Intrinsic value of Aptiv PLC - APTV

Previous Close

$81.00

  Intrinsic Value

$67.88

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-16%

Previous close

$81.00

 
Intrinsic value

$67.88

 
Up/down potential

-16%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of APTV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 20.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.09
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
Revenue, $m
  15,258
  16,117
  17,014
  17,952
  18,932
  19,956
  21,028
  22,150
  23,325
  24,554
  25,842
  27,191
  28,604
  30,085
  31,637
  33,265
  34,971
  36,761
  38,637
  40,606
  42,670
  44,837
  47,109
  49,494
  51,996
  54,622
  57,378
  60,270
  63,306
  66,492
Variable operating expenses, $m
  13,557
  14,298
  15,073
  15,882
  16,727
  17,612
  18,537
  19,505
  20,518
  21,579
  22,300
  23,464
  24,684
  25,962
  27,302
  28,706
  30,179
  31,723
  33,342
  35,041
  36,823
  38,692
  40,653
  42,711
  44,871
  47,137
  49,515
  52,011
  54,630
  57,380
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  13,557
  14,298
  15,073
  15,882
  16,727
  17,612
  18,537
  19,505
  20,518
  21,579
  22,300
  23,464
  24,684
  25,962
  27,302
  28,706
  30,179
  31,723
  33,342
  35,041
  36,823
  38,692
  40,653
  42,711
  44,871
  47,137
  49,515
  52,011
  54,630
  57,380
Operating income, $m
  1,701
  1,818
  1,941
  2,070
  2,204
  2,345
  2,491
  2,645
  2,806
  2,975
  3,541
  3,726
  3,920
  4,123
  4,336
  4,559
  4,793
  5,038
  5,295
  5,565
  5,848
  6,145
  6,456
  6,783
  7,126
  7,486
  7,863
  8,260
  8,676
  9,112
EBITDA, $m
  2,610
  2,757
  2,911
  3,071
  3,239
  3,414
  3,597
  3,789
  3,990
  4,200
  4,421
  4,651
  4,893
  5,147
  5,412
  5,690
  5,982
  6,288
  6,610
  6,946
  7,299
  7,670
  8,059
  8,467
  8,895
  9,344
  9,815
  10,310
  10,830
  11,375
Interest expense (income), $m
  145
  235
  262
  291
  322
  353
  386
  421
  457
  495
  535
  576
  619
  665
  713
  763
  815
  870
  928
  988
  1,051
  1,118
  1,187
  1,260
  1,337
  1,418
  1,502
  1,591
  1,684
  1,781
  1,884
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,466
  1,556
  1,650
  1,748
  1,851
  1,958
  2,071
  2,188
  2,311
  2,440
  2,965
  3,107
  3,255
  3,410
  3,573
  3,744
  3,923
  4,110
  4,307
  4,514
  4,730
  4,957
  5,196
  5,446
  5,708
  5,984
  6,273
  6,576
  6,895
  7,229
Tax expense, $m
  396
  420
  446
  472
  500
  529
  559
  591
  624
  659
  801
  839
  879
  921
  965
  1,011
  1,059
  1,110
  1,163
  1,219
  1,277
  1,338
  1,403
  1,470
  1,541
  1,616
  1,694
  1,776
  1,862
  1,952
Net income, $m
  1,070
  1,136
  1,205
  1,276
  1,351
  1,430
  1,512
  1,597
  1,687
  1,781
  2,165
  2,268
  2,376
  2,490
  2,608
  2,733
  2,864
  3,001
  3,144
  3,295
  3,453
  3,619
  3,793
  3,975
  4,167
  4,368
  4,579
  4,801
  5,033
  5,277

