Intrinsic value of Accuray - ARAY

Previous Close

$4.30

  Intrinsic Value

$14.41

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+235%

Previous close

$4.30

 
Intrinsic value

$14.41

 
Up/down potential

+235%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARAY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.01
  17.90
  16.61
  15.45
  14.40
  13.46
  12.62
  11.86
  11.17
  10.55
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
Revenue, $m
  383
  452
  527
  608
  695
  789
  889
  994
  1,105
  1,222
  1,344
  1,471
  1,605
  1,743
  1,888
  2,038
  2,194
  2,356
  2,524
  2,699
  2,881
  3,071
  3,268
  3,472
  3,686
  3,908
  4,140
  4,381
  4,633
  4,896
  5,170
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  309
  360
  414
  473
  536
  603
  674
  748
  827
  909
  989
  1,078
  1,171
  1,268
  1,369
  1,474
  1,583
  1,696
  1,814
  1,936
  2,063
  2,195
  2,333
  2,476
  2,626
  2,781
  2,943
  3,113
  3,289
  3,474
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  136
  140
  143
  147
  150
  154
  158
  162
  166
  170
  175
  179
  183
  188
  193
  197
  202
  207
  213
  218
  223
  229
  235
  241
  247
  253
  259
  266
  272
  279
Total operating expenses, $m
  393
  445
  500
  557
  620
  686
  757
  832
  910
  993
  1,079
  1,164
  1,257
  1,354
  1,456
  1,562
  1,671
  1,785
  1,903
  2,027
  2,154
  2,286
  2,424
  2,568
  2,717
  2,873
  3,034
  3,202
  3,379
  3,561
  3,753
Operating income, $m
  -10
  6
  27
  50
  76
  103
  132
  162
  195
  229
  265
  308
  348
  389
  431
  476
  522
  571
  621
  673
  728
  784
  843
  905
  969
  1,036
  1,106
  1,179
  1,255
  1,334
  1,418
EBITDA, $m
  8
  19
  41
  66
  92
  121
  151
  184
  218
  254
  292
  331
  373
  416
  461
  508
  557
  607
  660
  715
  773
  832
  894
  959
  1,026
  1,097
  1,170
  1,247
  1,327
  1,411
  1,498
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  4
  6
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  30
  34
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  70
  75
  82
  88
  95
  101
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  168
Earnings before tax, $m
  -29
  2
  21
  42
  64
  88
  113
  140
  169
  199
  231
  270
  304
  341
  378
  418
  459
  501
  545
  592
  640
  690
  742
  796
  853
  912
  974
  1,038
  1,106
  1,176
  1,250
Tax expense, $m
  1
  1
  6
  11
  17
  24
  31
  38
  46
  54
  62
  73
  82
  92
  102
  113
  124
  135
  147
  160
  173
  186
  200
  215
  230
  246
  263
  280
  299
  318
  337
Net income, $m
  -30
  2
  15
  30
  47
  64
  83
  102
  123
  145
  168
  197
  222
  249
  276
  305
  335
  366
  398
  432
  467
  503
  542
  581
  623
  666
  711
  758
  807
  859
  912

