Intrinsic value of ASV Holdings - ASV

Previous Close

$3.34

  Intrinsic Value

$6.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+88%

Previous close

$3.34

 
Intrinsic value

$6.30

 
Up/down potential

+88%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ASV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  126
  129
  132
  136
  140
  144
  149
  155
  160
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  305
  320
  335
  351
  368
  386
  405
Variable operating expenses, $m
  119
  121
  124
  127
  131
  135
  140
  144
  150
  155
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  274
  288
  301
  316
  331
  347
  364
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  119
  121
  124
  127
  131
  135
  140
  144
  150
  155
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  274
  288
  301
  316
  331
  347
  364
Operating income, $m
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
EBITDA, $m
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
Tax expense, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Net income, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  118
  121
  124
  127
  131
  135
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  218
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
  314
  329
  345
  361
  379
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  118
  121
  124
  127
  131
  135
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  218
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
  314
  329
  345
  361
  379
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.068
  1.066
  1.065
  1.071
  1.069
  1.067
  1.064
  1.069
  1.067
  1.064
  1.068
  1.065
  1.068
  1.071
  1.068
  1.070
  1.067
  1.064
  1.070
  1.067
  1.068
  1.065
  1.066
  1.066
  1.070
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.069
  1.069
Average production assets, $m
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
Working capital, $m
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
Total debt, $m
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
  119
  125
  132
  140
Total liabilities, $m
  50
  52
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  147
  155
  162
Total equity, $m
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  117
  121
  124
  127
  131
  135
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  285
  299
  313
  329
  344
  362
  379
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Funds from operations, $m
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
Free cash flow, $m
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
Discount rate, %
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ASV Holdings, Inc. (ASV) is engaged in designing and manufacturing a range of compact track loader (CTL) and skid steer loader (SSL) equipment for construction, agricultural and forestry industries. The Company manufactures Posi-Track, rubber-tracked CTLs with multi-level suspension. CTLs are compact tracked vehicles with lift arms that functions in wet, muddy, snowy or harsh conditions and where there are slopes and grades, such as in a construction, agriculture or forestry environment. SSLs are wheeled vehicles with lift arms that can be outfitted with the same attachments as CTLs and can therefore be used in the same applications. The Company also serves as a private label original equipment manufacturer (OEM) for several manufacturers. It provides pre- and post-sale dealer support, after-sale technical support and replacement parts. The Company markets through a distribution network in North America, Australia and New Zealand under the ASV and Terex brands.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ASV Holdings (ASV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -32.7
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -11.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 30.2%
Total Debt to Equity 30.2%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital -1.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Return On Equity -1.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 15.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
EBITDA Margin 7.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Operating Margin 3.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Pre-Tax Margin -1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Net Profit Margin -1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ASV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ASV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $123.34 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ASV Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of ASV Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ASV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for ASV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ASV Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ASV Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ASV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ASV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.4% for ASV Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ASV Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ASV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ASV are equal to 34.3%.

Life of production assets of 14.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ASV Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ASV is equal to 20.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $65.801 million for ASV Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9.834 million for ASV Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ASV Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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