
  874

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,279
  2,331
  2,391
  2,459
  2,533
  2,615
  2,704
  2,800
  2,904
  3,016
  3,135
  3,262
  3,398
  3,542
  3,694
  3,856
  4,028
  4,209
  4,401
  4,603
  4,816
  5,041
  5,278
  5,528
  5,791
  6,068
  6,360
  6,667
  6,990
  7,329
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,279
  2,331
  2,391
  2,459
  2,533
  2,615
  2,704
  2,800
  2,904
  3,016
  3,135
  3,262
  3,398
  3,542
  3,694
  3,856
  4,028
  4,209
  4,401
  4,603
  4,816
  5,041
  5,278
  5,528
  5,791
  6,068
  6,360
  6,667
  6,990
  7,329
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
  1.489
Average production assets, $m
  876
  896
  919
  945
  973
  1,005
  1,039
  1,076
  1,116
  1,159
  1,204
  1,253
  1,305
  1,361
  1,419
  1,481
  1,547
  1,617
  1,691
  1,768
  1,850
  1,937
  2,028
  2,124
  2,225
  2,331
  2,443
  2,561
  2,685
  2,816
Working capital, $m
  217
  222
  228
  234
  241
  249
  258
  267
  277
  287
  299
  311
  324
  338
  352
  367
  384
  401
  419
  439
  459
  480
  503
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  666
  698
Total debt, $m
  330
  355
  383
  415
  450
  488
  530
  576
  625
  677
  733
  793
  857
  925
  997
  1,073
  1,154
  1,239
  1,329
  1,425
  1,525
  1,631
  1,743
  1,860
  1,984
  2,115
  2,252
  2,397
  2,549
  2,709
Total liabilities, $m
  1,073
  1,098
  1,126
  1,158
  1,193
  1,232
  1,274
  1,319
  1,368
  1,420
  1,477
  1,537
  1,600
  1,668
  1,740
  1,816
  1,897
  1,982
  2,073
  2,168
  2,268
  2,374
  2,486
  2,604
  2,728
  2,858
  2,996
  3,140
  3,292
  3,452
Total equity, $m
  1,206
  1,233
  1,265
  1,301
  1,340
  1,383
  1,430
  1,481
  1,536
  1,595
  1,658
  1,726
  1,797
  1,874
  1,954
  2,040
  2,131
  2,227
  2,328
  2,435
  2,548
  2,667
  2,792
  2,924
  3,064
  3,210
  3,364
  3,527
  3,698
  3,877
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,279
  2,331
  2,391
  2,459
  2,533
  2,615
  2,704
  2,800
  2,904
  3,015
  3,135
  3,263
  3,397
  3,542
  3,694
  3,856
  4,028
  4,209
  4,401
  4,603
  4,816
  5,041
  5,278
  5,528
  5,792
  6,068
  6,360
  6,667
  6,990
  7,329
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -26
  -26
  -24
  -19
  -12
  -2
  8
  18
  31
  46
  62
  81
  102
  125
  150
  177
  207
  239
  274
  312
  353
  396
  443
  493
  547
  604
  665
  731
  800
  874
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  88
  90
  92
  94
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  120
  125
  131
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
Funds from operations, $m
  62
  63
  68
  75
  85
  98
  111
  126
  143
  162
  183
  206
  232
  261
  292
  325
  362
  401
  443
  489
  538
  590
  646
  706
  769
  837
  910
  987
  1,069
  1,156
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
Cash from operations, $m
  57
  58
  62
  69
  78
  91
  103
  117
  133
  151
  172
  194
  219
  247
  277
  310
  345
  384
  425
  470
  517
  569
  623
  682
  744
  811
  882
  958
  1,038
  1,123
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -92
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -269
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -271
  -285
  -299
  -313
  -328
  -345
  -362
  -380
  -399
Free cash flow, $m
  -45
  -49
  -50
  -49
  -45
  -38
  -32
  -24
  -15
  -3
  10
  25
  42
  61
  82
  106
  131
  159
  190
  223
  259
  297
  339
  383
  431
  482
  537
  595
  658
  724
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  21
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  137
  145
  152
  160
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  50
  54
  56
  55
  51
  45
  40
  33
  24
  13
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  71
  79
  84
  87
  86
  84
  82
  78
  73
  65
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  137
  145
  152
  160
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  26
  29
  33
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  85
  106
  129
  154
  182
  212
  245
  280
  318
  359
  403
  450
  501
  555
  613
  674
  740
  810
  884
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -50
  -54
  -56
  -55
  -51
  -45
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
Cash available for distribution, $m
  37
  -25
  -22
  -17
  -10
  0
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  18
  34
  53
  74
  96
  121
  149
  179
  211
  246
  284
  325
  369
  416
  466
  520
  578
  639
  705
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  36
  -23
  -19
  -14
  -7
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  8
  13
  18
  22
  24
  26
  27
  28
  27
  25
  24
  21
  19
  16
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.1
  94.2
  91.3
  88.6
  86.2
  84.3
  82.6
  81.3
  80.4
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9
  79.9

