Intrinsic value of Attunity - ATTU

Previous Close

$22.40

  Intrinsic Value

$0.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$22.40

 
Intrinsic value

$0.23

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ATTU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.00
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
Revenue, $m
  71
  80
  90
  100
  111
  123
  135
  147
  160
  174
  188
  203
  218
  234
  250
  268
  286
  304
  323
  343
  364
  386
  409
  433
  457
  483
  510
  538
  568
  599
Variable operating expenses, $m
  85
  96
  107
  119
  132
  145
  159
  174
  189
  205
  218
  235
  253
  271
  290
  310
  331
  352
  374
  398
  422
  447
  474
  501
  530
  560
  591
  623
  657
  693
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  85
  96
  107
  119
  132
  145
  159
  174
  189
  205
  218
  235
  253
  271
  290
  310
  331
  352
  374
  398
  422
  447
  474
  501
  530
  560
  591
  623
  657
  693
Operating income, $m
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
EBITDA, $m
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
Earnings before tax, $m
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  82
  92
  104
  116
  128
  142
  156
  170
  185
  201
  217
  234
  252
  270
  289
  309
  330
  351
  373
  397
  421
  446
  472
  500
  528
  558
  589
  622
  656
  691
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  82
  92
  104
  116
  128
  142
  156
  170
  185
  201
  217
  234
  252
  270
  289
  309
  330
  351
  373
  397
  421
  446
  472
  500
  528
  558
  589
  622
  656
  691
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.866
  0.870
  0.865
  0.862
  0.867
  0.866
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.866
  0.866
  0.868
  0.865
  0.867
  0.865
  0.867
  0.867
  0.866
  0.866
  0.864
  0.865
  0.865
  0.867
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.865
  0.866
  0.867
Average production assets, $m
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  139
  146
  155
  163
  172
Working capital, $m
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
Total debt, $m
  4
  8
  13
  18
  23
  28
  34
  40
  46
  52
  59
  66
  73
  80
  88
  96
  104
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  162
  173
  184
  196
  209
  222
  236
  250
Total liabilities, $m
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  133
  142
  151
  160
  170
  180
  191
  202
  213
  225
  238
  251
  265
  279
Total equity, $m
  49
  55
  62
  69
  77
  84
  93
  101
  110
  120
  129
  140
  150
  161
  172
  184
  196
  209
  223
  236
  251
  266
  281
  298
  315
  333
  351
  371
  391
  412
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  82
  92
  104
  116
  129
  141
  156
  170
  185
  201
  217
  235
  252
  270
  289
  309
  329
  351
  374
  396
  421
  446
  472
  500
  528
  558
  589
  622
  656
  691
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.080
  0.150
  0.210
  0.260
  0.300
  0.340
  0.370
  0.390
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
Funds from operations, $m
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
Free cash flow, $m
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  42
  45
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  24
  26
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  111
  116
  123
  129
  136
  142
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  0
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  0
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  95.0
  90.4
  86.1
  82.2
  78.5
  75.1
  71.9
  68.8
  66.0
  63.3
  60.9
  58.7
  56.5
  54.4
  52.4
  50.5
  48.7
  47.0
  45.3
  43.7
  42.1
  40.6
  39.2
  37.8
  36.5
  35.2
  34.0
  32.8
  31.6
  30.5

Attunity Ltd (Attunity) is a provider of Big Data management software solutions that enable access, management, sharing and distribution of data across heterogeneous enterprise platforms, organizations and the cloud. The Company's software solutions include data replication and distribution (Attunity Replicate, change data capture (CDC) and Attunity Gold Client Solutions), test data management (Attunity Gold Client Solutions), data connectivity (Attunity Connect), enterprise file replication (AttunityRepliWeb), managed-file-transfer (Attunity MFT), data warehouse automation (Attunity Compose), data usage analytics (Attunity Visibility) and cloud data delivery (AttunityCloudBeam). Its software is used for projects, such as data warehousing, Hadoop, business intelligence (BI) and Big Data analytics, reporting, migration and modernization, data consolidation and distribution, and cloud initiatives. It offers a software as a service (SaaS)-based platform with a portfolio of services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Attunity (ATTU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -34.3
Price to Sales 7
Price to Book 11.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -377.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -377.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -18.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.6%
Return On Total Capital -31%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.4%
Return On Equity -31%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.4%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 85.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.5%
EBITDA Margin -16.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.6%
Operating Margin -22.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -20.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.8%
Net Profit Margin -20.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

ATTU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ATTU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $62.098 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Attunity. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Attunity. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ATTU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ATTU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Attunity, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Attunity.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ATTU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 121%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ATTU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Attunity.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Attunity. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ATTU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ATTU are equal to 28.7%.

Life of production assets of 18.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Attunity operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ATTU is equal to -14.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $51.203 million for Attunity - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.732 million for Attunity is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Attunity at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Cloud Stocks to Buy Right Now   [Nov-14-18 05:51PM  Zacks]
▶ Attunity Announces 2018 Annual General Meeting   [Nov-08-18 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
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▶ Attunity: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-25-18 07:21AM  Associated Press]
▶ Attunity Ltd to Host Earnings Call   [06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
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▶ Attunity: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 08:54AM  Associated Press]
▶ Attunity reports 4Q loss   [08:55AM  Associated Press]
▶ Attunity Ltd to Host Earnings Call   [07:10AM  ACCESSWIRE]

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