Intrinsic value of American Outdoor Brands - AOBC

Previous Close

$10.24

  Intrinsic Value

$105.03

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+926%

Previous close

$10.24

 
Intrinsic value

$105.03

 
Up/down potential

+926%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of AOBC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  24.90
  22.91
  21.12
  19.51
  18.06
  16.75
  15.58
  14.52
  13.57
  12.71
  11.94
  11.24
  10.62
  10.06
  9.55
  9.10
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
Revenue, $m
  1,128
  1,386
  1,679
  2,007
  2,369
  2,766
  3,196
  3,660
  4,157
  4,685
  5,245
  5,835
  6,454
  7,103
  7,782
  8,490
  9,227
  9,995
  10,793
  11,623
  12,485
  13,382
  14,313
  15,281
  16,288
  17,335
  18,424
  19,559
  20,740
  21,972
Variable operating expenses, $m
  862
  1,052
  1,268
  1,509
  1,776
  2,068
  2,386
  2,728
  3,093
  3,483
  3,864
  4,298
  4,755
  5,233
  5,733
  6,254
  6,798
  7,363
  7,951
  8,562
  9,198
  9,858
  10,544
  11,257
  11,999
  12,770
  13,573
  14,408
  15,279
  16,186
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
Total operating expenses, $m
  869
  1,059
  1,275
  1,517
  1,784
  2,076
  2,394
  2,736
  3,102
  3,492
  3,873
  4,307
  4,764
  5,242
  5,743
  6,264
  6,808
  7,373
  7,962
  8,573
  9,209
  9,869
  10,556
  11,269
  12,011
  12,782
  13,586
  14,421
  15,292
  16,199
Operating income, $m
  259
  327
  404
  490
  585
  689
  803
  925
  1,055
  1,194
  1,372
  1,527
  1,690
  1,861
  2,039
  2,226
  2,420
  2,622
  2,832
  3,050
  3,277
  3,512
  3,757
  4,012
  4,277
  4,552
  4,839
  5,138
  5,448
  5,772
EBITDA, $m
  336
  414
  503
  602
  712
  833
  964
  1,105
  1,255
  1,416
  1,586
  1,765
  1,953
  2,150
  2,356
  2,571
  2,795
  3,028
  3,271
  3,523
  3,785
  4,057
  4,340
  4,634
  4,940
  5,258
  5,589
  5,934
  6,293
  6,667
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  12
  17
  23
  30
  38
  46
  56
  66
  77
  89
  101
  114
  128
  143
  158
  174
  191
  208
  226
  245
  265
  285
  306
  328
  351
  375
  400
  425
  452
  480
Earnings before tax, $m
  247
  310
  381
  460
  547
  643
  747
  859
  978
  1,106
  1,271
  1,413
  1,562
  1,718
  1,881
  2,052
  2,229
  2,413
  2,605
  2,805
  3,012
  3,227
  3,451
  3,684
  3,926
  4,178
  4,439
  4,712
  4,996
  5,292
Tax expense, $m
  67
  84
  103
  124
  148
  174
  202
  232
  264
  299
  343
  382
  422
  464
  508
  554
  602
  652
  703
  757
  813
  871
  932
  995
  1,060
  1,128
  1,199
  1,272
  1,349
  1,429
Net income, $m
  180
  226
  278
  336
  399
  469
  545
  627
  714
  807
  928
  1,032
  1,140
  1,254
  1,373
  1,498
  1,627
  1,762
  1,902
  2,047
  2,199
  2,356
  2,519
  2,689
  2,866
  3,050
  3,241
  3,440
  3,647
  3,863

