Intrinsic value of Ardmore Shipping - ASC

Previous Close

$7.70

  Intrinsic Value

$2.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-61%

Previous close

$7.70

 
Intrinsic value

$2.97

 
Up/down potential

-61%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ASC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Ardmore Shipping (ASC) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.80
  28.90
  26.51
  24.36
  22.42
  20.68
  19.11
  17.70
  16.43
  15.29
  14.26
  13.33
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.35
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
Revenue, $m
  164
  211
  267
  333
  407
  491
  585
  689
  802
  925
  1,057
  1,197
  1,347
  1,505
  1,672
  1,847
  2,030
  2,222
  2,421
  2,629
  2,846
  3,071
  3,305
  3,548
  3,800
  4,063
  4,335
  4,619
  4,914
  5,221
  5,541
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  152
  193
  239
  293
  354
  421
  496
  577
  666
  761
  862
  970
  1,084
  1,204
  1,330
  1,462
  1,600
  1,743
  1,893
  2,049
  2,211
  2,379
  2,554
  2,736
  2,925
  3,121
  3,326
  3,538
  3,759
  3,990
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  140
  152
  193
  239
  293
  354
  421
  496
  577
  666
  761
  862
  970
  1,084
  1,204
  1,330
  1,462
  1,600
  1,743
  1,893
  2,049
  2,211
  2,379
  2,554
  2,736
  2,925
  3,121
  3,326
  3,538
  3,759
  3,990
Operating income, $m
  24
  59
  75
  93
  114
  138
  164
  193
  225
  259
  296
  335
  377
  422
  468
  517
  569
  622
  678
  736
  797
  860
  925
  993
  1,064
  1,138
  1,214
  1,293
  1,376
  1,462
  1,552
EBITDA, $m
  54
  98
  124
  154
  188
  227
  271
  319
  371
  428
  489
  554
  623
  697
  774
  855
  940
  1,028
  1,121
  1,217
  1,317
  1,421
  1,529
  1,642
  1,759
  1,880
  2,006
  2,138
  2,274
  2,416
  2,564
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  15
  19
  24
  30
  37
  45
  54
  64
  74
  86
  98
  111
  125
  140
  156
  172
  189
  207
  226
  245
  265
  287
  308
  331
  355
  379
  405
  431
  459
  488
Earnings before tax, $m
  4
  44
  56
  69
  84
  100
  119
  139
  161
  185
  210
  237
  266
  296
  328
  361
  396
  433
  471
  510
  552
  594
  639
  685
  733
  783
  835
  889
  945
  1,003
  1,064
Tax expense, $m
  0
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  43
  50
  57
  64
  72
  80
  89
  98
  107
  117
  127
  138
  149
  160
  172
  185
  198
  211
  225
  240
  255
  271
  287
Net income, $m
  4
  32
  41
  50
  61
  73
  87
  101
  117
  135
  153
  173
  194
  216
  239
  264
  289
  316
  344
  373
  403
  434
  466
  500
  535
  571
  609
  649
  690
  732
  777

