Intrinsic value of A10 Networks - ATEN

Previous Close

$6.80

  Intrinsic Value

$7.18

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+6%

Previous close

$6.80

 
Intrinsic value

$7.18

 
Up/down potential

+6%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ATEN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.58
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
Revenue, $m
  230
  255
  281
  309
  338
  368
  399
  431
  465
  500
  536
  574
  614
  654
  697
  741
  787
  835
  885
  937
  992
  1,048
  1,108
  1,169
  1,234
  1,302
  1,372
  1,446
  1,523
  1,604
  1,689
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  99
  109
  119
  130
  142
  154
  166
  179
  193
  207
  220
  235
  251
  267
  284
  302
  320
  340
  360
  380
  402
  425
  449
  473
  499
  526
  555
  584
  615
  648
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  243
  250
  256
  262
  269
  275
  282
  289
  297
  304
  312
  319
  327
  336
  344
Total operating expenses, $m
  249
  267
  281
  296
  311
  328
  344
  361
  379
  398
  417
  435
  456
  477
  499
  522
  545
  570
  596
  622
  649
  677
  707
  738
  770
  803
  838
  874
  911
  951
  992
Operating income, $m
  -19
  -12
  0
  13
  26
  40
  55
  70
  86
  103
  120
  139
  158
  177
  198
  219
  242
  265
  290
  316
  343
  371
  401
  432
  464
  498
  534
  572
  612
  653
  697
EBITDA, $m
  -11
  -9
  3
  16
  30
  44
  59
  74
  90
  107
  125
  143
  162
  182
  203
  225
  248
  272
  297
  323
  350
  379
  409
  440
  473
  508
  544
  583
  623
  665
  710
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
Earnings before tax, $m
  -20
  -12
  1
  14
  27
  40
  54
  69
  84
  101
  117
  136
  154
  173
  193
  214
  236
  259
  282
  307
  334
  361
  390
  420
  452
  485
  520
  557
  595
  636
  678
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  4
  7
  11
  15
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  90
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
  140
  150
  161
  172
  183
Net income, $m
  -21
  -12
  1
  10
  19
  29
  40
  50
  62
  73
  86
  99
  112
  126
  141
  156
  172
  189
  206
  224
  244
  264
  285
  307
  330
  354
  380
  406
  434
  464
  495

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  114
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  221
  119
  131
  144
  157
  171
  185
  201
  216
  233
  249
  267
  285
  304
  324
  345
  366
  389
  412
  436
  461
  488
  515
  544
  574
  605
  638
  673
  709
  746
  785
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  107
  119
  131
  144
  157
  171
  185
  201
  216
  233
  249
  267
  285
  304
  324
  345
  366
  389
  412
  436
  461
  488
  515
  544
  574
  605
  638
  673
  709
  746
  785
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.150
  2.143
  2.145
  2.146
  2.153
  2.152
  2.157
  2.144
  2.153
  2.146
  2.153
  2.150
  2.154
  2.151
  2.151
  2.148
  2.150
  2.147
  2.148
  2.149
  2.152
  2.148
  2.151
  2.149
  2.150
  2.152
  2.150
  2.149
  2.148
  2.150
  2.152
Average production assets, $m
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
Working capital, $m
  98
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
Total debt, $m
  0
  -28
  -17
  -6
  6
  19
  32
  45
  60
  74
  90
  105
  122
  139
  157
  175
  195
  215
  236
  257
  280
  304
  329
  355
  382
  410
  439
  470
  503
  537
  572
Total liabilities, $m
  135
  107
  118
  129
  141
  154
  167
  180
  195
  209
  225
  240
  257
  274
  292
  310
  330
  350
  371
  392
  415
  439
  464
  490
  517
  545
  574
  605
  638
  672
  707
Total equity, $m
  86
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  221
  119
  131
  143
  157
  171
  186
  200
  217
  232
  250
  267
  286
  304
  324
  344
  367
  389
  412
  436
  461
  488
  516
  544
  574
  606
  638
  672
  709
  747
  786
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -2.380
  -1.320
  -0.400
  0.400
  1.100
  1.720
  2.270
  2.760
  3.190
  3.590
  3.950
  4.270
  4.570
  4.840
  5.080
  5.310
  5.530
  5.720
  5.900
  6.070
  6.230
  6.380
  6.520
  6.650
  6.770
  6.880
  6.990
  7.090
  7.190
  7.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.262
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -21
  -12
  1
  10
  19
  29
  40
  50
  62
  73
  86
  99
  112
  126
  141
  156
  172
  189
  206
  224
  244
  264
  285
  307
  330
  354
  380
  406
  434
  464
  495
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Funds from operations, $m
  31
  -9
  4
  13
  23
  33
  43
  54
  66
  78
  90
  103
  117
  131
  146
  162
  178
  195
  213
  231
  251
  271
  293
  315
  339
  364
  390
  417
  446
  476
  508
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  19
  -7
  6
  15
  25
  35
  45
  57
  68
  80
  93
  106
  120
  134
  149
  165
  181
  198
  216
  235
  255
  275
  297
  320
  343
  368
  395
  422
  451
  482
  514
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -96
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
Free cash flow, $m
  -77
  -10
  3
  12
  21
  31
  42
  52
  64
  76
  88
  101
  114
  128
  143
  158
  174
  191
  208
  227
  246
  266
  287
  309
  332
  357
  382
  409
  438
  467
  499
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -28
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  8
  24
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -69
  13
  14
  23
  33
  44
  55
  66
  78
  90
  103
  116
  130
  145
  161
  177
  193
  211
  229
  248
  269
  290
  312
  335
  359
  385
  412
  440
  470
  501
  534
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -6
  -52
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  114
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  76
  13
  22
  32
  42
  53
  65
  76
  89
  101
  115
  129
  143
  159
  174
  191
  209
  227
  246
  266
  287
  309
  332
  356
  382
  409
  437
  466
  497
  530
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  73
  12
  19
  26
  33
  39
  44
  48
  51
  53
  54
  55
  54
  53
  51
  49
  45
  42
  38
  34
  30
  26
  22
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8
  49.8

