Intrinsic value of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - ARWR

Previous Close

$17.77

  Intrinsic Value

$0.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$17.77

 
Intrinsic value

$0.22

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARWR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  26
  40
  59
  86
  121
  166
  223
  293
  378
  477
  592
  724
  873
  1,038
  1,221
  1,420
  1,636
  1,868
  2,115
  2,378
  2,656
  2,949
  3,256
  3,577
  3,913
  4,263
  4,628
  5,007
  5,402
  5,812
Variable operating expenses, $m
  55
  84
  126
  182
  256
  351
  471
  618
  794
  1,003
  1,244
  1,521
  1,833
  2,181
  2,564
  2,983
  3,436
  3,923
  4,443
  4,995
  5,579
  6,194
  6,839
  7,514
  8,219
  8,955
  9,721
  10,518
  11,346
  12,208
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  55
  84
  126
  182
  256
  351
  471
  618
  794
  1,003
  1,244
  1,521
  1,833
  2,181
  2,564
  2,983
  3,436
  3,923
  4,443
  4,995
  5,579
  6,194
  6,839
  7,514
  8,219
  8,955
  9,721
  10,518
  11,346
  12,208
Operating income, $m
  -30
  -45
  -66
  -96
  -135
  -185
  -247
  -324
  -417
  -526
  -652
  -797
  -960
  -1,143
  -1,343
  -1,563
  -1,800
  -2,055
  -2,328
  -2,617
  -2,923
  -3,245
  -3,583
  -3,937
  -4,306
  -4,692
  -5,093
  -5,510
  -5,945
  -6,396
EBITDA, $m
  -23
  -35
  -53
  -76
  -108
  -148
  -199
  -261
  -336
  -425
  -527
  -645
  -777
  -925
  -1,087
  -1,265
  -1,457
  -1,663
  -1,884
  -2,118
  -2,365
  -2,626
  -2,899
  -3,186
  -3,485
  -3,796
  -4,121
  -4,459
  -4,810
  -5,175
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  15
  19
  24
  30
  37
  45
  54
  63
  74
  85
  97
  110
  124
  139
  154
  170
  187
  205
  223
  243
  262
  283
Earnings before tax, $m
  -30
  -46
  -68
  -98
  -138
  -190
  -255
  -335
  -432
  -545
  -676
  -827
  -998
  -1,188
  -1,397
  -1,626
  -1,874
  -2,141
  -2,425
  -2,728
  -3,047
  -3,384
  -3,737
  -4,107
  -4,494
  -4,897
  -5,316
  -5,753
  -6,207
  -6,679
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -30
  -46
  -68
  -98
  -138
  -190
  -255
  -335
  -432
  -545
  -676
  -827
  -998
  -1,188
  -1,397
  -1,626
  -1,874
  -2,141
  -2,425
  -2,728
  -3,047
  -3,384
  -3,737
  -4,107
  -4,494
  -4,897
  -5,316
  -5,753
  -6,207
  -6,679

