Intrinsic value of Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. - APD

Previous Close

$229.87

  Intrinsic Value

$80.74

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

Previous close

$229.87

 
Intrinsic value

$80.74

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of APD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 50.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  9,109
  9,318
  9,558
  9,826
  10,124
  10,451
  10,807
  11,192
  11,608
  12,053
  12,530
  13,038
  13,579
  14,155
  14,766
  15,413
  16,098
  16,822
  17,587
  18,395
  19,248
  20,147
  21,095
  22,094
  23,146
  24,253
  25,419
  26,645
  27,936
  29,293
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,657
  2,716
  2,782
  2,857
  2,940
  3,031
  3,130
  3,237
  3,353
  3,477
  3,486
  3,628
  3,779
  3,939
  4,109
  4,289
  4,479
  4,681
  4,894
  5,119
  5,356
  5,606
  5,870
  6,148
  6,440
  6,749
  7,073
  7,414
  7,773
  8,151
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  4,549
  4,649
  4,751
  4,856
  4,963
  5,072
  5,183
  5,297
  5,414
  5,533
  5,655
  5,779
  5,906
  6,036
  6,169
  6,305
  6,444
  6,585
  6,730
  6,878
  7,030
  7,184
  7,342
  7,504
  7,669
  7,838
  8,010
  8,186
  8,366
  8,550
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,206
  7,365
  7,533
  7,713
  7,903
  8,103
  8,313
  8,534
  8,767
  9,010
  9,141
  9,407
  9,685
  9,975
  10,278
  10,594
  10,923
  11,266
  11,624
  11,997
  12,386
  12,790
  13,212
  13,652
  14,109
  14,587
  15,083
  15,600
  16,139
  16,701
Operating income, $m
  1,902
  1,954
  2,024
  2,114
  2,222
  2,349
  2,494
  2,658
  2,841
  3,043
  3,388
  3,631
  3,895
  4,180
  4,488
  4,819
  5,175
  5,556
  5,963
  6,398
  6,863
  7,357
  7,883
  8,442
  9,036
  9,667
  10,336
  11,045
  11,796
  12,592
EBITDA, $m
  2,956
  3,028
  3,123
  3,240
  3,379
  3,539
  3,720
  3,924
  4,149
  4,397
  4,668
  4,963
  5,282
  5,626
  5,996
  6,393
  6,819
  7,274
  7,760
  8,277
  8,829
  9,415
  10,038
  10,699
  11,401
  12,144
  12,932
  13,766
  14,650
  15,584
Interest expense (income), $m
  126
  206
  215
  225
  236
  249
  263
  278
  295
  314
  333
  355
  377
  401
  427
  455
  484
  514
  547
  581
  618
  656
  697
  739
  785
  832
  882
  935
  990
  1,048
  1,110
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,697
  1,739
  1,800
  1,878
  1,973
  2,086
  2,215
  2,363
  2,527
  2,710
  3,034
  3,254
  3,493
  3,753
  4,033
  4,336
  4,660
  5,009
  5,382
  5,781
  6,206
  6,660
  7,143
  7,658
  8,204
  8,785
  9,401
  10,055
  10,748
  11,482
Tax expense, $m
  458
  470
  486
  507
  533
  563
  598
  638
  682
  732
  819
  878
  943
  1,013
  1,089
  1,171
  1,258
  1,352
  1,453
  1,561
  1,676
  1,798
  1,929
  2,068
  2,215
  2,372
  2,538
  2,715
  2,902
  3,100
Net income, $m
  1,238
  1,269
  1,314
  1,371
  1,440
  1,523
  1,617
  1,725
  1,845
  1,978
  2,215
  2,375
  2,550
  2,739
  2,944
  3,165
  3,402
  3,656
  3,929
  4,220
  4,531
  4,862
  5,215
  5,590
  5,989
  6,413
  6,863
  7,340
  7,846
  8,382