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  13,187
  13,930
  14,705
  15,516
  16,363
  17,248
  18,175
  19,145
  20,160
  21,222
  22,335
  23,501
  24,722
  26,002
  27,344
  28,751
  30,226
  31,772
  33,394
  35,096
  36,880
  38,752
  40,717
  42,778
  44,941
  47,210
  49,592
  52,092
  54,716
  57,470
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  13,187
  13,930
  14,705
  15,516
  16,363
  17,248
  18,175
  19,145
  20,160
  21,222
  22,335
  23,501
  24,722
  26,002
  27,344
  28,751
  30,226
  31,772
  33,394
  35,096
  36,880
  38,752
  40,717
  42,778
  44,941
  47,210
  49,592
  52,092
  54,716
  57,470
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
Average production assets, $m
  5,035
  5,319
  5,615
  5,924
  6,247
  6,586
  6,939
  7,310
  7,697
  8,103
  8,528
  8,973
  9,439
  9,928
  10,440
  10,977
  11,540
  12,131
  12,750
  13,400
  14,081
  14,796
  15,546
  16,333
  17,159
  18,025
  18,935
  19,889
  20,891
  21,942
Working capital, $m
  870
  919
  970
  1,023
  1,079
  1,138
  1,199
  1,263
  1,329
  1,400
  1,473
  1,550
  1,630
  1,715
  1,803
  1,896
  1,993
  2,095
  2,202
  2,315
  2,432
  2,556
  2,685
  2,821
  2,964
  3,113
  3,271
  3,435
  3,608
  3,790
Total debt, $m
  4,857
  5,394
  5,955
  6,541
  7,153
  7,794
  8,464
  9,165
  9,898
  10,667
  11,471
  12,314
  13,197
  14,123
  15,093
  16,110
  17,176
  18,294
  19,467
  20,697
  21,987
  23,341
  24,761
  26,251
  27,815
  29,456
  31,178
  32,986
  34,882
  36,873
Total liabilities, $m
  9,534
  10,071
  10,632
  11,218
  11,830
  12,471
  13,141
  13,842
  14,575
  15,344
  16,148
  16,991
  17,874
  18,800
  19,770
  20,787
  21,853
  22,971
  24,144
  25,374
  26,664
  28,018
  29,438
  30,928
  32,492
  34,133
  35,855
  37,663
  39,559
  41,550
Total equity, $m
  3,653
  3,859
  4,073
  4,298
  4,532
  4,778
  5,034
  5,303
  5,584
  5,879
  6,187
  6,510
  6,848
  7,203
  7,574
  7,964
  8,373
  8,801
  9,250
  9,721
  10,216
  10,734
  11,279
  11,849
  12,449
  13,077
  13,737
  14,429
  15,156
  15,919
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  13,187
  13,930
  14,705
  15,516
  16,362
  17,249
  18,175
  19,145
  20,159
  21,223
  22,335
  23,501
  24,722
  26,003
  27,344
  28,751
  30,226
  31,772
  33,394
  35,095
  36,880
  38,752
  40,717
  42,777
  44,941
  47,210
  49,592
  52,092
  54,715
  57,469
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.330
  1.400
  1.460
  1.520
  1.580
  1.630
  1.680
  1.730
  1.770
  1.810
  1.850
  1.890
  1.930
  1.960
  1.990
  2.020
  2.050
  2.080
  2.100
  2.130
  2.150
  2.170
  2.200
  2.220
  2.230
  2.250
  2.270
  2.290
  2.300
  2.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,070
  1,136
  1,205
  1,276
  1,351
  1,430
  1,512
  1,597
  1,687
  1,781
  2,165
  2,268
  2,376
  2,490
  2,608
  2,733
  2,864
  3,001
  3,144
  3,295
  3,453
  3,619
  3,793
  3,975
  4,167
  4,368
  4,579
  4,801
  5,033
  5,277
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  909
  939
  969
  1,001
  1,034
  1,069
  1,106
  1,144
  1,184
  1,226
  879
  925
  973
  1,024
  1,076
  1,132
  1,190
  1,251
  1,314
  1,381
  1,452
  1,525
  1,603
  1,684
  1,769
  1,858
  1,952
  2,050
  2,154
  2,262
Funds from operations, $m
  1,980
  2,075
  2,174
  2,277
  2,386
  2,499
  2,617
  2,741
  2,871
  3,007
  3,044
  3,193
  3,349
  3,513
  3,685
  3,865
  4,053
  4,251
  4,459
  4,676
  4,905
  5,144
  5,396
  5,659
  5,936
  6,226
  6,531
  6,851
  7,187
  7,539
Change in working capital, $m
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  182
Cash from operations, $m
  1,933
  2,026
  2,123
  2,224
  2,330
  2,440
  2,556
  2,677
  2,804
  2,937
  2,971
  3,116
  3,269
  3,429
  3,596
  3,772
  3,956
  4,149
  4,352
  4,564
  4,787
  5,021
  5,266
  5,523
  5,793
  6,077
  6,374
  6,686
  7,014
  7,358
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -491
  -519
  -548
  -579
  -611
  -644
  -679
  -715
  -754
  -794
  -835
  -879
  -925
  -973
  -1,024
  -1,076
  -1,132
  -1,190
  -1,251
  -1,314
  -1,381
  -1,452
  -1,525
  -1,603
  -1,684
  -1,769
  -1,858
  -1,952
  -2,050
  -2,154
New CAPEX, $m
  -277
  -283
  -296
  -309
  -323
  -338
  -354
  -370
  -388
  -406
  -425
  -445
  -466
  -489
  -512
  -537
  -563
  -590
  -619
  -650
  -681
  -715
  -750
  -787
  -826
  -867
  -909
  -954
  -1,002
  -1,051
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -768
  -802
  -844
  -888
  -934
  -982
  -1,033
  -1,085
  -1,142
  -1,200
  -1,260
  -1,324
  -1,391
  -1,462
  -1,536
  -1,613
  -1,695
  -1,780
  -1,870
  -1,964
  -2,062
  -2,167
  -2,275
  -2,390
  -2,510
  -2,636
  -2,767
  -2,906
  -3,052
  -3,205
Free cash flow, $m
  1,165
  1,223
  1,278
  1,336
  1,396
  1,458
  1,524
  1,592
  1,663
  1,738
  1,710
  1,792
  1,877
  1,967
  2,060
  2,158
  2,261
  2,369
  2,482
  2,600
  2,724
  2,854
  2,991
  3,134
  3,284
  3,441
  3,606
  3,780
  3,962
  4,152
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  513
