Intrinsic value of Atkore International Group - ATKR

Previous Close

$19.55

  Intrinsic Value

$47.72

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+144%

Previous close

$19.55

 
Intrinsic value

$47.72

 
Up/down potential

+144%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ATKR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.20
  23.18
  21.36
  19.73
  18.25
  16.93
  15.74
  14.66
  13.70
  12.83
  12.04
  11.34
  10.71
  10.13
  9.62
  9.16
  8.74
  8.37
  8.03
  7.73
  7.46
  7.21
  6.99
  6.79
  6.61
  6.45
  6.31
  6.17
  6.06
  5.95
Revenue, $m
  1,883
  2,319
  2,815
  3,370
  3,985
  4,660
  5,393
  6,184
  7,031
  7,932
  8,888
  9,896
  10,955
  12,065
  13,226
  14,437
  15,700
  17,014
  18,380
  19,801
  21,277
  22,811
  24,405
  26,062
  27,786
  29,578
  31,443
  33,384
  35,406
  37,513
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,714
  2,100
  2,538
  3,029
  3,573
  4,170
  4,818
  5,517
  6,266
  7,064
  7,859
  8,751
  9,687
  10,669
  11,696
  12,767
  13,883
  15,045
  16,253
  17,509
  18,815
  20,171
  21,581
  23,047
  24,570
  26,155
  27,804
  29,521
  31,309
  33,173
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,714
  2,100
  2,538
  3,029
  3,573
  4,170
  4,818
  5,517
  6,266
  7,064
  7,859
  8,751
  9,687
  10,669
  11,696
  12,767
  13,883
  15,045
  16,253
  17,509
  18,815
  20,171
  21,581
  23,047
  24,570
  26,155
  27,804
  29,521
  31,309
  33,173
Operating income, $m
  169
  219
  277
  341
  412
  490
  575
  666
  764
  869
  1,028
  1,145
  1,268
  1,396
  1,530
  1,671
  1,817
  1,969
  2,127
  2,291
  2,462
  2,640
  2,824
  3,016
  3,215
  3,423
  3,638
  3,863
  4,097
  4,341
EBITDA, $m
  263
  324
  394
  471
  557
  652
  754
  865
  983
  1,109
  1,243
  1,384
  1,532
  1,687
  1,850
  2,019
  2,196
  2,379
  2,570
  2,769
  2,976
  3,190
  3,413
  3,645
  3,886
  4,137
  4,397
  4,669
  4,952
  5,246
Interest expense (income), $m
  26
  31
  43
  56
  71
  88
  107
  128
  150
  175
  201
  228
  258
  288
  321
  355
  391
  428
  466
  507
  549
  592
  637
  684
  733
  784
  837
  892
  949
  1,009
  1,071
Earnings before tax, $m
  138
  176
  220
  269
  324
  383
  447
  516
  590
  668
  800
  888
  979
  1,075
  1,175
  1,280
  1,389
  1,502
  1,620
  1,743
  1,870
  2,002
  2,140
  2,282
  2,431
  2,586
  2,746
  2,914
  3,088
  3,270
Tax expense, $m
  37
  48
  60
  73
  87
  103
  121
  139
  159
  180
  216
  240
  264
  290
  317
  346
  375
  406
  437
  471
  505
  541
  578
  616
  656
  698
  742
  787
  834
  883
Net income, $m
  100
  129
  161
  197
  236
  279
  326
  377
  431
  488
  584
  648
  715
  785
  858
  934
  1,014
  1,097
  1,183
  1,272
  1,365
  1,462
  1,562
  1,666
  1,775
  1,887
  2,005
  2,127
  2,254
  2,387

