Intrinsic value of Amtech Systems - ASYS

Previous Close

$4.81

  Intrinsic Value

$210.34

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$4.81

 
Intrinsic value

$210.34

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ASYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  36.80
  33.62
  30.76
  28.18
  25.86
  23.78
  21.90
  20.21
  18.69
  17.32
  16.09
  14.98
  13.98
  13.08
  12.27
  11.55
  10.89
  10.30
  9.77
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
Revenue, $m
  226
  302
  394
  506
  636
  788
  960
  1,154
  1,370
  1,607
  1,865
  2,145
  2,445
  2,765
  3,104
  3,462
  3,840
  4,235
  4,649
  5,081
  5,532
  6,001
  6,489
  6,996
  7,523
  8,071
  8,641
  9,233
  9,848
  10,488
Variable operating expenses, $m
  145
  193
  252
  322
  405
  502
  611
  734
  871
  1,022
  1,184
  1,362
  1,552
  1,755
  1,971
  2,198
  2,438
  2,689
  2,952
  3,226
  3,512
  3,810
  4,120
  4,442
  4,777
  5,125
  5,486
  5,862
  6,253
  6,659
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
Total operating expenses, $m
  196
  245
  305
  377
  461
  559
  669
  794
  932
  1,084
  1,248
  1,427
  1,618
  1,823
  2,040
  2,269
  2,510
  2,763
  3,028
  3,303
  3,591
  3,891
  4,202
  4,526
  4,863
  5,213
  5,576
  5,954
  6,347
  6,755
Operating income, $m
  30
  56
  89
  129
  175
  229
  291
  360
  438
  523
  618
  718
  826
  942
  1,064
  1,193
  1,329
  1,472
  1,622
  1,778
  1,941
  2,110
  2,287
  2,470
  2,661
  2,859
  3,065
  3,279
  3,501
  3,733
EBITDA, $m
  36
  64
  98
  140
  189
  245
  310
  384
  465
  555
  653
  758
  872
  994
  1,122
  1,258
  1,402
  1,552
  1,709
  1,873
  2,045
  2,223
  2,409
  2,601
  2,802
  3,010
  3,227
  3,452
  3,687
  3,930
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  5
  8
  12
  16
  21
  27
  33
  40
  48
  57
  66
  76
  87
  98
  110
  122
  136
  149
  164
  179
  194
  210
  227
  245
  263
  282
  301
  322
Earnings before tax, $m
  29
  54
  84
  120
  163
  213
  270
  333
  404
  483
  569
  661
  760
  865
  977
  1,095
  1,220
  1,350
  1,486
  1,629
  1,777
  1,932
  2,092
  2,260
  2,433
  2,614
  2,802
  2,997
  3,200
  3,411
Tax expense, $m
  8
  15
  23
  33
  44
  58
  73
  90
  109
  130
  154
  179
  205
  234
  264
  296
  329
  364
  401
  440
  480
  522
  565
  610
  657
  706
  756
  809
  864
  921
Net income, $m
  21
  39
  61
  88
  119
  155
  197
  243
  295
  352
  416
  483
  555
  632
  713
  800
  890
  985
  1,085
  1,189
  1,297
  1,410
  1,527
  1,650
  1,776
  1,908
  2,045
  2,188
  2,336
  2,490

