Intrinsic value of Arena Pharmaceuticals - ARNA

Previous Close

$39.55

  Intrinsic Value

$37.93

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-4%

Previous close

$39.55

 
Intrinsic value

$37.93

 
Up/down potential

-4%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARNA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  34
  53
  79
  114
  161
  222
  298
  391
  503
  636
  790
  965
  1,164
  1,385
  1,628
  1,894
  2,181
  2,491
  2,821
  3,171
  3,542
  3,932
  4,342
  4,770
  5,218
  5,685
  6,172
  6,677
  7,204
  7,750
Variable operating expenses, $m
  36
  55
  83
  120
  169
  233
  312
  410
  528
  666
  828
  1,012
  1,220
  1,451
  1,706
  1,985
  2,286
  2,610
  2,956
  3,323
  3,712
  4,121
  4,550
  4,999
  5,469
  5,958
  6,468
  6,998
  7,549
  8,122
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  36
  55
  83
  120
  169
  233
  312
  410
  528
  666
  828
  1,012
  1,220
  1,451
  1,706
  1,985
  2,286
  2,610
  2,956
  3,323
  3,712
  4,121
  4,550
  4,999
  5,469
  5,958
  6,468
  6,998
  7,549
  8,122
Operating income, $m
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -19
  -24
  -31
  -38
  -46
  -56
  -66
  -78
  -91
  -105
  -120
  -135
  -152
  -170
  -189
  -208
  -229
  -250
  -273
  -296
  -321
  -346
  -372
EBITDA, $m
  5
  8
  12
  18
  25
  35
  47
  61
  79
  99
  123
  151
  182
  216
  255
  296
  341
  389
  441
  496
  554
  615
  679
  746
  816
  889
  965
  1,044
  1,126
  1,212
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  6
  14
  24
  40
  61
  88
  123
  168
  222
  288
  366
  455
  558
  674
  803
  946
  1,101
  1,269
  1,450
  1,643
  1,848
  2,065
  2,293
  2,533
  2,783
  3,045
  3,318
  3,603
  3,899
  4,206
Earnings before tax, $m
  -8
  -16
  -28
  -45
  -68
  -99
  -138
  -187
  -247
  -319
  -403
  -502
  -614
  -741
  -881
  -1,037
  -1,206
  -1,389
  -1,585
  -1,795
  -2,018
  -2,254
  -2,502
  -2,762
  -3,034
  -3,318
  -3,615
  -3,923
  -4,244
  -4,578
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -8
  -16
  -28
  -45
  -68
  -99
  -138
  -187
  -247
  -319
  -403
  -502
  -614
  -741
  -881
  -1,037
  -1,206
  -1,389
  -1,585
  -1,795
  -2,018
  -2,254
  -2,502
  -2,762
  -3,034
  -3,318
  -3,615
  -3,923
  -4,244
  -4,578