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,521
  1,873
  2,274
  2,722
  3,219
  3,764
  4,356
  4,995
  5,679
  6,408
  7,179
  7,993
  8,849
  9,746
  10,683
  11,662
  12,681
  13,743
  14,847
  15,994
  17,186
  18,426
  19,713
  21,052
  22,444
  23,892
  25,398
  26,966
  28,600
  30,302
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,521
  1,873
  2,274
  2,722
  3,219
  3,764
  4,356
  4,995
  5,679
  6,408
  7,179
  7,993
  8,849
  9,746
  10,683
  11,662
  12,681
  13,743
  14,847
  15,994
  17,186
  18,426
  19,713
  21,052
  22,444
  23,892
  25,398
  26,966
  28,600
  30,302
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
  1.238
Average production assets, $m
  527
  649
  788
  944
  1,116
  1,305
  1,510
  1,731
  1,969
  2,221
  2,489
  2,771
  3,067
  3,378
  3,703
  4,042
  4,396
  4,764
  5,146
  5,544
  5,958
  6,387
  6,833
  7,297
  7,780
  8,282
  8,804
  9,348
  9,914
  10,504
Working capital, $m
  316
  390
  473
  566
  670
  783
  906
  1,039
  1,181
  1,333
  1,493
  1,662
  1,840
  2,027
  2,222
  2,425
  2,638
  2,858
  3,088
  3,326
  3,575
  3,832
  4,100
  4,378
  4,668
  4,969
  5,282
  5,609
  5,948
  6,302
Total debt, $m
  791
  1,039
  1,320
  1,636
  1,985
  2,368
  2,784
  3,233
  3,714
  4,226
  4,769
  5,341
  5,943
  6,573
  7,232
  7,920
  8,637
  9,383
  10,159
  10,966
  11,804
  12,675
  13,580
  14,521
  15,500
  16,518
  17,577
  18,679
  19,827
  21,024
Total liabilities, $m
  1,069
  1,317
  1,598
  1,914
  2,263
  2,646
  3,062
  3,512
  3,992
  4,504
  5,047
  5,619
  6,221
  6,851
  7,510
  8,198
  8,915
  9,661
  10,437
  11,244
  12,082
  12,953
  13,859
  14,800
  15,778
  16,796
  17,855
  18,957
  20,106
  21,302
Total equity, $m
  452
  556
  675
  808
  956
  1,118
  1,294
  1,484
  1,687
  1,903
  2,132
  2,374
  2,628
  2,894
  3,173
  3,464
  3,766
  4,082
  4,409
  4,750
  5,104
  5,472
  5,855
  6,252
  6,666
  7,096
  7,543
  8,009
  8,494
  9,000
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,521
  1,873
  2,273
  2,722
  3,219
  3,764
  4,356
  4,996
  5,679
  6,407
  7,179
  7,993
  8,849
  9,745
  10,683
  11,662
  12,681
  13,743
  14,846
  15,994
  17,186
  18,425
  19,714
  21,052
  22,444
  23,892
  25,398
  26,966
  28,600
  30,302
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.750
  1.870
  1.960
  2.020
  2.080
  2.120
  2.150
  2.180
  2.200
  2.220
  2.240
  2.250
  2.260
  2.270
  2.280
  2.290
  2.290
  2.300
  2.300
  2.310
  2.310
  2.320
  2.320
  2.320
  2.330
  2.330
  2.330
  2.330
  2.330
  2.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  100
  129
  161
  197
  236
  279
  326
  377
  431
  488
  584
  648
  715
  785
  858
  934
  1,014
  1,097
  1,183
  1,272
  1,365
  1,462
  1,562
  1,666
  1,775
  1,887
  2,005
  2,127
  2,254
  2,387
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  95
  105
  117
  131
  145
  162
  179
  198
  219
  241
  215
  239
  264
  291
  319
  348
  379
  411
  444
  478
  514
  551
  589
  629
  671
  714
  759
  806
  855
  905
Funds from operations, $m
  195
  234
  278
  327
  382
  441
  506
  575
  649
  728
  799
  887
  979
  1,076
  1,177
  1,283
  1,393
  1,507
  1,626
  1,750
  1,879
  2,012
  2,151
  2,295
  2,445
  2,601
  2,764
  2,933
  3,109
  3,293
Change in working capital, $m
  64
  73
  83
  93
  103
  113
  123
  133
  142
  151
  160
  169
  178
  187
  195
  204
  212
  221
  230
  239
  248
  258
  268
  278
  289
  301
  313
  326
  340
  354
Cash from operations, $m
  131
  161
  195
  234
  278
  328
  382
  442
  507
  577
  638
  717
  801
  890
  982
  1,079
  1,181
  1,287
  1,397
  1,511
  1,631
  1,754
  1,883
  2,017
  2,156
  2,300
  2,451
  2,607
  2,769
  2,939
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -36
  -45
  -56
  -68
  -81
  -96
  -112
  -130
  -149
  -170
  -191
  -215
  -239
  -264
  -291
  -319
  -348
  -379
  -411
  -444
  -478
  -514
  -551
  -589
  -629
  -671
  -714
  -759
  -806
  -855
New CAPEX, $m
  -106
  -122
  -139
  -155
  -172
  -189
  -205
  -221
  -237
  -252
  -267
  -282
  -297
  -311
  -325
  -339
  -353
  -368
  -383
  -398
  -413
  -430
  -446
  -464
  -482
  -502
  -522
  -544
  -566
  -590
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -142
  -167
  -195
  -223
  -253
  -285
  -317
  -351
  -386
  -422
  -458
  -497
  -536
  -575
  -616
  -658
  -701
  -747
  -794
  -842
  -891
  -944
  -997
  -1,053
  -1,111
  -1,173
  -1,236
  -1,303
  -1,372
  -1,445
Free cash flow, $m
  -11
  -7
  0
  11
  25
  43
  65
  91
  121
  155
  179
  221
  266
  314
  366
  421
  479
  540
  604
  670
  739
  811
  886
  964
  1,044
  1,128
  1,214
  1,304
  1,397
  1,494
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  215
  248
  281
  315
  349
  383
  416
  449
  481
  512
  542
  572
  602
  630
  659
  688
  717
  746
  776
  807
  838
  871
  905
  941
  978
  1,018
  1,059
  1,102
  1,148
  1,197
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  215
  248
  281
  315
  349
  383
  416
  449
  481
  512
  542
  572
  602
  630
  659
  688
  717
  746
  776
  807
  838
  871
  905
  941
  978
  1,018
  1,059
  1,102
  1,148
  1,197
