Intrinsic value of American Water Works - AWK

Previous Close

$125.70

  Intrinsic Value

$30.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-76%

Previous close

$125.70

 
Intrinsic value

$30.57

 
Up/down potential

-76%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AWK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 22.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.50
  3.65
  3.78
  3.91
  4.02
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
Revenue, $m
  3,560
  3,690
  3,830
  3,980
  4,139
  4,310
  4,491
  4,683
  4,887
  5,103
  5,332
  5,573
  5,828
  6,097
  6,381
  6,681
  6,996
  7,328
  7,678
  8,047
  8,434
  8,842
  9,271
  9,722
  10,197
  10,696
  11,220
  11,771
  12,351
  12,960
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,952
  2,018
  2,088
  2,163
  2,243
  2,328
  2,419
  2,516
  2,618
  2,727
  2,675
  2,796
  2,924
  3,059
  3,202
  3,352
  3,510
  3,677
  3,853
  4,038
  4,232
  4,437
  4,652
  4,878
  5,117
  5,367
  5,630
  5,907
  6,197
  6,503
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,952
  2,018
  2,088
  2,163
  2,243
  2,328
  2,419
  2,516
  2,618
  2,727
  2,675
  2,796
  2,924
  3,059
  3,202
  3,352
  3,510
  3,677
  3,853
  4,038
  4,232
  4,437
  4,652
  4,878
  5,117
  5,367
  5,630
  5,907
  6,197
  6,503
Operating income, $m
  1,608
  1,673
  1,742
  1,817
  1,896
  1,981
  2,072
  2,167
  2,269
  2,377
  2,656
  2,777
  2,904
  3,038
  3,179
  3,328
  3,486
  3,651
  3,826
  4,009
  4,202
  4,405
  4,619
  4,844
  5,080
  5,329
  5,590
  5,865
  6,153
  6,457
EBITDA, $m
  2,381
  2,468
  2,561
  2,661
  2,768
  2,882
  3,003
  3,131
  3,268
  3,412
  3,565
  3,726
  3,897
  4,077
  4,267
  4,467
  4,678
  4,900
  5,134
  5,380
  5,640
  5,912
  6,199
  6,501
  6,818
  7,152
  7,503
  7,871
  8,258
  8,666
Interest expense (income), $m
  327
  465
  495
  526
  560
  596
  635
  676
  719
  766
  815
  867
  922
  981
  1,042
  1,107
  1,176
  1,248
  1,324
  1,404
  1,489
  1,578
  1,671
  1,770
  1,873
  1,982
  2,096
  2,217
  2,343
  2,476
  2,616
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,143
  1,178
  1,216
  1,257
  1,300
  1,347
  1,396
  1,448
  1,503
  1,562
  1,789
  1,854
  1,923
  1,996
  2,072
  2,153
  2,238
  2,327
  2,421
  2,520
  2,625
  2,734
  2,850
  2,971
  3,098
  3,232
  3,373
  3,521
  3,677
  3,841
Tax expense, $m
  309
  318
  328
  339
  351
  364
  377
  391
  406
  422
  483
  501
  519
  539
  559
  581
  604
  628
  654
  681
  709
  738
  769
  802
  837
  873
  911
  951
  993
  1,037
Net income, $m
  834
  860
  888
  918
  949
  983
  1,019
  1,057
  1,097
  1,140
  1,306
  1,354
  1,404
  1,457
  1,513
  1,572
  1,634
  1,699
  1,768
  1,840
  1,916
  1,996
  2,080
  2,169
  2,262
  2,360
  2,463
  2,571
  2,684
  2,804