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  263
  351
  459
  588
  741
  917
  1,118
  1,343
  1,595
  1,871
  2,172
  2,497
  2,846
  3,218
  3,614
  4,031
  4,470
  4,930
  5,412
  5,915
  6,440
  6,986
  7,554
  8,145
  8,758
  9,396
  10,059
  10,748
  11,464
  12,209
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  263
  351
  459
  588
  741
  917
  1,118
  1,343
  1,595
  1,871
  2,172
  2,497
  2,846
  3,218
  3,614
  4,031
  4,470
  4,930
  5,412
  5,915
  6,440
  6,986
  7,554
  8,145
  8,758
  9,396
  10,059
  10,748
  11,464
  12,209
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.859
  0.860
  0.858
  0.861
  0.858
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
Average production assets, $m
  42
  57
  74
  95
  120
  148
  180
  217
  258
  302
  351
  403
  460
  520
  584
  651
  722
  796
  874
  955
  1,040
  1,128
  1,220
  1,315
  1,414
  1,517
  1,624
  1,736
  1,851
  1,972
Working capital, $m
  12
  16
  21
  27
  34
  42
  51
  61
  73
  85
  99
  114
  130
  147
  165
  184
  203
  224
  246
  269
  293
  318
  344
  371
  399
  428
  458
  489
  522
  556
Total debt, $m
  46
  92
  149
  218
  298
  391
  497
  616
  749
  895
  1,054
  1,225
  1,410
  1,606
  1,815
  2,035
  2,267
  2,510
  2,765
  3,030
  3,307
  3,595
  3,895
  4,207
  4,531
  4,868
  5,218
  5,582
  5,960
  6,353
Total liabilities, $m
  139
  185
  242
  311
  391
  484
  590
  709
  842
  988
  1,147
  1,318
  1,503
  1,699
  1,908
  2,128
  2,360
  2,603
  2,858
  3,123
  3,400
  3,689
  3,988
  4,300
  4,624
  4,961
  5,311
  5,675
  6,053
  6,447
Total equity, $m
  124
  166
  217
  278
  350
  433
  528
  634
  753
  883
  1,025
  1,179
  1,343
  1,519
  1,706
  1,903
  2,110
  2,327
  2,555
  2,792
  3,040
  3,297
  3,565
  3,844
  4,134
  4,435
  4,748
  5,073
  5,411
  5,763
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  263
  351
  459
  589
  741
  917
  1,118
  1,343
  1,595
  1,871
  2,172
  2,497
  2,846
  3,218
  3,614
  4,031
  4,470
  4,930
  5,413
  5,915
  6,440
  6,986
  7,553
  8,144
  8,758
  9,396
  10,059
  10,748
  11,464
  12,210
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.370
  0.560
  0.690
  0.780
  0.850
  0.900
  0.940
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  21
  39
  61
  88
  119
  155
  197
  243
  295
  352
  416
  483
  555
  632
  713
  800
  890
  985
  1,085
  1,189
  1,297
  1,410
  1,527
  1,650
  1,776
  1,908
  2,045
  2,188
  2,336
  2,490
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  16
  20
  23
  27
  32
  35
  40
  46
  52
  58
  65
  72
  80
  87
  96
  104
  113
  122
  132
  141
  152
  162
  174
  185
  197
Funds from operations, $m
  27
  47
  70
  99
  133
  172
  216
  267
  323
  384
  451
  523
  601
  684
  772
  865
  962
  1,065
  1,172
  1,284
  1,401
  1,523
  1,649
  1,781
  1,918
  2,060
  2,208
  2,361
  2,521
  2,687
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
Cash from operations, $m
  24
  43
  65
  93
  126
  164
  207
  256
  311
  371
  437
  508
  585
  667
  754
  846
  942
  1,044
  1,150
  1,261
  1,377
  1,498
  1,624
  1,754
  1,890
  2,031
  2,178
  2,330
  2,489
  2,653
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -80
  -87
  -96
  -104
  -113
  -122
  -132
  -141
  -152
  -162
  -174
  -185
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -35
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -63
  -71
  -79
  -88
  -96
  -106
  -116
  -125
  -136
  -146
  -158
  -168
  -181
  -192
  -205
  -217
  -231
  -244
  -259
  -273
  -290
  -305
Free cash flow, $m
  9
  24
  42
  65
  92
  123
  160
  202
  249
  301
  358
  421
  488
  561
  638
  720
  806
  897
  993
  1,093
  1,197
  1,306
  1,419
  1,537
  1,659
  1,787
  1,919
  2,056
  2,199
  2,348
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  37
  47
  57
  68
  80
  93
  106
  119
  133
  146
  159
  172
  184
  197
  209
  220
  232
  243
  254
  266
  277
  288
  300
  312
  324
  337
  350
  364
  378
  393
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  13
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  50
  49
  57
  68
  80
  93
  106
  119
  133
  146
  159
  172
  184
  197
  209
  220
  232
  243
  254
  266
  277
  288
  300
  312
  324
  337
  350
  364
  378
  393
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  59
  73
  99
  133
  172
  216
  266
  321
  381
  447
  517
  592
  673
  757
  847
  940
  1,038
  1,141
  1,247
  1,358
  1,474
  1,594
  1,719
  1,849
  1,983
  2,123
  2,269
  2,420
  2,577
  2,741
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -34
  -42
  -51
  -61
  -72
  -83
  -95
  -107
  -119
  -130
  -142
  -154
  -165
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -237
  -248
  -258
  -268
  -279
  -290
  -301
  -313
  -325
  -338
  -352
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
Cash available for distribution, $m
  25
  31
  48
  72
  100
  133
  171
  214
  263
  317
  375
  439
  508
  582
  660
  743
  831
  923
  1,020
  1,121
  1,226
  1,336
  1,451
  1,570
  1,694
  1,822
  1,956
  2,095
  2,239
  2,390
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  24
  29
  42
  59
  78
  97
  116
  134
  151
  166
  178
  187
  193
  195
  194
  189
  181
  170
  157
  142
  127
  111
  95
  80
  66
  53
  42
  32
  24
  18
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  83.3
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2
  81.2