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  18,438
  18,863
  19,347
  19,892
  20,495
  21,156
  21,877
  22,657
  23,497
  24,399
  25,363
  26,393
  27,489
  28,654
  29,890
  31,200
  32,586
  34,052
  35,602
  37,237
  38,964
  40,784
  42,703
  44,724
  46,853
  49,095
  51,455
  53,938
  56,550
  59,297
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  18,438
  18,863
  19,347
  19,892
  20,495
  21,156
  21,877
  22,657
  23,497
  24,399
  25,363
  26,393
  27,489
  28,654
  29,890
  31,200
  32,586
  34,052
  35,602
  37,237
  38,964
  40,784
  42,703
  44,724
  46,853
  49,095
  51,455
  53,938
  56,550
  59,297
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
Average production assets, $m
  9,956
  10,185
  10,446
  10,740
  11,066
  11,423
  11,812
  12,233
  12,687
  13,174
  13,695
  14,251
  14,842
  15,471
  16,139
  16,846
  17,595
  18,386
  19,223
  20,106
  21,038
  22,021
  23,057
  24,148
  25,298
  26,508
  27,783
  29,123
  30,534
  32,017
Working capital, $m
  237
  242
  248
  255
  263
  272
  281
  291
  302
  313
  326
  339
  353
  368
  384
  401
  419
  437
  457
  478
  500
  524
  548
  574
  602
  631
  661
  693
  726
  762
Total debt, $m
  3,973
  4,158
  4,369
  4,606
  4,868
  5,156
  5,469
  5,808
  6,174
  6,566
  6,986
  7,434
  7,910
  8,417
  8,955
  9,525
  10,128
  10,765
  11,439
  12,151
  12,902
  13,694
  14,528
  15,408
  16,334
  17,309
  18,335
  19,416
  20,552
  21,747
Total liabilities, $m
  8,021
  8,205
  8,416
  8,653
  8,915
  9,203
  9,516
  9,856
  10,221
  10,613
  11,033
  11,481
  11,958
  12,464
  13,002
  13,572
  14,175
  14,813
  15,487
  16,198
  16,949
  17,741
  18,576
  19,455
  20,381
  21,356
  22,383
  23,463
  24,599
  25,794
Total equity, $m
  10,418
  10,657
  10,931
  11,239
  11,579
  11,953
  12,360
  12,801
  13,276
  13,785
  14,330
  14,912
  15,531
  16,189
  16,888
  17,628
  18,411
  19,240
  20,115
  21,039
  22,014
  23,043
  24,127
  25,269
  26,472
  27,739
  29,072
  30,475
  31,951
  33,503
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  18,439
  18,862
  19,347
  19,892
  20,494
  21,156
  21,876
  22,657
  23,497
  24,398
  25,363
  26,393
  27,489
  28,653
  29,890
  31,200
  32,586
  34,053
  35,602
  37,237
  38,963
  40,784
  42,703
  44,724
  46,853
  49,095
  51,455
  53,938
  56,550
  59,297
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,238
  1,269
  1,314
  1,371
  1,440
  1,523
  1,617
  1,725
  1,845
  1,978
  2,215
  2,375
  2,550
  2,739
  2,944
  3,165
  3,402
  3,656
  3,929
  4,220
  4,531
  4,862
  5,215
  5,590
  5,989
  6,413
  6,863
  7,340
  7,846
  8,382
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,053
  1,075
  1,099
  1,126
  1,157
  1,190
  1,227
  1,266
  1,308
  1,354
  1,280
  1,332
  1,387
  1,446
  1,508
  1,574
  1,644
  1,718
  1,797
  1,879
  1,966
  2,058
  2,155
  2,257
  2,364
  2,477
  2,596
  2,722
  2,854
  2,992
Funds from operations, $m
  2,292
  2,344
  2,413
  2,497
  2,597
  2,713
  2,844
  2,991
  3,153
  3,332
  3,494
  3,707
  3,937
  4,185
  4,453
  4,739
  5,046
  5,375
  5,725
  6,099
  6,497
  6,920
  7,370
  7,847
  8,353
  8,890
  9,459
  10,062
  10,699
  11,374
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
Cash from operations, $m
  2,287
  2,339
  2,406
  2,490
  2,590
  2,704
  2,835
  2,981
  3,143
  3,321
  3,482
  3,694
  3,923
  4,170
  4,437
  4,722
  5,029
  5,356
  5,705
  6,078
  6,475
  6,897
  7,345
  7,821
  8,326
  8,861
  9,429
  10,030
  10,666
  11,339
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -912
  -930
  -952
  -976
  -1,004
  -1,034
  -1,068
  -1,104
  -1,143
  -1,186
  -1,231
  -1,280
  -1,332
  -1,387
  -1,446
  -1,508
  -1,574
  -1,644
  -1,718
  -1,797
  -1,879
  -1,966
  -2,058
  -2,155
  -2,257
  -2,364
  -2,477
  -2,596
  -2,722
  -2,854
New CAPEX, $m
  -194
  -229
  -262
  -294
  -326
  -357
  -389
  -421
  -454
  -487
  -521
  -556
  -592
  -629
  -667
  -707
  -749
  -792
  -837
  -883
  -932
  -983
  -1,036
  -1,092
  -1,150
  -1,210
  -1,274
  -1,341
  -1,410
  -1,484
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,106
  -1,159
  -1,214
  -1,270
  -1,330
  -1,391
  -1,457
  -1,525
  -1,597
  -1,673
  -1,752
  -1,836
  -1,924
  -2,016
  -2,113
  -2,215
  -2,323
  -2,436
  -2,555
  -2,680
  -2,811
  -2,949
  -3,094
  -3,247
  -3,407
  -3,574
  -3,751
  -3,937
  -4,132
  -4,338
Free cash flow, $m
  1,180
  1,179
  1,193
  1,220
  1,260
  1,313
  1,378