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  76
  117
  174
  253
  357
  491
  659
  865
  1,114
  1,407
  1,747
  2,136
  2,574
  3,063
  3,601
  4,189
  4,825
  5,509
  6,239
  7,015
  7,835
  8,698
  9,604
  10,552
  11,543
  12,576
  13,651
  14,771
  15,934
  17,144
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  76
  117
  174
  253
  357
  491
  659
  865
  1,114
  1,407
  1,747
  2,136
  2,574
  3,063
  3,601
  4,189
  4,825
  5,509
  6,239
  7,015
  7,835
  8,698
  9,604
  10,552
  11,543
  12,576
  13,651
  14,771
  15,934
  17,144
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.342
  0.342
  0.339
  0.340
  0.339
  0.338
  0.338
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
Average production assets, $m
  39
  61
  91
  132
  186
  255
  343
  450
  579
  731
  908
  1,110
  1,338
  1,592
  1,871
  2,177
  2,508
  2,863
  3,243
  3,646
  4,072
  4,520
  4,991
  5,484
  5,999
  6,535
  7,094
  7,676
  8,281
  8,909
Working capital, $m
  -16
  -24
  -37
  -53
  -75
  -103
  -138
  -182
  -234
  -295
  -367
  -448
  -540
  -643
  -756
  -879
  -1,013
  -1,156
  -1,309
  -1,472
  -1,644
  -1,825
  -2,015
  -2,214
  -2,422
  -2,639
  -2,865
  -3,099
  -3,344
  -3,597
Total debt, $m
  12
  25
  44
  70
  105
  149
  204
  272
  354
  451
  563
  691
  836
  997
  1,175
  1,369
  1,579
  1,805
  2,046
  2,302
  2,572
  2,857
  3,156
  3,469
  3,796
  4,137
  4,492
  4,861
  5,245
  5,644
Total liabilities, $m
  25
  39
  58
  84
  118
  162
  218
  286
  368
  464
  576
  705
  849
  1,011
  1,188
  1,382
  1,592
  1,818
  2,059
  2,315
  2,585
  2,870
  3,169
  3,482
  3,809
  4,150
  4,505
  4,874
  5,258
  5,657
Total equity, $m
  51
  78
  117
  170
  239
  329
  442
  580
  746
  942
  1,170
  1,431
  1,725
  2,052
  2,413
  2,807
  3,233
  3,691
  4,180
  4,700
  5,249
  5,828
  6,435
  7,070
  7,734
  8,426
  9,146
  9,896
  10,676
  11,486
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  76
  117
  175
  254
  357
  491
  660
  866
  1,114
  1,406
  1,746
  2,136
  2,574
  3,063
  3,601
  4,189
  4,825
  5,509
  6,239
  7,015
  7,834
  8,698
  9,604
  10,552
  11,543
  12,576
  13,651
  14,770
  15,934
  17,143
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.230
  0.320
  0.380
  0.410
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -30
  -46
  -68
  -98
  -138
  -190
  -255
  -335
  -432
  -545
  -676
  -827
  -998
  -1,188
  -1,397
  -1,626
  -1,874
  -2,141
  -2,425
  -2,728
  -3,047
  -3,384
  -3,737
  -4,107
  -4,494
  -4,897
  -5,316
  -5,753
  -6,207
  -6,679
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  10
  14
  19
  27
  36
  48
  63
  81
  102
  124
  152
  183
  218
  256
  298
  344
  392
  444
  499
  558
  619
  684
  751
  822
  895
  972
  1,052
  1,134
  1,220
Funds from operations, $m
  -23
  -36
  -54
  -79
  -112
  -154
  -207
  -272
  -351
  -444
  -552
  -675
  -814
  -970
  -1,141
  -1,328
  -1,531
  -1,748
  -1,981
  -2,228
  -2,489
  -2,765
  -3,054
  -3,356
  -3,672
  -4,001
  -4,344
  -4,701
  -5,073
  -5,459
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -17
  -22
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -52
  -61
  -71
  -82
  -92
  -103
  -113
  -123
  -134
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -254
Cash from operations, $m
  -17
  -27
  -42
  -62
  -90
  -126
  -172
  -229
  -299
  -382
  -480
  -593
  -722
  -867
  -1,028
  -1,205
  -1,397
  -1,605
  -1,828
  -2,065
  -2,317
  -2,583
  -2,863
  -3,157
  -3,464
  -3,785
  -4,119
  -4,467
  -4,829
  -5,205
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -5
  -8
  -12
  -18
  -25
  -35
  -47
  -62
  -79
  -100
  -124
  -152
  -183
  -218
  -256
  -298
  -344
  -392
  -444
  -499
  -558
  -619
  -684
  -751
  -822
  -895
  -972
  -1,052
  -1,134
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -21
  -30
  -41
  -54
  -70
  -87
  -107
  -129
  -152
  -177
  -202
  -228
  -254
  -280
  -305
  -331
  -355
  -379
  -403
  -426
  -449
  -471
  -493
  -515
  -537
  -559
  -582
  -605
  -629
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -18
  -26
  -38
  -53
  -72
  -95
  -122
  -154
  -191
  -231
  -277
  -326
  -380
  -437
  -498
  -561
  -629
  -699
  -771
  -847
  -925
  -1,007
  -1,090
  -1,177
  -1,266
  -1,359
  -1,454
  -1,554
  -1,657
  -1,763
Free cash flow, $m
  -35
  -54
  -80
  -116
  -162
  -221
  -294
  -383
  -489
  -614
  -757
  -920
  -1,102
  -1,304
  -1,526
  -1,766
  -2,026
  -2,304
  -2,599
  -2,913
  -3,243
  -3,590
  -3,953
  -4,333
  -4,730
  -5,143
  -5,573
  -6,020
  -6,485
  -6,968
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  9
  14
  19
  26
  34
  44
  55
  68
  82
  97
  112
  128
  145
  161
  178
  194
  210
  226
  241
  256
  271
  285
  299
  313
  327
  341
  355
  369
  384
  399
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  49
  73
  107
  151
  208
  280
  368
  474
  598
  742
  904
  1,088
  1,291
  1,515
  1,758
  2,020
  2,300
  2,599
  2,914
  3,247
  3,596
  3,962
  4,344
  4,743
  5,157
  5,589
  6,037
  6,503
  6,987
  7,489
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  58
  87
  126
  177
  242
  324
  423
  542
  680
  839
  1,016
  1,216
  1,436
  1,676
  1,936
  2,214
  2,510
  2,825
  3,155
  3,503
  3,867
  4,247
  4,643
  5,056
  5,484
  5,930
  6,392
  6,872
  7,371
  7,888
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  23
  33
  45
  61
  81
  103
  129
  159
  190
  224
  259
  296
  334
  372
  410
  448
  484
  521
  556
  590
  624
  657
  690
  722
  754
  786
  819
  852
  886
  921
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -49
  -73
  -107
  -151
  -208
  -280
  -368
  -474
  -598
  -742
  -904
  -1,088
  -1,291
  -1,515
  -1,758
  -2,020
  -2,300
  -2,599
  -2,914
  -3,247
  -3,596
  -3,962
  -4,344
  -4,743
  -5,157
  -5,589
  -6,037
  -6,503
  -6,987
  -7,489
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  64
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  38
  -40
  -61
  -90
  -128
  -177
  -239
  -315
  -408
  -517
  -645
  -792
  -958
  -1,143
  -1,348
  -1,573
  -1,816
  -2,078
  -2,358
  -2,657
  -2,972
  -3,305
  -3,654
  -4,021
  -4,403
  -4,802
  -5,218
  -5,651
  -6,101
  -6,569
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  37
  -37
  -53
  -74
  -99
  -128
  -161
  -197
  -234
  -271
  -306
  -338
  -364
  -384
  -396
  -400
  -395
  -383
  -363
  -338
  -307
  -274
  -240
  -205
  -171
  -140
  -112
  -87
  -67
  -49
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  86.7
  75.7
  66.6
  59.0
  52.6
  47.1
  42.3
  38.2
  34.7
  31.5
  28.8
  26.3
  24.1
  22.2
  20.4
  18.9
  17.4
  16.1
  15.0
  13.9
  12.9
  12.0
  11.2
  10.4
  9.7
  9.0
  8.4
  7.9
  7.3
  6.9