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  984
  1,210
  1,465
  1,751
  2,067
  2,413
  2,789
  3,194
  3,627
  4,088
  4,577
  5,091
  5,632
  6,198
  6,790
  7,408
  8,052
  8,722
  9,418
  10,142
  10,895
  11,677
  12,489
  13,334
  14,213
  15,126
  16,077
  17,067
  18,098
  19,172
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  984
  1,210
  1,465
  1,751
  2,067
  2,413
  2,789
  3,194
  3,627
  4,088
  4,577
  5,091
  5,632
  6,198
  6,790
  7,408
  8,052
  8,722
  9,418
  10,142
  10,895
  11,677
  12,489
  13,334
  14,213
  15,126
  16,077
  17,067
  18,098
  19,172
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.146
  1.145
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
  1.146
Average production assets, $m
  459
  564
  683
  817
  964
  1,126
  1,301
  1,490
  1,692
  1,907
  2,135
  2,375
  2,627
  2,891
  3,167
  3,455
  3,756
  4,068
  4,393
  4,731
  5,082
  5,446
  5,825
  6,219
  6,629
  7,055
  7,499
  7,960
  8,441
  8,942
Working capital, $m
  98
  121
  146
  175
  206
  241
  278
  318
  362
  408
  456
  508
  562
  618
  677
  739
  803
  870
  939
  1,011
  1,086
  1,164
  1,245
  1,329
  1,417
  1,508
  1,603
  1,702
  1,804
  1,912
Total debt, $m
  315
  428
  556
  699
  858
  1,031
  1,219
  1,422
  1,639
  1,870
  2,115
  2,373
  2,643
  2,927
  3,224
  3,533
  3,856
  4,191
  4,540
  4,903
  5,280
  5,672
  6,079
  6,502
  6,942
  7,400
  7,876
  8,372
  8,889
  9,427
Total liabilities, $m
  493
  606
  734
  877
  1,036
  1,209
  1,397
  1,600
  1,817
  2,048
  2,293
  2,551
  2,822
  3,105
  3,402
  3,712
  4,034
  4,370
  4,719
  5,081
  5,458
  5,850
  6,257
  6,680
  7,120
  7,578
  8,055
  8,551
  9,067
  9,605
Total equity, $m
  491
  604
  731
  874
  1,031
  1,204
  1,392
  1,594
  1,810
  2,040
  2,284
  2,541
  2,810
  3,093
  3,388
  3,697
  4,018
  4,352
  4,700
  5,061
  5,436
  5,827
  6,232
  6,654
  7,092
  7,548
  8,022
  8,516
  9,031
  9,567
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  984
  1,210
  1,465
  1,751
  2,067
  2,413
  2,789
  3,194
  3,627
  4,088
  4,577
  5,092
  5,632
  6,198
  6,790
  7,409
  8,052
  8,722
  9,419
  10,142
  10,894
  11,677
  12,489
  13,334
  14,212
  15,126
  16,077
  17,067
  18,098
  19,172
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.640
  0.710
  0.760
  0.800
  0.830
  0.860
  0.880
  0.890
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  180
  226
  278
  336
  399
  469
  545
  627
  714
  807
  928
  1,032
  1,140
  1,254
  1,373
  1,498
  1,627
  1,762
  1,902
  2,047
  2,199
  2,356
  2,519
  2,689
  2,866
  3,050
  3,241
  3,440
  3,647
  3,863
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  77
  87
  99
  113
  127
  144
  161
  180
  200
  222
  213
  237
  263
  289
  317
  346
  376
  407
  439
  473
  508
  545
  583
  622
  663
  706
  750
  796
  844
  894
Funds from operations, $m
  257
  314
  377
  448
  527
  613
  706
  807
  914
  1,029
  1,141
  1,269
  1,403
  1,543
  1,690
  1,843
  2,003
  2,169
  2,341
  2,520
  2,707
  2,901
  3,102
  3,311
  3,529
  3,755
  3,991
  4,236
  4,491
  4,758
Change in working capital, $m
  20
  22
  25
  28
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
Cash from operations, $m
  238
  291
  352
  420
  495
  578
  669
  766
  871
  983
  1,093
  1,218
  1,349
  1,487
  1,631
  1,782
  1,938
  2,102
  2,272
  2,448
  2,632
  2,823
  3,021
  3,227
  3,441
  3,664
  3,896
  4,137
  4,389
  4,651
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -46
  -56
  -68
  -82
  -96
  -113
  -130
  -149
  -169
  -191
  -213
  -237
  -263
  -289
  -317
  -346
  -376
  -407
  -439
  -473
  -508
  -545
  -583
  -622
  -663
  -706
  -750
  -796
  -844
New CAPEX, $m
  -92
  -105
  -119
  -133
  -147
  -161
  -175
  -189
  -202
  -215
  -228
  -240
  -252
  -264
  -276
  -288
  -300
  -312
  -325
  -338
  -351
  -365
  -379
  -394
  -410
  -426
  -443
  -462
  -481
  -501
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -129
  -151
  -175
  -201
  -229
  -257
  -288
  -319
  -351
  -384
  -419
  -453
  -489
  -527
  -565
  -605
  -646
  -688
  -732
  -777
  -824
  -873
  -924
  -977
  -1,032
  -1,089
  -1,149
  -1,212
  -1,277
  -1,345
Free cash flow, $m
  109
  140
  176
  218
  266
  321
  381
  448
  520
  599
  674
  764
  859
  960
  1,066
  1,177
  1,293
  1,414
  1,540
  1,671
  1,808
  1,950
  2,097
  2,250
  2,410
  2,575
  2,747
  2,926
  3,112
  3,305
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  98
  113
  128
  143
  158
  173
  188
  203
  217
  231
  245
  258
  271
  284
  297
  309
  322
  336
  349
  363
  377
  392
  407
  423
  440
  458
  476
  496
  517
  538
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  98
  113
  128
  143
  158
  173
  188
  203
  217
  231
  245
  258
  271
  284
  297
  309
  322
  336
  349
  363
  377
  392
  407
  423
  440
  458
  476
  496
  517
  538
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  207
  253
  304
  361
  425
  494
  569
  650
  737
  830
  919
  1,022
  1,130
  1,244
  1,362
  1,486
  1,615
  1,749
  1,889
  2,034
  2,185
  2,342
  2,504
  2,674
  2,850
  3,033
  3,223
  3,422
  3,628
  3,844
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -98
  -113
  -127
  -143
  -158
  -173
  -188
  -202
  -216
  -230
  -244
  -257
  -270
  -283
  -295
  -308
  -321
  -334
  -348
  -361
  -375
  -390
  -406
  -422
  -438
  -456
  -474
  -494
  -515
  -536
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  116
  125
  134
  143
  153
  163
  173
  184
  196
  207
Cash available for distribution, $m
  109
  140
  177
  219
  267
  321
  382
  448
  521
  599
  675
  765
  861
  961
  1,067
  1,178
  1,294
  1,415
  1,541
  1,673
  1,809
  1,951
  2,099
  2,252
  2,411
  2,577
  2,749
  2,928
  3,114
  3,307
Discount rate, %
  4.40
  4.62
  4.85
  5.09
  5.35
  5.62
  5.90
  6.19
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  105
  128
  153
  179
  206
  231
  256
  277
  296
  310
  315
  320
  320
  315
  305
  290
  272
  251
  228
  203
  178
  153
  130
  107
  87
  70
  54
  41
  31
  22
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

