Intrinsic value of Ardagh Group Cl A - ARD

Previous Close

$16.54

  Intrinsic Value

$46.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+181%

Previous close

$16.54

 
Intrinsic value

$46.43

 
Up/down potential

+181%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  37.40
  34.16
  31.24
  28.62
  26.26
  24.13
  22.22
  20.50
  18.95
  17.55
  16.30
  15.17
  14.15
  13.24
  12.41
  11.67
  11.00
  10.40
  9.86
  9.38
  8.94
  8.55
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.33
  7.09
  6.88
  6.70
  6.53
Revenue, $m
  12,608
  16,915
  22,199
  28,553
  36,050
  44,750
  54,693
  65,903
  78,390
  92,149
  107,166
  123,421
  140,886
  159,533
  179,334
  200,264
  222,301
  245,428
  269,634
  294,917
  321,280
  348,734
  377,298
  406,997
  437,866
  469,944
  503,279
  537,924
  573,942
  611,398
Variable operating expenses, $m
  11,420
  15,181
  19,796
  25,344
  31,891
  39,488
  48,170
  57,959
  68,863
  80,878
  93,581
  107,775
  123,026
  139,309
  156,600
  174,877
  194,120
  214,315
  235,453
  257,531
  280,552
  304,526
  329,468
  355,403
  382,358
  410,369
  439,478
  469,732
  501,184
  533,892
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  11,420
  15,181
  19,796
  25,344
  31,891
  39,488
  48,170
  57,959
  68,863
  80,878
  93,581
  107,775
  123,026
  139,309
  156,600
  174,877
  194,120
  214,315
  235,453
  257,531
  280,552
  304,526
  329,468
  355,403
  382,358
  410,369
  439,478
  469,732
  501,184
  533,892
Operating income, $m
  1,187
  1,733
  2,403
  3,209
  4,159
  5,262
  6,523
  7,944
  9,527
  11,271
  13,585
  15,646
  17,860
  20,224
  22,734
  25,387
  28,181
  31,113
  34,181
  37,386
  40,728
  44,209
  47,830
  51,595
  55,508
  59,574
  63,800
  68,192
  72,758
  77,506
EBITDA, $m
  2,604
  3,494
  4,586
  5,898
  7,447
  9,244
  11,298
  13,613
  16,193
  19,035
  22,137
  25,495
  29,103
  32,955
  37,045
  41,368
  45,920
  50,698
  55,698
  60,921
  66,367
  72,038
  77,938
  84,073
  90,449
  97,076
  103,962
  111,118
  118,559
  126,296
Interest expense (income), $m
  587
  657
  757
  1,129
  1,587
  2,136
  2,785
  3,537
  4,397
  5,367
  6,447
  7,637
  8,936
  10,342
  11,852
  13,465
  15,178
  16,988
  18,895
  20,895
  22,989
  25,176
  27,456
  29,831
  32,301
  34,870
  37,540
  40,315
  43,198
  46,195
  49,310
Earnings before tax, $m
  530
  977
  1,274
  1,622
  2,023
  2,478
  2,985
  3,547
  4,160
  4,824
  5,948
  6,710
  7,518
  8,371
  9,269
  10,209
  11,192
  12,218
  13,286
  14,398
  15,553
  16,753
  17,999
  19,293
  20,638
  22,034
  23,485
  24,994
  26,563
  28,196
Tax expense, $m
  143
  264
  344
  438
  546
  669
  806
  958
  1,123
  1,302
  1,606
  1,812
  2,030
  2,260
  2,503
  2,756
  3,022
  3,299
  3,587
  3,887
  4,199
  4,523
  4,860
  5,209
  5,572
  5,949
  6,341
  6,748
  7,172
  7,613
Net income, $m
  387
  713
  930
  1,184
  1,477
  1,809
  2,179
  2,589
  3,037
  3,522
  4,342
  4,898
  5,488
  6,111
  6,766
  7,453
  8,170
  8,919
  9,699
  10,510
  11,353
  12,229
  13,139
  14,084
  15,065
  16,085
  17,144
  18,246
  19,391
  20,583

