Intrinsic value of Athersys, Inc. - ATHX

Previous Close

$1.66

  Intrinsic Value

$0.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$1.66

 
Intrinsic value

$0.15

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ATHX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  6
  10
  15
  21
  30
  42
  56
  73
  94
  119
  148
  181
  218
  260
  305
  355
  409
  467
  529
  595
  664
  737
  814
  894
  978
  1,066
  1,157
  1,252
  1,350
  1,453
Variable operating expenses, $m
  11
  17
  25
  37
  52
  71
  95
  125
  161
  203
  252
  308
  371
  441
  519
  604
  695
  794
  899
  1,011
  1,129
  1,253
  1,384
  1,520
  1,663
  1,812
  1,967
  2,128
  2,296
  2,470
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  11
  17
  25
  37
  52
  71
  95
  125
  161
  203
  252
  308
  371
  441
  519
  604
  695
  794
  899
  1,011
  1,129
  1,253
  1,384
  1,520
  1,663
  1,812
  1,967
  2,128
  2,296
  2,470
Operating income, $m
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -15
  -21
  -29
  -39
  -52
  -66
  -84
  -104
  -127
  -153
  -182
  -214
  -249
  -286
  -327
  -370
  -416
  -465
  -516
  -570
  -626
  -685
  -746
  -810
  -876
  -945
  -1,017
EBITDA, $m
  -4
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -18
  -24
  -32
  -43
  -55
  -69
  -86
  -105
  -126
  -150
  -177
  -206
  -237
  -271
  -307
  -345
  -385
  -427
  -472
  -519
  -567
  -618
  -671
  -726
  -783
  -842
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  10
  12
  16
  20
  24
  29
  35
  41
  48
  56
  64
  72
  81
  91
  101
  111
  123
  134
  146
  159
  172
  185
Earnings before tax, $m
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -17
  -24
  -33
  -44
  -59
  -76
  -96
  -119
  -147
  -177
  -211
  -249
  -290
  -335
  -383
  -434
  -488
  -546
  -607
  -671
  -737
  -807
  -880
  -956
  -1,035
  -1,117
  -1,202
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -17
  -24
  -33
  -44
  -59
  -76
  -96
  -119
  -147
  -177
  -211
  -249
  -290
  -335
  -383
  -434
  -488
  -546
  -607
  -671
  -737
  -807
  -880
  -956
  -1,035
  -1,117
  -1,202

