Intrinsic value of American Railcar Industries - ARII

Previous Close

$39.30

  Intrinsic Value

$46.58

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+19%

  Value-price divergence*

-45%

Previous close

$39.30

 
Intrinsic value

$46.58

 
Up/down potential

+19%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-45%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -28.12
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  639
  652
  667
  684
  703
  724
  748
  773
  801
  831
  862
  897
  933
  972
  1,013
  1,057
  1,103
  1,152
  1,204
  1,258
  1,316
  1,377
  1,442
  1,509
  1,581
  1,656
  1,735
  1,819
  1,907
  1,999
  2,096
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  407
  416
  427
  439
  452
  467
  482
  500
  518
  538
  558
  581
  605
  631
  658
  687
  718
  750
  784
  820
  858
  898
  940
  985
  1,032
  1,081
  1,133
  1,188
  1,245
  1,306
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  138
  141
  145
  148
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  176
  181
  185
  190
  195
  199
  204
  209
  215
  220
  226
  231
  237
Total operating expenses, $m
  509
  523
  535
  549
  564
  580
  598
  616
  638
  659
  683
  706
  733
  761
  791
  822
  855
  890
  926
  965
  1,005
  1,048
  1,093
  1,139
  1,189
  1,241
  1,296
  1,353
  1,414
  1,476
  1,543
Operating income, $m
  130
  129
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  157
  164
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  235
  248
  262
  278
  294
  311
  330
  349
  370
  392
  415
  440
  466
  493
  523
  553
EBITDA, $m
  182
  183
  187
  192
  197
  204
  211
  220
  229
  239
  250
  262
  275
  289
  304
  320
  337
  356
  375
  396
  418
  441
  466
  492
  520
  549
  580
  613
  648
  684
  723
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
Earnings before tax, $m
  114
  110
  112
  115
  118
  122
  127
  132
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  234
  248
  262
  278
  294
  312
  331
  351
  372
  394
  417
  442
  469
Tax expense, $m
  41
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  113
  119
  127
Net income, $m
  73
  80
  82
  84
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  153
  161
  171
  181
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
  256
  271
  288
  305
  323
  342

