Intrinsic value of ARRIS International - ARRS

Previous Close

$26.52

  Intrinsic Value

$20.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-22%

Previous close

$26.52

 
Intrinsic value

$20.82

 
Up/down potential

-22%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARRS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.05
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
Revenue, $m
  6,859
  7,122
  7,403
  7,703
  8,022
  8,362
  8,722
  9,104
  9,508
  9,936
  10,388
  10,865
  11,368
  11,899
  12,458
  13,048
  13,669
  14,323
  15,011
  15,735
  16,497
  17,298
  18,141
  19,027
  19,959
  20,938
  21,968
  23,049
  24,186
  25,381
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6,734
  6,977
  7,236
  7,513
  7,808
  8,121
  8,454
  8,806
  9,179
  9,574
  9,585
  10,026
  10,490
  10,980
  11,496
  12,040
  12,613
  13,217
  13,852
  14,520
  15,223
  15,962
  16,740
  17,558
  18,418
  19,321
  20,271
  21,269
  22,318
  23,421
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,734
  6,977
  7,236
  7,513
  7,808
  8,121
  8,454
  8,806
  9,179
  9,574
  9,585
  10,026
  10,490
  10,980
  11,496
  12,040
  12,613
  13,217
  13,852
  14,520
  15,223
  15,962
  16,740
  17,558
  18,418
  19,321
  20,271
  21,269
  22,318
  23,421
Operating income, $m
  125
  145
  167
  190
  215
  241
  269
  298
  329
  362
  802
  839
  878
  919
  962
  1,008
  1,056
  1,106
  1,159
  1,215
  1,274
  1,336
  1,401
  1,469
  1,541
  1,617
  1,697
  1,780
  1,868
  1,960
EBITDA, $m
  795
  825
  858
  893
  930
  969
  1,011
  1,055
  1,102
  1,152
  1,204
  1,259
  1,317
  1,379
  1,444
  1,512
  1,584
  1,660
  1,740
  1,824
  1,912
  2,005
  2,102
  2,205
  2,313
  2,427
  2,546
  2,671
  2,803
  2,941
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  119
  128
  137
  147
  158
  170
  182
  195
  209
  224
  240
  256
  273
  292
  311
  331
  353
  375
  399
  424
  451
  478
  507
  538
  570
  604
  640
  677
  717
  758
Earnings before tax, $m
  6
  17
  29
  42
  56
  71
  86
  103
  120
  138
  563
  583
  605
  627
  651
  676
  703
  731
  760
  791
  824
  858
  894
  931
  971
  1,013
  1,057
  1,103
  1,151
  1,202
Tax expense, $m
  2
  5
  8
  11
  15
  19
  23
  28
  32
  37
  152
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  197
  205
  214
  222
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
Net income, $m
  4
  13
  22
  31
  41
  52
  63
  75
  88
  101
  411
  426
  441
  458
  475
  494
  513
  533
  555
  577
  601
  626
  652
  680
  709
  739
  771
  805
  840
  878

