Intrinsic value of AppFolio - APPF

Previous Close

$66.35

  Intrinsic Value

$104.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+58%

Previous close

$66.35

 
Intrinsic value

$104.84

 
Up/down potential

+58%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of APPF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  36.20
  33.08
  30.27
  27.74
  25.47
  23.42
  21.58
  19.92
  18.43
  17.09
  15.88
  14.79
  13.81
  12.93
  12.14
  11.42
  10.78
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
Revenue, $m
  196
  261
  340
  434
  545
  673
  818
  981
  1,161
  1,360
  1,576
  1,809
  2,059
  2,325
  2,607
  2,905
  3,218
  3,547
  3,890
  4,249
  4,622
  5,011
  5,416
  5,836
  6,273
  6,727
  7,199
  7,690
  8,200
  8,731
Variable operating expenses, $m
  104
  138
  178
  227
  284
  350
  425
  510
  603
  706
  815
  935
  1,064
  1,202
  1,348
  1,502
  1,664
  1,833
  2,011
  2,196
  2,389
  2,590
  2,800
  3,017
  3,243
  3,478
  3,722
  3,975
  4,239
  4,513
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  59
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  98
  100
  102
  104
  107
  109
  111
Total operating expenses, $m
  163
  199
  240
  290
  349
  416
  493
  579
  674
  778
  889
  1,010
  1,141
  1,281
  1,428
  1,584
  1,748
  1,919
  2,099
  2,286
  2,481
  2,684
  2,896
  3,115
  3,343
  3,580
  3,826
  4,082
  4,348
  4,624
Operating income, $m
  33
  63
  100
  144
  196
  256
  325
  402
  488
  582
  688
  799
  918
  1,044
  1,179
  1,321
  1,471
  1,627
  1,791
  1,963
  2,141
  2,327
  2,520
  2,721
  2,930
  3,148
  3,373
  3,608
  3,852
  4,106
EBITDA, $m
  40
  71
  110
  156
  211
  274
  346
  427
  517
  616
  723
  840
  964
  1,097
  1,238
  1,387
  1,544
  1,708
  1,880
  2,059
  2,246
  2,441
  2,643
  2,854
  3,073
  3,300
  3,537
  3,783
  4,038
  4,304
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  11
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
Earnings before tax, $m
  33
  62
  99
  142
  193
  252
  320
  396
  480
  573
  676
  785
  902
  1,026
  1,158
  1,298
  1,445
  1,598
  1,759
  1,927
  2,102
  2,285
  2,474
  2,672
  2,877
  3,090
  3,311
  3,541
  3,781
  4,030
Tax expense, $m
  9
  17
  27
  38
  52
  68
  86
  107
  130
  155
  183
  212
  243
  277
  313
  350
  390
  432
  475
  520
  568
  617
  668
  721
  777
  834
  894
  956
  1,021
  1,088
Net income, $m
  24
  46
  72
  104
  141
  184
  234
  289
  350
  418
  494
  573
  658
  749
  846
  947
  1,055
  1,167
  1,284
  1,407
  1,535
  1,668
  1,806
  1,950
  2,100
  2,255
  2,417
  2,585
  2,760
  2,942

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  120
  160
  209
  267
  335
  413
  502
  602
  713
  835
  967
  1,110
  1,264
  1,427
  1,601
  1,783
  1,976
  2,177
  2,388
  2,608
  2,837
  3,076
  3,325
  3,583
  3,851
  4,130
  4,420
  4,721
  5,034
  5,359
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  120
  160
  209
  267
  335
  413
  502
  602
  713
  835
  967
  1,110
  1,264
  1,427
  1,601
  1,783
  1,976
  2,177
  2,388
  2,608
  2,837
  3,076
  3,325
  3,583
  3,851
  4,130
  4,420
  4,721
  5,034
  5,359
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.633
  1.631
  1.627
  1.625
  1.627
  1.630
  1.629
  1.630
  1.628
  1.629
  1.630
  1.630
  1.629
  1.629
  1.628
  1.629
  1.629
  1.629
  1.629
  1.629
  1.629
  1.629
  1.629
  1.629
  1.629
  1.629
  1.629
  1.629
  1.629
  1.629
Average production assets, $m
  45
  59
  77
  99
  124
  153
  186
  223
  264
  309
  358
  411
  467
  528
  592
  659
  731
  805
  883
  964
  1,049
  1,138
  1,229
  1,325
  1,424
  1,527
  1,634
  1,746
  1,861
  1,982
Working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
Total debt, $m
  9
  20
  34
  51
  70
  92
  118
  146
  178
  213
  250
  291
  335
  382
  431
  483
  538
  595
  655
  718
  783
  851
  922
  996
  1,072
  1,152
  1,234
  1,320
  1,409
  1,502
Total liabilities, $m
  34
  46
  59
  76
  95
  118
  143
  172
  203
  238
  276
  316
  360
  407
  456
  508
  563
  621
  681
  743
  809
  877
  947
  1,021
  1,098
  1,177
  1,260
  1,345
  1,435
  1,527
Total equity, $m
  86
  115
  149
  191
  239
  295
  359
  430
  510
  597
  692
  794
  904
  1,021
  1,144
  1,275
  1,413
  1,557
  1,707
  1,865
  2,029
  2,199
  2,377
  2,562
  2,753
  2,953
  3,160
  3,375
  3,599
  3,832
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  120
  161
  208
  267
  334
  413
  502
  602
  713
  835
  968
  1,110
  1,264
  1,428
  1,600
  1,783
  1,976
  2,178
  2,388
  2,608
  2,838
  3,076
  3,324
  3,583
  3,851
  4,130
  4,420
  4,720
  5,034
  5,359
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.110
  0.180
  0.230
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715
  0.715