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  204
  241
  281
  326
  374
  426
  481
  540
  602
  667
  722
  793
  867
  945
  1,025
  1,109
  1,196
  1,286
  1,379
  1,477
  1,578
  1,682
  1,791
  1,905
  2,023
  2,146
  2,273
  2,407
  2,546
  2,691
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -91
  -105
  -119
  -133
  -148
  -162
  -176
  -190
  -203
  -216
  -229
  -242
  -254
  -266
  -278
  -291
  -303
  -315
  -328
  -341
  -354
  -368
  -382
  -398
  -413
  -430
  -447
  -466
  -485
  -506
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  113
  136
  163
  193
  226
  264
  305
  350
  398
  450
  493
  551
  613
  678
  747
  818
  893
  971
  1,052
  1,136
  1,223
  1,314
  1,409
  1,507
  1,609
  1,716
  1,826
  1,941
  2,061
  2,185
Discount rate, %
  8.00
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  105
  116
  126
  135
  142
  147
  150
  149
  146
  140
  128
  118
  107
  95
  82
  70
  58
  47
  37
  29
  21
  16
  11
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Atkore International Group Inc. is a manufacturer of electrical raceway products. The Company's products are primarily offered for non-residential construction and renovation markets, and mechanical products and solutions (MP&S) for the construction and industrial markets. The Company operates in two segments: Electrical Raceway and MP&S. Through the electrical raceway segment, it manufactures products that deploy, isolate and protect a structure's electrical circuitry from the original power source to the final outlet. The Company's electrical raceway segment products include electrical conduit, armored cable, cable trays, mounting systems and fittings. Through the MP&S segment, it provides products and services that frame, support and secure component parts in a range of structures, equipment and systems in electrical, industrial and construction applications. The Company's MP&S segment products include metal framing products and in-line galvanized mechanical tube.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Atkore International Group (ATKR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.6
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 47.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 12
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 158.4%
Total Debt to Equity 159.6%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Total Capital 9.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Equity 27.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
EBITDA Margin 13.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Operating Margin 10.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 32.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

ATKR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ATKR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1503.934 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Atkore International Group. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Atkore International Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ATKR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8%, whose default value for ATKR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Atkore International Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Atkore International Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ATKR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ATKR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Atkore International Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Atkore International Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ATKR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ATKR are equal to 28%.

Life of production assets of 11.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Atkore International Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ATKR is equal to 16.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $360.871 million for Atkore International Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46.037 million for Atkore International Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Atkore International Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for October 10th   [Oct-10-18 05:23AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for July 10th   [Jul-10-18 04:55AM  Zacks]
▶ Atkore International Group Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [May-08-18 06:15AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Atkore Names Michael V. Schrock to Board of Directors   [May-04-18 05:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for April 4th   [Apr-04-18 10:40AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for April 3rd   [Apr-03-18 07:13AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for March 27th   [Mar-27-18 08:27AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for December 7th   [Dec-07-17 09:01AM  Zacks]
▶ Atkore International Group Inc. Acquires Flexicon Limited   [Sep-05-17 05:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Atkore International Inc. Acquires Marco Cable Management   [May-22-17 02:43PM  Business Wire]

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