Intrinsic value of ATA Inc. - ATAI

Previous Close

$1.07

  Intrinsic Value

$10.53

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+884%

Previous close

$1.07

 
Intrinsic value

$10.53

 
Up/down potential

+884%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ATAI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  73
  78
  83
  87
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  122
  128
  135
  143
  150
  158
  167
  175
  184
  194
  204
  215
  226
  237
  249
  262
  275
  289
  304
  319
  336
Variable operating expenses, $m
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  64
  65
Total operating expenses, $m
  63
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  128
  132
  137
  143
  148
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
Operating income, $m
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  139
  148
EBITDA, $m
  13
  15
  18
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  120
  127
  136
  144
  153
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Earnings before tax, $m
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  120
  127
  135
  144
Tax expense, $m
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
Net income, $m
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  57
  60
  64
  68
  71
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
  150
  157
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  235
  246
  259
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  57
  60
  64
  68
  71
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
  150
  157
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  235
  246
  259
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.281
  1.300
  1.297
  1.279
  1.310
  1.289
  1.300
  1.298
  1.292
  1.298
  1.293
  1.298
  1.300
  1.293
  1.295
  1.295
  1.296
  1.296
  1.293
  1.299
  1.295
  1.299
  1.295
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.296
  1.294
  1.297
  1.297
Average production assets, $m
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
Working capital, $m
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
Total debt, $m
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
Total liabilities, $m
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  88
Total equity, $m
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  56
  60
  64
  68
  71
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  136
  142
  150
  157
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  213
  223
  234
  246
  259
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.040
  0.070
  0.100
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.230
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  104
  111
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Free cash flow, $m
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  91
  96
  103
  109
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  29
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  28
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  11
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ATA Inc. (ATA) is a provider of computer-based testing services in China. The Company offers services for the creation and delivery of computer-based tests utilizing its test delivery platform, testing technologies and testing services in China. Its computer-based testing services are used for licensure and certification tests in various industries, including information technology (IT) services, banking, securities, teaching and insurance. The Company's computer-based testing services clients include professional associations, Chinese governmental agencies and state-owned enterprises. As of March 31, 2016, the Company's test center network included approximately 3,035 test centers located throughout China. Its network allows its clients to administer computer-based and paper-based tests. The Company has delivered approximately 88.1 million tests, including approximately 11.8 million free tests for business development purposes.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ATA Inc. (ATAI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -51.9
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital -1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Equity -1.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.3%
EBITDA Margin 7.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Operating Margin 7.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Net Profit Margin -1.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Effective Tax Rate 125%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

ATAI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ATAI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $69 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ATA Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of ATA Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ATAI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ATAI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ATA Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ATA Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ATAI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 37.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $34 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ATAI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for ATA Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ATA Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ATAI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ATAI are equal to 16%.

Life of production assets of 9.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ATA Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ATAI is equal to -11.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $56.9521445364 million for ATA Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.212 million for ATA Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ATA Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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