Intrinsic value of ANSYS, Inc. - ANSS

Previous Close

$209.57

  Intrinsic Value

$84.61

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-60%

Previous close

$209.57

 
Intrinsic value

$84.61

 
Up/down potential

-60%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ANSS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 17.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  37.40
  34.16
  31.24
  28.62
  26.26
  24.13
  22.22
  20.50
  18.95
  17.55
  16.30
  15.17
  14.15
  13.24
  12.41
  11.67
  11.00
  10.40
  9.86
  9.38
  8.94
  8.55
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.33
  7.09
  6.88
  6.70
  6.53
Revenue, $m
  1,778
  2,385
  3,131
  4,027
  5,084
  6,311
  7,713
  9,294
  11,054
  12,995
  15,113
  17,405
  19,868
  22,497
  25,290
  28,241
  31,349
  34,610
  38,024
  41,589
  45,307
  49,179
  53,207
  57,395
  61,748
  66,271
  70,972
  75,858
  80,937
  86,219
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,004
  1,345
  1,763
  2,266
  2,859
  3,548
  4,335
  5,222
  6,210
  7,299
  8,481
  9,768
  11,150
  12,626
  14,193
  15,849
  17,593
  19,424
  21,339
  23,340
  25,427
  27,599
  29,860
  32,210
  34,653
  37,192
  39,830
  42,572
  45,423
  48,387
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  101
  104
  106
  108
  111
  113
  115
  118
  121
  123
  126
  129
  132
  134
  137
  140
  144
  147
  150
  153
  157
  160
  164
  167
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,093
  1,436
  1,856
  2,361
  2,956
  3,647
  4,436
  5,326
  6,316
  7,407
  8,592
  9,881
  11,265
  12,744
  14,314
  15,972
  17,719
  19,553
  21,471
  23,474
  25,564
  27,739
  30,004
  32,357
  34,803
  37,345
  39,987
  42,732
  45,587
  48,554
Operating income, $m
  685
  950
  1,275
  1,666
  2,128
  2,664
  3,277
  3,968
  4,739
  5,588
  6,521
  7,524
  8,602
  9,754
  10,976
  12,269
  13,630
  15,058
  16,553
  18,115
  19,743
  21,439
  23,203
  25,038
  26,945
  28,926
  30,985
  33,126
  35,351
  37,665
EBITDA, $m
  733
  1,012
  1,355
  1,767
  2,254
  2,819
  3,466
  4,195
  5,007
  5,902
  6,879
  7,936
  9,073
  10,287
  11,575
  12,938
  14,372
  15,878
  17,454
  19,100
  20,816
  22,604
  24,464
  26,397
  28,407
  30,496
  32,667
  34,923
  37,268
  39,708
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  13
  28
  47
  71
  98
  130
  166
  207
  252
  302
  357
  416
  479
  547
  619
  695
  776
  860
  948
  1,040
  1,136
  1,236
  1,340
  1,448
  1,560
  1,677
  1,798
  1,924
  2,055
Earnings before tax, $m
  685
  937
  1,246
  1,618
  2,057
  2,566
  3,147
  3,802
  4,532
  5,336
  6,219
  7,167
  8,187
  9,274
  10,429
  11,649
  12,934
  14,282
  15,693
  17,167
  18,703
  20,303
  21,967
  23,698
  25,497
  27,366
  29,309
  31,328
  33,427
  35,610
Tax expense, $m
  185
  253
  337
  437
  555
  693
  850
  1,027
  1,224
  1,441
  1,679
  1,935
  2,210
  2,504
  2,816
  3,145
  3,492
  3,856
  4,237
  4,635
  5,050
  5,482
  5,931
  6,398
  6,884
  7,389
  7,913
  8,459
  9,025
  9,615
Net income, $m
  500
  684
  910
  1,181
  1,502
  1,873
  2,297
  2,776
  3,308
  3,895
  4,540
  5,232
  5,976
  6,770
  7,613
  8,504
  9,442
  10,426
  11,456
  12,532
  13,653
  14,821
  16,036
  17,300
  18,613
  19,977
  21,395
  22,869
  24,402
  25,995

