Intrinsic value of Amtech Systems, Inc. - ASYS

Previous Close

$6.00

  Intrinsic Value

$7.89

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+31%

Previous close

$6.00

 
Intrinsic value

$7.89

 
Up/down potential

+31%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ASYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  180
  184
  188
  194
  200
  206
  213
  221
  229
  238
  247
  257
  268
  279
  291
  304
  317
  332
  347
  363
  379
  397
  416
  435
  456
  478
  501
  525
  551
  577
Variable operating expenses, $m
  168
  172
  177
  181
  187
  193
  199
  207
  214
  222
  229
  239
  249
  259
  270
  282
  295
  308
  322
  337
  352
  369
  386
  404
  424
  444
  465
  488
  511
  536
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  168
  172
  177
  181
  187
  193
  199
  207
  214
  222
  229
  239
  249
  259
  270
  282
  295
  308
  322
  337
  352
  369
  386
  404
  424
  444
  465
  488
  511
  536
Operating income, $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
EBITDA, $m
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Earnings before tax, $m
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
Tax expense, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
Net income, $m
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  134
  137
  141
  145
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  209
  218
  227
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  341
  358
  375
  393
  412
  432
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  134
  137
  141
  145
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  209
  218
  227
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  341
  358
  375
  393
  412
  432
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.343
  1.343
  1.333
  1.338
  1.342
  1.338
  1.340
  1.339
  1.339
  1.337
  1.335
  1.339
  1.340
  1.335
  1.335
  1.339
  1.338
  1.339
  1.340
  1.339
  1.335
  1.337
  1.338
  1.334
  1.337
  1.335
  1.336
  1.336
  1.337
  1.336
Average production assets, $m
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
Working capital, $m
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
Total debt, $m
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  112
  119
  127
  136
Total liabilities, $m
  57
  58
  60
  62
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
Total equity, $m
  77
  79
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  125
  131
  136
  143
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  206
  215
  226
  237
  248
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  134
  137
  141
  145
  149
  154
  160
  165
  171
  178
  184
  193
  200
  209
  218
  228
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  325
  341
  358
  374
  393
  412
  432
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.120
  0.140
  0.150
  0.170
  0.180
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Funds from operations, $m
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Free cash flow, $m
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  26
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  25
  8
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Amtech Systems, Inc. is engaged in the manufacture of capital equipment, including thermal processing, silicon wafer handling automation and related consumables used in fabricating solar cells, Light Emitting Diode (LED) and semiconductor devices. The Company operates through three business segments: solar, semiconductor and polishing. The solar segment supplies thermal processing systems, including diffusion; plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD); atomic layer deposition (ALD), and related automation, parts and services to the solar/photovoltaic industry. The semiconductor segment supplies thermal processing equipment, including solder reflow equipment and related controls for use by the semiconductor manufacturers and in electronics assembly for automotive and other industries. The polishing supplies segment produces consumables and machinery for lapping (fine abrading) and polishing of materials, such as sapphire substrates and optical components.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Amtech Systems, Inc. (ASYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.8
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 37.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 8.9%
Total Debt to Equity 8.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Return On Total Capital 10.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.4%
Return On Equity 11.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.7%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.5%
EBITDA Margin 7.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Operating Margin 6.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
Net Profit Margin 5.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

ASYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ASYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $176 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Amtech Systems, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Amtech Systems, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ASYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ASYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Amtech Systems, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Amtech Systems, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ASYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ASYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Amtech Systems, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Amtech Systems, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ASYS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ASYS are equal to 12.4%.

Life of production assets of 14.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Amtech Systems, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ASYS is equal to 9.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $93.09 million for Amtech Systems, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 14.228 million for Amtech Systems, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Amtech Systems, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
CVV CVD Equipment 3.69 10.33  str.buy
AMAT Applied Materi 46.51 56.29  buy
BRKS Brooks Automat 39.50 12.74  str.sell
LRCX Lam Research C 191.24 243.92  buy
IVAC Intevac, Inc. 4.98 35.50  str.buy
VECO Veeco Instrume 11.86 0.88  str.sell

CONTACT US      

About X-FIN       Privacy policy       Terms of use      

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2019. All rigths reserved.