Amtech Systems, Inc. is engaged in the manufacture of capital equipment, including thermal processing, silicon wafer handling automation and related consumables used in fabricating solar cells, Light Emitting Diode (LED) and semiconductor devices. The Company operates through three business segments: solar, semiconductor and polishing. The solar segment supplies thermal processing systems, including diffusion; plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD); atomic layer deposition (ALD), and related automation, parts and services to the solar/photovoltaic industry. The semiconductor segment supplies thermal processing equipment, including solder reflow equipment and related controls for use by the semiconductor manufacturers and in electronics assembly for automotive and other industries. The polishing supplies segment produces consumables and machinery for lapping (fine abrading) and polishing of materials, such as sapphire substrates and optical components.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Amtech Systems (ASYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.9
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 37.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 8.9%
Total Debt to Equity 8.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Return On Total Capital 10.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.4%
Return On Equity 11.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.7%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.5%
EBITDA Margin 7.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Operating Margin 6.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
Net Profit Margin 5.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

ASYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ASYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $165 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Amtech Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Amtech Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ASYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 36.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ASYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Amtech Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Amtech Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ASYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $50 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ASYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Amtech Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Amtech Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ASYS stock is equal to 0.8%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ASYS are equal to 18.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Amtech Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ASYS is equal to 5.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $90 million for Amtech Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13 million for Amtech Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Amtech Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Amtech: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Strong Buy Stocks from an Impressive Industry   [May-29-18 04:15PM  Zacks]
▶ Bet on These 5 Stocks with Remarkable Net Profit Margin   [May-18-18 12:00PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for May 14th   [May-14-18 09:48AM  Zacks]
▶ Amtech: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-10-18 05:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ Amtech Systems Announces Stock Repurchase Program   [Apr-02-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Amtech posts 1Q profit   [Feb-08-18 06:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is It Time To Buy Amtech Systems Inc (ASYS)?   [Nov-20-17 07:04PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Amtech posts 4Q profit   [04:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Stocks in Focus on New Analyst Coverage   [Oct-25-17 08:36AM  Zacks]
▶ Amtech posts 3Q profit   [Aug-09-17 10:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Amtech (ASYS) in Focus: Stock Moves 5.1% Higher   [Jun-08-17 08:35AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Amtech Systems, Inc. : May 30, 2017   [May-30-17 12:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Amtech Systems reports big revenue increase, record solar bookings   [May-11-17 01:15AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Amtech reports 2Q loss   [May-10-17 05:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Amtech posts 1Q loss   [Feb-09-17 06:21PM  Associated Press]
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