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,144
  5,560
  7,297
  9,386
  11,850
  14,710
  17,978
  21,663
  25,768
  30,291
  35,228
  40,571
  46,312
  52,441
  58,950
  65,830
  73,074
  80,677
  88,634
  96,945
  105,611
  114,635
  124,025
  133,787
  143,934
  154,479
  165,437
  176,825
  188,665
  200,978
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,144
  5,560
  7,297
  9,386
  11,850
  14,710
  17,978
  21,663
  25,768
  30,291
  35,228
  40,571
  46,312
  52,441
  58,950
  65,830
  73,074
  80,677
  88,634
  96,945
  105,611
  114,635
  124,025
  133,787
  143,934
  154,479
  165,437
  176,825
  188,665
  200,978
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
Average production assets, $m
  1,221
  1,639
  2,151
  2,766
  3,493
  4,335
  5,299
  6,385
  7,594
  8,927
  10,382
  11,957
  13,649
  15,456
  17,374
  19,402
  21,537
  23,777
  26,122
  28,572
  31,126
  33,786
  36,553
  39,430
  42,421
  45,528
  48,758
  52,115
  55,604
  59,233
Working capital, $m
  12
  17
  22
  28
  36
  44
  54
  65
  77
  91
  106
  122
  139
  157
  177
  198
  219
  242
  266
  291
  317
  344
  372
  402
  432
  464
  497
  531
  567
  604
Total debt, $m
  233
  523
  880
  1,308
  1,813
  2,399
  3,069
  3,825
  4,666
  5,593
  6,605
  7,701
  8,877
  10,134
  11,468
  12,879
  14,364
  15,922
  17,553
  19,257
  21,034
  22,884
  24,809
  26,810
  28,890
  31,052
  33,298
  35,633
  38,060
  40,584
Total liabilities, $m
  850
  1,140
  1,496
  1,924
  2,429
  3,016
  3,686
  4,441
  5,282
  6,210
  7,222
  8,317
  9,494
  10,750
  12,085
  13,495
  14,980
  16,539
  18,170
  19,874
  21,650
  23,500
  25,425
  27,426
  29,507
  31,668
  33,915
  36,249
  38,676
  41,200
Total equity, $m
  3,295
  4,420
  5,801
  7,462
  9,421
  11,694
  14,293
  17,222
  20,486
  24,081
  28,006
  32,254
  36,818
  41,691
  46,866
  52,335
  58,094
  64,138
  70,464
  77,071
  83,960
  91,135
  98,600
  106,361
  114,428
  122,811
  131,522
  140,576
  149,989
  159,777
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,145
  5,560
  7,297
  9,386
  11,850
  14,710
  17,979
  21,663
  25,768
  30,291
  35,228
  40,571
  46,312
  52,441
  58,951
  65,830
  73,074
  80,677
  88,634
  96,945
  105,610
  114,635
  124,025
  133,787
  143,935
  154,479
  165,437
  176,825
  188,665
  200,977
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.070
  0.120
  0.150
  0.180
  0.190
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  500
  684
  910
  1,181
  1,502
  1,873
  2,297
  2,776
  3,308
  3,895
  4,540
  5,232
  5,976
  6,770
  7,613
  8,504
  9,442
  10,426
  11,456
  12,532
  13,653
  14,821
  16,036
  17,300
  18,613
  19,977
  21,395
  22,869
  24,402
  25,995
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  48
  63
  80
  102
  127
  156
  189
  226
  268
  314
  358
  412
  471
  533
  599
  669
  743
  820
  901
  985
  1,073
  1,165
  1,260
  1,360
  1,463
  1,570
  1,681
  1,797
  1,917
  2,043
Funds from operations, $m
  548
  747
  990
  1,283
  1,628
  2,029
  2,486
  3,002
  3,576
  4,209
  4,898
  5,645
  6,447
  7,303
  8,212
  9,173
  10,185
  11,246
  12,357
  13,517
  14,727
  15,986
  17,297
  18,659
  20,075
  21,547
  23,077
  24,666
  26,319
  28,038
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
Cash from operations, $m
  545
  742
  985
  1,277
  1,621
  2,020
  2,477
  2,991
  3,564
  4,196
  4,883
  5,628
  6,430
  7,285
  8,193
  9,152
  10,163
  11,223
  12,333
  13,492
  14,700
  15,959
  17,268
  18,630
  20,045
  21,516
  23,044
  24,632
  26,283
  28,001
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -42
  -57
  -74
  -95
  -120
  -149
  -183
  -220
  -262
  -308
  -358
  -412
  -471
  -533
  -599
  -669
  -743
  -820
  -901
  -985
  -1,073
  -1,165
  -1,260
  -1,360
  -1,463
  -1,570
  -1,681
  -1,797
  -1,917
New CAPEX, $m
  -332
  -417
  -512
  -616
  -726
  -843
  -963
  -1,086
  -1,210
  -1,333
  -1,455
  -1,575
  -1,692
  -1,807
  -1,918
  -2,028
  -2,135
  -2,241
  -2,345
  -2,449
  -2,554
  -2,660
  -2,767
  -2,877
  -2,991
  -3,108
  -3,230
  -3,357
  -3,489
  -3,629
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -363
  -459
  -569
  -690
  -821
  -963
  -1,112
  -1,269
  -1,430
  -1,595
  -1,763
  -1,933
  -2,104
  -2,278
  -2,451
  -2,627
  -2,804
  -2,984
  -3,165
  -3,350
  -3,539
  -3,733
  -3,932
  -4,137
  -4,351
  -4,571
  -4,800
  -5,038
  -5,286
  -5,546
Free cash flow, $m
  182
  283
  416
  587
  799
  1,057
  1,364
  1,722
  2,134
  2,601
  3,120
  3,696
  4,325
  5,008
  5,741
  6,526
  7,359
  8,240
  9,168
  10,142
  11,161
  12,226
  13,336
  14,492
  15,695
  16,945
  18,244
  19,594
  20,997
  22,455
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  233
  290
  356
  428
  505
  586
  670
  755
  841
  927
  1,012
  1,095
  1,177
  1,257
  1,334
  1,410
  1,485
  1,558
  1,631
  1,704
  1,777
  1,850
  1,925
  2,001
  2,080
  2,162
  2,246
  2,335
  2,427
  2,524
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  398
  442
  471
  479
  458
  400
  301
  154
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  631
  732
  827
  907
  963
  986
  971
  909
  841
  927
  1,012
  1,095
  1,177
  1,257
  1,334
  1,410
  1,485
  1,558
  1,631
  1,704
  1,777
  1,850
  1,925
  2,001
  2,080
  2,162
  2,246
  2,335
  2,427
  2,524
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  813
  1,015
  1,244
  1,494
  1,762
  2,044
  2,335
  2,632
  2,976
  3,528
  4,132
  4,791
  5,502
  6,264
  7,076
  7,936
  8,844
  9,798
  10,799
  11,845
  12,938
  14,076
  15,261
  16,493
  17,775
  19,107
  20,491
  21,929
  23,424
  24,979
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -898
  -1,126
  -1,381
  -1,660
  -1,959
  -2,273
  -2,598
  -2,930
  -3,263
  -3,596
  -3,925
  -4,248
  -4,564
  -4,873
  -5,175
  -5,470
  -5,759
  -6,044
  -6,326
  -6,607
  -6,889
  -7,175
  -7,465
  -7,761
  -8,067
  -8,383
  -8,711
  -9,054
  -9,412
  -9,788
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  253
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  168
  -111
  -137
  -166
  -197
  -230
  -264
  -298
  -287
  -68
  208
  543
  938
  1,391
  1,901
  2,466
  3,085
  3,755
  4,473
  5,238
  6,048
  6,901
  7,796
  8,732
  9,708
  10,724
  11,779
  12,875
  14,012
  15,190
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  161
  -101
  -119
  -137
  -153
  -167
  -178
  -186
  -165
  -36
  99
  232
  357
  467
  558
  627
  671
  691
  689
  666
  626
  573
  511
  445
  378
  313
  253
  199
  153
  114
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.6
  95.6
  94.1
  92.9
  92.1
  91.5
  91.2
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0

