Intrinsic value of A.O. Smith - AOS

Previous Close

$67.04

  Intrinsic Value

$69.02

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+3%

Previous close

$67.04

 
Intrinsic value

$69.02

 
Up/down potential

+3%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AOS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.87
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.35
  8.02
  7.72
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
Revenue, $m
  2,686
  2,944
  3,213
  3,493
  3,785
  4,089
  4,404
  4,732
  5,073
  5,427
  5,795
  6,177
  6,575
  6,990
  7,421
  7,870
  8,338
  8,826
  9,335
  9,866
  10,421
  11,000
  11,606
  12,238
  12,900
  13,593
  14,317
  15,076
  15,870
  16,701
  17,573
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,753
  1,908
  2,071
  2,240
  2,415
  2,598
  2,787
  2,985
  3,190
  3,403
  3,575
  3,805
  4,045
  4,294
  4,554
  4,825
  5,107
  5,402
  5,709
  6,030
  6,366
  6,716
  7,082
  7,465
  7,866
  8,285
  8,724
  9,184
  9,665
  10,169
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  650
  666
  683
  700
  717
  735
  754
  772
  792
  812
  832
  853
  874
  896
  918
  941
  965
  989
  1,014
  1,039
  1,065
  1,091
  1,119
  1,147
  1,175
  1,205
  1,235
  1,266
  1,297
  1,330
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,223
  2,403
  2,574
  2,754
  2,940
  3,132
  3,333
  3,541
  3,757
  3,982
  4,215
  4,407
  4,658
  4,919
  5,190
  5,472
  5,766
  6,072
  6,391
  6,723
  7,069
  7,431
  7,807
  8,201
  8,612
  9,041
  9,490
  9,959
  10,450
  10,962
  11,499
Operating income, $m
  463
  541
  638
  740
  846
  956
  1,071
  1,191
  1,316
  1,445
  1,581
  1,771
  1,918
  2,071
  2,231
  2,398
  2,572
  2,754
  2,944
  3,143
  3,352
  3,570
  3,798
  4,038
  4,288
  4,551
  4,827
  5,117
  5,420
  5,739
  6,074
EBITDA, $m
  528
  635
  736
  842
  952
  1,067
  1,187
  1,311
  1,441
  1,576
  1,717
  1,864
  2,017
  2,176
  2,342
  2,516
  2,697
  2,887
  3,085
  3,292
  3,508
  3,735
  3,973
  4,222
  4,483
  4,756
  5,043
  5,344
  5,659
  5,991
  6,338
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  11
  16
  21
  26
  31
  36
  42
  48
  54
  60
  67
  73
  81
  88
  96
  104
  112
  121
  130
  139
  149
  160
  170
  182
  193
  206
  219
  232
  246
  261
Earnings before tax, $m
  463
  530
  623
  719
  820
  925
  1,035
  1,149
  1,268
  1,392
  1,521
  1,704
  1,844
  1,990
  2,143
  2,302
  2,468
  2,642
  2,823
  3,013
  3,212
  3,421
  3,639
  3,867
  4,107
  4,358
  4,621
  4,898
  5,188
  5,493
  5,813
Tax expense, $m
  136
  143
  168
  194
  221
  250
  279
  310
  342
  376
  411
  460
  498
  537
  579
  622
  666
  713
  762
  814
  867
  924
  982
  1,044
  1,109
  1,177
  1,248
  1,322
  1,401
  1,483
  1,569
Net income, $m
  327
  387
  455
  525
  599
  675
  755
  839
  926
  1,016
  1,110
  1,244
  1,346
  1,453
  1,564
  1,680
  1,802
  1,929
  2,061
  2,200
  2,345
  2,497
  2,656
  2,823
  2,998
  3,181
  3,374
  3,576
  3,787
  4,010
  4,243