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  15,338
  20,577
  27,007
  34,736
  43,857
  54,440
  66,536
  80,174
  95,364
  112,103
  130,373
  150,147
  171,394
  194,079
  218,168
  243,630
  270,439
  298,574
  328,022
  358,780
  390,852
  424,251
  459,000
  495,130
  532,683
  571,708
  612,261
  654,409
  698,226
  743,793
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  15,338
  20,577
  27,007
  34,736
  43,857
  54,440
  66,536
  80,174
  95,364
  112,103
  130,373
  150,147
  171,394
  194,079
  218,168
  243,630
  270,439
  298,574
  328,022
  358,780
  390,852
  424,251
  459,000
  495,130
  532,683
  571,708
  612,261
  654,409
  698,226
  743,793
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
  0.822
Average production assets, $m
  10,061
  13,498
  17,715
  22,785
  28,768
  35,710
  43,645
  52,590
  62,555
  73,535
  85,519
  98,490
  112,427
  127,307
  143,109
  159,811
  177,396
  195,851
  215,168
  235,344
  256,382
  278,290
  301,084
  324,784
  349,417
  375,015
  401,616
  429,264
  458,006
  487,896
Working capital, $m
  -870
  -1,167
  -1,532
  -1,970
  -2,487
  -3,088
  -3,774
  -4,547
  -5,409
  -6,358
  -7,394
  -8,516
  -9,721
  -11,008
  -12,374
  -13,818
  -15,339
  -16,935
  -18,605
  -20,349
  -22,168
  -24,063
  -26,034
  -28,083
  -30,213
  -32,426
  -34,726
  -37,117
  -39,602
  -42,186
Total debt, $m
  9,581
  14,297
  20,083
  27,039
  35,248
  44,773
  55,659
  67,933
  81,605
  96,670
  113,112
  130,909
  150,031
  170,448
  192,128
  215,044
  239,172
  264,493
  290,997
  318,679
  347,544
  377,603
  408,877
  441,394
  475,192
  510,314
  546,812
  584,745
  624,180
  665,191
Total liabilities, $m
  13,804
  18,520
  24,306
  31,262
  39,471
  48,996
  59,882
  72,156
  85,828
  100,893
  117,336
  135,132
  154,255
  174,671
  196,351
  219,267
  243,395
  268,716
  295,220
  322,902
  351,767
  381,826
  413,100
  445,617
  479,415
  514,537
  551,035
  588,968
  628,404
  669,414
Total equity, $m
  1,534
  2,058
  2,701
  3,474
  4,386
  5,444
  6,654
  8,017
  9,536
  11,210
  13,037
  15,015
  17,139
  19,408
  21,817
  24,363
  27,044
  29,857
  32,802
  35,878
  39,085
  42,425
  45,900
  49,513
  53,268
  57,171
  61,226
  65,441
  69,823
  74,379
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  15,338
  20,578
  27,007
  34,736
  43,857
  54,440
  66,536
  80,173
  95,364
  112,103
  130,373
  150,147
  171,394
  194,079
  218,168
  243,630
  270,439
  298,573
  328,022
  358,780
  390,852
  424,251
  459,000
  495,130
  532,683
  571,708
  612,261
  654,409
  698,227
  743,793
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.250
  6.950
  7.440
  7.780
  8.040
  8.220
  8.370
  8.470
  8.560
  8.620
  8.680
  8.720
  8.750
  8.780
  8.810
  8.830
  8.840
  8.860
  8.870
  8.880
  8.890
  8.900
  8.910
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  387
  713
  930
  1,184
  1,477
  1,809
  2,179
  2,589
  3,037
  3,522
  4,342
  4,898
  5,488
  6,111
  6,766
  7,453
  8,170
  8,919
  9,699
  10,510
  11,353
  12,229
  13,139
  14,084
  15,065
  16,085
  17,144
  18,246
  19,391
  20,583
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,417
  1,761
  2,182
  2,689
  3,288
  3,982
  4,775
  5,670
  6,666
  7,764
  8,552
  9,849
  11,243
  12,731
  14,311
  15,981
  17,740
  19,585
  21,517
  23,534
  25,638
  27,829
  30,108
  32,478
  34,942
  37,501
  40,162
  42,926
  45,801
  48,790
Funds from operations, $m
  1,804
  2,473
  3,112
  3,874
  4,765
  5,790
  6,955
  8,259
  9,703
  11,286
  12,894
  14,747
  16,731
  18,842
  21,077
  23,434
  25,910
  28,504
  31,216
  34,045
  36,992
  40,058
  43,248
  46,563
  50,007
  53,586
  57,306
  61,172
