Intrinsic value of American Railcar Industries - ARII

Previous Close

$70.10

  Intrinsic Value

$8.48

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$70.10

 
Intrinsic value

$8.48

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  34.40
  31.46
  28.81
  26.43
  24.29
  22.36
  20.62
  19.06
  17.66
  16.39
  15.25
  14.23
  13.30
  12.47
  11.73
  11.05
  10.45
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.22
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
Revenue, $m
  641
  842
  1,085
  1,372
  1,705
  2,087
  2,517
  2,997
  3,526
  4,104
  4,730
  5,403
  6,121
  6,885
  7,692
  8,543
  9,435
  10,369
  11,346
  12,363
  13,423
  14,526
  15,673
  16,865
  18,104
  19,392
  20,729
  22,120
  23,567
  25,071
Variable operating expenses, $m
  446
  586
  754
  954
  1,185
  1,450
  1,749
  2,082
  2,450
  2,851
  3,285
  3,752
  4,251
  4,782
  5,342
  5,933
  6,553
  7,202
  7,879
  8,586
  9,323
  10,089
  10,885
  11,713
  12,573
  13,467
  14,397
  15,362
  16,367
  17,412
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  66
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  98
  100
  103
  105
  107
  110
  112
  114
  117
  120
  122
  125
Total operating expenses, $m
  512
  654
  823
  1,025
  1,257
  1,524
  1,825
  2,159
  2,529
  2,932
  3,368
  3,836
  4,337
  4,870
  5,432
  6,025
  6,647
  7,298
  7,977
  8,686
  9,426
  10,194
  10,992
  11,823
  12,685
  13,581
  14,514
  15,482
  16,489
  17,537
Operating income, $m
  129
  189
  261
  348
  448
  563
  693
  837
  997
  1,172
  1,362
  1,566
  1,784
  2,015
  2,260
  2,518
  2,788
  3,072
  3,368
  3,677
  3,998
  4,333
  4,681
  5,043
  5,419
  5,810
  6,216
  6,638
  7,078
  7,535
EBITDA, $m
  206
  291
  393
  513
  653
  814
  996
  1,198
  1,422
  1,666
  1,930
  2,215
  2,519
  2,842
  3,184
  3,544
  3,922
  4,317
  4,730
  5,161
  5,610
  6,078
  6,563
  7,068
  7,593
  8,139
  8,706
  9,295
  9,908
  10,546
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  29
  44
  62
  83
  109
  139
  172
  211
  253
  300
  351
  407
  467
  531
  598
  670
  746
  825
  908
  994
  1,085
  1,179
  1,277
  1,379
  1,484
  1,594
  1,709
  1,828
  1,951
  2,079
Earnings before tax, $m
  99
  145
  200
  264
  339
  424
  520
  627
  744
  872
  1,011
  1,159
  1,317
  1,485
  1,662
  1,848
  2,043
  2,247
  2,460
  2,682
  2,913
  3,154
  3,404
  3,664
  3,934
  4,215
  4,507
  4,811
  5,127
  5,455
Tax expense, $m
  27
  39
  54
  71
  91
  115
  140
  169
  201
  235
  273
  313
  356
  401
  449
  499
  552
  607
  664
  724
  787
  852
  919
  989
  1,062
  1,138
  1,217
  1,299
  1,384
  1,473
Net income, $m
  72
  106
  146
  193
  247
  310
  380
  458
  543
  637
  738
  846
  961
  1,084
  1,213
  1,349
  1,491
  1,640
  1,796
  1,958
  2,127
  2,302
  2,485
  2,675
  2,872
  3,077
  3,290
  3,512
  3,742
  3,982

