Intrinsic value of AppFolio - APPF

Previous Close

$43.20

  Intrinsic Value

$30.94

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-28%

Previous close

$43.20

 
Intrinsic value

$30.94

 
Up/down potential

-28%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of APPF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of AppFolio (APPF) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  41.33
  35.70
  32.63
  29.87
  27.38
  25.14
  23.13
  21.32
  19.68
  18.22
  16.89
  15.70
  14.63
  13.67
  12.80
  12.02
  11.32
  10.69
  10.12
  9.61
  9.15
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.79
  6.61
  6.45
Revenue, $m
  106
  144
  191
  248
  316
  395
  486
  590
  706
  835
  976
  1,129
  1,294
  1,471
  1,659
  1,859
  2,069
  2,290
  2,522
  2,765
  3,018
  3,281
  3,555
  3,841
  4,137
  4,445
  4,765
  5,098
  5,444
  5,804
  6,178
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  111
  147
  191
  243
  304
  374
  453
  543
  641
  749
  866
  993
  1,129
  1,273
  1,426
  1,588
  1,758
  1,936
  2,122
  2,316
  2,518
  2,728
  2,947
  3,175
  3,411
  3,657
  3,912
  4,178
  4,454
  4,741
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  69
Total operating expenses, $m
  114
  145
  182
  227
  279
  341
  412
  492
  583
  682
  791
  909
  1,037
  1,174
  1,320
  1,474
  1,637
  1,808
  1,987
  2,175
  2,370
  2,573
  2,785
  3,005
  3,235
  3,472
  3,720
  3,976
  4,244
  4,522
  4,810
Operating income, $m
  -8
  -1
  9
  21
  36
  54
  74
  97
  123
  152
  184
  219
  257
  297
  339
  385
  432
  483
  535
  590
  648
  708
  770
  835
  903
  973
  1,046
  1,122
  1,200
  1,282
  1,368
EBITDA, $m
  2
  6
  18
  33
  51
  72
  96
  124
  155
  190
  228
  269
  314
  362
  413
  467
  524
  584
  647
  713
  782
  853
  928
  1,006
  1,086
  1,170
  1,257
  1,348
  1,442
  1,540
  1,642
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  41
  43
Earnings before tax, $m
  -8
  -1
  9
  21
  35
  52
  72
  94
  120
  148
  178
  213
  249
  288
  329
  373
  419
  468
  519
  572
  628
  686
  746
  809
  874
  942
  1,013
  1,086
  1,163
  1,242
  1,325
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  2
  6
  10
  14
  19
  25
  32
  40
  48
  57
  67
  78
  89
  101
  113
  126
  140
  154
  169
  185
  201
  218
  236
  254
  273
  293
  314
  335
  358
Net income, $m
  -8
  -1
  6
  15
  26
  38
  53
  69
  87
  108
  130
  155
  182
  210
  240
  272
  306
  341
  379
  418
  458
  501
  545
  591
  638
  688
  739
  793
  849
  907
  967

