Intrinsic value of Atmos Energy - ATO

Previous Close

$95.39

  Intrinsic Value

$11.37

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$95.39

 
Intrinsic value

$11.37

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ATO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 10.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  2,947
  3,143
  3,345
  3,557
  3,776
  4,005
  4,244
  4,493
  4,752
  5,023
  5,306
  5,601
  5,909
  6,232
  6,569
  6,922
  7,291
  7,678
  8,082
  8,506
  8,950
  9,415
  9,902
  10,413
  10,949
  11,511
  12,100
  12,717
  13,365
  14,045
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,153
  2,290
  2,433
  2,582
  2,737
  2,899
  3,067
  3,243
  3,426
  3,617
  3,743
  3,952
  4,169
  4,397
  4,635
  4,884
  5,144
  5,417
  5,702
  6,001
  6,315
  6,643
  6,987
  7,347
  7,725
  8,121
  8,537
  8,972
  9,430
  9,909
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,153
  2,290
  2,433
  2,582
  2,737
  2,899
  3,067
  3,243
  3,426
  3,617
  3,743
  3,952
  4,169
  4,397
  4,635
  4,884
  5,144
  5,417
  5,702
  6,001
  6,315
  6,643
  6,987
  7,347
  7,725
  8,121
  8,537
  8,972
  9,430
  9,909
Operating income, $m
  795
  852
  912
  974
  1,039
  1,106
  1,177
  1,250
  1,326
  1,406
  1,562
  1,649
  1,740
  1,835
  1,934
  2,038
  2,147
  2,261
  2,380
  2,505
  2,635
  2,772
  2,916
  3,066
  3,224
  3,389
  3,563
  3,745
  3,935
  4,136
EBITDA, $m
  1,196
  1,275
  1,358
  1,443
  1,533
  1,625
  1,722
  1,823
  1,928
  2,038
  2,153
  2,273
  2,398
  2,529
  2,666
  2,809
  2,959
  3,116
  3,280
  3,452
  3,632
  3,821
  4,018
  4,226
  4,443
  4,671
  4,910
  5,161
  5,424
  5,699
Interest expense (income), $m
  157
  190
  214
  240
  268
  296
  325
  356
  388
  421
  456
  492
  530
  569
  611
  654
  699
  746
  796
  847
  902
  958
  1,018
  1,080
  1,145
  1,214
  1,285
  1,360
  1,439
  1,522
  1,609
Earnings before tax, $m
  605
  638
  672
  707
  743
  781
  821
  862
  905
  950
  1,070
  1,119
  1,171
  1,224
  1,280
  1,339
  1,401
  1,465
  1,532
  1,603
  1,677
  1,755
  1,836
  1,921
  2,010
  2,104
  2,202
  2,305
  2,413
  2,527
Tax expense, $m
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  244
  257
  289
  302
  316
  331
  346
  362
  378
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  543
  568
  595
  622
  652
  682
Net income, $m
  442
  466
  490
  516
  542
  570
  599
  629
  661
  694
  781
  817
  855
  894
  935
  978
  1,022
  1,069
  1,119
  1,170
  1,224
  1,281
  1,340
  1,402
  1,468
  1,536
  1,608
  1,683
  1,762
  1,845

