Intrinsic value of Ascent Capital Group, Inc. - ASCMA

Previous Close

$0.93

  Intrinsic Value

$2.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+137%

Previous close

$0.93

 
Intrinsic value

$2.20

 
Up/down potential

+137%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ASCMA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  564
  577
  592
  609
  627
  647
  669
  693
  719
  746
  776
  807
  841
  877
  914
  954
  997
  1,042
  1,089
  1,139
  1,192
  1,248
  1,306
  1,368
  1,433
  1,502
  1,574
  1,650
  1,730
  1,814
Variable operating expenses, $m
  102
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  120
  125
  129
  134
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  191
  199
  209
  218
  229
  239
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  318
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  430
  440
  449
  459
  469
  480
  490
  501
  512
  523
  535
  547
  559
  571
  584
  596
  609
  623
  637
  651
  665
  680
  694
  710
  725
  741
  758
  774
  791
  809
Total operating expenses, $m
  532
  544
  556
  569
  582
  597
  610
  626
  641
  657
  671
  688
  706
  724
  744
  763
  783
  805
  828
  850
  874
  898
  923
  949
  976
  1,004
  1,034
  1,063
  1,094
  1,127
Operating income, $m
  32
  33
  36
  39
  45
  51
  59
  67
  78
  89
  105
  119
  135
  152
  171
  191
  213
  237
  262
  289
  318
  350
  383
  419
  457
  498
  541
  587
  636
  688
EBITDA, $m
  58
  59
  63
  67
  73
  80
  89
  99
  110
  122
  136
  152
  169
  187
  207
  229
  253
  278
  306
  335
  366
  400
  436
  474
  515
  558
  604
  653
  705
  760
Interest expense (income), $m
  121
  154
  150
  154
  158
  163
  168
  174
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  261
  273
  286
  299
  313
  328
  344
  361
  378
  397
  416
  437
  458
  481
Earnings before tax, $m
  -122
  -117
  -118
  -119
  -118
  -117
  -115
  -113
  -109
  -105
  -97
  -91
  -84
  -77
  -68
  -59
  -48
  -36
  -24
  -10
  5
  21
  39
  58
  79
  101
  125
  150
  178
  207
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  6
  11
  16
  21
  27
  34
  41
  48
  56
Net income, $m
  -122
  -117
  -118
  -119
  -118
  -117
  -115
  -113
  -109
  -105
  -97
  -91
  -84
  -77
  -68
  -59
  -48
  -36
  -24
  -10
  4
  16
  29
  43
  58
  74
  91
  110
  130
  151

