Intrinsic value of ATN International - ATNI

Previous Close

$58.52

  Intrinsic Value

$68.66

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+17%

Previous close

$58.52

 
Intrinsic value

$68.66

 
Up/down potential

+17%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ATNI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  28.73
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  457
  466
  477
  489
  503
  518
  535
  553
  573
  594
  617
  641
  667
  695
  724
  756
  789
  824
  861
  900
  941
  985
  1,031
  1,080
  1,131
  1,184
  1,241
  1,301
  1,364
  1,430
  1,499
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  364
  372
  382
  392
  404
  417
  431
  446
  462
  480
  492
  512
  533
  556
  580
  605
  632
  660
  691
  722
  756
  791
  828
  867
  909
  952
  998
  1,046
  1,097
  1,150
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  407
  364
  372
  382
  392
  404
  417
  431
  446
  462
  480
  492
  512
  533
  556
  580
  605
  632
  660
  691
  722
  756
  791
  828
  867
  909
  952
  998
  1,046
  1,097
  1,150
Operating income, $m
  50
  102
  105
  108
  111
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  200
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  317
  333
  349
EBITDA, $m
  126
  180
  184
  188
  194
  200
  206
  213
  221
  229
  238
  247
  257
  268
  279
  291
  304
  317
  332
  347
  363
  379
  397
  416
  435
  456
  478
  501
  525
  551
  577
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
Earnings before tax, $m
  45
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  113
  116
  120
  125
  136
  141
  146
  151
  157
  164
  170
  177
  185
  192
  201
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  284
  297
Tax expense, $m
  21
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
Net income, $m
  12
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  99
  103
  106
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  135
  140
  146
  153
  159
  166
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  279
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,198
  938
  959
  984
  1,012
  1,042
  1,076
  1,113
  1,152
  1,195
  1,241
  1,290
  1,343
  1,398
  1,458
  1,520
  1,587
  1,658
  1,732
  1,811
  1,894
  1,982
  2,075
  2,172
  2,275
  2,383
  2,497
  2,617
  2,744
  2,877
  3,016
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  919
  938
  959
  984
  1,012
  1,042
  1,076
  1,113
  1,152
  1,195
  1,241
  1,290
  1,343
  1,398
  1,458
  1,520
  1,587
  1,658
  1,732
  1,811
  1,894
  1,982
  2,075
  2,172
  2,275
  2,383
  2,497
  2,617
  2,744
  2,877
  3,016
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
Average production assets, $m
  564
  575
  588
  604
  621
  639
  660
  682
  707
  733
  761
  791
  823
  858
  894
  932
  973
  1,017
  1,062
  1,111
  1,162
  1,216
  1,272
  1,332
  1,395
  1,462
  1,532
  1,605
  1,683
  1,764
  1,850
Working capital, $m
  217
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
Total debt, $m
  157
  156
  168
  181
  197
  214
  232
  252
  274
  298
  324
  351
  380
  411
  443
  478
  515
  554
  596
  639
  685
  734
  785
  839
  896
  956
  1,020
  1,086
  1,156
  1,230
  1,307
Total liabilities, $m
  521
  520
  532
  545
  561
  578
  596
  616
  638
  662
  688
  715
  744
  775
  807
  842
  879
  918
  960
  1,003
  1,049
  1,098
  1,149
  1,203
  1,260
  1,320
  1,384
  1,450
  1,520
  1,594
  1,671
Total equity, $m
  677
  418
  428
  439
  451
  465
  480
  496
  514
  533
  554
  575
  599
  624
  650
  678
  708
  739
  773
  808
  845
  884
  925
  969
  1,015
  1,063
  1,114
  1,167
  1,224
  1,283
  1,345
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,198
  938
  960
  984
  1,012
  1,043
  1,076
  1,112
  1,152
  1,195
  1,242
  1,290
  1,343
  1,399
  1,457
  1,520
  1,587
  1,657
  1,733
  1,811
  1,894
  1,982
  2,074
  2,172
  2,275
  2,383
  2,498
  2,617
  2,744
  2,877
  3,016
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.232
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.510
  0.530
  0.560
  0.580
  0.610
  0.630
  0.660
  0.680
  0.710
  0.730
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.830
  0.850
  0.870
  0.880
  0.900
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.960
  0.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.433
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  99
  103
  106
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  135
  140
  146
  153
  159
  166
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  97
  100
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  228
Funds from operations, $m
  138
  147
  151
  154
  158
  163
  168
  173
  179
  185
  191
  197
  204
  212
  221
  230
  240
  250
  260
  272
  284
  296
  310
  324
  339
  354
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
Change in working capital, $m
  26
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  112
  148
  152
  156
  160
  164
  169
  175
  181
  187
  194
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243
  254
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  394
  413
  432
  453
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -70
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
New CAPEX, $m
  -135
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -309
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -172
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -263
  -275
  -289
  -304
Free cash flow, $m
  -197
  68
  68
  68
  68
  69
  70
  71
  72
  74
  75
  75
  77
  79
  82
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  92
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  77
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  96
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  77
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -101
  78
  79
  81
  84
  86
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  103
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  135
  140
  146
  153
  159
  166
  174
  181
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  3
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  267
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  337
  70
  70
  71
  72
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
  81
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  323
  64
  61
  59
  56
  53
  51
  48
  45
  42
  38
  35
  33
  30
  27
  24
  21
  19
  16
  14
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ATN International, Inc. (ATN), formerly Atlantic Tele-Network, Inc., is a holding company. The Company's segments include U.S. Telecom, International Telecom and Renewable Energy. In the United States, it provides wholesale wireless voice and data roaming services in rural markets to national, regional, local and selected international wireless carriers. Its wholesale networks are located principally in the western United States. It provides wireless voice and data service to retail and business customers in Bermuda under the One name, in Guyana under the GTT name and in the United States Virgin Islands under the Innovative and Choice brand names. The Company offers voice services that include local exchange, regional and long distance calling and voice messaging services in Bermuda, Guyana, the United States Virgin Islands, and in other smaller markets in the Caribbean and the United States. It offers services, which include Wireless, Wireline and Renewable Energy.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ATN International (ATNI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 78.7
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -41.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 28.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 107.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 23
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 21.4%
Total Debt to Equity 23.2%
Interest Coverage 12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Equity 1.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.7%
EBITDA Margin 27.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
Operating Margin 10.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Net Profit Margin 2.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Effective Tax Rate 46.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.7%
Payout Ratio 175%