  1,456
  1,546
  1,648
  1,730
  1,858
  1,999
  2,154
  2,323
  2,507
  2,706
  2,920
  3,151
  3,398
  3,664
  3,948
  4,251
  4,575
  4,920
  5,287
  5,677
  6,093
  6,534
  7,001
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  161
  184
  211
  237
  262
  288
  313
  339
  366
  392
  420
  448
  477
  507
  538
  570
  603
  638
  674
  712
  751
  792
  835
  879
  926
  975
  1,026
  1,080
  1,136
  1,195
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  161
  184
  211
  237
  262
  288
  313
  339
  366
  392
  420
  448
  477
  507
  538
  570
  603
  638
  674
  712
  751
  792
  835
  879
  926
  975
  1,026
  1,080
  1,136
  1,195
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,341
  1,364
  1,404
  1,457
  1,522
  1,601
  1,691
  1,795
  1,911
  2,040
  2,150
  2,306
  2,476
  2,661
  2,861
  3,077
  3,309
  3,558
  3,825
  4,110
  4,414
  4,739
  5,086
  5,454
  5,846
  6,262
  6,704
  7,173
  7,670
  8,197
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -198
  -240
  -274
  -307
  -341
  -374
  -407
  -441
  -475
  -509
  -545
  -582
  -619
  -658
  -698
  -740
  -783
  -828
  -875
  -924
  -975
  -1,028
  -1,084
  -1,142
  -1,203
  -1,267
  -1,333
  -1,403
  -1,476
  -1,552
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  638
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,781
  1,124
  1,130
  1,149
  1,182
  1,227
  1,284
  1,354
  1,436
  1,531
  1,605
  1,724
  1,857
  2,003
  2,163
  2,337
  2,525
  2,729
  2,949
  3,186
  3,439
  3,711
  4,001
  4,312
  4,643
  4,995
  5,371
  5,770
  6,194
  6,644
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,707
  1,029
  983
  946
  916
  890
  868
  846
  825
  803
  762
  736
  706
  672
  635
  594
  549
  503
  454
  405
  356
  308
  262
  220
  181
  146
  115
  89
  68
  50
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., is an industrial gases company. The Company's Industrial Gases business provides atmospheric and process gases and related equipment to manufacturing markets, including refining and petrochemical, metals, electronics, and food and beverage. The Company is also a supplier of liquefied natural gas process technology and equipment. The Company operates through five segments: Industrial Gases-Americas, Industrial Gases-Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), Industrial Gases-Asia, Industrial Gases-Global, and Corporate and other.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.7
Price to Sales 6.1
Price to Book 5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 32
Price to Free Cash Flow 95.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 33.7%
Total Debt to Equity 39.3%
Interest Coverage 12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 17%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Total Capital 22.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Return On Equity 35%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.7%
EBITDA Margin 29.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Operating Margin 17.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 17.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Net Profit Margin 36.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Effective Tax Rate 18.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Payout Ratio 26.3%

APD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the APD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8930 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our APD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for APD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Air Products and Chemicals, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of APD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 29.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $4451 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for APD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Air Products and Chemicals, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the APD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for APD are equal to 109.3%.

Life of production assets of 10.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for APD is equal to 2.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $10857.5 million for Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 219.638 million for Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $50.5 billion.

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