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  11,468
  12,228
  13,017
  13,839
  14,694
  15,585
  16,514
  17,482
  18,491
  19,545
  20,644
  21,793
  22,994
  24,249
  25,561
  26,934
  28,370
  29,874
  31,448
  33,097
  34,824
  36,634
  38,531
  40,519
  42,603
  44,788
  47,080
  49,483
  52,004
  54,648
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  11,468
  12,228
  13,017
  13,839
  14,694
  15,585
  16,514
  17,482
  18,491
  19,545
  20,644
  21,793
  22,994
  24,249
  25,561
  26,934
  28,370
  29,874
  31,448
  33,097
  34,824
  36,634
  38,531
  40,519
  42,603
  44,788
  47,080
  49,483
  52,004
  54,648
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
Average production assets, $m
  9,747
  10,392
  11,063
  11,762
  12,489
  13,246
  14,035
  14,858
  15,716
  16,611
  17,546
  18,522
  19,542
  20,609
  21,724
  22,891
  24,112
  25,390
  26,728
  28,129
  29,597
  31,135
  32,747
  34,437
  36,208
  38,066
  40,013
  42,056
  44,198
  46,445
Working capital, $m
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -267
Total debt, $m
  3,969
  4,453
  4,956
  5,479
  6,024
  6,592
  7,183
  7,800
  8,443
  9,114
  9,814
  10,546
  11,311
  12,110
  12,946
  13,821
  14,736
  15,694
  16,696
  17,747
  18,847
  20,000
  21,208
  22,474
  23,802
  25,194
  26,654
  28,185
  29,790
  31,475
Total liabilities, $m
  7,305
  7,789
  8,292
  8,815
  9,360
  9,928
  10,519
  11,136
  11,779
  12,450
  13,151
  13,882
  14,647
  15,446
  16,282
  17,157
  18,072
  19,030
  20,033
  21,083
  22,183
  23,336
  24,544
  25,811
  27,138
  28,530
  29,990
  31,521
  33,126
  34,811
Total equity, $m
  4,163
  4,439
  4,725
  5,024
  5,334
  5,657
  5,994
  6,346
  6,712
  7,095
  7,494
  7,911
  8,347
  8,802
  9,279
  9,777
  10,298
  10,844
  11,416
  12,014
  12,641
  13,298
  13,987
  14,708
  15,465
  16,258
  17,090
  17,962
  18,877
  19,837
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  11,468
  12,228
  13,017
  13,839
  14,694
  15,585
  16,513
  17,482
  18,491
  19,545
  20,645
  21,793
  22,994
  24,248
  25,561
  26,934
  28,370
  29,874
  31,449
  33,097
  34,824
  36,634
  38,531
  40,519
  42,603
  44,788
  47,080
  49,483
  52,003
  54,648
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.950
  1.000
  1.050
  1.090
  1.130
  1.170
  1.200
  1.230
  1.260
  1.280
  1.310
  1.330
  1.360
  1.380
  1.400
  1.410
  1.430
  1.450
  1.460
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.520
  1.530
  1.540
  1.550
  1.560
  1.570
  1.580
  1.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  442
  466
  490
  516
  542
  570
  599
  629
  661
  694
  781
  817
  855
  894
  935
  978
  1,022
  1,069
  1,119
  1,170
  1,224
  1,281
  1,340
  1,402
  1,468
  1,536
  1,608
  1,683
  1,762
  1,845
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  401
  423
  446
  469
  494
  519
  546
  573
  602
  632
  591
  624
  658
  694
  731
  771
  812
  855
  900
  947
  997
  1,048
  1,103
  1,159
  1,219
  1,282
  1,347
  1,416
  1,488
  1,564
Funds from operations, $m
  843
  889
  936
  985
  1,036
  1,089
  1,145
  1,203
  1,263
  1,326
  1,372
  1,441
  1,513
  1,588
  1,666
  1,748
  1,834
  1,924
  2,019
  2,117
  2,221
  2,329
  2,443
  2,562
  2,687
  2,818
  2,955
  3,099
  3,250
  3,408
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
Cash from operations, $m
  846
  892
  940
  989
  1,040
  1,094
  1,149
  1,207
  1,268
  1,331
  1,377
  1,446
  1,518
  1,594
  1,673
  1,755
  1,841
  1,932
  2,026
  2,125
  2,229
  2,338
  2,452
  2,572
  2,697
  2,828
  2,966
  3,111
  3,262
  3,421
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -307
  -328
  -350
  -373
  -396
  -420
  -446
  -473
  -500
  -529
  -559
  -591
  -624
  -658
  -694
  -731
  -771
  -812
  -855
  -900
  -947
  -997
  -1,048
  -1,103
  -1,159
  -1,219
  -1,282
  -1,347
  -1,416
  -1,488
New CAPEX, $m
  -619
  -645
  -671
  -698
  -727
  -757
  -789
  -823
  -858
  -895
  -935
  -976
  -1,020
  -1,067
  -1,115
  -1,167
  -1,221
  -1,278
  -1,338
  -1,401
  -1,468
  -1,538
  -1,612
  -1,690
  -1,771
  -1,857
  -1,948
  -2,043
  -2,142
  -2,247
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -926
  -973
  -1,021
  -1,071
  -1,123
  -1,177
  -1,235
  -1,296
  -1,358
  -1,424
  -1,494
  -1,567
  -1,644
  -1,725
  -1,809
  -1,898
  -1,992
  -2,090
  -2,193
  -2,301
  -2,415
  -2,535
  -2,660
  -2,793
  -2,930
  -3,076
  -3,230
  -3,390
  -3,558
  -3,735
Free cash flow, $m
  -80
  -81
  -81
  -82
  -83
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -93
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -208
  -221
  -234
  -248
  -263
  -279
  -296
  -314
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  454
  484
  503
  523
  545
  568
  591
  617
