Intrinsic value of ANI Pharmaceuticals - ANIP

Previous Close

$69.74

  Intrinsic Value

$65.88

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-6%

Previous close

$69.74

 
Intrinsic value

$65.88

 
Up/down potential

-6%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ANIP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  69.74
  23.10
  21.29
  19.66
  18.19
  16.88
  15.69
  14.62
  13.66
  12.79
  12.01
  11.31
  10.68
  10.11
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.35
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
Revenue, $m
  129
  159
  193
  230
  272
  318
  368
  422
  480
  541
  606
  675
  747
  822
  901
  984
  1,070
  1,159
  1,252
  1,348
  1,449
  1,553
  1,662
  1,774
  1,891
  2,013
  2,140
  2,272
  2,410
  2,553
  2,702
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  92
  112
  134
  158
  185
  214
  245
  278
  314
  351
  391
  433
  477
  522
  570
  620
  672
  725
  781
  840
  900
  963
  1,028
  1,096
  1,167
  1,240
  1,317
  1,396
  1,479
  1,566
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  109
  92
  112
  134
  158
  185
  214
  245
  278
  314
  351
  391
  433
  477
  522
  570
  620
  672
  725
  781
  840
  900
  963
  1,028
  1,096
  1,167
  1,240
  1,317
  1,396
  1,479
  1,566
Operating income, $m
  20
  67
  81
  97
  114
  134
  155
  177
  202
  227
  255
  284
  314
  346
  379
  414
  450
  487
  526
  567
  609
  653
  699
  746
  795
  847
  900
  956
  1,013
  1,074
  1,137
EBITDA, $m
  42
  94
  113
  136
  161
  188
  217
  249
  283
  319
  357
  398
  440
  485
  531
  580
  630
  683
  738
  795
  854
  915
  979
  1,045
  1,114
  1,186
  1,261
  1,339
  1,420
  1,504
  1,592
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  62
  75
  90
  106
  124
  143
  163
  185
  209
  233
  260
  287
  316
  346
  377
  410
  444
  479
  516
  554
  594
  635
  678
  723
  769
  818
  868
  920
  975
  1,032
Tax expense, $m
  5
  17
  20
  24
  29
  33
  39
  44
  50
  56
  63
  70
  78
  85
  93
  102
  111
  120
  129
  139
  150
  160
  172
  183
  195
  208
  221
  234
  248
  263
  279
Net income, $m
  4
  46
  55
  66
  77
  90
  104
  119
  135
  152
  170
  190
  210
  231
  253
  276
  299
  324
  350
  377
  405
  434
  464
  495
  528
  562
  597
  634
  672
  712
  753