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  755
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,891
  2,342
  2,556
  2,779
  3,011
  3,253
  3,504
  3,764
  4,036
  4,317
  4,610
  4,914
  5,231
  5,561
  5,904
  6,261
  6,633
  7,022
  7,426
  7,849
  8,290
  8,751
  9,233
  9,736
  10,263
  10,814
  11,390
  11,993
  12,625
  13,287
  13,980
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,136
  2,342
  2,556
  2,779
  3,011
  3,253
  3,504
  3,764
  4,036
  4,317
  4,610
  4,914
  5,231
  5,561
  5,904
  6,261
  6,633
  7,022
  7,426
  7,849
  8,290
  8,751
  9,233
  9,736
  10,263
  10,814
  11,390
  11,993
  12,625
  13,287
  13,980
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
  1.257
Average production assets, $m
  752
  824
  900
  978
  1,060
  1,145
  1,233
  1,325
  1,420
  1,519
  1,623
  1,730
  1,841
  1,957
  2,078
  2,204
  2,335
  2,471
  2,614
  2,763
  2,918
  3,080
  3,250
  3,427
  3,612
  3,806
  4,009
  4,221
  4,444
  4,676
  4,920
Working capital, $m
  796
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  91
  98
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  142
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  232
  245
  258
  271
  286
  301
  316
Total debt, $m
  324
  449
  586
  729
  878
  1,033
  1,194
  1,361
  1,535
  1,715
  1,903
  2,098
  2,301
  2,512
  2,732
  2,961
  3,200
  3,449
  3,708
  3,979
  4,262
  4,558
  4,866
  5,189
  5,526
  5,879
  6,249
  6,636
  7,041
  7,465
  7,909
Total liabilities, $m
  1,376
  1,501
  1,638
  1,781
  1,930
  2,085
  2,246
  2,413
  2,587
  2,767
  2,955
  3,150
  3,353
  3,564
  3,784
  4,013
  4,252
  4,501
  4,760
  5,031
  5,314
  5,610
  5,918
  6,241
  6,578
  6,931
  7,301
  7,688
  8,093
  8,517
  8,961
Total equity, $m
  1,515
  841
  918
  998
  1,081
  1,168
  1,258
  1,351
  1,449
  1,550
  1,655
  1,764
  1,878
  1,996
  2,119
  2,248
  2,381
  2,521
  2,666
  2,818
  2,976
  3,142
  3,315
  3,495
  3,684
  3,882
  4,089
  4,306
  4,532
  4,770
  5,019
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,891
  2,342
  2,556
  2,779
  3,011
  3,253
  3,504
  3,764
  4,036
  4,317
  4,610
  4,914
  5,231
  5,560
  5,903
  6,261
  6,633
  7,022
  7,426
  7,849
  8,290
  8,752
  9,233
  9,736
  10,262
  10,813
  11,390
  11,994
  12,625
  13,287
  13,980
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.214
  0.530
  0.640
  0.730
  0.810
  0.880
  0.950
  1.010
  1.060
  1.110
  1.150
  1.190
  1.230
  1.260
  1.290
  1.320
  1.340
  1.370
  1.390
  1.410
  1.430
  1.450
  1.470
  1.480
  1.500
  1.510
  1.530
  1.540
  1.550
  1.560
  1.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.356
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  327
  387
  455
  525
  599
  675
  755
  839
  926
  1,016
  1,110
  1,244
  1,346
  1,453
  1,564
  1,680
  1,802
  1,929
  2,061
  2,200
  2,345
  2,497
  2,656
  2,823
  2,998
  3,181
  3,374
  3,576
  3,787
  4,010
  4,243
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  65
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  126
  131
  136
  93
  99
  105
  112
  118
  126
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  194
  205
  216
  227
  239
  251
  265
Funds from operations, $m
  501
  481
  552
  627
  705
  786
  871
  959
  1,051
  1,147
  1,246
  1,337
  1,445
  1,558
  1,676
  1,799
  1,927
  2,061
  2,202
  2,348
  2,502
  2,663
  2,831
  3,007
  3,192
  3,386
  3,589
  3,802
  4,026
  4,261
  4,508
Change in working capital, $m
  54
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  447
  476
  547
  622
  700
  781
  865
  953
  1,045
  1,140
  1,240
  1,330
  1,438
  1,551
  1,668
  1,791
  1,919
  2,053
  2,193
  2,339
  2,492
  2,652
  2,820
  2,996
  3,180
  3,373
  3,576
  3,789
  4,012
  4,246
  4,492
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -118
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -251
New CAPEX, $m
  -81
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -300
  -112
  -119
  -127
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -249
  -263
  -276
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -388
  -408
  -428
  -449
  -472
  -495
Free cash flow, $m
  147
  363
  428
  495
  565
  639
  715
  795
  878
  965
  1,055
  1,136
  1,234
  1,336
  1,442
  1,553
  1,669
  1,790
  1,917
  2,050
  2,188
  2,333
  2,485
  2,644
  2,811
  2,985
  3,169
  3,361
  3,563
  3,774
  3,997
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  74
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
  271
  283
  295
  309
  323
  337
  353
  369
  387
  405
  424
  444
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -130
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -56
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
  271
  283
  295
  309
  323
  337
  353
  369
  387
  405
  424
  444
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  91
  495
  565
  638
  714
  794
  876
  962
  1,052
  1,145
  1,243
  1,331
  1,437
  1,547
  1,662
  1,782
  1,908
  2,039
  2,177
  2,320
  2,471
  2,629
  2,794
  2,967
  3,148
  3,338
  3,538
  3,748
  3,968
  4,198
  4,441
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -73
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -249
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  748
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,170
  488
  558
  631
  707
  786
  869
  955
  1,044
  1,138
  1,222
  1,323
  1,429
  1,539
  1,654
  1,774
  1,900
  2,031
  2,169
  2,313
  2,463
  2,621
  2,786
  2,959
  3,141
  3,331
  3,531
  3,741
  3,961
  4,192
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,121
  447
  485
  519
  548
  571
  587
  597
  600
  596
  580
  565
  543
  517
  486
  451
  413
  374
  334
  294
  255
  217
  183
  151
  122
  97
  76
  58
  43
  32
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