  537
  561
  586
  612
  640
  670
  701
  734
  768
  805
  843
  883
  926
  970
  1,017
  1,066
  1,118
  1,173
  1,230
  1,290
  1,354
  1,420
  1,490
  1,564
  1,641
  1,722
  1,807
  1,897
  1,991
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  513
  537
  561
  586
  612
  640
  670
  701
  734
  768
  805
  843
  883
  926
  970
  1,017
  1,066
  1,118
  1,173
  1,230
  1,290
  1,354
  1,420
  1,490
  1,564
  1,641
  1,722
  1,807
  1,897
  1,991
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,679
  1,760
  1,839
  1,922
  2,008
  2,099
  2,193
  2,293
  2,397
  2,506
  2,515
  2,635
  2,760
  2,892
  3,030
  3,175
  3,328
  3,487
  3,655
  3,830
  4,014
  4,208
  4,411
  4,624
  4,847
  5,082
  5,328
  5,587
  5,858
  6,143
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -194
  -206
  -215
  -224
  -235
  -245
  -257
  -269
  -281
  -294
  -308
  -323
  -338
  -355
  -372
  -390
  -409
  -428
  -449
  -471
  -494
  -519
  -544
  -571
  -599
  -629
  -660
  -692
  -727
  -763
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,485
  1,554
  1,624
  1,697
  1,773
  1,853
  1,937
  2,024
  2,116
  2,212
  2,207
  2,312
  2,422
  2,538
  2,659
  2,786
  2,919
  3,059
  3,205
  3,359
  3,520
  3,689
  3,867
  4,053
  4,248
  4,453
  4,669
  4,895
  5,132
  5,381
Discount rate, %
  5.90
  6.20
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.91
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.60
  11.13
  11.68
  12.27
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,402
  1,378
  1,344
  1,303
  1,254
  1,199
  1,137
  1,069
  997
  921
  804
  729
  654
  580
  507
  438
  372
  312
  257
  209
  166
  130
  99
  74
  55
  39
  27
  19
  12
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Aptiv PLC, formerly Delphi Automotive PLC, is a global technology company serving the automotive sector. The Company designs and manufactures vehicle components, and provides electrical and electronic and active safety technology solutions to the global automotive and commercial vehicle markets. The Company's segments include Electrical/Electronic Architecture, and Electronics & Safety. The Electrical/Electronic Architecture segment provides complete design of the vehicle's electrical architecture, including connectors, wiring assemblies and harnesses, electrical centers and hybrid high voltage and safety distribution systems. The Electronics and Safety segment offers a range of electronic and safety equipment and software in the areas of controls, security, infotainment, communications and safety systems.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Aptiv PLC (APTV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.4
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 9.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 17.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 70
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 164.9%
Total Debt to Equity 165.4%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Return On Total Capital 19.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Return On Equity 54.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.9%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.2%
EBITDA Margin 13.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.2%
Operating Margin 11.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Net Profit Margin 7.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Effective Tax Rate 17%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Payout Ratio 25.2%

APTV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the APTV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $14435 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Aptiv PLC. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Aptiv PLC. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our APTV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.9%, whose default value for APTV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Aptiv PLC, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Aptiv PLC.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of APTV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for APTV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Aptiv PLC.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Aptiv PLC. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the APTV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for APTV are equal to 33%.

Life of production assets of 9.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Aptiv PLC operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for APTV is equal to 5.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3459 million for Aptiv PLC - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 257.931 million for Aptiv PLC is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Aptiv PLC at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $20.9 billion.

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