Intrinsic value of Sphere 3D Corp. - ANY

Previous Close

$2.62

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$2.62

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ANY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  84
  86
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  233
  245
  257
  269
Variable operating expenses, $m
  154
  157
  161
  166
  170
  176
  182
  188
  195
  202
  204
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  263
  274
  287
  300
  314
  329
  344
  360
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
  478
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  154
  157
  161
  166
  170
  176
  182
  188
  195
  202
  204
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  263
  274
  287
  300
  314
  329
  344
  360
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
  478
Operating income, $m
  -70
  -72
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
EBITDA, $m
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
Earnings before tax, $m
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  85
  87
  89
  92
  94
  97
  101
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  273
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  85
  87
  89
  92
  94
  97
  101
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  273
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.988
  0.989
  0.989
  0.978
  0.989
  0.990
  0.980
  0.990
  0.991
  0.991
  0.983
  0.984
  0.984
  0.985
  0.986
  0.986
  0.987
  0.981
  0.982
  0.988
  0.989
  0.984
  0.985
  0.985
  0.986
  0.987
  0.983
  0.988
  0.988
  0.985
Average production assets, $m
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
Working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
Total debt, $m
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
Total liabilities, $m
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
Total equity, $m
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  85
  87
  89
  92
  94
  97
  101
  104
  109
  112
  117
  121
  127
  132
  137
  144
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  261
  273
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.320
  4.380
  4.440
  4.510
  4.580
  4.650
  4.730
  4.810
  4.880
  4.960
  5.030
  5.110
  5.180
  5.250
  5.320
  5.390
  5.460
  5.520
  5.580
  5.640
  5.700
  5.750
  5.810
  5.860
  5.910
  5.950
  6.000
  6.040
  6.080
  6.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
Funds from operations, $m
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -225
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -225
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
Free cash flow, $m
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -188
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  76
  78
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  141
  147
  154
  162
  170
  178
  186
  196
  205
  215
  226
  237
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  77
  80
  82
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  100
  105
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  128
  135
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  178
  186
  195
  205
  214
  225
  237
  248
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -97
  -101
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -237
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -70
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -171
  -180
  -188
  -198
  -207
  -218
  -228
Discount rate, %
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.41
  27.73
  29.12
  30.58
  32.10
  33.71
  35.40
  37.17
  39.02
  40.97
  43.02
  45.17
  47.43
  49.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -62
  -56
  -50
  -45
  -39
  -34
  -29
  -24
  -20
  -17
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  8.7
  0.8
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Sphere 3D Corp. provides virtualization technologies and data management solutions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company enables organizations to deploy a combination of public, private, or hybrid cloud strategies through containerized applications, virtual desktops, virtual storage, and physical hyper-converged platforms. It provides G-Series Appliance and G-Series Cloud applications; virtual desktop management software for managing virtual desktop pools on its V3 hyper-converged appliances for virtualized desktop infrastructures; GuardianOS storage software for SnapServer enterprise-grade network attached storage systems; RAINcloud OS storage software for SnapScale clustered scale-out data storage solutions; Snap Enterprise Data Replicator, which provides multi-directional, WAN-optimized replication for SnapServer and SnapScale systems; and AccuGuard, a Windows-based backup and recovery data protection software. The company also offers RDX removable disk solutions, which use public cloud providers, including Microsoft and Amazon for data protection; SnapServer network attached storage solution, a platform for primary or nearline storage for integration with Windows, UNIX/Linux, and Macintosh environments; SnapScale clustered network attached storage solutions, which are clustered NAS solutions that enable organizations with rapid or unpredictable data growth to scale capacity and performance; and V3 hyper-converged platform, an appliance for high performance virtual desktop infrastructure. In addition, it offers NEO series tape-based backup and long-term archive solutions, including tape libraries, tape autoloaders, and stand-alone tape drives. The company sells its products through its distributor and reseller network to small and medium enterprises, small and medium businesses, and distributed enterprises. Sphere 3D Corp. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Mississauga, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sphere 3D Corp. (ANY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ANY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ANY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $82 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sphere 3D Corp.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Sphere 3D Corp.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ANY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.1%, whose default value for ANY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sphere 3D Corp., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sphere 3D Corp..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ANY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 184.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ANY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 13.3% for Sphere 3D Corp..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sphere 3D Corp.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ANY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ANY are equal to 37.6%.

Life of production assets of 9.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sphere 3D Corp. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ANY is equal to -1.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $10.463 million for Sphere 3D Corp. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 1.962 million for Sphere 3D Corp. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sphere 3D Corp. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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