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  27
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  323
  364
  442
  529
  625
  730
  845
  968
  1,101
  1,241
  1,390
  1,548
  1,713
  1,886
  2,067
  2,256
  2,453
  2,658
  2,871
  3,093
  3,323
  3,562
  3,811
  4,069
  4,338
  4,618
  4,909
  5,211
  5,527
  5,856
  6,198
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  296
  364
  442
  529
  625
  730
  845
  968
  1,101
  1,241
  1,390
  1,548
  1,713
  1,886
  2,067
  2,256
  2,453
  2,658
  2,871
  3,093
  3,323
  3,562
  3,811
  4,069
  4,338
  4,618
  4,909
  5,211
  5,527
  5,856
  6,198
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.436
  0.437
  0.437
  0.435
  0.435
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
Average production assets, $m
  131
  161
  195
  233
  276
  322
  373
  427
  486
  548
  613
  683
  756
  832
  912
  996
  1,082
  1,173
  1,267
  1,365
  1,466
  1,572
  1,682
  1,796
  1,914
  2,038
  2,166
  2,299
  2,439
  2,584
  2,735
Working capital, $m
  71
  54
  66
  79
  93
  109
  126
  144
  164
  185
  207
  230
  255
  280
  307
  335
  365
  395
  427
  460
  494
  530
  567
  605
  645
  687
  730
  775
  822
  871
  922
Total debt, $m
  121
  156
  196
  241
  291
  346
  405
  469
  537
  610
  687
  768
  854
  943
  1,037
  1,134
  1,236
  1,342
  1,452
  1,567
  1,686
  1,810
  1,938
  2,072
  2,211
  2,355
  2,506
  2,662
  2,825
  2,995
  3,173
Total liabilities, $m
  153
  188
  228
  273
  323
  378
  437
  501
  569
  642
  719
  800
  886
  975
  1,069
  1,166
  1,268
  1,374
  1,484
  1,599
  1,718
  1,842
  1,970
  2,104
  2,243
  2,387
  2,538
  2,694
  2,857
  3,027
  3,205
Total equity, $m
  170
  176
  213
  255
  302
  353
  408
  468
  532
  600
  672
  748
  827
  911
  998
  1,090
  1,185
  1,284
  1,387
  1,494
  1,605
  1,721
  1,841
  1,966
  2,095
  2,230
  2,371
  2,517
  2,669
  2,828
  2,994
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  323
  364
  441
  528
  625
  731
  845
  969
  1,101
  1,242
  1,391
  1,548
  1,713
  1,886
  2,067
  2,256
  2,453
  2,658
  2,871
  3,093
  3,323
  3,563
  3,811
  4,070
  4,338
  4,617
  4,909
  5,211
  5,526
  5,855
  6,199
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.712
  0.890
  0.920
  0.950
  0.960
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  46
  55
  66
  77
  90
  104
  119
  135
  152
  170
  190
  210
  231
  253
  276
  299
  324
  350
  377
  405
  434
  464
  495
  528
  562
  597
  634
  672
  712
  753
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  27
  33
  39
  46
  54
  62
  71
  81
  91
  102
  114
  126
  139
  152
  166
  180
  195
  211
  227
  244
  262
  280
  299
  319
  340
  361
  383
  406
  431
  456
Funds from operations, $m
  17
  72
  88
  105
  123
  144
  166
  191
  216
  244
  273
  303
  336
  369
  405
  441
  480
  520
  561
  604
  649
  696
  744
  794
  847
  901
  958
  1,017
  1,078
  1,142
  1,209
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
Cash from operations, $m
  27
  62
  76
  92
  109
  128
  149
  172
  197
  223
  251
  280
  311
  344
  378
  413
  451
  489
  529
  571
  615
  660
  707
  756
  807
  860
  915
  972
  1,031
  1,093
  1,158
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -22
  -27
  -32
  -39
  -46
  -54
  -62
  -71
  -81
  -91
  -102
  -114
  -126
  -139
  -152
  -166
  -180
  -195
  -211
  -227
  -244
  -262
  -280
  -299
  -319
  -340
  -361
  -383
  -406
  -431
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -154
  -52
  -61
  -70
  -81
  -93
  -105
  -116
  -129
  -143
  -157
  -171
  -187
  -202
  -219
  -235
  -253
  -270
  -289
  -309
  -329
  -350
  -372
  -394
  -418
  -442
  -468
  -495
  -522
  -551
  -582
Free cash flow, $m
  -127
  10
  15
  21
  28
  36
  45
  56
  67
  80
  94
  108
  124
  141
  159
  178
  198
  218
  240
  262
  286
  310
  335
  362
  389
  417
  447
  477
  509
  542
  576
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  157
  163
  170
  177
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  157
  163
  170
  177
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -127
  46
  55
  66
  78
  90
  104
  119
  135
  153
  171
  190
  210
  231
  253
  276
  299
  324
  350
  377
  405
  434
  464
  495
  528
  562
  597
  634
  672
  712
  753
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -166
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  27
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  40
  18
  24
  31
  40
  49
  60
  72
  85
  99
  114
  130
  147
  165
  184
  204
  225
  247
  270
  294
  318
  344
  371
  398
  427
  457
  487
  520
  553
  588
Discount rate, %
 
