Intrinsic value of AudioCodes - AUDC

Previous Close

$7.99

  Intrinsic Value

$21.49

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+169%

  Value-price divergence*

+398%

Previous close

$7.99

 
Intrinsic value

$21.49

 
Up/down potential

+169%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+398%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AUDC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.29
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  146
  158
  171
  184
  197
  212
  226
  242
  257
  274
  291
  309
  328
  347
  367
  389
  411
  434
  458
  483
  509
  537
  566
  596
  627
  660
  695
  731
  769
  809
  850
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  31
  33
  36
  38
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  138
  141
  145
  148
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  176
  181
  185
  190
  195
  199
  204
  209
  215
  220
  226
  231
  237
Total operating expenses, $m
  138
  147
  152
  158
  163
  168
  174
  180
  186
  192
  199
  202
  209
  217
  224
  232
  240
  248
  256
  265
  274
  284
  294
  303
  313
  324
  336
  347
  360
  372
  385
Operating income, $m
  8
  11
  19
  26
  35
  43
  52
  62
  71
  81
  92
  107
  119
  131
  144
  157
  171
  186
  202
  218
  235
  253
  272
  292
  313
  336
  359
  383
  409
  436
  465
EBITDA, $m
  11
  15
  23
  31
  39
  48
  57
  66
  76
  86
  97
  108
  120
  132
  145
  159
  173
  188
  203
  220
  237
  255
  274
  295
  316
  338
  361
  386
  412
  439
  468
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
Earnings before tax, $m
  8
  11
  18
  26
  34
  42
  51
  60
  69
  79
  90
  104
  115
  127
  140
  153
  167
  181
  196
  212
  229
  247
  265
  285
  305
  327
  349
  373
  398
  425
  453
Tax expense, $m
  -8
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
Net income, $m
  16
  8
  13
  19
  25
  31
  37
  44
  51
  58
  65
  76
  84
  93
  102
  112
  122
  132
  143
  155
  167
  180
  193
  208
  223
  238
  255
  272
  291
  310
  331

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  187
  169
  182
  196
  211
  226
  242
  258
  275
  293
  311
  330
  350
  371
  393
  415
  439
  463
  489
  516
  544
  573
  604
  636
  670
  705
  742
  781
  822
  864
  909
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  156
  169
  182
  196
  211
  226
  242
  258
  275
  293
  311
  330
  350
  371
  393
  415
  439
  463
  489
  516
  544
  573
  604
  636
  670
  705
  742
  781
  822
  864
  909
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.936
  0.935
  0.940
  0.939
  0.934
  0.938
  0.934
  0.938
  0.935
  0.935
  0.936
  0.936
  0.937
  0.935
  0.934
  0.937
  0.936
  0.937
  0.937
  0.936
  0.936
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.936
  0.936
  0.937
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.935
Average production assets, $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Working capital, $m
  35
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
Total debt, $m
  12
  15
  22
  28
  35
  43
  50
  58
  66
  75
  84
  93
  102
  112
  123
  134
  145
  157
  169
  182
  196
  210
  225
  240
  256
  273
  291
  310
  329
  350
  371
Total liabilities, $m
  78
  81
  88
  94
  101
  109
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  168
  178
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  262
  276
  291
  306
  322
  339
  357
  376
  395
  416
  437
Total equity, $m
  109
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
  182
  193
  204
  215
  228
  240
  254
  268
  282
  298
  314
  330
  348
  366
  385
  405
  426
  448
  472
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  187
  169
  183
  196
  210
  226
  241
  258
  275
  293
  311
  330
  350
  371
  393
  415
  439
  463
  489
  516
  544
  574
  605
  636
  670
  705
  742
  781
  821
  864
  909
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.110
  0.170
  0.230
  0.280
  0.320
  0.360
  0.400
  0.430
  0.460
  0.490
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.620
  0.640
  0.650
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.500
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  16
  8
  13
  19
  25
  31
  37
  44
  51
  58
  65
  76
  84
  93
  102
  112
  122
  132
  143
  155
  167
  180
  193
  208
  223
  238
  255
  272
  291
  310
  331
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
Funds from operations, $m
  22
  12
  17
  23
  29
  35
  41
  48
  55
  62
  70
  77
  85
  94
  103
  113
  123
  134
  145
  157
  169
  182
  195
  210
  225
  241
  257
  275
  294
  313
  334
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  18
  11
  17
  22
  28
  34
  41
  47
  54
  62
  69
  76
  84
  93
  102
  112
  122
  133
  144
  155
  168
  181
  194
  208
  223
  239
  256
  273
  292
  311
  332
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  14
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Free cash flow, $m
  32
  10
  16
  21
  27
  33
  39
  46
  53
  60
  67
  74
  82
  91
  100
  110
  120
  130
  141
  152
  165
  177
  191
  205
  220
  235
  252
  269
  287
  306
  327
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -27
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -27
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  5
  17
  22
  28
  34
  40
  47
  54
  61
  68
  76
  83
  92
  101
  111
  120
  131
  142
  153
  165
  178
  191
  206
  220
  236
  252
  269
  288
  307
  327
  348
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  8
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  38
  15
  21
  26
  32
  39
  45
  52
  59
  67
  73
  82
  90
  99
  109
  119
  129
  140
  151
  164
  176
  190
  204
  218
  234
  250
  268
  286
  305
  325
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  36
  14
  18
  22
  25
  28
  31
  32
  34
  35
  35
  35
  34
  33
  32
  30
  28
  26
  23
  21
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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  100.0
  100.0
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AudioCodes Ltd. designs, develops and sells Voice over-Internet Protocol (VoIP) and converged VoIP, and data networking solutions, products and applications that facilitate Unified Communications (UC) and Contact Center (CC) services. The Company categorizes its products and services into two main business lines: network and technology. Network products consist of customer premises equipment (CPE), gateways for the enterprise and service provider (or carrier) markets and of carrier-grade-oriented low- and mid-density media gateways for service providers and Enterprise Session Border Controls (ESBCs). Complementing its media gateways and session border gateways as network products are its multi-service business routers (MSBR), Internet Protocol (IP) phones, media servers, mobile VoIP solutions and value added application products. Technology products consist of its chips and boards business products. Its products are deployed in enterprise, service provider cloud networks.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AudioCodes (AUDC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.2
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 8.3%
Total Debt to Equity 11%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Total Capital 12.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 14.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Operating Margin 5.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Net Profit Margin 11%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Effective Tax Rate -100%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

