Intrinsic value of Antares Pharma, Inc. - ATRS

Previous Close

$2.96

  Intrinsic Value

$0.04

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$2.96

 
Intrinsic value

$0.04

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ATRS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  34.10
  31.19
  28.57
  26.21
  24.09
  22.18
  20.46
  18.92
  17.53
  16.27
  15.15
  14.13
  13.22
  12.40
  11.66
  10.99
  10.39
  9.85
  9.37
  8.93
  8.54
  8.18
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
Revenue, $m
  86
  113
  145
  183
  227
  277
  334
  397
  466
  542
  624
  713
  807
  907
  1,013
  1,124
  1,241
  1,363
  1,491
  1,624
  1,762
  1,907
  2,057
  2,213
  2,375
  2,543
  2,718
  2,900
  3,089
  3,286
Variable operating expenses, $m
  109
  143
  184
  231
  287
  350
  421
  501
  588
  683
  785
  896
  1,015
  1,141
  1,273
  1,413
  1,560
  1,714
  1,875
  2,042
  2,216
  2,398
  2,586
  2,782
  2,986
  3,198
  3,418
  3,647
  3,884
  4,132
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  109
  143
  184
  231
  287
  350
  421
  501
  588
  683
  785
  896
  1,015
  1,141
  1,273
  1,413
  1,560
  1,714
  1,875
  2,042
  2,216
  2,398
  2,586
  2,782
  2,986
  3,198
  3,418
  3,647
  3,884
  4,132
Operating income, $m
  -24
  -30
  -39
  -49
  -60
  -73
  -87
  -104
  -122
  -141
  -161
  -184
  -208
  -234
  -261
  -289
  -320
  -351
  -384
  -418
  -454
  -491
  -530
  -570
  -612
  -655
  -700
  -747
  -796
  -846
EBITDA, $m
  -19
  -24
  -31
  -40
  -49
  -60
  -73
  -86
  -101
  -118
  -136
  -155
  -176
  -197
  -220
  -245
  -270
  -297
  -324
  -353
  -383
  -415
  -447
  -481
  -517
  -553
  -591
  -631
  -672
  -715
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  3
  4
  6
  9
  12
  15
  19
  24
  28
  34
  40
  46
  53
  60
  68
  76
  85
  94
  103
  113
  123
  134
  145
  157
  169
  181
  194
  208
  222
  237
Earnings before tax, $m
  -26
  -35
  -45
  -57
  -72
  -88
  -107
  -127
  -150
  -175
  -201
  -230
  -261
  -294
  -329
  -366
  -404
  -445
  -487
  -531
  -577
  -625
  -675
  -727
  -780
  -836
  -894
  -955
  -1,018
  -1,083
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -26
  -35
  -45
  -57
  -72
  -88
  -107
  -127
  -150
  -175
  -201
  -230
  -261
  -294
  -329
  -366
  -404
  -445
  -487
  -531
  -577
  -625
  -675
  -727
  -780
  -836
  -894
  -955
  -1,018
  -1,083