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  24
  46
  72
  104
  141
  184
  234
  289
  350
  418
  494
  573
  658
  749
  846
  947
  1,055
  1,167
  1,284
  1,407
  1,535
  1,668
  1,806
  1,950
  2,100
  2,255
  2,417
  2,585
  2,760
  2,942
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  9
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  33
  36
  41
  47
  53
  59
  66
  73
  81
  88
  96
  105
  114
  123
  132
  142
  153
  163
  175
  186
  198
Funds from operations, $m
  31
  54
  82
  116
  156
  202
  255
  314
  379
  451
  529
  614
  705
  802
  905
  1,013
  1,128
  1,247
  1,373
  1,503
  1,640
  1,782
  1,929
  2,083
  2,242
  2,408
  2,581
  2,760
  2,946
  3,140
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  31
  54
  83
  117
  156
  203
  255
  314
  380
  452
  530
  615
  706
  803
  906
  1,015
  1,129
  1,249
  1,374
  1,505
  1,641
  1,783
  1,931
  2,084
  2,244
  2,410
  2,582
  2,762
  2,948
  3,142
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -31
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -66
  -73
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -105
  -114
  -123
  -132
  -142
  -153
  -163
  -175
  -186
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -15
  -19
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -41
  -48
  -56
  -63
  -71
  -80
  -89
  -98
  -107
  -117
  -127
  -137
  -148
  -159
  -169
  -181
  -193
  -206
  -218
  -231
  -245
  -260
  -274
  -291
  -306
Free cash flow, $m
  16
  35
  59
  87
  122
  161
  207
  259
  317
  381
  450
  526
  608
  696
  789
  888
  992
  1,101
  1,216
  1,335
  1,460
  1,590
  1,725
  1,866
  2,012
  2,164
  2,323
  2,487
  2,658
  2,836
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  9
  11
  14
  17
  19
  22
  25
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  76
  79
  83
  86
  89
  93
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  9
  11
  14
  17
  19
  22
  25
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  76
  79
  83
  86
  89
  93
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  25
  47
  73
  104
  141
  184
  232
  287
  348
  416
  488
  567
  652
  743
  839
  940
  1,047
  1,159
  1,276
  1,398
  1,525
  1,658
  1,796
  1,940
  2,089
  2,244
  2,405
  2,573
  2,747
  2,928
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -23
  -28
  -35
  -41
  -49
  -56
  -64
  -72
  -79
  -87
  -95
  -102
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -199
  -207
  -215
  -224
  -233
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  6
  8
  11
  14
  18
  23
  28
  34
  41
  49
  57
  66
  76
  86
  98
  110
  122
  135
  149
  163
  178
  194
  210
  227
  245
  263
  283
  302
  323
  344
Cash available for distribution, $m
  24
  18
  38
  63
  92
  128
  169
  216
  269
  328
  393
  465
  542
  626
  715
  809
  909
  1,014
  1,125
  1,241
  1,361
  1,487
  1,619
  1,755
  1,897
  2,045
  2,198
  2,357
  2,523
  2,695
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  23
  17
  33
  51
  72
  93
  114
  135
  155
  172
  187
  198
  206
  210
  210
  206
  198
  187
  173
  158
  141
  123
  106
  89
  74
  60
  47
  36
  28
  20
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

AppFolio, Inc. is a provider of industry-specific, cloud-based software solutions for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in the property management and legal industries. The Company's mobile-optimized software solutions enable its customers to work at any time and from anywhere across multiple devices. Its property management software provides small and medium-sized property managers with an end-to-end solution to their business needs. The Company's legal software provides solo practitioners and small law firms with a streamlined practice and case management solution, allowing them to manage their practices and case load. It also offers Value+ services, such as its professionally designed Websites and electronic payment services. The Company's property manager customers include third-party managers and owner-operators, managing single- and multi-family residences, commercial property and student housing, as well as mixed real estate portfolios.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AppFolio (APPF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -279.7
Price to Sales 21.1
Price to Book 32
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 186.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -745.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 41.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 36.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 30.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.1%
Return On Total Capital -11.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.6%
Return On Equity -11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.6%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.8%
EBITDA Margin 1.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.7%
Operating Margin -7.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.9%
Net Profit Margin -7.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

APPF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the APPF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $144 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AppFolio. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of AppFolio. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our APPF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 36.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for APPF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AppFolio, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AppFolio.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of APPF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 53.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $58 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for APPF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for AppFolio.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AppFolio. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the APPF stock is equal to 4.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for APPF are equal to 22.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AppFolio operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for APPF is equal to -0.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $85 million for AppFolio - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34 million for AppFolio is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AppFolio at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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