Intrinsic value of AeroVironment - AVAV

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$52.29

  Intrinsic Value

$3.99

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  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

Previous close

$52.29

 
Intrinsic value

$3.99

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AVAV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.38
  22.20
  20.48
  18.93
  17.54
  16.28
  15.16
  14.14
  13.23
  12.40
  11.66
  11.00
  10.40
  9.86
  9.37
  8.93
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
Revenue, $m
  265
  324
  390
  464
  545
  634
  730
  834
  944
  1,061
  1,185
  1,315
  1,452
  1,595
  1,744
  1,900
  2,062
  2,231
  2,407
  2,589
  2,779
  2,976
  3,181
  3,394
  3,615
  3,846
  4,085
  4,335
  4,595
  4,866
  5,149
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  312
  375
  446
  525
  610
  703
  802
  908
  1,021
  1,140
  1,265
  1,397
  1,534
  1,678
  1,828
  1,984
  2,146
  2,315
  2,491
  2,673
  2,863
  3,060
  3,265
  3,478
  3,699
  3,930
  4,170
  4,420
  4,681
  4,953
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  252
  312
  375
  446
  525
  610
  703
  802
  908
  1,021
  1,140
  1,265
  1,397
  1,534
  1,678
  1,828
  1,984
  2,146
  2,315
  2,491
  2,673
  2,863
  3,060
  3,265
  3,478
  3,699
  3,930
  4,170
  4,420
  4,681
  4,953
Operating income, $m
  13
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  66
  72
  78
  85
  91
  98
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
EBITDA, $m
  20
  17
  20
  24
  29
  33
  38
  44
  49
  56
  62
  69
  76
  84
  91
  100
  108
  117
  126
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  189
  202
  214
  227
  241
  255
  270
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
Earnings before tax, $m
  14
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  25
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  53
  57
  62
  67
  73
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  109
  116
  124
  131
  139
  147
  156
  165
Tax expense, $m
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  44
Net income, $m
  12
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  101
  107
  114
  120

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  200
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  433
  285
  343
  408
  480
  558
  642
  733
  830
  933
  1,042
  1,157
  1,277
  1,403
  1,534
  1,671
  1,814
  1,962
  2,117
  2,277
  2,444
  2,617
  2,798
  2,985
  3,180
  3,382
  3,593
  3,813
  4,041
  4,280
  4,528
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  233
  285
  343
  408
  480
  558
  642
  733
  830
  933
  1,042
  1,157
  1,277
  1,403
  1,534
  1,671
  1,814
  1,962
  2,117
  2,277
  2,444
  2,617
  2,798
  2,985
  3,180
  3,382
  3,593
  3,813
  4,041
  4,280
  4,528
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.135
  1.136
  1.137
  1.138
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
  1.137
Average production assets, $m
  19
  23
  28
  33
  39
  46
  53
  60
  68
  76
  85
  95
  105
  115
  126
  137
  148
  161
  173
  186
  200
  214
  229
  244
  260
  277
  294
  312
  331
  350
  371
Working capital, $m
  306
  130
  156
  186
  218
  254
  292
  333
  378
  424
  474
  526
  581
  638
  698
  760
  825
  893
  963
  1,036
  1,112
  1,190
  1,272
  1,357
  1,446
  1,538
  1,634
  1,734
  1,838
  1,946
  2,060
Total debt, $m
  0
  11
  24
  38
  54
  71
  90
  110
  131
  153
  177
  202
  229
  256
  285
  315
  346
  379
  413
  448
  484
  522
  562
  603
  645
  690
  736
  784
  834
  886
  941
Total liabilities, $m
  51
  62
  75
  89
  105
  122
  141
  161
  182
  204
  228
  253
  280
  307
  336
  366
  397
  430
  464
  499
  535
  573
  613
  654
  696
  741
  787
  835
  885
  937
  992
Total equity, $m
  382
  222
  268
  319
  375
  436
  502
  573
  648
  729
  814
  903
  997
  1,095
  1,198
  1,305
  1,417
  1,533
  1,653
  1,779
  1,909
  2,044
  2,185
  2,331
  2,483
  2,641
  2,806
  2,978
  3,156
  3,343
  3,537
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  433
  284
  343
  408
  480
  558
  643
  734
  830
  933
  1,042
  1,156
  1,277
  1,402
  1,534
  1,671
  1,814
  1,963
  2,117
  2,278
  2,444
  2,617
  2,798
  2,985
  3,179
  3,382
  3,593
  3,813
  4,041
  4,280
  4,529
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.050
  0.090
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  101
  107
  114
  120
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
Funds from operations, $m
  -47
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  85
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  194
Change in working capital, $m
  -36
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
Cash from operations, $m
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -1
  1
  4
  7
  10
  14
  18
  22
  26
  30
  34
  39
  43
  48
  53
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -37
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
Free cash flow, $m
  -48
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -22
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -10
  -9
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  31
  35
  38
  42
  45
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  62
  63
  64
  64
  65
  65
  66
  66
  67
  68
  69
  70
  71
  73
  74
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  42
  48
  52
  58
  62
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  83
  85
  88
  90
  92
  93
  96
  98
  99
  102
  103
  105
  107
  110
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  128
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -44
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -20
  -40
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -171
  -179
  -186
  -194
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  200
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  184
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  177
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.0
  90.6
  86.8
  83.5
  80.5
  77.9
  75.6
  73.6
  71.8
  70.1
  68.6
  67.3
  66.1
  65.0
  64.0
  63.1
  62.2
  61.4
  60.7
  60.0
  59.4
  58.9
  58.3
  57.8
  57.3
  56.9
  56.4
  56.0
  55.6
  55.3

AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, supports and operates a portfolio of products and services for government agencies, businesses and consumers. The Company operates through two segments: Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), which focuses primarily on the design, development, production, support and operation of UAS and tactical missile systems that provide situational awareness, multi-band communications, force protection and other mission effects, and Efficient Energy Systems (EES), which focuses primarily on the design, development, production, marketing, support and operation of electric energy systems. The Company supplies UAS, tactical missile systems and related services primarily to organizations within the United States Department of Defense (DoD). The Company also supplies charging systems and services for electric vehicles (EVs), and power cycling and test systems to commercial, consumer and government customers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AeroVironment (AVAV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 103
Price to Sales 4.7
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -112.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -58.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 42.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Total Capital 3.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity 3.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Operating Margin 4.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 4.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Effective Tax Rate 14.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

AVAV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AVAV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $265 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AeroVironment. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of AeroVironment. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AVAV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AVAV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AeroVironment, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AeroVironment.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AVAV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AVAV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for AeroVironment.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AeroVironment. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AVAV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AVAV are equal to 7.2%.

Life of production assets of 2.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AeroVironment operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AVAV is equal to 40%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $382 million for AeroVironment - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.932 million for AeroVironment is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AeroVironment at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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Financial statements of AVAV
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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