Intrinsic value of Avinger - AVGR

Previous Close

$0.35

  Intrinsic Value

$0.04

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$0.35

 
Intrinsic value

$0.04

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AVGR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  72.73
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
Total operating expenses, $m
  70
  73
  74
  76
  79
  80
  83
  85
  88
  90
  94
  97
  101
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  152
  158
  165
  171
  179
  186
  194
  203
Operating income, $m
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -129
  -135
  -140
EBITDA, $m
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Earnings before tax, $m
  -56
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -56
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  54
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.056
  1.056
  1.053
  1.053
  1.050
  1.100
  1.048
  1.045
  1.043
  1.087
  1.083
  1.080
  1.077
  1.074
  1.034
  1.033
  1.065
  1.063
  1.059
  1.057
  1.054
  1.051
  1.049
  1.047
  1.044
  1.043
  1.061
  1.059
  1.056
  1.054
  1.051
Average production assets, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
Working capital, $m
  0
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
Total debt, $m
  41
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
Total liabilities, $m
  49
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Total equity, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  53
  18
  19
  19
  19
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  26
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  45
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Debt-to-equity ratio
  10.250
  1.300
  1.350
  1.400
  1.460
  1.520
  1.580
  1.640
  1.710
  1.770
  1.840
  1.900
  1.960
  2.020
  2.080
  2.140
  2.200
  2.250
  2.310
  2.360
  2.410
  2.460
  2.510
  2.550
  2.590
  2.640
  2.670
  2.710
  2.750
  2.780
  2.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.778
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -56
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
Funds from operations, $m
  -62
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -141
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  -53
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -97
  -101
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
Free cash flow, $m
  -54
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  37
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  74
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  128
  133
  139
  144
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  47
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  75
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  130
  135
  141
  146
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  12
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -144
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
Discount rate, %
 
  6.60
  6.93
  7.28
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.29
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.45
  13.07
  13.72
  14.41
  15.13
  15.88
  16.68
  17.51
  18.39
  19.31
  20.27
  21.29
  22.35
  23.47
  24.64
  25.87
  27.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -50
  -48
  -46
  -43
  -40
  -38
  -35
  -32
  -29
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  13.5
  1.8
  0.2
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Avinger, Inc. is a commercial-stage medical device company. The Company designs, manufactures and sells image-guided, catheter-based systems that are used by physicians to treat patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). The Company focuses on introducing products based on its lumivascular platform, which is an intravascular image-guided system. The Company manufactures and sells a suite of products in the United States and certain European markets. The Company's products include Lightbox imaging console, as well as its Wildcat, Kittycat and the Ocelot family of catheters, which are designed to allow physicians to penetrate a total blockage in an artery, known as a chronic total occlusion (CTO). The lumivascular platform offers real-time visualization of the inside of the artery during PAD treatment. The lumivascular platform consists of a capital component Lightbox and a range of disposable catheter products, including Ocelot, Ocelot PIXL, Ocelot MVRX and Pantheris.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Avinger (AVGR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.1
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 72.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 1025%
Interest Coverage -13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -96.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -108%
Return On Total Capital -123.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -146.9%
Return On Equity -560%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -884.7%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36%
EBITDA Margin -263.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -296.8%
Operating Margin -268.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -286.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -294.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -337.6%
Net Profit Margin -294.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -337.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

AVGR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AVGR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $19 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Avinger. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Avinger. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AVGR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.6%, whose default value for AVGR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Avinger, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Avinger.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AVGR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 236.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $26 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AVGR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.3% for Avinger.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Avinger. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AVGR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AVGR are equal to 21.1%.

Life of production assets of 2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Avinger operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AVGR is equal to 26.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4 million for Avinger - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.914 million for Avinger is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Avinger at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Avinger, Inc. : October 11, 2017   [Oct-11-17 11:12AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Avinger, Inc. : September 28, 2017   [Sep-28-17 10:09AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Avinger, Inc. : August 25, 2017   [Aug-25-17 03:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Avinger reports 2Q loss   [01:07AM  Associated Press]
▶ Avinger Announces Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-08-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Avinger, Inc. : May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 12:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Avinger reports 1Q loss   [May-04-17 07:05PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of AVGR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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