Intrinsic value of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance - ARI

Previous Close

$18.45

  Intrinsic Value

$23.98

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  Rating & Target

buy

+30%

Previous close

$18.45

 
Intrinsic value

$23.98

 
Up/down potential

+30%

 
Rating

buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ARI.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  37.50
  22.50
  20.75
  19.18
  17.76
  16.48
  15.33
  14.30
  13.37
  12.53
  11.78
  11.10
  10.49
  9.94
  9.45
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.63
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
Revenue, $m
  264
  323
  391
  465
  548
  638
  736
  842
  954
  1,074
  1,200
  1,333
  1,473
  1,620
  1,773
  1,932
  2,099
  2,271
  2,451
  2,638
  2,833
  3,035
  3,244
  3,462
  3,689
  3,925
  4,171
  4,427
  4,693
  4,971
  5,260
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  126
  152
  182
  214
  249
  287
  328
  372
  419
  468
  520
  575
  632
  691
  754
  818
  886
  956
  1,029
  1,105
  1,183
  1,265
  1,350
  1,439
  1,531
  1,627
  1,726
  1,830
  1,939
  2,051
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  72
  126
  152
  182
  214
  249
  287
  328
  372
  419
  468
  520
  575
  632
  691
  754
  818
  886
  956
  1,029
  1,105
  1,183
  1,265
  1,350
  1,439
  1,531
  1,627
  1,726
  1,830
  1,939
  2,051
Operating income, $m
  192
  197
  238
  284
  334
  389
  449
  513
  582
  655
  732
  813
  899
  988
  1,081
  1,179
  1,280
  1,386
  1,495
  1,609
  1,728
  1,851
  1,979
  2,112
  2,250
  2,394
  2,544
  2,700
  2,863
  3,032
  3,209
EBITDA, $m
  192
  197
  238
  284
  334
  389
  449
  513
  582
  655
  732
  813
  899
  988
  1,081
  1,179
  1,280
  1,386
  1,495
  1,609
  1,728
  1,851
  1,979
  2,112
  2,250
  2,394
  2,544
  2,700
  2,863
  3,032
  3,209
Interest expense (income), $m
  53
  57
  72
  88
  107
  127
  148
  172
  198
  225
  254
  285
  317
  351
  386
  423
  462
  502
  544
  588
  633
  680
  729
  780
  833
  888
  945
  1,005
  1,067
  1,131
  1,199
Earnings before tax, $m
  158
  140
  166
  196
  228
  263
  301
  341
  384
  430
  478
  529
  582
  637
  695
  755
  818
  883
  951
  1,021
  1,095
  1,171
  1,250
  1,332
  1,417
  1,506
  1,599
  1,695
  1,796
  1,901
  2,010
Tax expense, $m
  0
  38
  45
  53
  62
  71
  81
  92
  104
  116
  129
  143
  157
  172
  188
  204
  221
  238
  257
  276
  296
  316
  337
  360
  383
  407
  432
  458
  485
  513
  543
Net income, $m
  158
  102
  121
  143
  166
  192
  219
  249
  281
  314
  349
  386
  425
  465
  507
  551
  597
  645
  694
  746
  799
  855
  912
  972
  1,035
  1,100
  1,167
  1,238
  1,311
  1,388
  1,467

