Intrinsic value of Acorn International ADR - ATV

Previous Close

$16.61

  Intrinsic Value

$6.89

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-59%

Previous close

$16.61

 
Intrinsic value

$6.89

 
Up/down potential

-59%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ATV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -47.92
  25.00
  23.00
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
Revenue, $m
  25
  31
  38
  47
  56
  66
  77
  89
  102
  116
  130
  146
  163
  180
  198
  217
  237
  257
  279
  301
  324
  348
  373
  399
  426
  455
  484
  514
  546
  579
  613
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  58
  71
  86
  103
  121
  141
  164
  187
  213
  240
  269
  299
  331
  364
  399
  435
  473
  513
  554
  597
  641
  687
  735
  785
  836
  890
  946
  1,005
  1,065
  1,129
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  34
  58
  71
  86
  103
  121
  141
  164
  187
  213
  240
  269
  299
  331
  364
  399
  435
  473
  513
  554
  597
  641
  687
  735
  785
  836
  890
  946
  1,005
  1,065
  1,129
Operating income, $m
  -9
  -26
  -32
  -39
  -47
  -55
  -65
  -75
  -86
  -97
  -110
  -123
  -137
  -151
  -166
  -182
  -199
  -216
  -234
  -253
  -272
  -293
  -314
  -335
  -358
  -382
  -406
  -432
  -459
  -486
  -515
EBITDA, $m
  -6
  -24
  -30
  -36
  -43
  -51
  -60
  -69
  -79
  -90
  -102
  -114
  -127
  -140
  -154
  -169
  -185
  -201
  -217
  -235
  -253
  -272
  -291
  -312
  -333
  -355
  -377
  -401
  -426
  -452
  -478
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  -26
  -33
  -40
  -48
  -57
  -67
  -77
  -89
  -101
  -114
  -128
  -142
  -158
  -174
  -190
  -208
  -226
  -245
  -265
  -285
  -307
  -329
  -352
  -376
  -401
  -427
  -454
  -482
  -511
  -542
Tax expense, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  3
  -26
  -33
  -40
  -48
  -57
  -67
  -77
  -89
  -101
  -114
  -128
  -142
  -158
  -174
  -190
  -208
  -226
  -245
  -265
  -285
  -307
  -329
  -352
  -376
  -401
  -427
  -454
  -482
  -511
  -542