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,066
  2,114
  2,168
  2,229
  2,297
  2,371
  2,451
  2,539
  2,633
  2,734
  2,842
  2,957
  3,080
  3,211
  3,349
  3,496
  3,651
  3,816
  3,989
  4,173
  4,366
  4,570
  4,785
  5,012
  5,250
  5,501
  5,766
  6,044
  6,337
  6,645
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,066
  2,114
  2,168
  2,229
  2,297
  2,371
  2,451
  2,539
  2,633
  2,734
  2,842
  2,957
  3,080
  3,211
  3,349
  3,496
  3,651
  3,816
  3,989
  4,173
  4,366
  4,570
  4,785
  5,012
  5,250
  5,501
  5,766
  6,044
  6,337
  6,645
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
Average production assets, $m
  679
  694
  712
  732
  754
  779
  805
  834
  865
  898
  933
  971
  1,012
  1,055
  1,100
  1,148
  1,199
  1,253
  1,310
  1,370
  1,434
  1,501
  1,572
  1,646
  1,724
  1,807
  1,894
  1,985
  2,081
  2,182
Working capital, $m
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -173
  -182
  -190
  -200
  -209
  -219
Total debt, $m
  1,747
  1,790
  1,839
  1,894
  1,955
  2,021
  2,094
  2,173
  2,257
  2,348
  2,446
  2,549
  2,660
  2,777
  2,902
  3,034
  3,174
  3,322
  3,478
  3,643
  3,817
  4,001
  4,194
  4,398
  4,613
  4,839
  5,077
  5,327
  5,591
  5,868
Total liabilities, $m
  1,860
  1,902
  1,951
  2,006
  2,067
  2,134
  2,206
  2,285
  2,370
  2,461
  2,558
  2,662
  2,772
  2,890
  3,014
  3,147
  3,286
  3,434
  3,590
  3,755
  3,930
  4,113
  4,307
  4,510
  4,725
  4,951
  5,189
  5,440
  5,703
  5,980
Total equity, $m
  207
  211
  217
  223
  230
  237
  245
  254
  263
  273
  284
  296
  308
  321
  335
  350
  365
  382
  399
  417
  437
  457
  479
  501
  525
  550
  577
  604
  634
  664
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,067
  2,113
  2,168
  2,229
  2,297
  2,371
  2,451
  2,539
  2,633
  2,734
  2,842
  2,958
  3,080
  3,211
  3,349
  3,497
  3,651
  3,816
  3,989
  4,172
  4,367
  4,570
  4,786
  5,011
  5,250
  5,501
  5,766
  6,044
  6,337
  6,644
Debt-to-equity ratio
  8.460
  8.470
  8.480
  8.500
  8.510
  8.530
  8.540
  8.560
  8.570
  8.590
  8.600
  8.620
  8.640
  8.650
  8.660
  8.680
  8.690
  8.710
  8.720
  8.730
  8.740
  8.750
  8.770
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
  8.810
  8.820
  8.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -122
  -117
  -118
  -119
  -118
  -117
  -115
  -113
  -109
  -105
  -97
  -91
  -84
  -77
  -68
  -59
  -48
  -36
  -24
  -10
  4
  16
  29
  43
  58
  74
  91
  110
  130
  151
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
Funds from operations, $m
  -96
  -91
  -91
  -91
  -90
  -88
  -85
  -82
  -77
  -72
  -66
  -59
  -50
  -41
  -31
  -20
  -8
  5
  20
  36
  52
  66
  81
  97
  115
  134
  154
  176
  199
  224
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from operations, $m
  -95
  -89
  -90
  -89
  -88
  -85
  -83
  -79
  -74
  -68
  -62
  -55
  -46
  -37
  -27
  -15
  -3
  11
  26
  42
  58
  72
  88
  105
  123
  142
  163
  185
  209
  234
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -77
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
Free cash flow, $m
  -131
  -127
  -131
  -133
  -134
  -135
  -135
  -134
  -133
  -130
  -127
  -124
  -119
  -114
  -107
  -100
  -92
  -83
  -73
  -62
  -51
  -42
  -33
  -22
  -10
  2
  16
  31
  46
  63
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -42
  43
  49
  55
  61
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111
  117
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  204
  215
  226
  238
  250
  263
  277
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  201
  122
  124
  125
  125
  125
  123
  121
  119
  115
  108
  102
  96
  90
  82
  73
  64
  53
  41
  28
  16
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  159
  165
  173
  180
  186
  192
  196
  200
  204
  206
  205
  206
  207
  207
  207
  205
  204
  201
  197
  193
  190
  189
  194
  204
  215
  226
  238
  250
  263
  277
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  28
  37
  42
  47
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  77
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  124
  131
  138
  146
  161
  182
  204
  228
  254
  281
  310
  341
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -201
  -122
  -124
  -125
  -125
  -125
  -123
  -121
  -119
  -115
  -108
  -102
  -96
  -90
  -82
  -73
  -64
  -53
  -41
  -28
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -157
  -85
  -82
  -78
  -73
  -68
  -62
  -56
  -48
  -40
  -30
  -20
  -9
  4
  17
  32
  48
  65
  83
  103
  119
  126
  139
  159
  181
  203
  227
  253
  281
  310
Discount rate, %
  12.80
  13.44
  14.11
  14.82
  15.56
  16.34
  17.15
  18.01
  18.91
  19.86
  20.85
  21.89
  22.99
  24.14
  25.34
  26.61
  27.94
  29.34
  30.80
  32.34
  33.96
  35.66
  37.44
  39.32
  41.28
  43.35
  45.51
  47.79
  50.18
  52.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -140
  -66
  -55
  -45
  -36
  -28
  -21
  -15
  -10
  -6
  -4
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  30.8
  16.7
  9.1
  5.0
  2.8
  1.6
  0.9
  0.5
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Ascent Capital Group, Inc. is a holding company. The Company's subsidiaries include Monitronics International, Inc. (MONI) and LiveWatch Security, LLC (LiveWatch). The Company's segments include MONI, LiveWatch and Other Activities. The MONI segment is primarily engaged in the business of providing security alarm monitoring services: monitoring signals arising from burglaries, fires, medical alerts and other events through security systems at subscribers' premises, as well as providing customer service and technical support. LiveWatch is a do-it-yourself home security provider offering professionally monitored security services through a direct-to-consumer sales channel. LiveWatch offers a differentiated go-to-market strategy through direct response television, Internet and radio advertising. When a customer initiates the process to obtain monitoring services, LiveWatch pre-configures the alarm monitoring system based on customer specifications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ascent Capital Group, Inc. (ASCMA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.1
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -24.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.9
LT Debt to Equity 733.9%
Total Debt to Equity 738.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Return On Total Capital -4.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.5%
Return On Equity -32.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.1%
EBITDA Margin 51.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.1%
Operating Margin 8.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.8%
Net Profit Margin -16%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.6%
Effective Tax Rate -8.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

ASCMA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ASCMA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $553 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ascent Capital Group, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Ascent Capital Group, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ASCMA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.8%, whose default value for ASCMA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ascent Capital Group, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ascent Capital Group, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ASCMA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 18.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $421 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ASCMA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.6% for Ascent Capital Group, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ascent Capital Group, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ASCMA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ASCMA are equal to 120.3%.

Life of production assets of 146.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ascent Capital Group, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ASCMA is equal to -12.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $142.672 million for Ascent Capital Group, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.443 million for Ascent Capital Group, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ascent Capital Group, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
BCO Brink's Co 76.74 54.87  sell

CONTACT US      

About X-FIN       Privacy policy       Terms of use      

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2019. All rigths reserved.