Intrinsic value of Arrow Electronics, Inc. - ARW

Previous Close

$68.02

  Intrinsic Value

$124.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+82%

Previous close

$68.02

 
Intrinsic value

$124.09

 
Up/down potential

+82%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  31,161
  32,719
  34,355
  36,073
  37,876
  39,770
  41,759
  43,846
  46,039
  48,341
  50,758
  53,296
  55,960
  58,758
  61,696
  64,781
  68,020
  71,421
  74,992
  78,742
  82,679
  86,813
  91,154
  95,711
  100,497
  105,522
  110,798
  116,338
  122,155
  128,262
Variable operating expenses, $m
  29,120
  30,561
  32,075
  33,663
  35,331
  37,083
  38,922
  40,853
  42,881
  45,010
  46,946
  49,293
  51,758
  54,346
  57,063
  59,916
  62,912
  66,058
  69,360
  72,828
  76,470
  80,293
  84,308
  88,523
  92,950
  97,597
  102,477
  107,601
  112,981
  118,630
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  806
  824
  842
  861
  880
  899
  919
  939
  960
  981
  1,002
  1,024
  1,047
  1,070
  1,094
  1,118
  1,142
  1,167
  1,193
  1,219
  1,246
  1,273
  1,302
  1,330
  1,359
  1,389
  1,420
  1,451
  1,483
  1,516
Total operating expenses, $m
  29,926
  31,385
  32,917
  34,524
  36,211
  37,982
  39,841
  41,792
  43,841
  45,991
  47,948
  50,317
  52,805
  55,416
  58,157
  61,034
  64,054
  67,225
  70,553
  74,047
  77,716
  81,566
  85,610
  89,853
  94,309
  98,986
  103,897
  109,052
  114,464
  120,146
Operating income, $m
  1,234
  1,333
  1,438
  1,549
  1,665
  1,788
  1,917
  2,054
  2,198
  2,350
  2,809
  2,978
  3,156
  3,343
  3,540
  3,747
  3,966
  4,196
  4,439
  4,694
  4,963
  5,246
  5,544
  5,858
  6,188
  6,535
  6,901
  7,286
  7,691
  8,117
EBITDA, $m
  1,653
  1,758
  1,869
  1,986
  2,109
  2,240
  2,377
  2,521
  2,674
  2,834
  3,003
  3,182
  3,369
  3,567
  3,775
  3,995
  4,226
  4,469
  4,725
  4,995
  5,279
  5,578
  5,892
  6,223
  6,572
  6,938
  7,324
  7,730
  8,157
  8,607
Interest expense (income), $m
  142
  220
  259
  300
  344
  389
  437
  487
  540
  595
  653
  714
  778
  845
  915
  989
  1,067
  1,149
  1,234
  1,324
  1,419
  1,518
  1,622
  1,732
  1,847
  1,967
  2,094
  2,227
  2,366
  2,513
  2,667
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,015
  1,074
  1,138
  1,205
  1,276
  1,351
  1,431
  1,514
  1,603
  1,697
  2,096
  2,200
  2,311
  2,427
  2,550
  2,680
  2,817
  2,962
  3,114
  3,275
  3,445
  3,624
  3,812
  4,011
  4,221
  4,441
  4,674
  4,919
  5,178
  5,450
Tax expense, $m
  274
  290
  307
  325
  344
  365
  386
  409
  433
  458
  566
  594
  624
  655
  689
  724
  761
  800
  841
  884
  930
  978
  1,029
  1,083
  1,140
  1,199
  1,262
  1,328
  1,398
  1,471
Net income, $m
  741
  784
  831
  880
  931
  986
  1,044
  1,106
  1,170
  1,239
  1,530
  1,606
  1,687
  1,772
  1,862
  1,957
  2,057
  2,162
  2,273
  2,391
  2,515
  2,645
  2,783
  2,928
  3,081
  3,242
  3,412
  3,591
  3,780
  3,978