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  93
  91
  121
  157
  199
  250
  307
  373
  446
  528
  617
  714
  818
  930
  1,049
  1,175
  1,308
  1,448
  1,594
  1,748
  1,907
  2,074
  2,247
  2,428
  2,615
  2,810
  3,012
  3,223
  3,441
  3,669
  3,905
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  67
  91
  121
  157
  199
  250
  307
  373
  446
  528
  617
  714
  818
  930
  1,049
  1,175
  1,308
  1,448
  1,594
  1,748
  1,907
  2,074
  2,247
  2,428
  2,615
  2,810
  3,012
  3,223
  3,441
  3,669
  3,905
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.582
  1.582
  1.579
  1.580
  1.588
  1.580
  1.583
  1.582
  1.583
  1.581
  1.582
  1.581
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.581
  1.582
  1.582
  1.583
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
Average production assets, $m
  24
  32
  42
  55
  70
  88
  108
  131
  157
  185
  217
  251
  287
  327
  368
  413
  459
  508
  560
  614
  670
  728
  789
  853
  918
  987
  1,058
  1,132
  1,209
  1,288
  1,372
Working capital, $m
  11
  -20
  -27
  -35
  -45
  -56
  -69
  -84
  -100
  -119
  -139
  -160
  -184
  -209
  -236
  -264
  -294
  -325
  -358
  -393
  -428
  -466
  -505
  -545
  -587
  -631
  -677
  -724
  -773
  -824
  -877
Total debt, $m
  0
  8
  18
  31
  45
  63
  82
  105
  130
  158
  189
  222
  258
  296
  337
  380
  426
  474
  524
  576
  631
  688
  748
  810
  874
  941
  1,010
  1,082
  1,157
  1,235
  1,316
Total liabilities, $m
  23
  31
  41
  54
  68
  86
  105
  128
  153
  181
  212
  245
  281
  319
  360
  403
  449
  497
  547
  599
  654
  711
  771
  833
  897
  964
  1,033
  1,105
  1,180
  1,258
  1,339
Total equity, $m
  70
  60
  79
  103
  131
  164
  202
  245
  293
  347
  405
  469
  537
  611
  689
  772
  859
  951
  1,047
  1,148
  1,253
  1,363
  1,476
  1,595
  1,718
  1,846
  1,979
  2,117
  2,261
  2,410
  2,566
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  93
  91
  120
  157
  199
  250
  307
  373
  446
  528
  617
  714
  818
  930
  1,049
  1,175
  1,308
  1,448
  1,594
  1,747
  1,907
  2,074
  2,247
  2,428
  2,615
  2,810
  3,012
  3,222
  3,441
  3,668
  3,905
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.140
  0.230
  0.300
  0.350
  0.380
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -8
  -1
  6
  15
  26
  38
  53
  69
  87
  108
  130
  155
  182
  210
  240
  272
  306
  341
  379
  418
  458
  501
  545
  591
  638
  688
  739
  793
  849
  907
  967
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  27
  32
  38
  44
  50
  57
  65
  74
  83
  92
  102
  112
  123
  134
  146
  158
  171
  184
  197
  212
  226
  242
  258
  274
Funds from operations, $m
  17
  6
  16
  27
  40
  56
  75
  96
  119
  146
  174
  205
  239
  275
  314
  355
  398
  443
  491
  540
  592
  646
  702
  761
  822
  885
  951
  1,019
  1,090
  1,164
  1,241
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
Cash from operations, $m
  12
  11
  22
  35
  50
  68
  88
  111
  136
  164
  194
  227
  263
  300
  341
  383
  428
  475
  524
  575
  628
  684
  741
  802
  864
  929
  996
  1,067
  1,140
  1,215
  1,294
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -31
  -37
  -43
  -50
  -57
  -65
  -74
  -83
  -92
  -102
  -112
  -123
  -134
  -146
  -158
  -171
  -184
  -197
  -212
  -226
  -242
  -258
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -13
  -16
  -21
  -26
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -52
  -60
  -68
  -77
  -87
  -96
  -107
  -118
  -130
  -141
  -153
  -166
  -179
  -192
  -207
  -221
  -237
  -252
  -268
  -286
  -303
  -322
  -341
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  -2
  5
  14
  24
  36
  50
  66
  84
  104
  126
  150
  176
  204
  233
  265
  298
  334
  370
  409
  449
  491
  535
  580
  628
  677
  728
  781
  836
  894
  954
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  17
  13
  9
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  25
  23
  21
  17
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  23
  29
  35
  41
  53
  70
  88
  109
  132
  157
  183
  212
  242
  274
  308
  344
  381
  421
  461
  504
  548
  594
  642
  692
  744
  797
  853
  911
  972
  1,035
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  3
  -17
  -19
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -149
  -155
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  32
  9
  11
  13
  20
  32
  45
  61
  78
  98
  119
  143
  169
  196
  225
  257
  290
  324
  361
  399
  439
  480
  524
  569
  616
  664
  715
  768
  822
  879
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  31
  8
  10
  11
  16
  23
  31
  38
  45
  51
  57
  61
  64
  66
  66
  65
  63
  60
  56
  51
  45
  40
  34
  29
  24
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.3
  94.3
  93.2
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0
  93.0

AppFolio, Inc. is a provider of industry-specific, cloud-based software solutions for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in the property management and legal industries. The Company's mobile-optimized software solutions enable its customers to work at any time and from anywhere across multiple devices. Its property management software provides small and medium-sized property managers with an end-to-end solution to their business needs. The Company's legal software provides solo practitioners and small law firms with a streamlined practice and case management solution, allowing them to manage their practices and case load. It also offers Value+ services, such as its professionally designed Websites and electronic payment services. The Company's property manager customers include third-party managers and owner-operators, managing single- and multi-family residences, commercial property and student housing, as well as mixed real estate portfolios.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AppFolio (APPF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -182.1
Price to Sales 13.7
Price to Book 20.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 121.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -485.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 41.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 36.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 30.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.1%
Return On Total Capital -11.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.6%
Return On Equity -11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.6%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.8%
EBITDA Margin 1.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.7%
Operating Margin -7.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.9%
Net Profit Margin -7.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

APPF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the APPF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $106 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AppFolio. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of AppFolio. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our APPF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 35.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for APPF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AppFolio, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AppFolio.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of APPF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $33 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for APPF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for AppFolio.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AppFolio. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the APPF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for APPF are equal to 22.2%.

Life of production assets of 3.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AppFolio operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for APPF is equal to -14.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $70 million for AppFolio - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.735 million for AppFolio is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AppFolio at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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Financial statements of APPF
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