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  21,978
  22,780
  23,642
  24,566
  25,552
  26,604
  27,722
  28,909
  30,168
  31,501
  32,911
  34,402
  35,976
  37,638
  39,390
  41,238
  43,186
  45,237
  47,397
  49,671
  52,063
  54,581
  57,230
  60,015
  62,944
  66,023
  69,261
  72,663
  76,239
  79,997
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  21,978
  22,780
  23,642
  24,566
  25,552
  26,604
  27,722
  28,909
  30,168
  31,501
  32,911
  34,402
  35,976
  37,638
  39,390
  41,238
  43,186
  45,237
  47,397
  49,671
  52,063
  54,581
  57,230
  60,015
  62,944
  66,023
  69,261
  72,663
  76,239
  79,997
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
Average production assets, $m
  18,204
  18,869
  19,583
  20,348
  21,165
  22,036
  22,962
  23,945
  24,988
  26,092
  27,260
  28,495
  29,799
  31,175
  32,627
  34,158
  35,771
  37,470
  39,259
  41,142
  43,124
  45,210
  47,404
  49,711
  52,137
  54,688
  57,369
  60,187
  63,149
  66,262
Working capital, $m
  -452
  -469
  -486
  -505
  -526
  -547
  -570
  -595
  -621
  -648
  -677
  -708
  -740
  -774
  -810
  -848
  -888
  -931
  -975
  -1,022
  -1,071
  -1,123
  -1,177
  -1,235
  -1,295
  -1,358
  -1,425
  -1,495
  -1,569
  -1,646
Total debt, $m
  9,164
  9,745
  10,369
  11,038
  11,752
  12,513
  13,323
  14,182
  15,093
  16,059
  17,080
  18,159
  19,299
  20,502
  21,771
  23,108
  24,518
  26,003
  27,567
  29,213
  30,946
  32,769
  34,686
  36,703
  38,823
  41,053
  43,397
  45,860
  48,449
  51,170
Total liabilities, $m
  15,912
  16,493
  17,117
  17,786
  18,500
  19,261
  20,071
  20,930
  21,841
  22,807
  23,828
  24,907
  26,047
  27,250
  28,519
  29,856
  31,266
  32,751
  34,315
  35,961
  37,694
  39,517
  41,434
  43,451
  45,571
  47,801
  50,145
  52,608
  55,197
  57,918
Total equity, $m
  6,066
  6,287
  6,525
  6,780
  7,052
  7,343
  7,651
  7,979
  8,326
  8,694
  9,083
  9,495
  9,929
  10,388
  10,872
  11,382
  11,919
  12,485
  13,081
  13,709
  14,370
  15,064
  15,795
  16,564
  17,373
  18,222
  19,116
  20,055
  21,042
  22,079
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  21,978
  22,780
  23,642
  24,566
  25,552
  26,604
  27,722
  28,909
  30,167
  31,501
  32,911
  34,402
  35,976
  37,638
  39,391
  41,238
  43,185
  45,236
  47,396
  49,670
  52,064
  54,581
  57,229
  60,015
  62,944
  66,023
  69,261
  72,663
  76,239
  79,997
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.510
  1.550
  1.590
  1.630
  1.670
  1.700
  1.740
  1.780
  1.810
  1.850
  1.880
  1.910
  1.940
  1.970
  2.000
  2.030
  2.060
  2.080
  2.110
  2.130
  2.150
  2.180
  2.200
  2.220
  2.230
  2.250
  2.270
  2.290
  2.300
  2.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  834
  860
  888
  918
  949
  983
  1,019
  1,057
  1,097
  1,140
  1,306
  1,354
  1,404
  1,457
  1,513
  1,572
  1,634
  1,699
  1,768
  1,840
  1,916
  1,996
  2,080
  2,169
  2,262
  2,360
  2,463
  2,571
  2,684
  2,804
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  773
  795
  819
  844
  871
  900
  931
  964
  999
  1,036
  909
  950
  993
  1,039
  1,088
  1,139
  1,192
  1,249
  1,309
  1,371
  1,437
  1,507
  1,580
  1,657
  1,738
  1,823
  1,912
  2,006
  2,105
  2,209
Funds from operations, $m
  1,607
  1,655
  1,706
  1,762
  1,821
  1,884
  1,950
  2,021
  2,096
  2,176
  2,215
  2,304
  2,397
  2,496
  2,600
  2,710
  2,826
  2,948
  3,076
  3,211
  3,353
  3,503
  3,660
  3,826
  4,000
  4,183
  4,375
  4,577
  4,789
  5,012
Change in working capital, $m
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
Cash from operations, $m
  1,622
  1,671
  1,724
  1,781
  1,841
  1,905
  1,973
  2,046
  2,122
  2,203
  2,244
  2,334
  2,430
  2,530
  2,636
  2,748
  2,866
  2,990
  3,121
  3,258
  3,403
  3,555
  3,715
  3,883
  4,060
  4,246
  4,441
  4,647
  4,863
  5,090
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -586
  -607
  -629
  -653
  -678
  -706
  -735
  -765
  -798
  -833
  -870
  -909
  -950
  -993
  -1,039
  -1,088
  -1,139
  -1,192
  -1,249
  -1,309
  -1,371
  -1,437
  -1,507
  -1,580
  -1,657
  -1,738
  -1,823
  -1,912
  -2,006
  -2,105
New CAPEX, $m
  -615
  -664
  -714
  -765
  -817
  -871
  -926
  -983
  -1,043
  -1,104
  -1,168
  -1,235
  -1,304
  -1,376
  -1,452
  -1,531
  -1,613
  -1,699
  -1,789
  -1,883
  -1,982
  -2,085
  -2,194
  -2,307
  -2,426
  -2,551
  -2,681
  -2,818
  -2,962
  -3,113
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,201
  -1,271
  -1,343
  -1,418
  -1,495
  -1,577
  -1,661
  -1,748
  -1,841
  -1,937
  -2,038
  -2,144
  -2,254
  -2,369
  -2,491
  -2,619
  -2,752
  -2,891
  -3,038
  -3,192
  -3,353
  -3,522
  -3,701
  -3,887
  -4,083
  -4,289
  -4,504
  -4,730
  -4,968
  -5,218
Free cash flow, $m
  421
  400
  381
  363
  346
  329
  313
  297
  281
  266
  206
  191
  176
  161
  145
  130
  114
  99
  83
  66
  49
  32
  14
  -4
  -23
  -43
  -63
  -84
  -106
  -128
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  553
  581
  624
  669
  714
  761
  810
  860
  911
  965
  1,021
  1,079
  1,140
  1,203
  1,269
  1,338
  1,410
  1,485
  1,564
  1,646
  1,732
  1,823
  1,917
  2,017
  2,121
  2,229
  2,344
  2,463
  2,589
  2,721
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  553
  581
  624
  669
  714
  761
  810
  860
  911
  965
  1,021
  1,079
  1,140
  1,203
  1,269
  1,338
  1,410
  1,485
  1,564
  1,646
  1,732
  1,823
  1,917
  2,017
  2,121
  2,229
  2,344
  2,463
  2,589
  2,721
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  974
  981
  1,005
  1,032
  1,060
  1,090
  1,122
  1,156
  1,193
  1,231
  1,227
  1,270
  1,316
  1,364
  1,414
  1,468
  1,524
  1,584
  1,646
  1,712
  1,782
  1,855
  1,932
  2,012
  2,097
  2,187
  2,281
  2,380
  2,484
  2,593
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -202
  -221
  -238
  -255
  -272
  -290
  -309
  -328
  -347
  -368
  -389
  -411
  -435
  -459
  -484
  -510
  -537
  -566
  -596
  -628
  -660
  -695
  -731
  -769
  -808
  -850
  -893
  -939
  -987
  -1,037
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  772
  759
  767
  777
  788
  800
  814
  829
  845
  863
  838
  859
  881
  905
  931
  958
  987
  1,018
  1,050
  1,085
  1,121
  1,160
  1,201
  1,244
  1,289
  1,337
  1,387
  1,441
  1,497
  1,555
Discount rate, %
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  710
  638
  583
  529
  476
  425
  376
  329
  285
  243
  195
  163
  133
  108
  86
  67
  51
  39
  28
  20
  14
  10
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

