Intrinsic value of AppFolio - APPF

Previous Close

$50.00

  Intrinsic Value

$36.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-26%

  Value-price divergence*

+5000%

Previous close

$50.00

 
Intrinsic value

$36.96

 
Up/down potential

-26%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+5000%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of APPF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  41.33
  38.50
  35.15
  32.14
  29.42
  26.98
  24.78
  22.80
  21.02
  19.42
  17.98
  16.68
  15.51
  14.46
  13.52
  12.66
  11.90
  11.21
  10.59
  10.03
  9.53
  9.07
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
Revenue, $m
  106
  147
  198
  262
  339
  431
  538
  660
  799
  954
  1,126
  1,314
  1,517
  1,737
  1,971
  2,221
  2,485
  2,764
  3,056
  3,363
  3,683
  4,018
  4,366
  4,728
  5,105
  5,496
  5,903
  6,326
  6,766
  7,223
  7,698
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  113
  153
  202
  261
  331
  413
  507
  614
  733
  865
  1,008
  1,164
  1,333
  1,513
  1,704
  1,907
  2,121
  2,346
  2,581
  2,827
  3,083
  3,350
  3,628
  3,917
  4,218
  4,530
  4,855
  5,192
  5,543
  5,907
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  69
Total operating expenses, $m
  114
  147
  188
  238
  297
  368
  451
  546
  654
  774
  907
  1,051
  1,208
  1,378
  1,560
  1,752
  1,956
  2,171
  2,397
  2,634
  2,881
  3,138
  3,407
  3,686
  3,977
  4,279
  4,593
  4,919
  5,258
  5,611
  5,976
Operating income, $m
  -8
  0
  11
  25
  42
  62
  86
  114
  145
  180
  219
  262
  309
  358
  412
  469
  529
  593
  659
  729
  803
  879
  959
  1,042
  1,128
  1,217
  1,310
  1,407
  1,508
  1,613
  1,721
EBITDA, $m
  2
  7
  20
  37
  58
  82
  111
  144
  181
  223
  270
  321
  376
  436
  499
  567
  639
  715
  795
  879
  966
  1,057
  1,152
  1,251
  1,354
  1,461
  1,573
  1,688
  1,808
  1,933
  2,063
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
Earnings before tax, $m
  -8
  0
  10
  24
  41
  60
  84
  110
  141
  175
  212
  254
  299
  348
  400
  455
  513
  575
  639
  707
  778
  852
  929
  1,009
  1,093
  1,179
  1,270
  1,363
  1,461
  1,562
  1,667
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  3
  6
  11
  16
  23
  30
  38
  47
  57
  69
  81
  94
  108
  123
  139
  155
  173
  191
  210
  230
  251
  272
  295
  318
  343
  368
  394
  422
  450
Net income, $m
  -8
  0
  8
  18
  30
  44
  61
  81
  103
  128
  155
  186
  219
  254
  292
  332
  375
  419
  467
  516
  568
  622
  678
  737
  798
  861
  927
  995
  1,066
  1,140
  1,217