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,885
  2,478
  3,192
  4,036
  5,016
  6,137
  7,403
  8,814
  10,371
  12,070
  13,911
  15,890
  18,004
  20,250
  22,625
  25,125
  27,750
  30,498
  33,369
  36,363
  39,481
  42,725
  46,098
  49,604
  53,248
  57,034
  60,969
  65,060
  69,314
  73,739
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,885
  2,478
  3,192
  4,036
  5,016
  6,137
  7,403
  8,814
  10,371
  12,070
  13,911
  15,890
  18,004
  20,250
  22,625
  25,125
  27,750
  30,498
  33,369
  36,363
  39,481
  42,725
  46,098
  49,604
  53,248
  57,034
  60,969
  65,060
  69,314
  73,739
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
Average production assets, $m
  1,539
  2,024
  2,607
  3,296
  4,096
  5,012
  6,046
  7,199
  8,470
  9,858
  11,361
  12,977
  14,704
  16,538
  18,477
  20,519
  22,663
  24,907
  27,252
  29,697
  32,243
  34,893
  37,647
  40,511
  43,486
  46,578
  49,792
  53,133
  56,607
  60,221
Working capital, $m
  104
  136
  176
  222
  276
  338
  408
  485
  571
  665
  766
  875
  992
  1,115
  1,246
  1,384
  1,528
  1,680
  1,838
  2,003
  2,175
  2,353
  2,539
  2,732
  2,933
  3,141
  3,358
  3,583
  3,818
  4,062
Total debt, $m
  815
  1,146
  1,546
  2,017
  2,565
  3,192
  3,900
  4,689
  5,559
  6,509
  7,538
  8,644
  9,826
  11,081
  12,408
  13,806
  15,274
  16,810
  18,415
  20,088
  21,831
  23,645
  25,530
  27,490
  29,527
  31,643
  33,843
  36,130
  38,508
  40,982
Total liabilities, $m
  1,054
  1,385
  1,784
  2,256
  2,804
  3,431
  4,138
  4,927
  5,797
  6,747
  7,776
  8,883
  10,064
  11,320
  12,647
  14,045
  15,512
  17,049
  18,653
  20,327
  22,070
  23,883
  25,769
  27,729
  29,765
  31,882
  34,082
  36,368
  38,746
  41,220
Total equity, $m
  831
  1,093
  1,408
  1,780
  2,212
  2,707
  3,265
  3,887
  4,573
  5,323
  6,135
  7,008
  7,940
  8,930
  9,977
  11,080
  12,238
  13,450
  14,716
  16,036
  17,411
  18,842
  20,329
  21,875
  23,482
  25,152
  26,887
  28,691
  30,567
  32,519
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,885
  2,478
  3,192
  4,036
  5,016
  6,138
  7,403
  8,814
  10,370
  12,070
  13,911
  15,891
  18,004
  20,250
  22,624
  25,125
  27,750
  30,499
  33,369
  36,363
  39,481
  42,725
  46,098
  49,604
  53,247
  57,034
  60,969
  65,059
  69,313
  73,739
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.980
  1.050
  1.100
  1.130
  1.160
  1.180
  1.190
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  72
  106
  146
  193
  247
  310
  380
  458
  543
  637
  738
  846
  961
  1,084
  1,213
  1,349
  1,491
  1,640
  1,796
  1,958
  2,127
  2,302
  2,485
  2,675
  2,872
  3,077
  3,290
  3,512
  3,742
  3,982
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  78
  102
  131
  166
  206
  251
  303
  361
  424
  494
  568
  649
  735
  827
  924
  1,026
  1,133
  1,245
  1,363
  1,485
  1,612
  1,745
  1,882
  2,026
  2,174
  2,329
  2,490
  2,657
  2,830
  3,011
Funds from operations, $m
  150
  208
  277
  358
  453
  561
  683
  818
  967
  1,130
  1,306
  1,495
  1,697
  1,911
  2,137
  2,375
  2,624
  2,886
  3,158
  3,443
  3,739
  4,047
  4,367
  4,700
  5,046
  5,406
  5,780
  6,169
  6,573
  6,993
Change in working capital, $m
  27
  33
  39
  46
  54
  62
  70
  78
  86
  94
  101
  109
  116
  124
  131
  138
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
Cash from operations, $m
  124
  175
  237
  312
  399
  499
  613
  741
  882
  1,037
  1,205
  1,386
  1,580
  1,787
  2,006
  2,237
  2,480
  2,734
  3,000
  3,278
  3,567
  3,868
  4,182
  4,507
  4,846
  5,198
  5,563
  5,943
  6,338
  6,750
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -57
  -77
  -101
  -130
  -165
  -205
  -251
  -302
  -360
  -423
  -493
  -568
  -649
  -735
  -827
  -924
  -1,026
  -1,133
  -1,245
  -1,363
  -1,485
  -1,612
  -1,745
  -1,882
  -2,026
  -2,174
  -2,329
  -2,490
  -2,657
  -2,830
New CAPEX, $m
  -394
  -484
  -583
  -689
  -801
  -916
  -1,034
  -1,152
  -1,271
  -1,388
  -1,503
  -1,616
  -1,726
  -1,834
  -1,939
  -2,042
  -2,144
  -2,244
  -2,344
  -2,445
  -2,546
  -2,649
  -2,755
  -2,863
  -2,976
  -3,092
  -3,214
  -3,341
  -3,474
  -3,614
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -451
  -561
  -684
  -819
  -966
  -1,121
  -1,285
  -1,454
  -1,631
  -1,811
  -1,996
  -2,184
  -2,375
  -2,569
  -2,766
  -2,966
  -3,170
  -3,377
  -3,589
  -3,808
  -4,031
  -4,261
  -4,500
  -4,745
  -5,002
  -5,266
  -5,543
  -5,831
  -6,131
  -6,444
Free cash flow, $m
  -328
  -386
  -447
  -508
  -566
  -622
  -671
  -714
  -749
  -775
  -792
  -798
  -795
  -782
  -760
  -729
  -690
  -643
  -590
  -530
  -464
  -393
  -318
  -238
  -155
  -69
  20
  113
  208
  305
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  269
  331
  399
  472
  548
  627
  708
  789
  870
  950
  1,029
  1,106
  1,182
  1,255
  1,327
  1,398
  1,467
  1,536
  1,605
  1,673
  1,743
  1,813
  1,886
  1,960
  2,037
  2,117
  2,200
  2,287
  2,378
  2,474
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  140
  156
  169
  179
  185
  185
  178
  165
  143
  113
  74
  27
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  409
  487
  568
  651
  733
  812
  886
  954
  1,013
  1,063
  1,103
  1,133
  1,182
  1,255
  1,327
  1,398
  1,467
  1,536
  1,605
  1,673
  1,743
  1,813
  1,886
  1,960
  2,037
  2,117
  2,200
  2,287
  2,378
  2,474
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  82
  101
  121
  143
  166
  190
  215
  239
  264
  288
  311
  335
  387
  473
  567
  669
  777
  893
  1,015
  1,144
  1,279
  1,420
  1,568
  1,721
  1,881
  2,048
  2,220
  2,399
  2,586
  2,779
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -212
  -262
  -315
  -372
  -432
  -495
  -558
  -622
  -686
  -750
  -812
  -873
  -932
  -990
  -1,047
  -1,103
  -1,158
  -1,212
  -1,266
  -1,320
  -1,375
  -1,431
  -1,488
  -1,546
  -1,607
  -1,670
  -1,735
  -1,804
  -1,876
  -1,952
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -86
  -161
  -193
  -229
  -266
  -304
  -343
  -383
  -422
  -461
  -501
  -538
  -546
  -517
  -480
  -434
  -380
  -319
  -251
  -176
  -96
  -10
  80
  175
  275
  378
  485
  595
  710
  827
Discount rate, %
  5.90
  6.20
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.91
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.60
  11.13
  11.68
  12.27
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -81
  -142
  -160
  -176
  -188
  -197
  -202
  -202
  -199
  -192
  -182
  -170
  -147
  -118
  -91
  -68
  -48
  -33
  -20
  -11
  -5
  0
  2
  3
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  90.1
  82.5
  76.7
  72.2
  68.7
  66.0
  64.0
  62.4
  61.3
  60.6
  60.2
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0
  60.0