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  18,670
  19,604
  20,584
  21,613
  22,694
  23,829
  25,020
  26,271
  27,585
  28,964
  30,412
  31,933
  33,529
  35,206
  36,966
  38,814
  40,755
  42,793
  44,932
  47,179
  49,538
  52,015
  54,616
  57,346
  60,214
  63,225
  66,386
  69,705
  73,190
  76,850
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  18,670
  19,604
  20,584
  21,613
  22,694
  23,829
  25,020
  26,271
  27,585
  28,964
  30,412
  31,933
  33,529
  35,206
  36,966
  38,814
  40,755
  42,793
  44,932
  47,179
  49,538
  52,015
  54,616
  57,346
  60,214
  63,225
  66,386
  69,705
  73,190
  76,850
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
  1.669
Average production assets, $m
  2,368
  2,487
  2,611
  2,742
  2,879
  3,023
  3,174
  3,332
  3,499
  3,674
  3,858
  4,050
  4,253
  4,466
  4,689
  4,923
  5,170
  5,428
  5,699
  5,984
  6,284
  6,598
  6,928
  7,274
  7,638
  8,020
  8,421
  8,842
  9,284
  9,748
Working capital, $m
  4,768
  5,006
  5,256
  5,519
  5,795
  6,085
  6,389
  6,709
  7,044
  7,396
  7,766
  8,154
  8,562
  8,990
  9,440
  9,912
  10,407
  10,927
  11,474
  12,048
  12,650
  13,282
  13,947
  14,644
  15,376
  16,145
  16,952
  17,800
  18,690
  19,624
Total debt, $m
  4,114
  4,768
  5,455
  6,177
  6,934
  7,730
  8,565
  9,442
  10,363
  11,330
  12,345
  13,411
  14,530
  15,705
  16,939
  18,235
  19,595
  21,024
  22,524
  24,098
  25,752
  27,488
  29,312
  31,226
  33,236
  35,346
  37,562
  39,889
  42,332
  44,898
Total liabilities, $m
  13,088
  13,742
  14,429
  15,151
  15,908
  16,704
  17,539
  18,416
  19,337
  20,304
  21,319
  22,385
  23,504
  24,679
  25,913
  27,209
  28,569
  29,998
  31,498
  33,073
  34,726
  36,462
  38,286
  40,200
  42,210
  44,320
  46,536
  48,863
  51,306
  53,872
Total equity, $m
  5,582
  5,862
  6,155
  6,462
  6,785
  7,125
  7,481
  7,855
  8,248
  8,660
  9,093
  9,548
  10,025
  10,527
  11,053
  11,605
  12,186
  12,795
  13,435
  14,107
  14,812
  15,552
  16,330
  17,147
  18,004
  18,904
  19,849
  20,842
  21,884
  22,978
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  18,670
  19,604
  20,584
  21,613
  22,693
  23,829
  25,020
  26,271
  27,585
  28,964
  30,412
  31,933
  33,529
  35,206
  36,966
  38,814
  40,755
  42,793
  44,933
  47,180
  49,538
  52,014
  54,616
  57,347
  60,214
  63,224
  66,385
  69,705
  73,190
  76,850
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.740
  0.810
  0.890
  0.960
  1.020
  1.080
  1.140
  1.200
  1.260
  1.310
  1.360
  1.400
  1.450
  1.490
  1.530
  1.570
  1.610
  1.640
  1.680
  1.710
  1.740
  1.770
  1.790
  1.820
  1.850
  1.870
  1.890
  1.910
  1.930
  1.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  741
  784
  831
  880
  931
  986
  1,044
  1,106
  1,170
  1,239
  1,530
  1,606
  1,687
  1,772
  1,862
  1,957
  2,057
  2,162
  2,273
  2,391
  2,515
  2,645
  2,783
  2,928
  3,081
  3,242
  3,412
  3,591
  3,780
  3,978
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  419
  425
  431
  437
  444
  452
  459
  467
  476
  484
  194
  204
  214
  224
  236
  247
  260
  273
  286
  301
  316
  332
  348
  366
  384
  403
  423
  444
  467
  490
Funds from operations, $m
  1,159
  1,209
  1,261
  1,317
  1,376
  1,438
  1,503
  1,573
  1,646
  1,723
  1,724
  1,810
  1,901
  1,996
  2,097
  2,204
  2,316
  2,435
  2,560
  2,692
  2,830
  2,977
  3,131
  3,294
  3,465
  3,645
  3,835
  4,035
  4,246
  4,468
Change in working capital, $m
  227
  238
  250
  263
  276
  290
  304
  319
  335
  352
  370
  388
  408
  428
  450
  472
  496
  520
  546
  574
  602
  632
  664
  697
  732
  769
  807
  848
  890
  934
Cash from operations, $m
  932
  970
  1,011
  1,054
  1,100
  1,148
  1,199
  1,253
  1,310
  1,371
  1,354
  1,421
  1,493
  1,568
  1,648
  1,732
  1,821
  1,915
  2,013
  2,118
  2,228
  2,344
  2,467
  2,596
  2,733
  2,876
  3,028
  3,188
  3,356
  3,534
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -236
  -247
  -260
  -273
  -286
  -301
  -316
  -332
  -348
  -366
  -384
  -403
  -423
  -444
  -467
New CAPEX, $m
  -98
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -285
  -299
  -314
  -330
  -346
  -364
  -382
  -401
  -421
  -442
  -464
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -212
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -318
  -334
  -351
  -369
  -387
  -407
  -427
  -447
  -470
  -493
  -518
  -544
  -571
  -600
  -630
  -662
  -694
  -730
  -766
  -804
  -844
  -886
  -931
Free cash flow, $m
  720
  733
  762
  792
  825
  860
  896
  935
  976
  1,020
  986
  1,035
  1,087
  1,142
  1,200
  1,262
  1,327
  1,396
  1,469
  1,547
  1,628
  1,714
  1,806
  1,902
  2,003
  2,111
  2,224
  2,344
  2,470
  2,603
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  628
  654
  687
  721
  758