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  884
  1,068
  1,351
  1,680
  2,056
  2,482
  2,956
  3,479
  4,051
  4,670
  5,336
  6,048
  6,803
  7,603
  8,445
  9,329
  10,254
  11,221
  12,230
  13,280
  14,373
  15,509
  16,690
  17,917
  19,192
  20,518
  21,896
  23,329
  24,819
  26,371
  27,986
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  828
  1,068
  1,351
  1,680
  2,056
  2,482
  2,956
  3,479
  4,051
  4,670
  5,336
  6,048
  6,803
  7,603
  8,445
  9,329
  10,254
  11,221
  12,230
  13,280
  14,373
  15,509
  16,690
  17,917
  19,192
  20,518
  21,896
  23,329
  24,819
  26,371
  27,986
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
Average production assets, $m
  723
  931
  1,178
  1,465
  1,794
  2,164
  2,578
  3,034
  3,533
  4,073
  4,654
  5,275
  5,934
  6,631
  7,366
  8,137
  8,944
  9,787
  10,667
  11,583
  12,536
  13,527
  14,557
  15,627
  16,739
  17,896
  19,097
  20,347
  21,647
  23,000
  24,409
Working capital, $m
  35
  27
  34
  43
  52
  63
  75
  88
  103
  118
  135
  153
  172
  193
  214
  236
  260
  284
  310
  337
  364
  393
  423
  454
  486
  520
  555
  591
  629
  668
  709
Total debt, $m
  462
  547
  697
  871
  1,070
  1,295
  1,546
  1,822
  2,125
  2,453
  2,805
  3,181
  3,581
  4,004
  4,449
  4,917
  5,407
  5,918
  6,451
  7,007
  7,585
  8,186
  8,811
  9,460
  10,135
  10,836
  11,565
  12,323
  13,112
  13,932
  14,787
Total liabilities, $m
  479
  565
  715
  889
  1,088
  1,313
  1,564
  1,840
  2,143
  2,471
  2,823
  3,199
  3,599
  4,022
  4,467
  4,935
  5,425
  5,936
  6,469
  7,025
  7,603
  8,204
  8,829
  9,478
  10,153
  10,854
  11,583
  12,341
  13,130
  13,950
  14,805
Total equity, $m
  404
  503
  636
  791
  969
  1,169
  1,392
  1,639
  1,908
  2,200
  2,513
  2,848
  3,204
  3,581
  3,978
  4,394
  4,830
  5,285
  5,760
  6,255
  6,769
  7,305
  7,861
  8,439
  9,040
  9,664
  10,313
  10,988
  11,690
  12,421
  13,182
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  883
  1,068
  1,351
  1,680
  2,057
  2,482
  2,956
  3,479
  4,051
  4,671
  5,336
  6,047
  6,803
  7,603
  8,445
  9,329
  10,255
  11,221
  12,229
  13,280
  14,372
  15,509
  16,690
  17,917
  19,193
  20,518
  21,896
  23,329
  24,820
  26,371
  27,987
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.144
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.420
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  32
  41
  50
  61
  73
  87
  101
  117
  135
  153
  173
  194
  216
  239
  264
  289
  316
  344
  373
  403
  434
  466
  500
  535
  571
  609
  649
  690
  732
  777
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  39
  49
  61
  74
  90
  107
  126
  147
  169
  193
  219
  246
  275
  306
  338
  371
  406
  443
  481
  520
  561
  604
  648
  695
  743
  792
  844
  898
  954
  1,013
Funds from operations, $m
  42
  71
  90
  111
  135
  163
  194
  227
  264
  304
  346
  392
  440
  491
  545
  601
  660
  722
  786
  853
  923
  995
  1,070
  1,148
  1,230
  1,314
  1,402
  1,493
  1,588
  1,687
  1,790
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
Cash from operations, $m
  43
  65
  82
  103
  126
  152
  182
  214
  249
  288
  330
  374
  421
  471
  524
  579
  637
  698
  761
  827
  895
  966
  1,040
  1,117
  1,197
  1,280
  1,367
  1,457
  1,550
  1,647
  1,749
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -39
  -49
  -61
  -74
  -90
  -107
  -126
  -147
  -169
  -193
  -219
  -246
  -275
  -306
  -338
  -371
  -406
  -443
  -481
  -520
  -561
  -604
  -648
  -695
  -743
  -792
  -844
  -898
  -954
New CAPEX, $m
  -174
  -209
  -247
  -287
  -329
  -371
  -414
  -456
  -499
  -540
  -581
  -621
  -659
  -697
  -734
  -771
  -807
  -843
  -879
  -916
  -953
  -991
  -1,030
  -1,070
  -1,112
  -1,156
  -1,202
  -1,250
  -1,300
  -1,353
  -1,409
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -122
  -239
  -286
  -336
  -390
  -445
  -504
  -563
  -625
  -687
  -750
  -814
  -878
  -943
  -1,009
  -1,077
  -1,145
  -1,214
  -1,285
  -1,359
  -1,434
  -1,511
  -1,591
  -1,674
  -1,760
  -1,851
  -1,945
  -2,042
  -2,144
  -2,251
  -2,363
Free cash flow, $m
  -79
  -174
  -203
  -233
  -263
  -293
  -322
  -349
  -375
  -399
  -420
  -440
  -457
  -472
  -486
  -498
  -508
  -517
  -525
  -532
  -539
  -545
  -551
  -557
  -564
  -570
  -578
  -586
  -594
  -604
  -615
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  50
  127
  150
  174
  199
  225
  251
  277
  302
  328
  352
  376
  400
  423
  445
  468
  490
  511
  533
  556
  578
  601
  625
  649
  675
  701
  729
  758
  789
  821
  855
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  61
  80
  93
  105
  116
  127
  137
  145
  152
  157
  160
  162
  162
  160
  157
  152
  147
  139
  131
  122
  112
  101
  90
  78
  66
  53
  40
  26
  12
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  105
  207
  243
  279
  315
  352
  388
  422
  454
  485
  512
  538
  562
  583
  602
  620
  637
  650
  664
  678
  690
  702
  715
  727
  741
  754
  769
  784
  801
  821
  855
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  25
  34
  39
  46
  52
  59
  66
  73
  79
  86
  92
  99
  105
  111
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  152
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  217
  240
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -56
  -113
  -133
  -155
  -177
  -200
  -223
  -246
  -269
  -292
  -314
  -335
  -356
  -377
  -397
  -416
  -436
  -455
  -475
  -495
  -515
  -535
  -556
  -578
  -601
  -624
  -649
  -675
  -702
  -731
  -761
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -65
  -94
  -109
  -125
  -141
  -158
  -174
  -190
  -206
  -221
  -236
  -251
  -266
  -280
  -294
  -308
  -321
  -335
  -349
  -363
  -378
  -393
  -408
  -424
  -441
  -458
  -476
  -495
  -514
  -521
Discount rate, %
 