A10 Networks, Inc. is a provider of software and hardware solutions. The Company's solutions enable its customers to secure and optimize the performance of their data center and cloud applications, and secure their users, applications and infrastructure from Internet, Web and network threats at scale. The Company offers a portfolio of hardware, software and cloud offerings. Its customers include cloud providers, Web-scale companies, service providers, government organizations and enterprises. The Company's portfolio consists of six application delivery and security products, including Application Delivery Controllers (ADC), Lightning Application Delivery Service (Lightning ADS), Carrier Grade Network Address Translation (CGN), Threat Protection System (TPS), SSL Insight (SSLi) and Convergent Firewall (CFW). The Company's products are available in a range of form factors, such as optimized hardware appliances, bare metal software, virtual appliances and cloud-native software.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  A10 Networks (ATEN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -22
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 5.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 35.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -10.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.5%
Return On Total Capital -25.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.1%
Return On Equity -25.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -50%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.9%
EBITDA Margin -5.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.8%
Operating Margin -8.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.5%
Net Profit Margin -9.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.2%
Effective Tax Rate -5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

ATEN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ATEN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $230 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by A10 Networks. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of A10 Networks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ATEN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ATEN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of A10 Networks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of A10 Networks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ATEN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 38.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $164 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ATEN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for A10 Networks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for A10 Networks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ATEN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ATEN are equal to 3.7%.

Life of production assets of 1.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in A10 Networks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ATEN is equal to -7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $86 million for A10 Networks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 71.484 million for A10 Networks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of A10 Networks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ A10, Aerohive Crater, Boosting Cisco, Arista, Juniper   [Jan-17-18 04:45PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Why A10 Networks Shares Plunged Today   [01:26PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 7 Stocks Move in Premarket Trade Wednesday   [11:17AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ A10 Networks shares drop as revenue forecast cut   [Jan-16-18 04:31PM  MarketWatch]
▶ 3 Tech Stocks Under $10 to Buy Now   [Dec-06-17 04:44PM  Zacks]
▶ 3 Tech Stocks With Great P/S Ratios To Buy Now   [Nov-13-17 05:26PM  Zacks]
▶ A10 Networks reports 3Q loss   [Oct-26-17 06:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is A10 Networks Inc (ATEN) Undervalued?   [02:30PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Tyson Foods and KB Home advance while Merck skids   [Sep-29-17 04:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why A10 Networks Shares Soared Today   [01:12PM  Motley Fool]
▶ A10 Surges Briefly After Raising Q3 Outlook   [Sep-28-17 05:34PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Why A10 Networks Fell 16% Last Month   [Aug-10-17 10:50AM  Motley Fool]
▶ A10 Networks to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conference   [Jul-31-17 04:03PM  Business Wire]
▶ Why A10 Networks Shares Soared Today   [Jul-28-17 12:45PM  Motley Fool]
▶ A10 Networks reports 2Q loss   [Jul-27-17 09:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 19th   [Jul-19-17 09:19AM  Zacks]
▶ Why A10 Networks Shares Got Crushed Today   [12:24PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [08:35AM  Briefing.com]
▶ After-hours buzz: CYBR, MYL & more   [Jul-13-17 05:56PM  CNBC]
▶ ETFs with exposure to A10 Networks, Inc. : July 5, 2017   [Jul-05-17 12:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to A10 Networks, Inc. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 12:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ A10 Networks Names New Chief Financial Officer   [May-19-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to A10 Networks, Inc. : May 9, 2017   [May-09-17 04:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why A10 Networks Stock Plunged Today   [12:47PM  Motley Fool]
▶ A10 Networks reports 1Q loss   [Apr-27-17 05:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why A10 Networks Popped 19% in February   [Mar-14-17 08:42PM  Motley Fool]
Financial statements of ATEN
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