Intrinsic value of Anika Therapeutics - ANIK

Previous Close

$59.03

  Intrinsic Value

$42.94

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-27%

Previous close

$59.03

 
Intrinsic value

$42.94

 
Up/down potential

-27%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ANIK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.75
  3.80
  3.92
  4.03
  4.13
  4.21
  4.29
  4.36
  4.43
  4.48
  4.54
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.73
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
Revenue, $m
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  187
  195
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  272
  285
  299
  314
  329
  345
  362
  380
  399
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  53
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
Operating income, $m
  51
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
EBITDA, $m
  55
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  159
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  211
  222
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
Earnings before tax, $m
  51
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
Tax expense, $m
  18
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
Net income, $m
  33
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  131
  137
  144
  151

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  125
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  240
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  239
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  318
  334
  350
  367
  385
  404
  424
  445
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  239
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  318
  334
  350
  367
  385
  404
  424
  445
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.896
  0.899
  0.895
  0.899
  0.896
  0.893
  0.897
  0.901
  0.899
  0.898
  0.897
  0.896
  0.895
  0.894
  0.899
  0.894
  0.895
  0.900
  0.896
  0.897
  0.895
  0.896
  0.898
  0.896
  0.895
  0.897
  0.896
  0.896
  0.896
  0.896
  0.897
Average production assets, $m
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  158
  165
  173
  182
  191
  200
  210
  221
Working capital, $m
  161
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
Total liabilities, $m
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
Total equity, $m
  223
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  177
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  235
  246
  258
  271
  284
  298
  313
  328
  344
  361
  379
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  240
  120
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  239
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  318
  333
  350
  367
  385
  404
  424
  445
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  33
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  131
  137
  144
  151
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
Funds from operations, $m
  8
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  67
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  136
  142
  149
  157
  165
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Cash from operations, $m
  24
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  158
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -23
Free cash flow, $m
  17
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -25
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -23
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
  138
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  125
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  160
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  153
  33
  32
  31
  31
  30
  29
  28
  27
  25
  24
  22
  21
  19
  17
  16
  14
  13
  11
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Anika Therapeutics, Inc. is an orthopedic medicines company. The Company is engaged in developing, manufacturing and commercializing products based on its hyaluronic acid (HA) technology. The Company's orthopedic medicine portfolio includes ORTHOVISC, MONOVISC, and CINGAL, which alleviate pain and restore joint function by replenishing depleted HA, and HYALOFAST, a solid HA-based scaffold to aid cartilage repair and regeneration. The Company's therapeutic offerings consist of products in the areas, including Orthobiologics, which includes viscosupplementation and regenerative orthopedic products; Dermal, which includes wound care products; Surgical, which includes products used to prevent post-surgical adhesions, and Other, which includes the Company's ophthalmic and veterinary products. The Company also offers products made from HA based on two other technologies: HYAFF, which is a solid form of HA, and ACP gel, an autocross-linked polymer of HA.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Anika Therapeutics (ANIK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.2
Price to Sales 8.4
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 36
Price to Free Cash Flow 86.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 55.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Return On Total Capital 15.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Return On Equity 15.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 78.1%
EBITDA Margin 53.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.5%
Operating Margin 48.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 49.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.2%
Net Profit Margin 32%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
Effective Tax Rate 35.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

ANIK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ANIK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $103 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Anika Therapeutics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Anika Therapeutics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ANIK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ANIK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Anika Therapeutics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Anika Therapeutics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ANIK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 48.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ANIK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Anika Therapeutics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Anika Therapeutics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ANIK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ANIK are equal to 55.3%.

Life of production assets of 16 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Anika Therapeutics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ANIK is equal to 35%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $223 million for Anika Therapeutics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 14.52 million for Anika Therapeutics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Anika Therapeutics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 7 Quality Stocks With High Business Predictability Ratings   [Dec-14-17 03:21PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Anika posts 3Q profit   [Oct-25-17 05:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ Anika Announces Appointment of Joseph Darling as President   [Jul-27-17 08:05AM  Business Wire]
▶ Anika posts 2Q profit   [Jul-26-17 11:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Anika pays former medical chief $350K to thwart possible lawsuit   [12:40PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Here Comes a Big Breakout For Alibaba   [Jun-20-17 06:30AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Biotech Movers: Anika Up on Strong Analyst Ratings   [May-12-17 09:50AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ 6 Stocks Young Warren Buffett Would Buy in 2017   [May-05-17 05:08PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Anika posts 1Q profit   [May-03-17 06:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Anika posts 4Q profit   [Feb-15-17 04:56PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of ANIK
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