American Water Works Company, Inc. is a holding company for regulated and market-based subsidiaries throughout the United States and Ontario, Canada. The Company's Regulated Businesses segment provides water and wastewater services as public utilities in 16 states in the United States as of December 31, 2016. The Market-Based Businesses consists of four segments, including Military Services Group, which conducts operation and maintenance (O&M) of water and wastewater systems for military bases; Contract Operations Group, which conducts O&M of water and wastewater facilities for municipalities and the food and beverage industry; Homeowner Services Group, which primarily provides water and sewer line protection plans for homeowners, and Keystone, which provides water services for natural gas exploration and production companies. The Company, through its subsidiary, American Water Works Service Company, Inc. provides support and operational services for its operating subsidiaries.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Water Works (AWK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 47.8
Price to Sales 6.8
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -639.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 13%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 110.4%
Total Debt to Equity 137.6%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Total Capital 3.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Equity 9.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 47.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.9%
Operating Margin 32.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Net Profit Margin 14.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Effective Tax Rate 39.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.3%
Payout Ratio 55.8%

AWK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AWK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3440 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Water Works. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of American Water Works. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AWK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for AWK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Water Works, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Water Works.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AWK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 55%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AWK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for American Water Works.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Water Works. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AWK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AWK are equal to 511.3%.

Life of production assets of 33.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Water Works operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AWK is equal to -12.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5864 million for American Water Works - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 180.796 million for American Water Works is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Water Works at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $22.7 billion.

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