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  261
  403
  602
  874
  1,233
  1,695
  2,275
  2,987
  3,843
  4,854
  6,028
  7,370
  8,883
  10,569
  12,427
  14,456
  16,652
  19,012
  21,532
  24,208
  27,037
  30,016
  33,143
  36,416
  39,834
  43,399
  47,111
  50,973
  54,989
  59,163
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  261
  403
  602
  874
  1,233
  1,695
  2,275
  2,987
  3,843
  4,854
  6,028
  7,370
  8,883
  10,569
  12,427
  14,456
  16,652
  19,012
  21,532
  24,208
  27,037
  30,016
  33,143
  36,416
  39,834
  43,399
  47,111
  50,973
  54,989
  59,163
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.130
  0.132
  0.131
  0.130
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
Average production assets, $m
  53
  82
  123
  178
  251
  345
  463
  608
  782
  988
  1,226
  1,499
  1,807
  2,150
  2,528
  2,941
  3,388
  3,868
  4,381
  4,925
  5,501
  6,107
  6,743
  7,409
  8,104
  8,829
  9,584
  10,370
  11,187
  12,036
Working capital, $m
  -55
  -86
  -128
  -186
  -262
  -361
  -484
  -636
  -818
  -1,033
  -1,283
  -1,569
  -1,891
  -2,250
  -2,645
  -3,077
  -3,545
  -4,047
  -4,584
  -5,153
  -5,756
  -6,390
  -7,055
  -7,752
  -8,480
  -9,238
  -10,029
  -10,851
  -11,706
  -12,594
Total debt, $m
  142
  255
  414
  631
  917
  1,286
  1,749
  2,317
  3,000
  3,807
  4,744
  5,815
  7,022
  8,368
  9,851
  11,469
  13,222
  15,105
  17,116
  19,252
  21,509
  23,887
  26,382
  28,993
  31,721
  34,566
  37,528
  40,610
  43,815
  47,146
Total liabilities, $m
  208
  321
  481
  697
  984
  1,352
  1,815
  2,383
  3,067
  3,874
  4,810
  5,881
  7,089
  8,434
  9,917
  11,536
  13,288
  15,171
  17,182
  19,318
  21,576
  23,953
  26,448
  29,060
  31,788
  34,632
  37,594
  40,676
  43,881
  47,212
Total equity, $m
  53
  81
  122
  176
  249
  342
  459
  603
  776
  981
  1,218
  1,489
  1,794
  2,135
  2,510
  2,920
  3,364
  3,840
  4,349
  4,890
  5,462
  6,063
  6,695
  7,356
  8,046
  8,767
  9,516
  10,297
  11,108
  11,951
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  261
  402
  603
  873
  1,233
  1,694
  2,274
  2,986
  3,843
  4,855
  6,028
  7,370
  8,883
  10,569
  12,427
  14,456
  16,652
  19,011
  21,531
  24,208
  27,038
  30,016
  33,143
  36,416
  39,834
  43,399
  47,110
  50,973
  54,989
  59,163
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.690
  3.130
  3.400
  3.570
  3.680
  3.760
  3.810
  3.840
  3.860
  3.880
  3.900
  3.910
  3.910
  3.920
  3.920
  3.930
  3.930
  3.930
  3.940
  3.940
  3.940
  3.940
  3.940
  3.940
  3.940
  3.940
  3.940
  3.940
  3.940
  3.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -8
  -16
  -28
  -45
  -68
  -99
  -138
  -187
  -247
  -319
  -403
  -502
  -614
  -741
  -881
  -1,037
  -1,206
  -1,389
  -1,585
  -1,795
  -2,018
  -2,254
  -2,502
  -2,762
  -3,034
  -3,318
  -3,615
  -3,923
  -4,244
  -4,578
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  11
  16
  23
  33
  45
  61
  80
  103
  130
  161
  197
  238
  283
  333
  387
  446
  509
  576
  648
  724
  804
  887
  975
  1,066
  1,162
  1,261
  1,364
  1,472
  1,584
Funds from operations, $m
  -1
  -5
  -12
  -22
  -35
  -53
  -77
  -107
  -144
  -189
  -242
  -304
  -376
  -458
  -549
  -650
  -760
  -880
  -1,009
  -1,147
  -1,294
  -1,450
  -1,614
  -1,787
  -1,968
  -2,156
  -2,353
  -2,559
  -2,772
  -2,995
Change in working capital, $m
  -21
  -30
  -42
  -58
  -76
  -98
  -123
  -152
  -182
  -215
  -250
  -286
  -322
  -359
  -396
  -432
  -467
  -502
  -536
  -570
  -602
  -634
  -666
  -697
  -728
  -759
  -790
  -822
  -855
  -889
Cash from operations, $m
  20
  25
  30
  36
  41
  45
  47
  45
  39
  27
  8
  -19
  -54
  -99
  -153
  -218
  -293
  -378
  -473
  -578
  -692
  -816
  -949
  -1,090
  -1,240
  -1,398
  -1,563
  -1,737
  -1,917
  -2,106
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -23
  -33
  -45
  -61
  -80
  -103
  -130
  -161
  -197
  -238
  -283
  -333
  -387
  -446
  -509
  -576
  -648
  -724
  -804
  -887
  -975
  -1,066
  -1,162
  -1,261
  -1,364
  -1,472
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -29
  -41
  -55
  -73
  -94
  -118
  -145
  -174
  -206
  -239
  -273
  -308
  -343
  -378
  -413
  -447
  -480
  -513
  -544
  -576
  -606
  -636
  -666
  -695
  -725
  -755
  -786
  -817
  -849
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -24
  -36
  -52
  -71
  -96
  -127
  -163
  -206
  -254
  -309
  -369
  -434
  -505
  -581
  -661
  -746
  -834
  -926
  -1,022
  -1,120
  -1,224
  -1,330
  -1,440
  -1,553
  -1,670
  -1,791
  -1,917
  -2,047
  -2,181
  -2,321
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  -11
  -21
  -35
  -55
  -82
  -117
  -161
  -216
  -282
  -361
  -453
  -559
  -680
  -814
  -963
  -1,126
  -1,303
  -1,494
  -1,698
  -1,916
  -2,146
  -2,388
  -2,643
  -2,910
  -3,189
  -3,480
  -3,783
  -4,099
  -4,427
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  80
  113
  159
  217
  286
  369
  463
  568
  683
  807
  937
  1,071
  1,208
  1,345
  1,483
  1,619
  1,752
  1,883
  2,011
  2,136
  2,258
  2,377
  2,495
  2,612
  2,728
  2,844
  2,962
  3,082
  3,205
  3,331
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  28
  45
  69
  100
  141
  192
  255
  331
  420
  523
  640
  773
  920
  1,081
  1,257
  1,446
  1,649
  1,866
  2,095
  2,336
  2,590
  2,855
  3,133
  3,423
  3,724
  4,038
  4,364
  4,703
  5,056
  5,421
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  108
  158
  228
  317
  427
  561
  718
  899
  1,103
  1,330
  1,577
  1,844
  2,128
  2,426
  2,740
  3,065
  3,401
  3,749
  4,106
  4,472
  4,848
  5,232
  5,628
  6,035
  6,452
  6,882
  7,326
  7,785
  8,261
  8,752
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  103
  147
  207
  281
  372
  479
  601
  738
  887
  1,048
  1,216
  1,390
  1,568
  1,747
  1,926
  2,102
  2,276
  2,445
  2,611
  2,773
  2,932
  3,087
  3,240
  3,391
  3,542
  3,694
  3,847
  4,002
  4,161
  4,325
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -28
  -45
  -69
  -100
  -141
  -192
  -255
  -331
  -420
  -523
  -640
  -773
  -920
  -1,081
  -1,257
  -1,446
  -1,649
  -1,866
  -2,095
  -2,336
  -2,590
  -2,855
  -3,133
  -3,423
  -3,724
  -4,038
  -4,364
  -4,703
  -5,056
  -5,421
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  175
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  250
  102
  138
  181
  231
  287
  346
  407
  468
  525
  576
  618
  648
  666
  669
  656
  626
  580
  517
  437
  342
  231
  107
  -32
  -182
  -345
  -518
  -701
  -894
  -1,096
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  240
  94
  120
  149
  179
  208
  234
  255
  269
  275
  273
  264
  246
  224
  196
  167
  136
  107
  80
  56
  35
  19
  7
  -2
  -7
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  91.6
  84.0
  77.1
  70.9
  65.4
  60.4
  56.0
  52.0
  48.4
  45.2
  42.2
  39.6
  37.1
  34.9
  32.8
  30.9
  29.2
  27.6
  26.0
  24.6
  23.3
  22.1
  20.9
  19.9
  18.8
  17.9
  17.0
  16.1
  15.3
  14.6

Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on developing small molecule drugs across a range of therapeutic areas. The Company has three primary investigational clinical programs: etrasimod (APD334) in Phase II evaluation for ulcerative colitis, APD371 entering Phase II evaluation for the treatment of pain associated with Crohn's disease, and ralinepag (APD811) in Phase II evaluation for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The Company's drug, Lorcaserin, is approved for marketing in the United States and South Korea for the indication of weight management. The Company's drug candidates in clinical development include APD334 for autoimmune diseases, ralinepag for vascular diseases and APD371 for pain. The Company's programs under collaboration include nelotanserin for dementia-associated psychosis, temanogrel for thrombotic diseases, and an undisclosed orphan GPCR for central nervous system (CNS) indication(s).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -41.9
Price to Sales 7.8
Price to Book 24.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -15.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -15.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 226.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -90.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -35.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 23
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 152.5%
Total Debt to Equity 162.5%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.1%
Return On Total Capital -20.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -51.1%
Return On Equity -48.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -116.9%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 87.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 77.4%
EBITDA Margin -6.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -121.6%
Operating Margin -13.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -190.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -18.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -155.9%
Net Profit Margin -18.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -155.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ARNA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARNA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $21.337 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Arena Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Arena Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARNA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ARNA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Arena Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Arena Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARNA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 104.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARNA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.6% for Arena Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Arena Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARNA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARNA are equal to 155.3%.

Life of production assets of 7.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Arena Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARNA is equal to -162.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $207.144 million for Arena Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 49.234 million for Arena Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Arena Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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