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  23
  35
  53
  77
  108
  149
  200
  263
  338
  427
  531
  649
  782
  930
  1,094
  1,272
  1,466
  1,673
  1,895
  2,131
  2,380
  2,642
  2,917
  3,205
  3,506
  3,820
  4,147
  4,487
  4,840
  5,208
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  23
  35
  53
  77
  108
  149
  200
  263
  338
  427
  531
  649
  782
  930
  1,094
  1,272
  1,466
  1,673
  1,895
  2,131
  2,380
  2,642
  2,917
  3,205
  3,506
  3,820
  4,147
  4,487
  4,840
  5,208
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.261
  0.286
  0.283
  0.273
  0.278
  0.282
  0.280
  0.278
  0.278
  0.279
  0.279
  0.279
  0.279
  0.280
  0.279
  0.279
  0.279
  0.279
  0.279
  0.279
  0.279
  0.279
  0.279
  0.279
  0.279
  0.279
  0.279
  0.279
  0.279
  0.279
Average production assets, $m
  4
  6
  9
  13
  18
  25
  34
  44
  57
  72
  89
  109
  131
  156
  183
  213
  246
  281
  318
  357
  399
  443
  489
  537
  588
  641
  695
  752
  812
  873
Working capital, $m
  -13
  -20
  -30
  -44
  -62
  -85
  -115
  -151
  -194
  -245
  -304
  -371
  -448
  -533
  -626
  -728
  -839
  -958
  -1,085
  -1,220
  -1,363
  -1,513
  -1,670
  -1,835
  -2,007
  -2,187
  -2,374
  -2,569
  -2,771
  -2,981
Total debt, $m
  6
  15
  27
  44
  67
  96
  132
  177
  230
  294
  367
  451
  546
  651
  768
  894
  1,032
  1,180
  1,337
  1,505
  1,682
  1,868
  2,064
  2,269
  2,483
  2,706
  2,938
  3,180
  3,431
  3,692
Total liabilities, $m
  16
  25
  38
  55
  77
  106
  142
  187
  241
  304
  377
  461
  556
  661
  778
  905
  1,042
  1,190
  1,348
  1,515
  1,692
  1,879
  2,074
  2,279
  2,493
  2,716
  2,948
  3,190
  3,441
  3,703
Total equity, $m
  7
  10
  15
  22
  31
  43
  58
  76
  98
  123
  153
  187
  226
  269
  316
  368
  424
  484
  548
  616
  688
  764
  843
  926
  1,013
  1,104
  1,198
  1,297
  1,399
  1,505
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  23
  35
  53
  77
  108
  149
  200
  263
  339
  427
  530
  648
  782
  930
  1,094
  1,273
  1,466
  1,674
  1,896
  2,131
  2,380
  2,643
  2,917
  3,205
  3,506
  3,820
  4,146
  4,487
  4,840
  5,208
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.920
  1.460
  1.790
  2.000
  2.130
  2.220
  2.280
  2.330
  2.360
  2.380
  2.390
  2.410
  2.410
  2.420
  2.430
  2.430
  2.440
  2.440
  2.440
  2.440
  2.450
  2.450
  2.450
  2.450
  2.450
  2.450
  2.450
  2.450
  2.450
  2.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -17
  -24
  -33
  -44
  -59
  -76
  -96
  -119
  -147
  -177
  -211
  -249
  -290
  -335
  -383
  -434
  -488
  -546
  -607
  -671
  -737
  -807
  -880
  -956
  -1,035
  -1,117
  -1,202
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  31
  37
  43
  49
  56
  64
  71
  80
  89
  98
  107
  118
  128
  139
  150
  162
  175
Funds from operations, $m
  -4
  -6
  -9
  -14
  -20
  -28
  -38
  -50
  -64
  -82
  -102
  -125
  -151
  -180
  -212
  -247
  -285
  -326
  -370
  -417
  -466
  -518
  -573
  -630
  -690
  -752
  -817
  -884
  -955
  -1,028
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -29
  -36
  -43
  -51
  -59
  -68
  -76
  -85
  -94
  -102
  -111
  -119
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -202
  -210
Cash from operations, $m
  1
  1
  1
  0
  -2
  -4
  -8
  -14
  -21
  -31
  -43
  -57
  -75
  -95
  -118
  -145
  -175
  -208
  -243
  -282
  -324
  -368
  -415
  -465
  -517
  -572
  -630
  -690
  -752
  -817
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -31
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -64
  -71
  -80
  -89
  -98
  -107
  -118
  -128
  -139
  -150
  -162
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -31
  -38
  -44
  -51
  -58
  -67
  -75
  -84
  -93
  -104
  -113
  -124
  -135
  -146
  -157
  -171
  -183
  -196
  -209
  -224
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -6
  -10
  -15
  -22
  -31
  -43
  -57
  -74
  -95
  -119
  -146
  -177
  -212
  -250
  -291
  -337
  -385
  -437
  -492
  -550
  -611
  -675
  -743
  -813
  -886
  -962
  -1,041
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  6
  9
  12
  17
  22
  29
  36
  45
  54
  63
  73
  84
  95
  106
  116
  127
  137
  148
  158
  167
  177
  186
  196
  205
  214
  223
  232
  242
  251
  261
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  7
  11
  16
  24
  33
  45
  59
  77
  98
  122
  149
  181
  216
  254
  296
  342
  390
  443
  498
  556
  618
  683
  750
  821
  894
  971
  1,050
  1,133
  1,219
  1,309
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  13
  20
  28
  41
  55
  74
  95
  122
  152
  185
  222
  265
  311
  360
  412
  469
  527
  591
  656
  723
  795
  869
  946
  1,026
  1,108
  1,194
  1,282
  1,375
  1,470
  1,570
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  13
  18
  25
  35
  46
  59
  74
  90
  109
  128
  149
  170
  192
  213
  235
  257
  278
  299
  319
  339
  358
  377
  396
  414
  433
  451
  470
  489
  508
  528
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -24
  -33
  -45
  -59
  -77
  -98
  -122
  -149
  -181
  -216
  -254
  -296
  -342
  -390
  -443
  -498
  -556
  -618
  -683
  -750
  -821
  -894
  -971
  -1,050
  -1,133
  -1,219
  -1,309
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  25
  7
  9
  11
  13
  14
  14
  14
  11
  6
  -1
  -11
  -24
  -41
  -61
  -85
  -112
  -144
  -179
  -218
  -260
  -305
  -354
  -406
  -461
  -520
  -580
  -644
  -711
  -780
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  24
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  10
  8
  6
  3
  0
  -5
  -9
  -14
  -18
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -28
  -27
  -25
  -23
  -21
  -18
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  85.3
  73.1
  63.0
  54.5
  47.5
  41.6
  36.6
  32.3
  28.6
  25.4
  22.7
  20.3
  18.2
  16.4
  14.7
  13.3
  12.0
  10.9
  9.9
  9.0
  8.1
  7.4
  6.7
  6.1
  5.6
  5.1
  4.7
  4.3
  3.9
  3.6

Athersys, Inc. is an international biotechnology company that is focused primarily in the field of regenerative medicine. The Company's MultiStem cell therapy, an allogeneic stem cell product, is its lead platform product and is in later-stage clinical development. Its clinical development programs are focused on treating neurological conditions, cardiovascular disease, inflammatory and immune disorders, certain pulmonary conditions and other conditions where the standard of care is limited or inadequate for many patients. In the neurological area, the Company evaluated in a completed Phase II trial, the potential for MultiStem treatment of patients with a history of neurological damage from an ischemic stroke. The Company initiated a Phase II clinical study in the United States for the administration of MultiStem cell therapy to patients with a history of an acute myocardial infarction, or AMI.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Athersys, Inc. (ATHX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -9.6
Price to Sales 8.5
Price to Book 13.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -13.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -11.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 41.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -68.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -65.8%
Return On Total Capital -96.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -94%
Return On Equity -96.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -94%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -88.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -440.5%
Operating Margin -88.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -560%
Pre-Tax Margin -88.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -440.5%
Net Profit Margin -88.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -440.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ATHX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ATHX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Athersys, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Athersys, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ATHX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ATHX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Athersys, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Athersys, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ATHX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 175%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ATHX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Athersys, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Athersys, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ATHX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ATHX are equal to 60.1%.

Life of production assets of 3.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Athersys, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ATHX is equal to -205.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $23.376 million for Athersys, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 141.748 million for Athersys, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Athersys, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
BMY Bristol-Myers 47.56 78.06  str.buy
JNJ Johnson & John 140.09 107.87  sell
RTIX RTI Surgical H 4.20 0.33  str.sell
MRK Merck & Compan 82.78 44.01  sell
VCEL Vericel Corpor 16.04 34.45  str.buy

CONTACT US      

About X-FIN       Privacy policy       Terms of use      

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2019. All rigths reserved.