Intrinsic value of ARRIS International - ARRS

Previous Close

$26.22

  Intrinsic Value

$17.34

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-34%

Previous close

$26.22

 
Intrinsic value

$17.34

 
Up/down potential

-34%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARRS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  6,746
  6,901
  7,079
  7,278
  7,499
  7,741
  8,004
  8,290
  8,597
  8,927
  9,280
  9,657
  10,058
  10,484
  10,936
  11,415
  11,923
  12,459
  13,026
  13,624
  14,256
  14,922
  15,624
  16,364
  17,143
  17,963
  18,826
  19,735
  20,690
  21,696
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6,630
  6,773
  6,937
  7,121
  7,324
  7,548
  7,791
  8,054
  8,338
  8,643
  8,563
  8,911
  9,281
  9,674
  10,091
  10,534
  11,002
  11,497
  12,020
  12,572
  13,155
  13,770
  14,417
  15,100
  15,819
  16,576
  17,372
  18,211
  19,092
  20,020
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,630
  6,773
  6,937
  7,121
  7,324
  7,548
  7,791
  8,054
  8,338
  8,643
  8,563
  8,911
  9,281
  9,674
  10,091
  10,534
  11,002
  11,497
  12,020
  12,572
  13,155
  13,770
  14,417
  15,100
  15,819
  16,576
  17,372
  18,211
  19,092
  20,020
Operating income, $m
  116
  128
  142
  157
  174
  193
  213
  235
  259
  284
  717
  746
  777
  810
  845
  882
  921
  962
  1,006
  1,052
  1,101
  1,152
  1,207
  1,264
  1,324
  1,387
  1,454
  1,524
  1,598
  1,676
EBITDA, $m
  953
  975
  1,000
  1,028
  1,059
  1,093
  1,130
  1,171
  1,214
  1,261
  1,311
  1,364
  1,420
  1,481
  1,545
  1,612
  1,684
  1,760
  1,840
  1,924
  2,013
  2,107
  2,207
  2,311
  2,421
  2,537
  2,659
  2,787
  2,922
  3,064
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  119
  123
  129
  135
  143
  151
  159
  169
  179
  191
  203
  215
  229
  244
  259
  276
  293
  311
  331
  351
  373
  396
  420
  446
  473
  501
  531
  562
  595
  630
Earnings before tax, $m
  -3
  5
  13
  22
  32
  42
  54
  66
  80
  94
  514
  530
  548
  566
  586
  606
  628
  651
  675
  701
  728
  756
  786
  818
  851
  886
  923
  962
  1,003
  1,046
Tax expense, $m
  0
  1
  3
  6
  9
  11
  15
  18
  21
  25
  139
  143
  148
  153
  158
  164
  170
  176
  182
  189
  197
  204
  212
  221
  230
  239
  249
  260
  271
  282
Net income, $m
  -3
  3
  9
  16
  23
  31
  39
  48
  58
  69
  375
  387
  400
  413
  427
  442
  458
  475
  493
  512
  531
  552
  574
  597
  621
  647
  674
  702
  732
  763