American Railcar Industries, Inc. is a designer and manufacturer of hopper and tank railcars. The Company designs and manufactures railcars and a range of components for the North American railcar and industrial markets. It operates through three segments: manufacturing, railcar leasing and railcar services. The Company's Manufacturing segment consists of railcar manufacturing and railcar and industrial component manufacturing. The Railcar leasing segment consists of railcars manufactured by it and leased to third parties under operating leases. The Railcar services segment consists of railcar repair, engineering and field services. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's operations included eight manufacturing plants that fabricate and assemble raw materials, mainly steel, into railcars, railcar components and industrial components; eight railcar repair plants; and 11 mobile repair (mobile units) and mini repair shop (mini shop) locations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Railcar Industries (ARII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.3
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -28.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -54.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 99.1%
Total Debt to Equity 103.8%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Return On Equity 13.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.2%
EBITDA Margin 29.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.6%
Operating Margin 20.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 17.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Net Profit Margin 11.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Effective Tax Rate 36%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.4%
Payout Ratio 42.5%

ARII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $476.843 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Railcar Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of American Railcar Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 34.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.9%, whose default value for ARII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Railcar Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Railcar Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $65 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for American Railcar Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Railcar Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARII are equal to 240.2%.

Life of production assets of 20 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Railcar Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARII is equal to 16.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $663.534 million for American Railcar Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.362 million for American Railcar Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Railcar Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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