  8.50
  8.93
  9.37
  9.84
  10.33
  10.85
  11.39
  11.96
  12.56
  13.19
  13.85
  14.54
  15.26
  16.03
  16.83
  17.67
  18.55
  19.48
  20.46
  21.48
  22.55
  23.68
  24.86
  26.11
  27.41
  28.78
  30.22
  31.73
  33.32
  34.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -60
  -79
  -84
  -86
  -86
  -85
  -82
  -77
  -71
  -64
  -57
  -49
  -42
  -35
  -28
  -23
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  77.3
  61.2
  49.5
  40.9
  34.4
  29.5
  25.7
  22.7
  20.3
  18.4
  16.8
  15.6
  14.5
  13.7
  13.0
  12.4
  11.9
  11.5
  11.1
  10.9
  10.6
  10.5
  10.3
  10.2
  10.1
  10.0
  10.0
  10.0
  10.0
  10.0

Ardmore Shipping Corporation provides seaborne transportation of petroleum products and chemicals to national oil companies, oil and chemical traders, and chemical companies, with its fleet of mid-size product and chemical tankers. The Company's segment relates to the operations of its vessels. The Company's fleet consists of over 20 double-hulled product and chemical tankers, all of which are in operation. The Company's vessels include Ardmore Seavaliant, Ardmore Seaventure, Ardmore Seavantage, Ardmore Seavanguard, Ardmore Sealion, Ardmore Seafox, Ardmore Seahawk, Ardmore Endeavour, Ardmore Seafarer, Ardmore Seatrader, Ardmore Seamaster and Ardmore Sealeader. The Company has over 30 subsidiaries, the majority of which represent single ship-owning companies for its fleet. Its subsidiaries include Ardmore Shipping (Bermuda) Limited (ASBL), Ardmore Shipping Services (Ireland) Limited (ASSIL), Ardmore Shipping (Asia) Pte. Limited and Ardmore Shipping (Americas) LLC.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ardmore Shipping (ASC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 63.7
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 104%
Total Debt to Equity 114.4%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 0.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Equity 1.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.9%
EBITDA Margin 28.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.6%
Operating Margin 14.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 225%

ASC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ASC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $164 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ardmore Shipping. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ardmore Shipping. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ASC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 28.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.5%, whose default value for ASC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ardmore Shipping, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ardmore Shipping.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ASC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ASC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ardmore Shipping.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ardmore Shipping. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ASC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ASC are equal to 440.5%.

Life of production assets of 24.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ardmore Shipping operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ASC is equal to 12.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $404 million for Ardmore Shipping - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.995 million for Ardmore Shipping is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ardmore Shipping at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ardmore Shipping reports 4Q loss   [Feb-07-18 08:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ardmore Shipping reports 3Q loss   [Nov-01-17 08:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is It Too Late To Buy Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC)?   [Sep-08-17 07:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Ardmore Shipping reports 2Q loss   [Aug-02-17 10:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ardmore Shipping reports 1Q loss   [May-03-17 08:41AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ardmore Shipping reports 4Q loss   [Feb-07-17 08:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Betting On Ardmore Shipping Corp (ASC)   [Dec-12-16 09:48AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Colonial Pipeline's Brief Trading Bonanza   [Nov-01-16 04:41PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Two Picks in Tankers Ready to Shape Up   [Jul-20-16 11:24AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Ardmore Shipping Corp Sinks on a Discounted Stock Offering   [Jun-08-16 04:06PM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of ASC
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