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. is a specialty retailer who primarily sells its products through store and direct-to-consumer operations, as well as through various wholesale, franchise and licensing arrangements. The Company operates through two segments: Abercrombie, which includes the Company's Abercrombie & Fitch and abercrombie kids brands, and Hollister, which includes the Company's Hollister and Gilly Hicks brands. The Company offers an array of apparel products, including knit tops, woven shirts, graphic t-shirts, fleece, sweaters, jeans, woven pants, shorts, outerwear, dresses, intimates and swimwear, and personal care products and accessories for men, women and kids under the Abercrombie & Fitch, abercrombie kids, Hollister and Gilly Hicks brands. The Company has operations in North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East. As of January 28, 2017, the Company operated 709 stores in the United States and 189 stores outside of the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Abercrombie&Fitch (ANF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 443.2
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 40.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 21.2%
Total Debt to Equity 21.2%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Total Capital 0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Equity 0.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.4%
EBITDA Margin 6.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Operating Margin 0.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Net Profit Margin 0.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Effective Tax Rate 366.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 147.7%
Payout Ratio 1350%

ANF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ANF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3327 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Abercrombie&Fitch. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Abercrombie&Fitch. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ANF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ANF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Abercrombie&Fitch, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Abercrombie&Fitch.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ANF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 70%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1004 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ANF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.8% for Abercrombie&Fitch.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Abercrombie&Fitch. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ANF stock is equal to 0.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ANF are equal to 25.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Abercrombie&Fitch operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ANF is equal to 6.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1243 million for Abercrombie&Fitch - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 68 million for Abercrombie&Fitch is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Abercrombie&Fitch at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Abercrombie teaming up with hotel/restaurant operator   [Jul-12-18 06:30AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ sbe and Abercrombie & Fitch sign global partnership   [Jul-11-18 11:54AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Abercrombie & Fitch coming to Gateway as it secures its first college campus stores   [Jun-29-18 09:29AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Why I Was Wrong About Abercrombie & Fitch   [07:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Abercrombie partnering with music festival, bringing musicians for its own event   [Jun-13-18 02:52PM  American City Business Journals]
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▶ Abercrombie: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:37AM  Associated Press]
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▶ Abercrombie & Fitch Going Sideways   [May-21-18 12:01PM  TheStreet.com]
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▶ Abercrombie & Fitch Is Losing Affluent Teen Shoppers   [May-10-18 08:46AM  Motley Fool]
▶ How Abercrombie & Fitch plans to grow into a $5 billion company   [04:26PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 3 Red-Hot Retail Stocks to Trade Today!   [Apr-23-18 11:32AM  InvestorPlace]
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▶ Dont Expect Gap Inc Stock to Gap Higher Anytime Soon   [Mar-19-18 03:25PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Is Abercrombie & Fitch a Great Retail Comeback Play?   [Mar-16-18 10:45AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Did Columbus' big retail brands satisfy customers last year?   [Mar-15-18 01:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Should Abercrombie Bow Out While It's Still Ahead?   [Mar-09-18 09:35AM  TheStreet.com]
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