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,772
  7,951
  8,155
  8,385
  8,639
  8,918
  9,222
  9,550
  9,904
  10,285
  10,691
  11,125
  11,587
  12,078
  12,599
  13,151
  13,736
  14,354
  15,007
  15,696
  16,424
  17,191
  18,000
  18,852
  19,750
  20,695
  21,689
  22,736
  23,837
  24,995
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,772
  7,951
  8,155
  8,385
  8,639
  8,918
  9,222
  9,550
  9,904
  10,285
  10,691
  11,125
  11,587
  12,078
  12,599
  13,151
  13,736
  14,354
  15,007
  15,696
  16,424
  17,191
  18,000
  18,852
  19,750
  20,695
  21,689
  22,736
  23,837
  24,995
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
Average production assets, $m
  4,318
  4,417
  4,530
  4,658
  4,799
  4,954
  5,123
  5,305
  5,502
  5,713
  5,939
  6,180
  6,437
  6,710
  6,999
  7,306
  7,630
  7,974
  8,337
  8,720
  9,124
  9,550
  9,999
  10,473
  10,971
  11,496
  12,049
  12,630
  13,242
  13,885
Working capital, $m
  -391
  -400
  -411
  -422
  -435
  -449
  -464
  -481
  -499
  -518
  -538
  -560
  -583
  -608
  -634
  -662
  -692
  -723
  -756
  -790
  -827
  -865
  -906
  -949
  -994
  -1,042
  -1,092
  -1,145
  -1,200
  -1,258
Total debt, $m
  2,284
  2,388
  2,507
  2,641
  2,790
  2,953
  3,130
  3,322
  3,529
  3,751
  3,988
  4,242
  4,511
  4,798
  5,102
  5,425
  5,766
  6,127
  6,509
  6,911
  7,336
  7,784
  8,257
  8,754
  9,278
  9,830
  10,411
  11,022
  11,665
  12,342
Total liabilities, $m
  4,539
  4,643
  4,763
  4,897
  5,045
  5,208
  5,385
  5,577
  5,784
  6,006
  6,244
  6,497
  6,767
  7,054
  7,358
  7,680
  8,022
  8,383
  8,764
  9,167
  9,592
  10,040
  10,512
  11,010
  11,534
  12,086
  12,667
  13,278
  13,921
  14,597
Total equity, $m
  3,233
  3,308
  3,393
  3,488
  3,594
  3,710
  3,836
  3,973
  4,120
  4,278
  4,448
  4,628
  4,820
  5,025
  5,241
  5,471
  5,714
  5,971
  6,243
  6,530
  6,832
  7,152
  7,488
  7,843
  8,216
  8,609
  9,023
  9,458
  9,916
  10,398
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,772
  7,951
  8,156
  8,385
  8,639
  8,918
  9,221
  9,550
  9,904
  10,284
  10,692
  11,125
  11,587
  12,079
  12,599
  13,151
  13,736
  14,354
  15,007
  15,697
  16,424
  17,192
  18,000
  18,853
  19,750
  20,695
  21,690
  22,736
  23,837
  24,995
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.710
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.900
  0.920
  0.940
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.090
  1.100
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -3
  3
  9
  16
  23
  31
  39
  48
  58
  69
  375
  387
  400
  413
  427
  442
  458
  475
  493
  512
  531
  552
  574
  597
  621
  647
  674
  702
  732
  763
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  837
  847
  858
  871
  885
  900
  917
  936
  955
  976
  594
  618
  644
  671
  700
  731
  763
  797
  834
  872
  912
  955
  1,000
  1,047
  1,097
  1,150
  1,205
  1,263
  1,324
  1,389
Funds from operations, $m
  834
  850
  867
  887
  908
  931
  957
  984
  1,013
  1,045
  969
  1,005
  1,044
  1,084
  1,127
  1,173
  1,221
  1,273
  1,327
  1,384
  1,444
  1,507
  1,574
  1,644
  1,719
  1,797
  1,879
  1,965
  2,056
  2,152
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
Cash from operations, $m
  842
  859
  878
  898
  921
  945
  972
  1,000
  1,031
  1,064
  990
  1,027
  1,067
  1,109
  1,154
  1,201
  1,251
  1,304
  1,359
  1,418
  1,480
  1,546
  1,615
  1,687
  1,764
  1,844
  1,929
  2,018
  2,112
  2,210
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -423
  -432
  -442
  -453
  -466
  -480
  -495
  -512
  -531
  -550
  -571
  -594
  -618
  -644
  -671
  -700
  -731
  -763
  -797
  -834
  -872
  -912
  -955
  -1,000
  -1,047
  -1,097
  -1,150
  -1,205
  -1,263
  -1,324
New CAPEX, $m
  -83
  -99
  -114
  -127
  -141
  -155
  -169
  -183
  -197
  -211
  -226
  -241
  -257
  -273
  -289
  -307
  -325
  -343
  -363
  -383
  -404
  -426
  -449
  -473
  -499
  -525
  -553
  -581
  -612
  -643
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -506
  -531
  -556
  -580
  -607
  -635
  -664
  -695
  -728
  -761
  -797
  -835
  -875
  -917
  -960
  -1,007
  -1,056
  -1,106
  -1,160
  -1,217
  -1,276
  -1,338
  -1,404
  -1,473
  -1,546
  -1,622
  -1,703
  -1,786
  -1,875
  -1,967
Free cash flow, $m
  335
  328
  322
  318
  314
  310
  308
  306
  304
  303
  193
  192
  192
  192
  193
  194
  196
  197
  199
  202
  204
  207
  210
  214
  218
  222
  227
  232
  237
  243
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  84
  104
  119
  134
  148
  163
  177
  192
  207
  222
  237
  253
  270
  287
  304
  322
  341
  361
  381
  403
  425
  448
  472
  498
  524
  552
  581
  611
  643
  676
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  67
  71
  76
  80
  83
  85
  87
  88
  89
  90
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  151
  175
  195
  214
  231
  248
  264
  280
  296
  312
  237
  253
  270
  287
  304
  322
  341
  361
  381
  403
  425
  448
  472
  498
  524
  552
  581
  611
  643
  676
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  486
  503
  517
  531
  545
  559
  572
  586
  600
  614
  430
  446
  462
  479
  497
  517
  537
  558
  581
  604
  629
  655
  683
  712
  742
  774
  808
  843
  880
  919
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -67
  -74
  -85
  -95
  -106
  -116
  -126
  -137
  -147
  -158
  -169
  -181
  -192
  -204
  -217
  -230
  -243
  -257
  -272
  -287
  -303
  -319
  -336
  -354
  -373
  -393
  -414
  -435
  -458
  -482
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
Cash available for distribution, $m
  419
  429
  432
  436
  439
  442
  446
  449
  453
  456
  261
  265
  270
  275
  281
  287
  294
  301
  309
  317
  326
  336
  346
  357
  369
  381
  394
  407
  422
  437
Discount rate, %
  6.00
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  395
  380
  357
  333
  309
  284
  259
  235
  211
  187
  94
  82
  71
  61
  52
  44
  36
  30
  24
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.7
  97.3
  95.9
  94.4
  93.0
  91.6
  90.2
  88.9
  87.6
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4
  86.4