A. O. Smith Corporation operates through two segments: North America and Rest of World. The Company's Rest of World segment primarily consists of China, Europe and India. Both segments manufacture and market comprehensive lines of residential and commercial gas, gas tankless and electric water heaters, as well as water treatment products. Both segments primarily manufacture and market in their respective regions of the world. Its North America segment manufactures and globally markets specialty commercial water heating equipment, condensing and non-condensing boilers and water systems tanks. It also manufactures and markets in-home air purification products in China. It serves residential and commercial end markets in North America with a range of products, which include water heaters, boilers and other. It supplies water heaters to the residential market in China with a broad product offering, including electric, gas, gas tankless, heat pump and solar units, as well as combi boilers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  A.O. Smith (AOS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 35.6
Price to Sales 4.3
Price to Book 7.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 26
Price to Free Cash Flow 31.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 11%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 108
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 20.9%
Total Debt to Equity 21.4%
Interest Coverage 67
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Return On Total Capital 18.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Return On Equity 22.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.3%
EBITDA Margin 19.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Operating Margin 17.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 17.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Net Profit Margin 12.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Effective Tax Rate 29.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Payout Ratio 25.7%

AOS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AOS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2686 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by A.O. Smith. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of A.O. Smith. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AOS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AOS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of A.O. Smith, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of A.O. Smith.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AOS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 59.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $634 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AOS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for A.O. Smith.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for A.O. Smith. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AOS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AOS are equal to 28%.

Life of production assets of 18.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in A.O. Smith operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AOS is equal to 1.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1515 million for A.O. Smith - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 172.813 million for A.O. Smith is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of A.O. Smith at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $11.6 billion.

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Financial statements of AOS
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