  5.50
  5.78
  6.06
  6.37
  6.69
  7.02
  7.37
  7.74
  8.13
  8.53
  8.96
  9.41
  9.88
  10.37
  10.89
  11.43
  12.01
  12.61
  13.24
  13.90
  14.59
  15.32
  16.09
  16.89
  17.74
  18.62
  19.56
  20.53
  21.56
  22.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  38
  16
  20
  24
  29
  33
  36
  39
  42
  44
  44
  44
  43
  42
  39
  36
  33
  29
  25
  22
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is an integrated specialty pharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing branded and generic prescription pharmaceuticals. The Company focuses on areas, including controlled substances, anti-cancer (oncolytics), hormones and steroids, and complex formulations. It also performs contract manufacturing for other pharmaceutical companies. Its products include both branded and generic pharmaceuticals. Its generic products include Erythromycin Ethylsuccinate, Esterified Estrogen with Methyltestosterone (EEMT), Etodolac Fenofibrate, Flecainide, Fluvoxamine, Hydrocortisone Enema, Methazolamide, Metoclopramide Syrup Nilutamide, Nimodipine, Opium Tincture, Oxycodone Capsules, Oxycodone Oral Solution, Propafenone and Vancomycin. Its branded products include Cortenema, Inderal LA, Lithobid, Reglan and Vancocin. Its pharmaceutical manufacturing facilities are located in Baudette, Minnesota.


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FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 202.2
Price to Sales 6.3
Price to Book 4.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 30
Price to Free Cash Flow 36.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 69.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 150%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 71.2%
Total Debt to Equity 71.2%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Total Capital 1.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Equity 2.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 62%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.5%
EBITDA Margin 27.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Operating Margin 15.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Net Profit Margin 3.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.9%
Effective Tax Rate 55.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

ANIP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ANIP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $129 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ANI Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ANI Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ANIP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.5%, whose default value for ANIP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ANI Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ANI Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ANIP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 58.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ANIP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ANI Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ANI Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ANIP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ANIP are equal to 101.2%.

Life of production assets of 6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ANI Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ANIP is equal to 34.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $170 million for ANI Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.491 million for ANI Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ANI Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Top-Rated Stocks: ANI Pharmaceuticals Sees Composite Rating Climb To 97   [Jan-03-18 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Is It The Right Time To Buy ANI Pharmaceuticals Inc (ANIP)?   [Dec-04-17 11:30AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Stocks To Watch: ANI Pharmaceuticals Sees Relative Strength Rating Rise To 93   [Nov-29-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ANI posts 3Q profit   [Nov-02-17 09:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Small, Profitable Biotechs With Fantastic Growth   [Oct-24-17 07:33AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Top Small-Cap Stocks to Buy in August   [Aug-21-17 07:34AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ANI posts 2Q profit   [Aug-04-17 12:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ 4 Top Small-Cap Stocks to Buy in June   [Jun-12-17 08:49AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 4 of the Cheapest Biotech Stocks in the World   [May-11-17 12:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ANI Pharmaceuticals Announces Launch of Pindolol Tablets   [May-08-17 09:15AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ANI posts 1Q profit   [09:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ ANI reports 4Q loss   [Mar-02-17 08:54AM  Associated Press]
▶ 4 Top Small-Cap Stocks to Buy This Winter   [Jan-23-17 09:20AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 4 Top Small-Cap Stocks to Buy This Winter   [09:20AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 5 Growth Stocks That Could Double   [Jan-07-17 08:37AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Is ANI Pharmaceuticals Inc (ANIP) a Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-04-16 06:30PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ The Greatest Small-Cap Stocks You've Never Heard About   [Dec-02-16 09:02AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ ANI Pharmaceuticals 3Q Net Beats Street (ANIP)   [Nov-04-16 10:33AM  at Investopedia]
Financial statements of ANIP
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