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  96
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  406
  366
  426
  492
  563
  639
  720
  805
  895
  989
  1,088
  1,191
  1,299
  1,412
  1,528
  1,650
  1,776
  1,908
  2,044
  2,186
  2,333
  2,486
  2,646
  2,812
  2,984
  3,164
  3,352
  3,547
  3,751
  3,964
  4,187
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  310
  366
  426
  492
  563
  639
  720
  805
  895
  989
  1,088
  1,191
  1,299
  1,412
  1,528
  1,650
  1,776
  1,908
  2,044
  2,186
  2,333
  2,486
  2,646
  2,812
  2,984
  3,164
  3,352
  3,547
  3,751
  3,964
  4,187
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.235
  1.235
  1.237
  1.236
  1.234
  1.235
  1.235
  1.235
  1.235
  1.236
  1.235
  1.235
  1.236
  1.234
  1.236
  1.235
  1.235
  1.235
  1.235
  1.235
  1.235
  1.235
  1.235
  1.235
  1.235
  1.235
  1.235
  1.235
  1.235
  1.235
  1.235
Average production assets, $m
  30
  35
  41
  47
  54
  62
  69
  78
  86
  95
  105
  115
  125
  136
  147
  159
  171
  184
  197
  211
  225
  240
  255
  271
  287
  305
  323
  342
  361
  382
  403
Working capital, $m
  25
  50
  58
  67
  77
  87
  98
  109
  122
  134
  148
  162
  177
  192
  208
  224
  241
  259
  278
  297
  317
  338
  359
  382
  405
  430
  455
  482
  510
  539
  569
Total debt, $m
  165
  116
  168
  223
  284
  348
  416
  489
  565
  645
  729
  816
  908
  1,003
  1,102
  1,205
  1,312
  1,424
  1,539
  1,660
  1,784
  1,914
  2,050
  2,190
  2,337
  2,489
  2,648
  2,814
  2,987
  3,168
  3,356
Total liabilities, $m
  360
  310
  362
  417
  478
  542
  610
  683
  759
  839
  923
  1,010
  1,102
  1,197
  1,296
  1,399
  1,506
  1,618
  1,733
  1,854
  1,978
  2,108
  2,244
  2,384
  2,531
  2,683
  2,842
  3,008
  3,181
  3,362
  3,550
Total equity, $m
  47
  56
  65
  75
  86
  97
  109
  122
  136
  150
  165
  181
  197
  215
  232
  251
  270
  290
  311
  332
  355
  378
  402
  427
  454
  481
  509
  539
  570
  603
  636
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  407
  366
  427
  492
  564
  639
  719
  805
  895
  989
  1,088
  1,191
  1,299
  1,412
  1,528
  1,650
  1,776
  1,908
  2,044
  2,186
  2,333
  2,486
  2,646
  2,811
  2,985
  3,164
  3,351
  3,547
  3,751
  3,965
  4,186
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.511
  2.090
  2.590
  2.990
  3.310
  3.580
  3.810
  3.990
  4.150
  4.290
  4.410
  4.510
  4.600
  4.670
  4.740
  4.810
  4.860
  4.910
  4.950
  5.000
  5.030
  5.070
  5.100
  5.130
  5.150
  5.180
  5.200
  5.220
  5.240
  5.260
  5.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.158
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -30
  2
  15
  30
  47
  64
  83
  102
  123
  145
  168
  197
  222
  249
  276
  305
  335
  366
  398
  432
  467
  503
  542
  581
  623
  666
  711
  758
  807
  859
  912
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  81
Funds from operations, $m
  -12
  15
  29
  46
  63
  82
  102
  124
  146
  170
  195
  220
  247
  276
  306
  337
  369
  403
  438
  474
  512
  551
  592
  635
  680
  727
  775
  826
  879
  935
  993
Change in working capital, $m
  -12
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  7
  21
  37
  54
  72
  91
  112
  134
  157
  182
  206
  233
  261
  290
  320
  352
  385
  419
  455
  492
  531
  571
  613
  657
  702
  750
  800
  852
  906
  963
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
Cash from investing activities, $m
  18
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
Free cash flow, $m
  18
  -4
  8
  22
  37
  54
  71
  90
  110
  131
  153
  175
  199
  225
  251
  279
  308
  338
  369
  402
  436
  471
  508
  546
  586
  627
  671
  716
  764
  813
  865
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -57
  47
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
  153
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -55
  54
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
  153
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -37
  50
  60
  78
  97
  118
  140
  162
  186
  211
  237
  263
  291
  320
  350
  382
  415
  449
  485
  522
  561
  601
  643
  687
  732
  780
  830
  882
  937
  994
  1,054
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  13
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  41
  51
  68
  87
  106
  127
  149
  173
  197
  222
  247
  274
  303
  333
  364
  396
  429
  464
  500
  538
  577
  619
  661
  706
  753
  801
  852
  906
  961
  1,020
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  38
  44
  55
  64
  71
  77
  80
  82
  82
  80
  76
  72
  66
  60
  53
  46
  40
  33
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1

Accuray Incorporated is a radiation oncology company. The Company develops, manufactures and markets medical devices used in radiation therapy for the treatment of cancer patients. Its products include the CyberKnife Systems, the TomoTherapy Systems, and the Radixact Delivery Treatment Platform. Its technologies, the CyberKnife and TomoTherapy Systems, are designed to deliver treatments, including stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS), stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), image guided radiation therapy (IGRT) and adaptive radiation therapy. The CyberKnife Systems are robotic systems that are used to treat various types of cancer and tumors throughout the body. The CyberKnife Systems track, detect and correct for tumor and patient movement in real-time during the procedure. The TomoTherapy Systems include the TomoTherapy H Series with configuration options of TomoH, TomoHD and TomoHDA.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Accuray (ARAY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -12
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 7.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow -72
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -37.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -16.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 110.6%
Total Debt to Equity 351.1%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -4.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.8%
Return On Total Capital -12.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -12%
Return On Equity -56.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -46.7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.3%
EBITDA Margin -0.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Operating Margin -2.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.8%
Net Profit Margin -7.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.3%
Effective Tax Rate -3.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

ARAY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARAY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $383 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Accuray. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Accuray. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARAY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for ARAY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Accuray, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Accuray.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARAY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 68.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $133 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARAY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for Accuray.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Accuray. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARAY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARAY are equal to 7.8%.

Life of production assets of 4.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Accuray operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARAY is equal to 11%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $47 million for Accuray - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 83.756 million for Accuray is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Accuray at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Accuray, Inc. : October 5, 2017   [Oct-05-17 10:48AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Accuray, Inc. : September 12, 2017   [Sep-11-17 08:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Accuray, Inc. : September 1, 2017   [Sep-01-17 06:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Accuray reports 4Q loss   [Aug-22-17 09:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Varians Oncology Business Grows in Emerging Markets   [Aug-15-17 09:05AM  Market Realist]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 24th   [Jul-24-17 09:49AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Accuray, Inc. : July 12, 2017   [Jul-12-17 02:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 10th   [Jul-10-17 10:21AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Accuray, Inc. : June 29, 2017   [Jun-29-17 02:50PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Accuray, Inc. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 03:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Accuray Enters into New Revolving Loan Agreement   [Jun-15-17 07:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Accuray reports 3Q loss   [Apr-27-17 05:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Accuray, Inc. : April 19, 2017   [Apr-19-17 02:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Is Accuray (ARAY) a Great Growth Stock?   [Apr-13-17 09:07AM  Zacks]
▶ Accuray Launches New Cancer Patient Websites   [Mar-02-17 07:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ The Accuray Radixact System Receives Shonin Approval   [Feb-08-17 07:30AM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of ARAY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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