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  93
  93
  125
  166
  214
  272
  340
  417
  505
  603
  712
  830
  959
  1,098
  1,246
  1,404
  1,571
  1,747
  1,932
  2,126
  2,328
  2,540
  2,760
  2,989
  3,227
  3,474
  3,732
  3,999
  4,277
  4,566
  4,866
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  67
  93
  125
  166
  214
  272
  340
  417
  505
  603
  712
  830
  959
  1,098
  1,246
  1,404
  1,571
  1,747
  1,932
  2,126
  2,328
  2,540
  2,760
  2,989
  3,227
  3,474
  3,732
  3,999
  4,277
  4,566
  4,866
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.582
  1.581
  1.584
  1.578
  1.584
  1.585
  1.582
  1.583
  1.582
  1.582
  1.581
  1.583
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
Average production assets, $m
  24
  33
  44
  58
  75
  96
  119
  147
  177
  212
  250
  292
  337
  386
  438
  493
  552
  614
  679
  747
  818
  892
  969
  1,050
  1,133
  1,220
  1,311
  1,404
  1,502
  1,603
  1,709
Working capital, $m
  11
  -21
  -28
  -37
  -48
  -61
  -76
  -94
  -113
  -135
  -160
  -187
  -215
  -247
  -280
  -315
  -353
  -392
  -434
  -478
  -523
  -570
  -620
  -671
  -725
  -780
  -838
  -898
  -961
  -1,026
  -1,093
Total debt, $m
  0
  9
  20
  34
  51
  70
  94
  120
  150
  184
  221
  262
  306
  354
  404
  459
  516
  576
  640
  706
  776
  848
  924
  1,002
  1,084
  1,169
  1,257
  1,349
  1,444
  1,543
  1,646
Total liabilities, $m
  23
  32
  43
  57
  74
  93
  117
  143
  173
  207
  244
  285
  329
  377
  427
  482
  539
  599
  663
  729
  799
  871
  947
  1,025
  1,107
  1,192
  1,280
  1,372
  1,467
  1,566
  1,669
Total equity, $m
  70
  61
  82
  109
  141
  179
  223
  274
  332
  396
  468
  546
  630
  721
  819
  922
  1,032
  1,148
  1,269
  1,397
  1,530
  1,668
  1,813
  1,964
  2,120
  2,283
  2,452
  2,627
  2,810
  3,000
  3,197
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  93
  93
  125
  166
  215
  272
  340
  417
  505
  603
  712
  831
  959
  1,098
  1,246
  1,404
  1,571
  1,747
  1,932
  2,126
  2,329
  2,539
  2,760
  2,989
  3,227
  3,475
  3,732
  3,999
  4,277
  4,566
  4,866
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.140
  0.240
  0.310
  0.360
  0.390
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -8
  0
  8
  18
  30
  44
  61
  81
  103
  128
  155
  186
  219
  254
  292
  332
  375
  419
  467
  516
  568
  622
  678
  737
  798
  861
  927
  995
  1,066
  1,140
  1,217
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  7
  10
  12
  16
  20
  25
  30
  36
  43
  51
  58
  67
  77
  88
  99
  110
  123
  136
  149
  164
  178
  194
  210
  227
  244
  262
  281
  300
  321
  342
Funds from operations, $m
  17
  7
  17
  30
  45
  64
  86
  111
  139
  171
  206
  244
  286
  331
  379
  431
  485
  542
  602
  666
  731
  800
  872
  947
  1,024
  1,105
  1,189
  1,276
  1,367
  1,461
  1,559
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
Cash from operations, $m
  12
  13
  24
  39
  56
  77
  101
  128
  159
  193
  230
  271
  315
  362
  413
  466
  522
  582
  644
  709
  777
  848
  921
  998
  1,078
  1,161
  1,247
  1,336
  1,429
  1,526
  1,626
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -42
  -50
  -58
  -67
  -77
  -88
  -99
  -110
  -123
  -136
  -149
  -164
  -178
  -194
  -210
  -227
  -244
  -262
  -281
  -300
  -321
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -101
  -105
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -29
  -35
  -43
  -51
  -60
  -69
  -80
  -92
  -103
  -116
  -129
  -143
  -158
  -172
  -188
  -204
  -220
  -238
  -255
  -274
  -294
  -314
  -334
  -356
  -379
  -401
  -426
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  -1
  7
  16
  28
  42
  58
  77
  99
  123
  150
  179
  211
  246
  283
  323
  365
  410
  456
  505
  557
  610
  666
  724
  784
  847
  912
  980
  1,051
  1,124
  1,200
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  17
  14
  9
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  26
  25
  23
  19
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  25
  31
  39
  47
  61
  81
  103
  129
  156
  187
  220
  255
  294
  334
  377
  422
  470
  520
  572
  626
  682
  741
  802
  866
  932
  1,001
  1,072
  1,146
  1,223
  1,303
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  3
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -51
  -58
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -197
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  34
  10
  12
  15
  23
  37
  53
  71
  92
  116
  142
  171
  203
  237
  273
  313
  354
  398
  444
  493
  544
  597
  652
  709
  769
  831
  896
  963
  1,033
  1,106
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  32
  9
  11
  12
  18
  27
  36
  44
  53
  61
  67
  73
  77
  79
  80
  79
  77
  73
  68
  63
  56
  50
  43
  36
  30
  24
  19
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.2
  94.1
  93.1
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9

AppFolio, Inc. is a provider of industry-specific, cloud-based software solutions for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in the property management and legal industries. The Company's mobile-optimized software solutions enable its customers to work at any time and from anywhere across multiple devices. Its property management software provides small and medium-sized property managers with an end-to-end solution to their business needs. The Company's legal software provides solo practitioners and small law firms with a streamlined practice and case management solution, allowing them to manage their practices and case load. It also offers Value+ services, such as its professionally designed Websites and electronic payment services. The Company's property manager customers include third-party managers and owner-operators, managing single- and multi-family residences, commercial property and student housing, as well as mixed real estate portfolios.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AppFolio (APPF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -210.8
Price to Sales 15.9
Price to Book 24.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 140.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -562
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 41.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 36.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 30.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.1%
Return On Total Capital -11.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.6%
Return On Equity -11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.6%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.8%
EBITDA Margin 1.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.7%
Operating Margin -7.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.9%
Net Profit Margin -7.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

APPF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the APPF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $106 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AppFolio. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of AppFolio. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our APPF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 38.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for APPF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AppFolio, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AppFolio.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of APPF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $33 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for APPF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for AppFolio.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AppFolio. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the APPF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for APPF are equal to 22.2%.

Life of production assets of 3.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AppFolio operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for APPF is equal to -14.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $70 million for AppFolio - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.971 million for AppFolio is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AppFolio at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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▶ AppFolio beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-08-17 12:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AppFolio, Inc. : August 1, 2017   [Aug-01-17 04:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AppFolio, Inc. : July 12, 2017   [Jul-12-17 02:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AppFolio, Inc. : June 27, 2017   [Jun-27-17 02:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Investor Network: AppFolio Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [May-08-17 07:30AM  Accesswire]
▶ AppFolio posts 1Q profit   [May-05-17 04:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AppFolio, Inc. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 03:48PM  Capital Cube]
▶ AppFolio Wins 2017 Company of the Year   [Mar-27-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ AppFolio reports 4Q loss   [06:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AppFolio, Inc. : January 19, 2017   [Jan-19-17 12:15PM  Capital Cube]
Financial statements of APPF
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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