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  188
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,456
  1,293
  1,323
  1,357
  1,395
  1,437
  1,484
  1,534
  1,589
  1,648
  1,711
  1,779
  1,851
  1,928
  2,010
  2,096
  2,188
  2,285
  2,388
  2,497
  2,612
  2,733
  2,860
  2,995
  3,137
  3,286
  3,443
  3,609
  3,783
  3,966
  4,159
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,268
  1,293
  1,323
  1,357
  1,395
  1,437
  1,484
  1,534
  1,589
  1,648
  1,711
  1,779
  1,851
  1,928
  2,010
  2,096
  2,188
  2,285
  2,388
  2,497
  2,612
  2,733
  2,860
  2,995
  3,137
  3,286
  3,443
  3,609
  3,783
  3,966
  4,159
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
Average production assets, $m
  1,055
  1,076
  1,101
  1,129
  1,161
  1,196
  1,235
  1,277
  1,322
  1,371
  1,424
  1,480
  1,540
  1,604
  1,672
  1,744
  1,821
  1,902
  1,987
  2,078
  2,173
  2,274
  2,380
  2,492
  2,610
  2,734
  2,865
  3,003
  3,148
  3,300
  3,461
Working capital, $m
  239
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  90
  94
  97
  101
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  146
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
Total debt, $m
  571
  562
  583
  607
  633
  663
  695
  730
  768
  809
  853
  900
  950
  1,003
  1,060
  1,120
  1,184
  1,251
  1,322
  1,398
  1,478
  1,562
  1,650
  1,744
  1,842
  1,946
  2,055
  2,170
  2,290
  2,418
  2,551
Total liabilities, $m
  906
  897
  918
  942
  968
  998
  1,030
  1,065
  1,103
  1,144
  1,188
  1,235
  1,285
  1,338
  1,395
  1,455
  1,519
  1,586
  1,657
  1,733
  1,813
  1,897
  1,985
  2,079
  2,177
  2,281
  2,390
  2,505
  2,625
  2,753
  2,886
Total equity, $m
  550
  396
  405
  415
  427
  440
  454
  470
  486
  504
  524
  544
  566
  590
  615
  641
  670
  699
  731
  764
  799
  836
  875
  916
  960
  1,006
  1,054
  1,104
  1,158
  1,214
  1,273
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,456
  1,293
  1,323
  1,357
  1,395
  1,438
  1,484
  1,535
  1,589
  1,648
  1,712
  1,779
  1,851
  1,928
  2,010
  2,096
  2,189
  2,285
  2,388
  2,497
  2,612
  2,733
  2,860
  2,995
  3,137
  3,287
  3,444
  3,609
  3,783
  3,967
  4,159
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.038
  1.420
  1.440
  1.460
  1.480
  1.510
  1.530
  1.550
  1.580
  1.600
  1.630
  1.650
  1.680
  1.700
  1.720
  1.750
  1.770
  1.790
  1.810
  1.830
  1.850
  1.870
  1.890
  1.900
  1.920
  1.930
  1.950
  1.960
  1.980
  1.990
  2.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.285
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  73
  80
  82
  84
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  153
  161
  171
  181
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
  256
  271
  288
  305
  323
  342
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
Funds from operations, $m
  211
  134
  137
  140
  144
  149
  154
  160
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  208
  219
  230
  242
  255
  268
  283
  298
  314
  332
  350
  369
  390
  412
  435
  459
  485
  512
Change in working capital, $m
  30
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  181
  132
  135
  138
  142
  146
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
  214
  225
  236
  249
  262
  276
  291
  307
  324
  342
  361
  381
  402
  425
  448
  474
  500
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
New CAPEX, $m
  -113
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -115
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -187
  -197
  -208
  -217
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -265
  -278
  -292
  -306
  -322
Free cash flow, $m
  66
  60
  57
  56
  55
  54
  54
  54
  55
  56
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  156
  167
  178
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -126
  17
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -154
  17
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -88
  77
  78
  79
  81
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  164
  173
  184
  195
  207
  219
  232
  246
  261
  277
  294
  312
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  162
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  231
  69
  69
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  138
  147
  156
  165
  176
  187
  198
  211
  224
  238
  253
Discount rate, %
 
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  219
  61
  58
  54
  51
  48
  44
  41
  39
  36
  33
  30
  27
  24
  21
  19
  16
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

American Railcar Industries, Inc. is a designer and manufacturer of hopper and tank railcars. The Company designs and manufactures railcars and a range of components for the North American railcar and industrial markets. It operates through three segments: manufacturing, railcar leasing and railcar services. The Company's Manufacturing segment consists of railcar manufacturing and railcar and industrial component manufacturing. The Railcar leasing segment consists of railcars manufactured by it and leased to third parties under operating leases. The Railcar services segment consists of railcar repair, engineering and field services. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's operations included eight manufacturing plants that fabricate and assemble raw materials, mainly steel, into railcars, railcar components and industrial components; eight railcar repair plants; and 11 mobile repair (mobile units) and mini repair shop (mini shop) locations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Railcar Industries (ARII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.3
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 11
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -28.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -54.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 99.1%
Total Debt to Equity 103.8%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Return On Equity 13.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.2%
EBITDA Margin 29.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.6%
Operating Margin 20.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 17.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Net Profit Margin 11.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Effective Tax Rate 36%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.4%
Payout Ratio 42.5%

ARII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $639 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Railcar Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of American Railcar Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for ARII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Railcar Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Railcar Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $113 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for American Railcar Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Railcar Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARII are equal to 165.1%.

Life of production assets of 20.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Railcar Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARII is equal to 12.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $550 million for American Railcar Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.1 million for American Railcar Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Railcar Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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Financial statements of ARII
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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