American Outdoor Brands Corporation, formerly Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation, is a manufacturer of firearms and a provider of accessory products for the shooting, hunting and outdoor enthusiast. The Company operates through two segments. The Firearms segment manufactures handgun and long gun products sold under the Smith & Wesson, M&P and Thompson/Center Arms brands, as well as providing forging, machining and precision plastic injection molding services. The Outdoor Products & Accessories segment provides shooting, hunting and outdoor accessories, including reloading, gunsmithing, gun cleaning supplies, tree saws, vault accessories, knives, laser sighting systems and tactical lighting products. Brands in Outdoor Products & Accessories include Crimson Trace, Caldwell Shooting Supplies, Wheeler Engineering, Lockdown Vault Accessories, BOG POD and Golden Rod Moisture Control, as well as knives and specialty tools under Schrade, Old Timer, Uncle Henry and Imperial.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Outdoor Brands (AOBC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 4.3
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 24.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 53.7%
Total Debt to Equity 55.5%
Interest Coverage 25
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 18.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Return On Total Capital 23.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Return On Equity 36.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.2%
EBITDA Margin 27.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.6%
Operating Margin 22.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Net Profit Margin 14.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Effective Tax Rate 33%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35%
Payout Ratio 0%

AOBC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AOBC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $903 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Outdoor Brands. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of American Outdoor Brands. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AOBC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 24.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.4%, whose default value for AOBC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Outdoor Brands, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Outdoor Brands.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AOBC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $7 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AOBC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for American Outdoor Brands.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Outdoor Brands. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AOBC stock is equal to 1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AOBC are equal to 40.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Outdoor Brands operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AOBC is equal to 8.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $393 million for American Outdoor Brands - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 56 million for American Outdoor Brands is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Outdoor Brands at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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