Intrinsic value of Ardmore Shipping - ASC

Previous Close

$6.21

  Intrinsic Value

$2.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-52%

Previous close

$6.21

 
Intrinsic value

$2.96

 
Up/down potential

-52%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ASC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.20
  17.78
  16.50
  15.35
  14.32
  13.38
  12.55
  11.79
  11.11
  10.50
  9.95
  9.46
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
Revenue, $m
  234
  275
  320
  370
  423
  479
  539
  603
  670
  740
  814
  891
  971
  1,055
  1,142
  1,232
  1,326
  1,424
  1,525
  1,631
  1,741
  1,855
  1,973
  2,097
  2,226
  2,360
  2,499
  2,645
  2,797
  2,955
Variable operating expenses, $m
  202
  238
  278
  321
  366
  415
  468
  523
  581
  642
  706
  772
  842
  914
  990
  1,068
  1,150
  1,235
  1,323
  1,414
  1,509
  1,608
  1,711
  1,818
  1,930
  2,046
  2,167
  2,293
  2,425
  2,562
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  202
  238
  278
  321
  366
  415
  468
  523
  581
  642
  706
  772
  842
  914
  990
  1,068
  1,150
  1,235
  1,323
  1,414
  1,509
  1,608
  1,711
  1,818
  1,930
  2,046
  2,167
  2,293
  2,425
  2,562
Operating income, $m
  31
  37
  43
  49
  56
  64
  72
  80
  89
  98
  108
  118
  129
  140
  152
  164
  176
  189
  203
  217
  232
  247
  262
  279
  296
  314
  332
  352
  372
  393
EBITDA, $m
  72
  85
  99
  114
  130
  148
  166
  186
  206
  228
  251
  275
  299
  325
  352
  380
  409
  439
  470
  503
  537
  572
  608
  646
  686
  727
  770
  815
  862
  911
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  24
  29
  34
  39
  45
  52
  59
  66
  74
  82
  91
  100
  109
  119
  129
  140
  151
  162
  174
  186
  199
  213
  227
  241
  256
  272
  288
  305
  323
  342
Earnings before tax, $m
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
Tax expense, $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
Net income, $m
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  981
  1,156
  1,347
  1,553
  1,776
  2,013
  2,266
  2,533
  2,815
  3,110
  3,420
  3,743
  4,080
  4,432
  4,797
  5,177
  5,572
  5,983
  6,410
  6,853
  7,314
  7,793
  8,292
  8,811
  9,351
  9,914
  10,501
  11,112
  11,751
  12,417
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  981
  1,156
  1,347
  1,553
  1,776
  2,013
  2,266
  2,533
  2,815
  3,110
  3,420
  3,743
  4,080
  4,432
  4,797
  5,177
  5,572
  5,983
  6,410
  6,853
  7,314
  7,793
  8,292
  8,811
  9,351
  9,914
  10,501
  11,112
  11,751
  12,417
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.239
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
Average production assets, $m
  921
  1,085
  1,264
  1,458
  1,666
  1,889
  2,126
  2,377
  2,641
  2,919
  3,209
  3,513
  3,829
  4,159
  4,502
  4,858
  5,229
  5,615
  6,015
  6,431
  6,864
  7,313
  7,781
  8,268
  8,775
  9,304
  9,854
  10,428
  11,027
  11,652
Working capital, $m
  32
  38
  44
  51
  58
  66
  74
  83
  92
  101
  112
  122
  133
  144
  156
  169
  182
  195
  209
  223
  238
  254
  270
  287
  305
  323
  342
  362
  383
  405
Total debt, $m
  532
  626
  729
  840
  959
  1,087
  1,223
  1,367
  1,518
  1,677
  1,844
  2,018
  2,199
  2,388
  2,585
  2,789
  3,002
  3,223
  3,452
  3,691
  3,939
  4,197
  4,465
  4,744
  5,035
  5,338
  5,654
  5,983
  6,326
  6,684
Total liabilities, $m
  528
  622
  724
  836
  955
  1,083
  1,219
  1,363
  1,514
  1,673
  1,840
  2,014
  2,195
  2,384
  2,581
  2,785
  2,998
  3,219
  3,448
  3,687
  3,935
  4,193
  4,461
  4,740
  5,031
  5,334
  5,649
  5,978
  6,322
  6,680
Total equity, $m
  453
  534
  622
  718
  820
  930
  1,047
  1,170
  1,300
  1,437
  1,580
  1,729
  1,885
  2,047
  2,216
  2,392
  2,574
  2,764
  2,961
  3,166
  3,379
  3,600
  3,831
  4,071
  4,320
  4,580
  4,851
  5,134
  5,429
  5,737
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  981
  1,156
  1,346
  1,554
  1,775
  2,013
  2,266
  2,533
  2,814
  3,110
  3,420
  3,743
  4,080
  4,431
  4,797
  5,177
  5,572
  5,983
  6,409
  6,853
  7,314
  7,793
  8,292
  8,811
  9,351
  9,914
  10,500
  11,112
  11,751
  12,417
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  41
  48
  56
  65
  74
  84
  95
  106
  117
  130
  143
  156
  170
  185
  200
  216
  232
  250
  267
  286
  305
  325
  346
  367
  390
  413
  438
  463
  490
  518
Funds from operations, $m
  46
  54
  63
  72
  82
  93
  104
  116
  129
  142
  156
  170
  185
  201
  217
  234
  251
  269
  288
  308
  329
  350
  372
  395
  419
  444
  470
  497
  526
  555
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  41
  48
  56
  65
  75
  85
  96
  107
  119
  132
  145
  159
  174
  189
  205
  221
  238
  256
  274
  294
  314
  334
  356
  378
  401
  426
  451
  477
  505
  534
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -41
  -48
  -56
  -65
  -74
  -84
  -95
  -106
  -117
  -130
  -143
  -156
  -170
  -185
  -200
  -216
  -232
  -250
  -267
  -286
  -305
  -325
  -346
  -367
  -390
  -413
  -438
  -463
  -490
New CAPEX, $m
  -148
  -164
  -179
  -194
  -209
  -223
  -237
  -251
  -264
  -277
  -290
  -303
  -316
  -330
  -343
  -357
  -371
  -385
  -400
  -416
  -433
  -450
  -468
  -487
  -507
  -528
  -551
  -574
  -599
  -625
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -182
  -205
  -227
  -250
  -274
  -297
  -321
  -346
  -370
  -394
  -420
  -446
  -472
  -500
  -528
  -557
  -587
  -617
  -650
  -683
  -719
  -755
  -793
  -833
  -874
  -918
  -964
  -1,012
  -1,062
  -1,115
Free cash flow, $m
  -142
  -156
  -171
  -185
  -199
  -212
  -225
  -238
  -250
  -263
  -275
  -287
  -299
  -311
  -323
  -336
  -348
  -362
  -375
  -390
  -405
  -421
  -437
  -455
  -473
  -493
  -513
  -535
  -557
  -582
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  85
  94
  103
  111
  120
  128
  136
  144
  151
  159
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  204
  213
  221
  230
  239
  248
  258
  268
  279
  291
  303
  316
  329
  343
  358
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  67
  75
  82
  88
  95
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  152
  158
  164
  170
  176
  183
  189
  197
  204
  212
  221
  229
  239
  249
  259
  270
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  152
  169
  185
  199
  215
  229
  243
  257
  270
  284
  297
  310
  322
  336
  349
  362
  377
  391
  406
  422
  437
  455
  472
  491
  512
  532
  555
  578
  602
  628
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -72
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -197
  -205
  -213
  -221
  -230
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -283
  -295
  -308
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -62
  -68
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -180
  -188
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -230
  -239
  -250
  -261
Discount rate, %
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -56
  -57
  -56
  -54
  -52
  -48
  -45
  -40
  -36
  -31
  -27
  -23
  -19
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  79.8
  64.6
  53.0
  44.1
  37.1
  31.5
  27.1
  23.4
  20.5
  18.0
  15.9
  14.2
  12.7
  11.5
  10.4
  9.4
  8.6
  7.8
  7.2
  6.6
  6.1
  5.6
  5.2
  4.8
  4.5
  4.1
  3.9
  3.6
  3.4
  3.1