  65,192
  69,373
Change in working capital, $m
  -237
  -297
  -365
  -438
  -517
  -600
  -686
  -774
  -862
  -949
  -1,036
  -1,122
  -1,205
  -1,287
  -1,366
  -1,444
  -1,521
  -1,596
  -1,670
  -1,745
  -1,819
  -1,894
  -1,971
  -2,049
  -2,130
  -2,213
  -2,300
  -2,391
  -2,485
  -2,584
Cash from operations, $m
  2,041
  2,771
  3,477
  4,312
  5,282
  6,391
  7,641
  9,032
  10,565
  12,235
  13,930
  15,869
  17,936
  20,128
  22,443
  24,878
  27,431
  30,100
  32,886
  35,789
  38,811
  41,953
  45,219
  48,612
  52,137
  55,800
  59,606
  63,563
  67,677
  71,957
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -733
  -1,006
  -1,350
  -1,772
  -2,279
  -2,877
  -3,571
  -4,364
  -5,259
  -6,255
  -7,353
  -8,552
  -9,849
  -11,243
  -12,731
  -14,311
  -15,981
  -17,740
  -19,585
  -21,517
  -23,534
  -25,638
  -27,829
  -30,108
  -32,478
  -34,942
  -37,501
  -40,162
  -42,926
  -45,801
New CAPEX, $m
  -2,735
  -3,437
  -4,217
  -5,070
  -5,983
  -6,942
  -7,934
  -8,946
  -9,964
  -10,980
  -11,984
  -12,971
  -13,937
  -14,880
  -15,801
  -16,702
  -17,585
  -18,455
  -19,317
  -20,176
  -21,038
  -21,908
  -22,794
  -23,700
  -24,633
  -25,598
  -26,601
  -27,647
  -28,742
  -29,890
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3,468
  -4,443
  -5,567
  -6,842
  -8,262
  -9,819
  -11,505
  -13,310
  -15,223
  -17,235
  -19,337
  -21,523
  -23,786
  -26,123
  -28,532
  -31,013
  -33,566
  -36,195
  -38,902
  -41,693
  -44,572
  -47,546
  -50,623
  -53,808
  -57,111
  -60,540
  -64,102
  -67,809
  -71,668
  -75,691
Free cash flow, $m
  -1,426
  -1,672
  -2,090
  -2,530
  -2,980
  -3,428
  -3,865
  -4,278
  -4,659
  -5,000
  -5,407
  -5,654
  -5,850
  -5,995
  -6,089
  -6,135
  -6,136
  -6,095
  -6,016
  -5,903
  -5,761
  -5,594
  -5,404
  -5,197
  -4,974
  -4,740
  -4,497
  -4,247
  -3,991
  -3,733
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,264
  4,716
  5,786
  6,956
  8,209
  9,525
  10,886
  12,274
  13,672
  15,065
  16,443
  17,797
  19,122
  20,417
  21,680
  22,916
  24,128
  25,321
  26,504
  27,682
  28,864
  30,059
  31,274
  32,518
  33,798
  35,122
  36,498
  37,934
  39,435
  41,010
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2,525
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3,789
  4,716
  5,786
  6,956
  8,209
  9,525
  10,886
  12,274
  13,672
  15,065
  16,443
  17,797
  19,122
  20,417
  21,680
  22,916
  24,128
  25,321
  26,504
  27,682
  28,864
  30,059
  31,274
  32,518
  33,798
  35,122
  36,498
  37,934
  39,435
  41,010
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2,362
  3,043
  3,696
  4,427
  5,229
  6,097
  7,022
  7,996
  9,013
  10,065
  11,036
  12,143
  13,272
  14,422
  15,591
  16,781
  17,992
  19,227
  20,488
  21,779
  23,103
  24,465
  25,870
  27,321
  28,823
  30,382
  32,001
  33,687
  35,444
  37,277
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2,912
  -524
  -643
  -773
  -912
  -1,058
  -1,210
  -1,364
  -1,519
  -1,674
  -1,827
  -1,977
  -2,125
  -2,269
  -2,409
  -2,546
  -2,681
  -2,813
  -2,945
  -3,076
  -3,207
  -3,340
  -3,475
  -3,613
  -3,755
  -3,902
  -4,055
  -4,215
  -4,382
  -4,557
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -550
  2,519
  3,053
  3,654
  4,317
  5,038
  5,812
  6,632
  7,494
  8,391
  9,209
  10,165
  11,147
  12,153
  13,182
  14,235
  15,311
  16,413
  17,543
  18,703
  19,896
  21,126
  22,395
  23,708
  25,068
  26,479
  27,946
  29,472
  31,062
  32,720
Discount rate, %
  12.50
  13.13
  13.78
  14.47
  15.19
  15.95
  16.75
  17.59
  18.47
  19.39
  20.36
  21.38
  22.45
  23.57
  24.75
  25.99
  27.29
  28.65
  30.08
  31.59
  33.17
  34.82
  36.57
  38.39
  40.31
  42.33
  44.45