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  201
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,483
  4,043
  4,881
  5,817
  6,850
  7,979
  9,203
  10,519
  11,925
  13,420
  15,001
  16,666
  18,415
  20,246
  22,158
  24,154
  26,231
  28,394
  30,642
  32,979
  35,408
  37,931
  40,554
  43,281
  46,116
  49,066
  52,135
  55,332
  58,661
  62,132
  65,750
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,282
  4,043
  4,881
  5,817
  6,850
  7,979
  9,203
  10,519
  11,925
  13,420
  15,001
  16,666
  18,415
  20,246
  22,158
  24,154
  26,231
  28,394
  30,642
  32,979
  35,408
  37,931
  40,554
  43,281
  46,116
  49,066
  52,135
  55,332
  58,661
  62,132
  65,750
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  -246
  -297
  -354
  -417
  -486
  -560
  -640
  -726
  -817
  -913
  -1,015
  -1,121
  -1,233
  -1,349
  -1,470
  -1,597
  -1,729
  -1,865
  -2,008
  -2,156
  -2,309
  -2,469
  -2,635
  -2,808
  -2,987
  -3,174
  -3,369
  -3,571
  -3,783
  -4,003
Total debt, $m
  1,397
  1,758
  2,155
  2,598
  3,086
  3,620
  4,199
  4,821
  5,487
  6,194
  6,941
  7,729
  8,556
  9,422
  10,327
  11,271
  12,253
  13,276
  14,340
  15,445
  16,594
  17,787
  19,028
  20,318
  21,659
  23,054
  24,506
  26,018
  27,593
  29,234
  30,946
Total liabilities, $m
  1,551
  1,912
  2,309
  2,752
  3,240
  3,774
  4,353
  4,975
  5,641
  6,348
  7,095
  7,883
  8,710
  9,576
  10,481
  11,425
  12,407
  13,430
  14,494
  15,599
  16,748
  17,941
  19,182
  20,472
  21,813
  23,208
  24,660
  26,172
  27,747
  29,388
  31,100
Total equity, $m
  1,932
  2,130
  2,572
  3,066
  3,610
  4,205
  4,850
  5,543
  6,285
  7,072
  7,905
  8,783
  9,705
  10,669
  11,678
  12,729
  13,824
  14,963
  16,148
  17,380
  18,660
  19,990
  21,372
  22,809
  24,303
  25,858
  27,475
  29,160
  30,914
  32,743
  34,650
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,483
  4,042
  4,881
  5,818
  6,850
  7,979
  9,203
  10,518
  11,926
  13,420
  15,000
  16,666
  18,415
  20,245
  22,159
  24,154
  26,231
  28,393
  30,642
  32,979
  35,408
  37,931
  40,554
  43,281
  46,116
  49,066
  52,135
  55,332
  58,661
  62,131
  65,750
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.723
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  158
  102
  121
  143
  166
  192
  219
  249
  281
  314
  349
  386
  425
  465
  507
  551
  597
  645
  694
  746
  799
  855
  912
  972
  1,035
  1,100
  1,167
  1,238
  1,311
  1,388
  1,467
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  87
  102
  121
  143
  166
  192
  219
  249
  281
  314
  349
  386
  425
  465
  507
  551
  597
  645
  694
  746
  799
  855
  912
  972
  1,035
  1,100
  1,167
  1,238
  1,311
  1,388
  1,467
Change in working capital, $m
  -32
  -45
  -51
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -220
Cash from operations, $m
  119
  147
  172
  200
  229
  261
  294
  329
  366
  405
  445
  487
  531
  577
  624
  673
  724
  776
  831
  888
  947
  1,008
  1,072
  1,138
  1,207
  1,279
  1,354
  1,432
  1,514
  1,599
  1,688
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  1,039
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  1,158
  147
  172
  200
  229
  261
  294
  329
  366
  405
  445
  487
  531
  577
  624
  673
  724
  776
  831
  888
  947
  1,008
  1,072
  1,138
  1,207
  1,279
  1,354
  1,432
  1,514
  1,599
  1,688
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,038
  361
  397
  443
  489
  534
  579
  622
  665
  707
  748
  788
  827
  866
  905
  944
  983
  1,023
  1,063
  1,105
  1,149
  1,194
  1,241
  1,290
  1,341
  1,395
  1,452
  1,512
  1,575
  1,641
  1,712
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  178
  297
  321
  351
  378
  403
  425
  444
  461
  474
  484
  492
  497
  500
  501
  500
  498
  495
  491
  486
  481
  475
  470
  465
  459
  455
  450
  447
  444
  441
  440
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -865
  658
  718
  794
  867
  937
  1,004
  1,066
  1,126
  1,181
  1,232
  1,280
  1,324
  1,366
  1,406
  1,444
  1,481
  1,518
  1,554
  1,591
  1,630
  1,669
  1,711
  1,755
  1,800
  1,850
  1,902
  1,959
  2,019
  2,082
  2,152
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  294
  806
  890
  993
  1,096
  1,198
  1,298
  1,396
  1,492
  1,586
  1,677
  1,767
  1,855
  1,942
  2,029
  2,116
  2,204
  2,294
  2,385
  2,479
  2,576
  2,677
  2,783
  2,893
  3,008
  3,129
  3,257
  3,391
  3,532
  3,682
  3,839
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -557
  -399
  -442
  -493
  -544
  -595
  -645
  -694
  -741
  -788
  -833
  -878
  -921
  -965
  -1,008
  -1,051
  -1,095
  -1,139
  -1,185
  -1,232
  -1,280
  -1,330
  -1,382
  -1,437
  -1,494
  -1,554
  -1,618
  -1,684
  -1,755
  -1,829
  -1,907
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  201
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  607
  448
  500
  552
  603
  653
  703
  751
  798
  844
  889
  934
  977
  1,021
  1,065
  1,109
  1,154
  1,200
  1,248
  1,297
  1,347
  1,400
  1,456
  1,514
  1,575
  1,639
  1,706
  1,778
  1,853
  1,932
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  565
  385
  394
  395
  390
  377
  359
  336
  310
  281
  250
  219
  189
  160
  133
  109
  88
  69
  53
  40
  30
  22
  15
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  85.7
  74.8
  66.0
  59.0
  53.2
  48.5
  44.5
  41.2
  38.4
  36.0
  33.9
  32.2
  30.6
  29.3
  28.1
  27.1
  26.2
  25.4
  24.7
  24.0
  23.4
  22.9
  22.4
  22.0
  21.6
  21.3
  20.9
  20.6
  20.3
  20.1

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The Company primarily originates, acquires, invests in and manages performing commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The Company targets investments that are secured by institutional quality real estate. The Company's principal business objective is to make investments in its target assets in order to provide attractive risk adjusted returns to its stockholders over the long term, primarily through dividends and secondarily through capital appreciation. The Company is externally managed and advised by ACREFI Management, LLC.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.7
Price to Sales 6.4
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 37.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 72.3%
Total Debt to Equity 72.3%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Total Capital 5.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 76.5%
EBITDA Margin 79.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.4%
Operating Margin 72.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 59.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.3%
Net Profit Margin 59.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 101.3%

ARI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $264 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for ARI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 39%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARI are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARI is equal to -76.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1932 million for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 107.859 million for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Apollo Commerical Finance posts 4Q profit   [Feb-14-18 06:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Apollo Commercial Is a Buy   [03:29PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ How To Make Money From Other People's Mortgages   [Dec-24-17 12:08PM  Forbes]
▶ Apollo Commerical Finance posts 3Q profit   [Nov-01-17 06:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for September 27th   [Sep-27-17 07:24AM  Zacks]
▶ Vultures Begin to Circle Commercial Real Estate   [Aug-30-17 01:41AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Commercial Real Estate Begins to Draw Vultures   [Aug-29-17 07:58AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Apollo Commerical Finance posts 2Q profit   [Aug-01-17 09:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ GFG Alliance to Buy Australia's Arrium   [Jul-18-17 07:23PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ Apollo Commerical Finance posts 1Q profit   [May-02-17 05:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ Five Yields Up To 10% With 40% Price Upside, Too   [Apr-09-17 08:17AM  Forbes]
Financial statements of ARI
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