ANSYS, Inc. (ANSYS) develops and markets engineering simulation software and services used by engineers, designers, researchers and students across a range of industries and academia, including aerospace and defense, automotive, industrial equipment, electronics, biomedical, energy, materials and chemical processing, and semiconductors. The Company focuses on the development of open and flexible solutions that enable users to analyze designs directly on the desktop, providing a common platform for product development, from design concept to final-stage testing and validation. The Company distributes its ANSYS suite of simulation technologies through a network of independent resellers and distributors, and direct sales offices in various locations. Its product portfolio consists of Simulation Platform: ANSYS Workbench, Structures, Fluids, Electronics, Semiconductors, Multiphysics, AIM, Embedded Software, Systems, Three Dimensional (3-D) Direct Modeling and Academic.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ANSYS, Inc. (ANSS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 67.5
Price to Sales 18.2
Price to Book 8.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 50.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 52.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -16.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 381
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Total Capital 12.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Return On Equity 12.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 85.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 84.4%
EBITDA Margin 45.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46%
Operating Margin 38.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 38.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.8%
Net Profit Margin 26.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27%
Effective Tax Rate 30%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

ANSS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ANSS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1294 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ANSYS, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of ANSYS, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ANSS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 37.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ANSS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ANSYS, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ANSYS, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ANSS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 56.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $87 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ANSS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for ANSYS, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ANSYS, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ANSS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ANSS are equal to 68.7%.

Life of production assets of 29 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ANSYS, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ANSS is equal to 0.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2649.547 million for ANSYS, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 83.768 million for ANSYS, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ANSYS, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $17.6 billion.

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