  46.67
  49.00
  51.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -488
  1,969
  2,073
  2,128
  2,128
  2,073
  1,966
  1,814
  1,630
  1,426
  1,199
  994
  801
  628
  478
  353
  253
  176
  119
  77
  49
  30
  17
  10
  5
  3
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Ardagh Group SA, formerly Ardagh Finance Holdings SA, is a Luxembourg-based company engaged in the packing industry. The Company focuses on the design and manufacture of rigid packaging solutions mainly for food and beverage markets. Its activities are divided into two business segments: Metal packing, which supplies aluminum and steel beverage cans, two-piece aluminum, two-piece tinplate and three-piece tinplate food and specialty cans, as well as a range of can ends, among others, and Glass packing, which delivers glass containers, bottles and jars, among others. Its products are distributed in customized sizes and shapes, as well as are decorated with printed graphics. The Company operates in Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ardagh Group Cl A (ARD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -66.7
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book -1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 25
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 3.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 98
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -425.8%
Total Debt to Equity -426.2%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 378.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 126.3%
Return On Total Capital -1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.3%
Return On Equity 2.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.2%
EBITDA Margin 16.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Operating Margin 6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.2%
Net Profit Margin -0.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.8%
Effective Tax Rate -5700%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1926.7%
Payout Ratio -491.4%

ARD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $9176 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ardagh Group Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Ardagh Group Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 37.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.5%, whose default value for ARD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ardagh Group Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ardagh Group Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.9% for Ardagh Group Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ardagh Group Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARD are equal to 79.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ardagh Group Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARD is equal to -6.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-1378 million for Ardagh Group Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 236 million for Ardagh Group Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ardagh Group Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Ardagh Group SA. (NYSE:ARD)   [May-12-18 10:27AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Ardagh Group: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ardagh Group S.A. Announces 20-F Filing   [Mar-02-18 04:56PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Ardagh Group posts 4Q profit   [Feb-22-18 07:55AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ardagh Group S.A. Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-08-18 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
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