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc., formerly Arrowhead Research Corporation, develops medicines that treat intractable diseases by silencing the genes that cause them. Using a portfolio of ribonucleic acid (RNA) chemistries and modes of delivery, the Company's therapies trigger the RNA interference mechanism to induce knockdown of target genes. The Company is focused on developing drugs for diseases with a genetic basis, characterized by the overproduction of one or more proteins. The Company's preclinical pipeline of RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics includes both subcutaneously administered liver-targeted candidates and extra-hepatic candidates. The Company's pre-clinical-stage drug candidates include ARO-HBV, ARO-AAT, ARO-LPA, ARO-AMG1, ARO-F12 and ARO-HIF2. ARO-HBV is an RNAi therapeutic candidate for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B infection. ARO-AAT is a therapeutic candidate for the treatment of liver disease associated with Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -39.1
Price to Sales 42.9
Price to Book 16.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -55.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -41.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 3.7%
Total Debt to Equity 3.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -29.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -50.3%
Return On Total Capital -37.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -60.4%
Return On Equity -38.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -61.5%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -93.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.2%
Operating Margin -119.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -109.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.6%
Net Profit Margin -109.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ARWR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARWR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $16 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARWR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ARWR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARWR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 218.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARWR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARWR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARWR are equal to 153.3%.

Life of production assets of 7.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARWR is equal to -61.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $95.796189 million for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 93.985 million for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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