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,911
  8,214
  8,539
  8,885
  9,253
  9,645
  10,060
  10,501
  10,967
  11,460
  11,981
  12,531
  13,112
  13,724
  14,370
  15,050
  15,766
  16,520
  17,314
  18,149
  19,028
  19,952
  20,924
  21,946
  23,021
  24,150
  25,337
  26,585
  27,896
  29,274
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,911
  8,214
  8,539
  8,885
  9,253
  9,645
  10,060
  10,501
  10,967
  11,460
  11,981
  12,531
  13,112
  13,724
  14,370
  15,050
  15,766
  16,520
  17,314
  18,149
  19,028
  19,952
  20,924
  21,946
  23,021
  24,150
  25,337
  26,585
  27,896
  29,274
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
  0.867
Average production assets, $m
  2,387
  2,478
  2,576
  2,681
  2,792
  2,910
  3,035
  3,168
  3,309
  3,458
  3,615
  3,781
  3,956
  4,141
  4,336
  4,541
  4,757
  4,984
  5,224
  5,476
  5,741
  6,020
  6,313
  6,622
  6,946
  7,287
  7,645
  8,021
  8,417
  8,832
Working capital, $m
  576
  598
  622
  647
  674
  702
  733
  765
  799
  835
  873
  913
  955
  1,000
  1,047
  1,096
  1,148
  1,203
  1,261
  1,322
  1,386
  1,453
  1,524
  1,598
  1,677
  1,759
  1,845
  1,936
  2,032
  2,132
Total debt, $m
  2,364
  2,541
  2,731
  2,933
  3,148
  3,377
  3,619
  3,877
  4,149
  4,437
  4,741
  5,062
  5,401
  5,759
  6,136
  6,533
  6,951
  7,392
  7,855
  8,343
  8,856
  9,396
  9,964
  10,561
  11,188
  11,848
  12,541
  13,270
  14,036
  14,840
Total liabilities, $m
  4,620
  4,797
  4,987
  5,189
  5,404
  5,632
  5,875
  6,132
  6,405
  6,693
  6,997
  7,318
  7,657
  8,015
  8,392
  8,789
  9,207
  9,648
  10,111
  10,599
  11,112
  11,652
  12,220
  12,817
  13,444
  14,104
  14,797
  15,526
  16,291
  17,096
Total equity, $m
  3,291
  3,417
  3,552
  3,696
  3,849
  4,012
  4,185
  4,368
  4,562
  4,767
  4,984
  5,213
  5,455
  5,709
  5,978
  6,261
  6,559
  6,872
  7,202
  7,550
  7,916
  8,300
  8,704
  9,130
  9,577
  10,046
  10,540
  11,059
  11,605
  12,178
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,911
  8,214
  8,539
  8,885
  9,253
  9,644
  10,060
  10,500
  10,967
  11,460
  11,981
  12,531
  13,112
  13,724
  14,370
  15,050
  15,766
  16,520
  17,313
  18,149
  19,028
  19,952
  20,924
  21,947
  23,021
  24,150
  25,337
  26,585
  27,896
  29,274
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.720
  0.740
  0.770
  0.790
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.890
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
  1.060
  1.080
  1.090
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  13
  22
  31
  41
  52
  63
  75
  88
  101
  411
  426
  441
  458
  475
  494
  513
  533
  555
  577
  601
  626
  652
  680
  709
  739
  771
  805
  840
  878
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  670
  680
  691
  703
  715
  728
  742
  757
  773
  789
  402
  420
  440
  460
  482
  505
  529
  554
  580
  608
  638
  669
  701
  736
  772
  810
  849
  891
  935
  981
Funds from operations, $m
  675
  693
  713
  734
  756
  780
  805
  832
  860
  890
  812
  846
  881
  918
  957
  998
  1,042
  1,087
  1,135
  1,186
  1,239
  1,295
  1,354
  1,416
  1,481
  1,549
  1,621
  1,696
  1,776
  1,859
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
Cash from operations, $m
  654
  671
  689
  709
  729
  751
  775
  800
  826
  854
  774
  806
  839
  873
  910
  949
  989
  1,032
  1,077
  1,125
  1,175
  1,228
  1,283
  1,341
  1,402
  1,467
  1,534
  1,605
  1,680
  1,759
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -255
  -265
  -275
  -286
  -298
  -310
  -323
  -337
  -352
  -368
  -384
  -402
  -420
  -440
  -460
  -482
  -505
  -529
  -554
  -580
  -608
  -638
  -669
  -701
  -736
  -772
  -810
  -849
  -891
  -935
New CAPEX, $m
  -88
  -91
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -324
  -341
  -358
  -376
  -396
  -416
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -343
  -356
  -373
  -390
  -409
  -428
  -448
  -470
  -493
  -517
  -541
  -568
  -595
  -625
  -655
  -687
  -721
  -757
  -793
  -832
  -873
  -917
  -962
  -1,009
  -1,060
  -1,113
  -1,168
  -1,225
  -1,287
  -1,351
Free cash flow, $m
  310
  314
  316
  318
  320
  323
  326
  330
  334
  338
  233
  238
  243
  249
  255
  262
  269
  276
  284
  293
  301
  311
  321
  331
  342
  354
  367
  380
  393
  408
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  165
  177
  189
  202
  215
  229
  243
  257
  272
  288
  304
  321
  339
  358
  377
  397
  418
  440
  464
  488
  513
  540
  568
  597
  628
  660
  693
  729
  766
  805
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  118
  113
  113
  113
  112
  111
  110
  108
  106
  104
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  283
  290
  302
  315
  327
  340
  353
  365
  378
  392
  304
  321
  339
  358
  377
  397
  418
  440
  464
  488
  513
  540
  568
  597
  628
  660
  693
  729
  766
  805
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  593
  605
  619
  633
  648
  663
  679
  695
  712
  730
  537
  559
  582
  607
  632
  659
  687
  717
  748
  780
  815
  851
  889
  928
  970
  1,014
  1,060
  1,108
  1,159
  1,212
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -123
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -183
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -229
  -242
  -255
  -268
  -283
  -298
  -314
  -330
  -347
  -366
  -385
  -404
  -425
  -447
  -470
  -494
  -519
  -545
  -573
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  471
  479
  484
  489
  495
  500
  506
  512
  518
  525
  321
  330
  341
  352
  364
  376
  389
  403
  418
  433
  449
  466
  484
  503
  523
  544
  566
  589
  614
  639
Discount rate, %
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  446
  427
  404
  380
  356
  331
  305
  279
  253
  228
  123
  110
  98
  86
  75
  65
  55
  46
  38
  31
  24
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.6
  95.4
  93.4
  91.4
  89.6
  87.9
  86.4
  84.9
  83.6
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3