  643
  671
  701
  732
  765
  799
  836
  874
  915
  958
  1,003
  1,050
  1,100
  1,153
  1,208
  1,266
  1,328
  1,392
  1,460
  1,531
  1,606
  1,684
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  454
  484
  503
  523
  545
  568
  591
  617
  643
  671
  701
  732
  765
  799
  836
  874
  915
  958
  1,003
  1,050
  1,100
  1,153
  1,208
  1,266
  1,328
  1,392
  1,460
  1,531
  1,606
  1,684
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  375
  403
  422
  441
  462
  483
  506
  529
  553
  578
  584
  611
  639
  669
  699
  731
  765
  800
  836
  874
  914
  956
  1,000
  1,046
  1,094
  1,144
  1,197
  1,252
  1,310
  1,370
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -264
  -276
  -287
  -298
  -311
  -323
  -337
  -351
  -366
  -382
  -399
  -417
  -436
  -456
  -476
  -498
  -521
  -546
  -572
  -599
  -627
  -657
  -688
  -722
  -757
  -793
  -832
  -872
  -915
  -960
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  110
  127
  135
  143
  152
  160
  169
  177
  186
  195
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  233
  243
  254
  265
  276
  287
  299
  311
  324
  337
  351
  365
  379
  395
  410
Discount rate, %
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.51
  9.99
  10.49
  11.01
  11.57
  12.14
  12.75
  13.39
  14.06
  14.76
  15.50
  16.27
  17.09
  17.94
  18.84
  19.78
  20.77
  21.81
  22.90
  24.04
  25.25
  26.51
  27.83
  29.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  103
  110
  108
  104
  100
  95
  89
  83
  76
  69
  55
  49
  43
  37
  31
  26
  21
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Atmos Energy Corporation is a fully-regulated, natural-gas-only distributor engaged primarily in the regulated natural gas distribution and pipeline businesses, as well as other nonregulated natural gas businesses. It operates through three segments: regulated distribution segment, which includes its regulated distribution and related sales operations; regulated pipeline segment, which includes pipeline and storage operations of its Atmos Pipeline-Texas Division, and nonregulated segment, which includes its nonregulated natural gas management, nonregulated natural gas transmission, storage and other services. Its nonregulated businesses provide natural gas management, transportation and storage services to local gas distribution companies, including certain of its natural gas distribution divisions and industrial customers in the Midwest and Southeast. It also manages its natural gas pipeline and storage assets, including its intrastate natural gas pipeline systems in Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Atmos Energy (ATO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.6
Price to Sales 3.7
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -37.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 78.7%
Total Debt to Equity 90.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 5.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Equity 10.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 39.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37%
Operating Margin 26.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.3%
Net Profit Margin 14.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 36.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37%
Payout Ratio 48.5%

ATO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ATO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2759.735 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Atmos Energy. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Atmos Energy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ATO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.1%, whose default value for ATO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Atmos Energy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Atmos Energy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ATO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ATO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Atmos Energy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Atmos Energy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ATO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ATO are equal to 330.7%.

Life of production assets of 29.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Atmos Energy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ATO is equal to -1.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3898.666 million for Atmos Energy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 111.201 million for Atmos Energy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Atmos Energy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $10.6 billion.

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