  795
  835
  877
  921
  967
  1,015
  1,066
  1,119
  1,175
  1,234
  1,296
  1,360
  1,428
  1,500
  1,575
  1,654
  1,736
  1,823
  1,914
  2,010
  2,110
  2,216
  2,327
  2,443
  2,565
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  628
  654
  687
  721
  758
  795
  835
  877
  921
  967
  1,015
  1,066
  1,119
  1,175
  1,234
  1,296
  1,360
  1,428
  1,500
  1,575
  1,654
  1,736
  1,823
  1,914
  2,010
  2,110
  2,216
  2,327
  2,443
  2,565
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,348
  1,387
  1,449
  1,514
  1,583
  1,655
  1,731
  1,812
  1,897
  1,987
  2,001
  2,101
  2,206
  2,317
  2,434
  2,558
  2,688
  2,825
  2,969
  3,121
  3,282
  3,451
  3,629
  3,816
  4,013
  4,221
  4,440
  4,670
  4,913
  5,168
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -257
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -323
  -339
  -356
  -374
  -393
  -412
  -433
  -455
  -477
  -501
  -526
  -553
  -580
  -609
  -640
  -672
  -705
  -741
  -778
  -817
  -857
  -900
  -945
  -992
  -1,042
  -1,094
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,091
  1,108
  1,156
  1,206
  1,259
  1,316
  1,375
  1,438
  1,504
  1,575
  1,568
  1,646
  1,729
  1,816
  1,908
  2,005
  2,107
  2,215
  2,329
  2,450
  2,576
  2,710
  2,851
  3,000
  3,156
  3,321
  3,495
  3,678
  3,871
  4,074
Discount rate, %
  7.30
  7.67
  8.05
  8.45
  8.87
  9.32
  9.78
  10.27
  10.79
  11.32
  11.89
  12.49
  13.11
  13.77
  14.45
  15.18
  15.93
  16.73
  17.57
  18.45
  19.37
  20.34
  21.35
  22.42
  23.54
  24.72
  25.96
  27.25
  28.62
  30.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,017
  956
  916
  872
  823
  771
  716
  658
  598
  539
  456
  401
  348
  298
  252
  209
  171
  137
  108
  83
  63
  46
  33
  23
  16
  11
  7
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Arrow Electronics, Inc. is a provider of products, services and solutions to industrial and commercial users of electronic components and enterprise computing solutions. The Company has a portfolio of product offerings available from various electronic components and enterprise computing solutions suppliers. The Company's segments include the global components business; the global enterprise computing solutions (ECS) business, and corporate business segment. It distributes electronic components to original equipment manufacturers and contract manufacturers through its global components business segment. Through global ECS business segment, it provides enterprise computing solutions to value-added resellers. The Global components segment markets and distributes electronic components and provides a range of value-added capabilities. Global ECS' portfolio of computing solutions includes datacenter, cloud, security, and analytics solutions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.6
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17
Price to Free Cash Flow 31.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 6.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 61.1%
Total Debt to Equity 63.2%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 7.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Return On Equity 12.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 13.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
EBITDA Margin 4.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Operating Margin 3.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 2.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Effective Tax Rate 26.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

ARW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $29677 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Arrow Electronics, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Arrow Electronics, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.3%, whose default value for ARW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Arrow Electronics, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Arrow Electronics, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $789 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.3% for Arrow Electronics, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Arrow Electronics, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARW are equal to 7.6%.

Life of production assets of 19.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Arrow Electronics, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARW is equal to 15.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5324.99 million for Arrow Electronics, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 84.914 million for Arrow Electronics, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Arrow Electronics, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.8 billion.

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