AUDC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AUDC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $146 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AudioCodes. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of AudioCodes. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AUDC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AUDC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AudioCodes, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AudioCodes.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AUDC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 19.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $113 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AUDC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for AudioCodes.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AudioCodes. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AUDC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AUDC are equal to 5.1%.

Life of production assets of 14.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AudioCodes operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AUDC is equal to 4.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $109 million for AudioCodes - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.093 million for AudioCodes is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AudioCodes at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ BT Selects AudioCodes for Business Voice Services   [Oct-16-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ AudioCodes Enhances Enterprise Voice Management Suite   [Oct-09-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ AudioCodes Enhances One Voice for Microsoft 365   [Oct-03-17 12:22PM  PR Newswire]
▶ AudioCodes Announces Third Quarter 2017 Reporting Date   [Oct-02-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ AudioCodes Introduces 445HD IP Phone for Microsoft 365   [Sep-21-17 10:05AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AudioCodes Ltd. : September 7, 2017   [Sep-07-17 12:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Should AudioCodes (AUDC) Be On Your Radar Now?   [Aug-25-17 08:32AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AudioCodes Ltd. : August 14, 2017   [Aug-14-17 04:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3 Tech Stocks Under $10 to Buy Now   [Aug-07-17 01:33PM  Zacks]
▶ AudioCodes posts 2Q profit   [Jul-26-17 09:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ AudioCodes Teams Up With Sumitomo Shoji Machinex Japan   [Jul-24-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ AudioCodes Announces Second Quarter 2017 Reporting Date   [Jul-06-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AudioCodes Ltd. : May 5, 2017   [May-05-17 03:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ AudioCodes posts 1Q profit   [Apr-26-17 05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AudioCodes Ltd. : April 24, 2017   [Apr-24-17 02:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AudioCodes Ltd. : April 12, 2017   [Apr-12-17 01:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ AudioCodes Announces First Quarter 2017 Reporting Date   [Apr-05-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is AudioCodes Ltd. (AUDC) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-12-16 05:25PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ AudioCodes and Genesys Expand Strategic Partnership   [Nov-30-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ AudioCodes Announces Third Quarter 2016 Reporting Date   [Oct-05-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ AudioCodes Announces Second Quarter 2016 Reporting Date   [Jul-06-16 09:57AM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of AUDC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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