ARRIS International plc is a media entertainment and data communications solutions provider. The Company operates in two segments: Customer Premises Equipment (CPE), and Network & Cloud (N&C). The Company enables service providers, including cable, telephone, and digital broadcast satellite operators, and media programmers to deliver media, voice and Internet Protocol (IP) data services to their subscribers. It is engaged in offering set-tops, digital video and IP television (IPTV) distribution systems, broadband access infrastructure platforms, and associated data and voice CPE, which it also sells directly to consumers through retail channels. Its solutions are complemented by an array of services, including technical support, repair and refurbishment, and system design and integration. The CPE segment consists of CPE Products-Video and CPE Products-Broadband. The N&C segment consists of Infrastructure Products, Cloud Software and Global Services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ARRIS International (ARRS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 276.9
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 42.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -19.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 13
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 68.4%
Total Debt to Equity 71%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital 0.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Equity 0.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
EBITDA Margin 8.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Operating Margin 1.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Net Profit Margin 0.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Effective Tax Rate 62.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

ARRS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARRS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6614 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ARRIS International. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of ARRIS International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARRS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6%, whose default value for ARRS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ARRIS International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ARRIS International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARRS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARRS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for ARRIS International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ARRIS International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARRS stock is equal to 1.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARRS are equal to 64%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ARRIS International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARRS is equal to -5.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3169 million for ARRIS International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 187 million for ARRIS International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ARRIS International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ARRIS to Present at NASDAQ 38th Investor Conference   [Jun-01-18 10:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ARRIS to Present at Jefferies 2018 Technology Conference   [May-03-18 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Arris Group: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-01-18 05:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Stock Market News for Feb 15, 2018   [Feb-15-18 10:04AM  Zacks]
▶ Arris Group beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-14-18 05:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ ARRIS Group's Earnings Outlook   [09:40AM  Benzinga]
▶ ARRIS to Sell Taiwan Manufacturing Facility to Pegatron   [Feb-08-18 05:27AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Growth Stocks for the Long Term   [Jan-12-18 08:37PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 7 Top Picks For 2018 And Their Corresponding ETFs   [Jan-05-18 01:37PM  Benzinga]
▶ Arris Drops on Memory Margin Pressures   [Dec-15-17 01:30PM  Investopedia]
▶ Arris Group beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-01-17 05:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Tech Companies Gurus Are Buying   [Sep-25-17 11:47AM  GuruFocus.com]
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