Intrinsic value of Aegean Marine Petroleum Network - ANW

Previous Close

$0.66

  Intrinsic Value

$3.27

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+395%

Previous close

$0.66

 
Intrinsic value

$3.27

 
Up/down potential

+395%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ANW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,158
  4,253
  4,363
  4,485
  4,621
  4,771
  4,933
  5,109
  5,298
  5,502
  5,719
  5,951
  6,199
  6,461
  6,740
  7,035
  7,348
  7,679
  8,028
  8,397
  8,786
  9,196
  9,629
  10,085
  10,565
  11,071
  11,603
  12,163
  12,752
  13,371
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,083
  4,176
  4,284
  4,404
  4,537
  4,683
  4,843
  5,015
  5,201
  5,400
  5,606
  5,834
  6,076
  6,333
  6,606
  6,896
  7,202
  7,526
  7,869
  8,230
  8,612
  9,014
  9,438
  9,885
  10,356
  10,851
  11,373
  11,922
  12,499
  13,106
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,083
  4,176
  4,284
  4,404
  4,537
  4,683
  4,843
  5,015
  5,201
  5,400
  5,606
  5,834
  6,076
  6,333
  6,606
  6,896
  7,202
  7,526
  7,869
  8,230
  8,612
  9,014
  9,438
  9,885
  10,356
  10,851
  11,373
  11,922
  12,499
  13,106
Operating income, $m
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  139
  146
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  230
  241
  253
  265
EBITDA, $m
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  147
  152
  158
  164
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
  380
  399
Interest expense (income), $m
  26
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
  160
Earnings before tax, $m
  31
  32
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
Tax expense, $m
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
Net income, $m
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,633
  1,671
  1,714
  1,762
  1,815
  1,874
  1,938
  2,007
  2,081
  2,161
  2,246
  2,338
  2,435
  2,538
  2,647
  2,763
  2,886
  3,016
  3,153
  3,298
  3,451
  3,612
  3,782
  3,961
  4,150
  4,348
  4,557
  4,777
  5,008
  5,252
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,633
  1,671
  1,714
  1,762
  1,815
  1,874
  1,938
  2,007
  2,081
  2,161
  2,246
  2,338
  2,435
  2,538
  2,647
  2,763
  2,886
  3,016
  3,153
  3,298
  3,451
  3,612
  3,782
  3,961
  4,150
  4,348
  4,557
  4,777
  5,008
  5,252
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.546
  2.545
  2.546
  2.545
  2.546
  2.546
  2.545
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.545
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
  2.546
Average production assets, $m
  653
  668
  685
  704
  726
  749
  774
  802
  832
  864
  898
  934
  973
  1,014
  1,058
  1,105
  1,154
  1,206
  1,260
  1,318
  1,379
  1,444
  1,512
  1,583
  1,659
  1,738
  1,822
  1,910
  2,002
  2,099
Working capital, $m
  640
  655
  672
  691
  712
  735
  760
  787
  816
  847
  881
  917
  955
  995
  1,038
  1,083
  1,132
  1,183
  1,236
  1,293
  1,353
  1,416
  1,483
  1,553
  1,627
  1,705
  1,787
  1,873
  1,964
  2,059
Total debt, $m
  838
  862
  889
  920
  953
  990
  1,031
  1,074
  1,121
  1,172
  1,226
  1,284
  1,345
  1,410
  1,479
  1,553
  1,630
  1,712
  1,799
  1,891
  1,987
  2,089
  2,196
  2,310
  2,429
  2,554
  2,686
  2,825
  2,972
  3,125
Total liabilities, $m
  1,032
  1,056
  1,083
  1,113
  1,147
  1,184
  1,225
  1,268
  1,315
  1,366
  1,420
  1,477
  1,539
  1,604
  1,673
  1,746
  1,824
  1,906
  1,993
  2,084
  2,181
  2,283
  2,390
  2,503
  2,623
  2,748
  2,880
  3,019
  3,165
  3,319
Total equity, $m
  601
  615
  631
  648
  668
  690
  713
  738
  766
  795
  827
  860
  896
  934
  974
  1,017
  1,062
  1,110
  1,160
  1,214
  1,270
  1,329
  1,392
  1,458
  1,527
  1,600
  1,677
  1,758
  1,843
  1,933
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,633
  1,671
  1,714
  1,761
  1,815
  1,874
  1,938
  2,006
  2,081
  2,161
  2,247
  2,337
  2,435
  2,538
  2,647
  2,763
  2,886
  3,016
  3,153
  3,298
  3,451
  3,612
  3,782
  3,961
  4,150
  4,348
  4,557
  4,777
  5,008
  5,252
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
  1.530
  1.540
  1.550
  1.560
  1.560
  1.570
  1.580
  1.580
  1.590
  1.600
  1.600
  1.610
  1.610
  1.620
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  57
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
Funds from operations, $m
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  92
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
Change in working capital, $m
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
Cash from operations, $m
  59
  58
  58
  58
  58
  58
  59
  59
  60
  61
  60
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -52
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -99
  -103
  -109
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -225
Free cash flow, $m
  7
  2
  -2
  -5
  -8
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -110
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  21
  24
  27
  30
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  50
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  21
  24
  27
  30
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  50
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  28
  25
  25
  25
  25
  26
  26
  26
  26
  27
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  16
  12
  10
  8
  6
  4
  2
  1
  -1
  -3
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
Discount rate, %
  9.60
  10.08
  10.58
  11.11
  11.67
  12.25
  12.86
  13.51
  14.18
  14.89
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.10
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.00
  23.10
  24.26
  25.47
  26.75
  28.08
  29.49
  30.96
  32.51
  34.13
  35.84
  37.63
  39.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  15
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.8
  99.6
  99.3
  98.8
  98.3
  97.7
  97.1
  96.3
  95.5
  94.7
  93.8
  92.9
  92.0

Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. is an international marine fuel logistics company. The Company markets and physically supplies refined marine fuel and lubricants to vessels in port, at sea and on rivers. As a physical supplier, the Company procures marine fuel from refineries, oil producers and other sources, and resells and delivers these fuels from its bunkering vessels to a range of end users. The Company owns and operates a fleet of approximately 50 bunkering vessels. The Company operates over 10 land-based storage facilities. The Company operates a vessel as a floating storage facility with a cargo carrying capacity of approximately 19,900 deadweight tonnage (dwt). The Company provides fueling services to various types of ocean-going and various types of coastal vessels, such as oil tankers, container ships, drybulk carriers, cruise ships, reefers, liquefied natural gas (LNG)/liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers, car carriers and ferries.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Aegean Marine Petroleum Network (ANW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0.5
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 22.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -30.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 85.4%
Total Debt to Equity 138.6%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Total Capital 3.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Return On Equity 8.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 8.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
EBITDA Margin 3.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Operating Margin 2.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Net Profit Margin 1.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Effective Tax Rate 7.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Payout Ratio 7.7%

ANW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ANW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4076.219 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Aegean Marine Petroleum Network. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Aegean Marine Petroleum Network. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ANW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.6%, whose default value for ANW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Aegean Marine Petroleum Network, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Aegean Marine Petroleum Network.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ANW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ANW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Aegean Marine Petroleum Network.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Aegean Marine Petroleum Network. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ANW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ANW are equal to 15.7%.

Life of production assets of 15.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Aegean Marine Petroleum Network operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ANW is equal to 15.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $589.533 million for Aegean Marine Petroleum Network - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.446 million for Aegean Marine Petroleum Network is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Aegean Marine Petroleum Network at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] Aegean Marine Wins Court Approval for Bankruptcy Financing   [Nov-09-18 01:12PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Aegean Marine Urgently Seeks Bankruptcy Financing   [Nov-08-18 06:37PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Aegean Marine Files for Chapter 11, Targets Potential Sale   [Nov-06-18 03:45PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Aegean Marine files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection   [Nov-05-18 11:39PM  Financial Times]

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