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  133
  134
  164
  199
  238
  281
  328
  380
  435
  494
  557
  624
  695
  768
  846
  927
  1,011
  1,100
  1,191
  1,286
  1,386
  1,489
  1,596
  1,707
  1,822
  1,943
  2,068
  2,198
  2,333
  2,474
  2,621
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  107
  134
  164
  199
  238
  281
  328
  380
  435
  494
  557
  624
  695
  768
  846
  927
  1,011
  1,100
  1,191
  1,286
  1,386
  1,489
  1,596
  1,707
  1,822
  1,943
  2,068
  2,198
  2,333
  2,474
  2,621
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.234
  0.231
  0.232
  0.236
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.234
  0.234
  0.235
  0.233
  0.234
  0.235
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
Average production assets, $m
  8
  9
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  39
  44
  49
  54
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  90
  97
  104
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  164
  174
  184
Working capital, $m
  18
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -82
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -111
  -119
  -128
  -136
  -145
  -155
  -165
  -175
  -185
  -196
Total debt, $m
  0
  8
  18
  29
  42
  55
  70
  87
  104
  123
  143
  164
  187
  210
  235
  261
  288
  316
  345
  375
  407
  439
  473
  509
  546
  584
  623
  665
  708
  753
  800
Total liabilities, $m
  34
  42
  52
  63
  76
  89
  104
  121
  138
  157
  177
  198
  221
  244
  269
  295
  322
  350
  379
  409
  441
  473
  507
  543
  580
  618
  657
  699
  742
  787
  834
Total equity, $m
  99
  91
  112
  136
  162
  192
  224
  259
  297
  337
  380
  426
  474
  524
  577
  632
  690
  750
  812
  877
  945
  1,015
  1,088
  1,164
  1,243
  1,325
  1,410
  1,499
  1,591
  1,687
  1,788
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  133
  133
  164
  199
  238
  281
  328
  380
  435
  494
  557
  624
  695
  768
  846
  927
  1,012
  1,100
  1,191
  1,286
  1,386
  1,488
  1,595
  1,707
  1,823
  1,943
  2,067
  2,198
  2,333
  2,474
  2,622
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.090
  0.160
  0.220
  0.260
  0.290
  0.310
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  -26
  -33
  -40
  -48
  -57
  -67
  -77
  -89
  -101
  -114
  -128
  -142
  -158
  -174
  -190
  -208
  -226
  -245
  -265
  -285
  -307
  -329
  -352
  -376
  -401
  -427
  -454
  -482
  -511
  -542
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
Funds from operations, $m
  -13
  -24
  -30
  -37
  -44
  -53
  -62
  -72
  -82
  -94
  -106
  -119
  -133
  -147
  -162
  -177
  -194
  -211
  -228
  -247
  -266
  -286
  -307
  -328
  -350
  -374
  -398
  -423
  -449
  -476
  -505
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Cash from operations, $m
  -14
  -22
  -28
  -34
  -42
  -50
  -58
  -68
  -78
  -89
  -101
  -114
  -127
  -141
  -156
  -171
  -187
  -204
  -222
  -240
  -259
  -278
  -299
  -320
  -342
  -365
  -388
  -413
  -439
  -466
  -494
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  29
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
Free cash flow, $m
  15
  -26
  -32
  -39
  -47
  -56
  -66
  -76
  -88
  -100
  -113
  -126
  -141
  -156
  -172
  -189
  -206
  -225
  -243
  -263
  -284
  -305
  -327
  -350
  -374
  -399
  -424
  -451
  -479
  -508
  -539
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  44
  54
  64
  74
  86
  99
  112
  126
  141
  157
  173
  190
  208
  226
  246
  266
  286
  308
  330
  353
  377
  402
  428
  455
  483
  512
  543
  574
  607
  642
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -2
  52
  64
  75
  86
  100
  114
  128
  144
  160
  177
  194
  212
  232
  251
  272
  293
  314
  337
  360
  385
  410
  436
  463
  492
  521
  552
  584
  617
  652
  689
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  13
  27
  31
  35
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  122
  127
  133
  138
  144
  150
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  79
  -44
  -54
  -64
  -74
  -86
  -99
  -112
  -126
  -141
  -157
  -173
  -190
  -208
  -226
  -246
  -266
  -286
  -308
  -330
  -353
  -377
  -402
  -428
  -455
  -483
  -512
  -543
  -574
  -607
  -642
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  9
  -22
  -28
  -35
  -42
  -51
  -60
  -70
  -81
  -93
  -105
  -119
  -133
  -148
  -163
  -179
  -197
  -214
  -233
  -252
  -272
  -293
  -315
  -337
  -360
  -385
  -410
  -436
  -464
  -492
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  8
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -50
  -50
  -48
  -46
  -43
  -39
  -36
  -32
  -28
  -24
  -21
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  53.5
  29.1
  16.1
  9.0
  5.1
  3.0
  1.7
  1.0
  0.6
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Acorn International, Inc. is a marketing and branding company in China that develops, promotes and sells a portfolio of branded products. The Company’s business is comprised of two main divisions, direct-sales platforms and its nationwide distribution network. The direct-sales business involves marketing and selling products directly to consumers in China through its outbound marketing platform and Internet sales platform. In addition, the Company maintains a nationwide distribution network through which it distributes a select number of its products promoted by the direct-sales platform. The Company’s distribution network covers all provinces in China through more than 29 distributors, and allows us to reach over 2,200 retail outlets across China.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Acorn International ADR (ATV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 417.5
Price to Sales 50.1
Price to Book 12.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -89.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -83.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -47.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -24.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.5%
Return On Total Capital 2.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.8%
Return On Equity 2.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.7%
EBITDA Margin 48%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.7%
Operating Margin -36%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -55.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 36%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.9%
Net Profit Margin 12%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.2%
Effective Tax Rate 55.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

ATV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ATV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $25 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Acorn International ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Acorn International ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ATV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ATV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Acorn International ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Acorn International ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ATV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 184%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ATV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Acorn International ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Acorn International ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ATV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ATV are equal to 30%.

Life of production assets of 2.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Acorn International ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ATV is equal to -32%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $99 million for Acorn International ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 3.595 million for Acorn International ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Acorn International ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Acorn International Names Jacob A. Fisch CEO   [Nov-03-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Should You Buy Acorn International Inc (ATV) At $14.17?   [Oct-11-17 07:14PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Acorn International Sells Majority Stake in HJX Business   [Aug-11-17 06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ An Aging Video Gaming Industry Wars Against Slowing Growth   [Mar-17-17 08:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Acorn International Announces Change of Auditor   [Oct-21-16 06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Columbia Threadneedle Is Still Finding Its Way   [Jul-19-16 07:00AM  at Morningstar]
▶ Acorn International Announces Resignation of a Director   [Jun-24-16 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Keep an Eye on These 4 High-Flying Stocks Today   [Jan-11-16 12:47PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Are Investors Piling Into These Surging Stocks Today?   [Dec-04  01:57PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Congressman Questions VW's "Road of Deceit"   [Nov-03  02:19PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Acorn International Has No Comment on Trading Activity   [Sep-04  01:04PM  PR Newswire]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- Acorn International, Inc./   [Aug-27  10:26AM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of ATV
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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