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  113
  149
  191
  241
  300
  366
  441
  524
  616
  716
  825
  941
  1,066
  1,198
  1,338
  1,485
  1,639
  1,801
  1,969
  2,145
  2,328
  2,519
  2,717
  2,923
  3,137
  3,359
  3,590
  3,831
  4,080
  4,340
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  113
  149
  191
  241
  300
  366
  441
  524
  616
  716
  825
  941
  1,066
  1,198
  1,338
  1,485
  1,639
  1,801
  1,969
  2,145
  2,328
  2,519
  2,717
  2,923
  3,137
  3,359
  3,590
  3,831
  4,080
  4,340
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.761
  0.758
  0.759
  0.759
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.758
  0.756
  0.757
  0.756
  0.758
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
Average production assets, $m
  22
  29
  38
  48
  59
  72
  87
  103
  121
  141
  162
  185
  210
  236
  263
  292
  323
  354
  388
  422
  458
  496
  535
  575
  617
  661
  707
  754
  803
  854
Working capital, $m
  26
  34
  44
  55
  68
  83
  100
  119
  140
  163
  188
  215
  243
  273
  305
  338
  373
  410
  449
  489
  531
  574
  619
  666
  715
  765
  818
  873
  930
  989
Total debt, $m
  41
  60
  83
  111
  143
  179
  220
  266
  316
  371
  430
  494
  562
  634
  711
  791
  875
  964
  1,056
  1,152
  1,252
  1,357
  1,465
  1,578
  1,695
  1,816
  1,943
  2,074
  2,211
  2,353
Total liabilities, $m
  62
  81
  105
  132
  164
  200
  241
  287
  337
  392
  451
  515
  583
  655
  732
  812
  897
  985
  1,077
  1,173
  1,274
  1,378
  1,486
  1,599
  1,716
  1,837
  1,964
  2,095
  2,232
  2,374
Total equity, $m
  51
  67
  87
  109
  136
  166
  200
  237
  279
  325
  374
  426
  483
  543
  606
  673
  742
  816
  892
  972
  1,055
  1,141
  1,231
  1,324
  1,421
  1,522
  1,626
  1,735
  1,848
  1,966
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  113
  148
  192
  241
  300
  366
  441
  524
  616
  717
  825
  941
  1,066
  1,198
  1,338
  1,485
  1,639
  1,801
  1,969
  2,145
  2,329
  2,519
  2,717
  2,923
  3,137
  3,359
  3,590
  3,830
  4,080
  4,340
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.800
  0.890
  0.960
  1.010
  1.050
  1.080
  1.100
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -26
  -35
  -45
  -57
  -72
  -88
  -107
  -127
  -150
  -175
  -201
  -230
  -261
  -294
  -329
  -366
  -404
  -445
  -487
  -531
  -577
  -625
  -675
  -727
  -780
  -836
  -894
  -955
  -1,018
  -1,083
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  23
  25
  29
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  82
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  131
Funds from operations, $m
  -21
  -29
  -38
  -49
  -61
  -76
  -92
  -110
  -130
  -152
  -176
  -201
  -228
  -257
  -288
  -321
  -355
  -390
  -427
  -466
  -507
  -549
  -593
  -638
  -685
  -735
  -786
  -839
  -894
  -951
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
Cash from operations, $m
  -28
  -37
  -48
  -60
  -74
  -91
  -109
  -129
  -151
  -175
  -200
  -228
  -257
  -288
  -320
  -354
  -390
  -427
  -466
  -506
  -548
  -592
  -638
  -685
  -734
  -785
  -838
  -894
  -951
  -1,011
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -124
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -70
  -75
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -123
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -175
Free cash flow, $m
  -36
  -47
  -60
  -76
  -93
  -113
  -135
  -159
  -185
  -213
  -243
  -276
  -310
  -346
  -384
  -424
  -465
  -508
  -554
  -601
  -649
  -700
  -753
  -808
  -865
  -924
  -986
  -1,050
  -1,116
  -1,185
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  16
  19
  23
  27
  32
  36
  41
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  126
  131
  137
  142
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  39
  51
  64
  80
  98
  118
  141
  165
  192
  220
  250
  282
  317
  354
  392
  432
  474
  518
  563
  611
  660
  711
  765
  820
  877
  937
  999
  1,064
  1,131
  1,201
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  55
  70
  87
  107
  130
  154
  182
  211
  242
  275
  309
  346
  385
  426
  468
  512
  558
  606
  655
  707
  760
  815
  873
  933
  994
  1,059
  1,125
  1,195
  1,268
  1,343
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  151
  157
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -39
  -51
  -64
  -80
  -98
  -118
  -141
  -165
  -192
  -220
  -250
  -282
  -317
  -354
  -392
  -432
  -474
  -518
  -563
  -611
  -660
  -711
  -765
  -820
  -877
  -937
  -999
  -1,064
  -1,131
  -1,201
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -20
  -28
  -37
  -48
  -61
  -76
  -94
  -113
  -135
  -158
  -184
  -212
  -242
  -274
  -307
  -343
  -381
  -420
  -461
  -504
  -549
  -596
  -645
  -695
  -748
  -802
  -859
  -918
  -979
  -1,043
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -19
  -26
  -32
  -40
  -48
  -56
  -63
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -92
  -92
  -90
  -87
  -83
  -77
  -71
  -64
  -57
  -49
  -42
  -35
  -29
  -23
  -18
  -14
  -11
  -8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  90.7
  82.5
  75.3
  68.9
  63.2
  58.2
  53.6
  49.5
  45.8
  42.5
  39.4
  36.7
  34.1
  31.8
  29.7
  27.7
  25.9
  24.2
  22.6
  21.2
  19.8
  18.6
  17.4
  16.3
  15.3
  14.4
  13.5
  12.6
  11.9
  11.1

Antares Pharma, Inc. (Antares) is a specialty pharmaceutical company that focuses on developing and commercializing self-administered parenteral pharmaceutical products and technologies. The Company develops and manufactures pressure-assisted injector devices, with and without needles, which allow patients to self-inject drugs. The Company's subcutaneous injection technology platforms include VIBEX disposable pressure-assisted auto injectors, Vision reusable needle-free injectors and disposable multi-use pen injectors. The Company operates through drug delivery segment, which includes self-administered parenteral pharmaceutical products and technologies. The Company has developed OTREXUP (methotrexate) injection, which is a single dose, disposable auto injector.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Antares Pharma, Inc. (ATRS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -19.1
Price to Sales 8.8
Price to Book 10.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -30.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -23
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -28.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -31.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -34.5%
Return On Total Capital -42.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -48.1%
Return On Equity -42.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -48.1%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 44.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.1%
EBITDA Margin -42.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -69.1%
Operating Margin -46.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -73.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -46.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -73.1%
Net Profit Margin -46.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -73.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

ATRS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ATRS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $64 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Antares Pharma, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Antares Pharma, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ATRS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 34.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ATRS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Antares Pharma, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Antares Pharma, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ATRS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 128.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ATRS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.7% for Antares Pharma, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Antares Pharma, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ATRS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ATRS are equal to 26%.

Life of production assets of 6.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Antares Pharma, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ATRS is equal to 30.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $39.001 million for Antares Pharma, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 160.531 million for Antares Pharma, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Antares Pharma, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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