Ardmore Shipping Corporation provides seaborne transportation of petroleum products and chemicals to national oil companies, oil and chemical traders, and chemical companies, with its fleet of mid-size product and chemical tankers. The Company's segment relates to the operations of its vessels. The Company's fleet consists of over 20 double-hulled product and chemical tankers, all of which are in operation. The Company's vessels include Ardmore Seavaliant, Ardmore Seaventure, Ardmore Seavantage, Ardmore Seavanguard, Ardmore Sealion, Ardmore Seafox, Ardmore Seahawk, Ardmore Endeavour, Ardmore Seafarer, Ardmore Seatrader, Ardmore Seamaster and Ardmore Sealeader. The Company has over 30 subsidiaries, the majority of which represent single ship-owning companies for its fleet. Its subsidiaries include Ardmore Shipping (Bermuda) Limited (ASBL), Ardmore Shipping Services (Ireland) Limited (ASSIL), Ardmore Shipping (Asia) Pte. Limited and Ardmore Shipping (Americas) LLC.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ardmore Shipping (ASC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 51.4
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 104%
Total Debt to Equity 114.4%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 0.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Equity 1.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.9%
EBITDA Margin 28.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.6%
Operating Margin 14.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 225%

ASC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ASC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $195.935392 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ardmore Shipping. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Ardmore Shipping. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ASC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for ASC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ardmore Shipping, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ardmore Shipping.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ASC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ASC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Ardmore Shipping.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ardmore Shipping. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ASC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ASC are equal to 394.3%.

Life of production assets of 22.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ardmore Shipping operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ASC is equal to 13.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $380.97376 million for Ardmore Shipping - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.14 million for Ardmore Shipping is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ardmore Shipping at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ardmore Shipping: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [09:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ardmore Shipping: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:50AM  Associated Press]
▶ Who Owns Most Of Ardmore Shipping Corporation (NYSE:ASC)?   [May-15-18 03:39PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Ardmore Shipping: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 07:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is It Time To Buy Ardmore Shipping Corporation (NYSE:ASC)?   [Mar-26-18 07:08PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Ardmore Shipping reports 4Q loss   [Feb-07-18 08:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ardmore Shipping reports 3Q loss   [Nov-01-17 08:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is It Too Late To Buy Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC)?   [Sep-08-17 07:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Ardmore Shipping reports 2Q loss   [Aug-02-17 10:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ardmore Shipping reports 1Q loss   [May-03-17 08:41AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ardmore Shipping reports 4Q loss   [Feb-07-17 08:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Betting On Ardmore Shipping Corp (ASC)   [Dec-12-16 09:48AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Colonial Pipeline's Brief Trading Bonanza   [Nov-01-16 04:41PM  at The Wall Street Journal]

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