ATNI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ATNI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $457 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ATN International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ATN International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ATNI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ATNI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ATN International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ATN International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ATNI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ATNI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for ATN International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ATN International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ATNI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ATNI are equal to 123.4%.

Life of production assets of 8.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ATN International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ATNI is equal to -10.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $677 million for ATN International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.228 million for ATN International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ATN International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ATN Board Declares Quarterly Dividend   [10:20AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Atlantic Tele-Network reports 3Q loss   [Oct-30-17 06:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ ATN Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [06:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ATN Sets Date To Report Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Oct-24-17 02:11PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Atlantic Tele-Network posts 2Q profit   [12:44AM  Associated Press]
▶ Atlantic Tele-Network posts 2Q profit   [Jul-27-17 07:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ ATN Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [05:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ATN Sets Date To Report Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Jul-18-17 05:07PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ATN Board Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-16-17 01:58PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CORRECTION -- ATN Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [Apr-26-17 08:07PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Atlantic Tele-Network posts 1Q profit   [05:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ ATN Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ATN Sets Date To Report First Quarter 2017 Results   [Apr-17-17 03:13PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ATN Board Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-13-17 09:53AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Atlantic Tele-Network posts 4Q profit   [Feb-22-17 06:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Betting On James River Group Holdings Ltd (JRVR)   [Dec-12-16 05:00PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ ATN Board Declares Quarterly Dividend   [03:40PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ATN Reports Second Quarter and Six Month 2016 Results   [Jul-27-16 05:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ATN Sets Date To Report Second Quarter 2016 Results   [Jul-15-16 10:57AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ATN Board Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-22-16 01:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of ATNI
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