ARRIS International plc is a media entertainment and data communications solutions provider. The Company operates in two segments: Customer Premises Equipment (CPE), and Network & Cloud (N&C). The Company enables service providers, including cable, telephone, and digital broadcast satellite operators, and media programmers to deliver media, voice and Internet Protocol (IP) data services to their subscribers. It is engaged in offering set-tops, digital video and IP television (IPTV) distribution systems, broadband access infrastructure platforms, and associated data and voice CPE, which it also sells directly to consumers through retail channels. Its solutions are complemented by an array of services, including technical support, repair and refurbishment, and system design and integration. The CPE segment consists of CPE Products-Video and CPE Products-Broadband. The N&C segment consists of Infrastructure Products, Cloud Software and Global Services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ARRIS International (ARRS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 280.1
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 42.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -19.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 13
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 68.4%
Total Debt to Equity 71%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital 0.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Equity 0.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
EBITDA Margin 8.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Operating Margin 1.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Net Profit Margin 0.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Effective Tax Rate 62.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

ARRS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARRS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6614.392 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ARRIS International. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of ARRIS International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARRS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for ARRS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ARRIS International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ARRIS International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARRS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARRS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for ARRIS International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ARRIS International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARRS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARRS are equal to 34.8%.

Life of production assets of 9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ARRIS International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARRS is equal to 8.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3168.567 million for ARRIS International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 180.331 million for ARRIS International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ARRIS International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ARRIS Launches Managed Business Networks   [Sep-13-18 02:28PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Arris Group: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ ARRIS to Present at NASDAQ 38th Investor Conference   [Jun-01-18 10:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ARRIS to Present at Jefferies 2018 Technology Conference   [May-03-18 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Arris Group: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-01-18 05:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Stock Market News for Feb 15, 2018   [Feb-15-18 10:04AM  Zacks]
▶ Arris Group beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-14-18 05:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ ARRIS Group's Earnings Outlook   [09:40AM  Benzinga]
▶ ARRIS to Sell Taiwan Manufacturing Facility to Pegatron   [Feb-08-18 05:27AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Growth Stocks for the Long Term   [Jan-12-18 08:37PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 7 Top Picks For 2018 And Their Corresponding ETFs   [Jan-05-18 01:37PM  Benzinga]
▶ Arris Drops on Memory Margin Pressures   [Dec-15-17 01:30PM  Investopedia]

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