Intrinsic value of Anixter International - AXE

Previous Close

$71.85

  Intrinsic Value

$101.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+41%

Previous close

$71.85

 
Intrinsic value

$101.10

 
Up/down potential

+41%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of AXE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  8,466
  9,027
  9,610
  10,216
  10,848
  11,506
  12,191
  12,906
  13,651
  14,429
  15,241
  16,089
  16,975
  17,901
  18,870
  19,883
  20,944
  22,054
  23,216
  24,434
  25,709
  27,045
  28,445
  29,913
  31,451
  33,064
  34,756
  36,530
  38,391
  40,343
Variable operating expenses, $m
  7,697
  8,198
  8,720
  9,264
  9,829
  10,418
  11,032
  11,671
  12,339
  13,035
  13,646
  14,406
  15,199
  16,029
  16,896
  17,804
  18,753
  19,747
  20,788
  21,878
  23,020
  24,216
  25,470
  26,784
  28,162
  29,606
  31,121
  32,709
  34,376
  36,124
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  420
  429
  439
  448
  458
  468
  479
  489
  500
  511
  522
  534
  545
  557
  570
  582
  595
  608
  621
  635
  649
  663
  678
  693
  708
  724
  740
  756
  773
  790
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,117
  8,627
  9,159
  9,712
  10,287
  10,886
  11,511
  12,160
  12,839
  13,546
  14,168
  14,940
  15,744
  16,586
  17,466
  18,386
  19,348
  20,355
  21,409
  22,513
  23,669
  24,879
  26,148
  27,477
  28,870
  30,330
  31,861
  33,465
  35,149
  36,914
Operating income, $m
  350
  399
  451
  505
  561
  619
  681
  745
  812
  883
  1,072
  1,149
  1,230
  1,315
  1,404
  1,498
  1,596
  1,699
  1,807
  1,920
  2,040
  2,165
  2,297
  2,436
  2,581
  2,735
  2,896
  3,065
  3,243
  3,430
EBITDA, $m
  503
  555
  610
  666
  725
  787
  851
  919
  989
  1,063
  1,140
  1,221
  1,306
  1,395
  1,489
  1,587
  1,690
  1,798
  1,911
  2,030
  2,155
  2,287
  2,425
  2,570
  2,723
  2,883
  3,052
  3,229
  3,415
  3,611
Interest expense (income), $m
  76
  71
  82
  93
  105
  117
  130
  143
  157
  171
  186
  202
  218
  235
  253
  272
  291
  311
  333
  355
  378
  403
  428
  455
  483
  513
  544
  576
  610
  646
  683
Earnings before tax, $m
  279
  317
  357
  400
  444
  490
  538
  588
  641
  696
  870
  931
  995
  1,062
  1,132
  1,206
  1,284
  1,366
  1,452
  1,542
  1,637
  1,737
  1,842
  1,952
  2,069
  2,191
  2,319
  2,455
  2,597
  2,747
Tax expense, $m
  75
  86
  97
  108
  120
  132
  145
  159
  173
  188
  235
  251
  269
  287
  306
  326
  347
  369
  392
  416
  442
  469
  497
  527
  559
  592
  626
  663
  701
  742
Net income, $m
  203
  232
  261
  292
  324
  357
  393
  429
  468
  508
  635
  680
  726
  775
  827
  881
  937
  997
  1,060
  1,126
  1,195
  1,268
  1,345
  1,425
  1,510
  1,599
  1,693
  1,792
  1,896
  2,005

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,542
  4,843
  5,156
  5,481
  5,820
  6,173
  6,540
  6,924
  7,323
  7,741
  8,176
  8,631
  9,107
  9,604
  10,123
  10,667
  11,236
  11,832
  12,455
  13,108
  13,792
  14,509
  15,260
  16,048
  16,873
  17,738
  18,646
  19,598
  20,596
  21,643
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,542
  4,843
  5,156
  5,481
  5,820
  6,173
  6,540
  6,924
  7,323
  7,741
  8,176
  8,631
  9,107
  9,604
  10,123
  10,667
  11,236
  11,832
  12,455
  13,108
  13,792
  14,509
  15,260
  16,048
  16,873
  17,738
  18,646
  19,598
  20,596
  21,643
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
  1.864
Average production assets, $m
  779
  830
  884
  940
  998
  1,059
  1,122
  1,187
  1,256
  1,327
  1,402
  1,480
  1,562
  1,647
  1,736
  1,829
  1,927
  2,029
  2,136
  2,248
  2,365
  2,488
  2,617
  2,752
  2,894
  3,042
  3,198
  3,361
  3,532
  3,712
Working capital, $m
  1,456
  1,553
  1,653
  1,757
  1,866
  1,979
  2,097
  2,220
  2,348
  2,482
  2,621
  2,767
  2,920
  3,079
  3,246
  3,420
  3,602
  3,793
  3,993
  4,203
  4,422
  4,652
  4,893
  5,145
  5,410
  5,687
  5,978
  6,283
  6,603
  6,939
Total debt, $m
  1,439
  1,636
  1,842
  2,056
  2,278
  2,510
  2,752
  3,003
  3,266
  3,540
  3,826
  4,125
  4,438
  4,764
  5,106
  5,463
  5,837
  6,228
  6,638
  7,067
  7,516
  7,987
  8,481
  8,998
  9,540
  10,109
  10,705
  11,330
  11,986
  12,674
Total liabilities, $m
  2,984
  3,182
  3,387
  3,601
  3,824
  4,055
  4,297
  4,549
  4,811
  5,086
  5,372
  5,671
  5,983
  6,310
  6,651
  7,008
  7,382
  7,773
  8,183
  8,612
  9,062
  9,532
  10,026
  10,543
  11,086
  11,654
  12,250
  12,876
  13,532
  14,220
Total equity, $m
  1,558
  1,661
  1,768
  1,880
  1,996
  2,117
  2,243
  2,375
  2,512
  2,655
  2,804
  2,961
  3,124
  3,294
  3,472
  3,659
  3,854
  4,058
  4,272
  4,496
  4,731
  4,977
  5,234
  5,504
  5,787
  6,084
  6,396
  6,722
  7,064
  7,424
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,542
  4,843
  5,155
  5,481
  5,820
  6,172
  6,540
  6,924
  7,323
  7,741
  8,176
  8,632
  9,107
  9,604
  10,123
  10,667
  11,236
  11,831
  12,455
  13,108
  13,793
  14,509
  15,260
  16,047
  16,873
  17,738
  18,646
  19,598
  20,596
  21,644
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.920
  0.990
  1.040
  1.090
  1.140
  1.190
  1.230
  1.260
  1.300
  1.330
  1.360
  1.390
  1.420
  1.450
  1.470
  1.490
  1.510
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
  1.600
  1.620
  1.630
  1.650
  1.660
  1.670
  1.690
  1.700
  1.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  203
  232
  261
  292
  324
  357
  393
  429
  468
  508
  635
  680
  726
  775
  827
  881
  937
  997
  1,060
  1,126
  1,195
  1,268
  1,345
  1,425
  1,510
  1,599
  1,693
  1,792
  1,896
  2,005
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  154
  156
  159
  162
  164
  167
  170
  174
  177
  180
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  128
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  172
  181
Funds from operations, $m
  357
  388
  420
  453
  488
  525
  563
  603
  645
  689
  704
  752
  802
  856
  911
  970
  1,031
  1,096
  1,164
  1,235
  1,310
  1,389
  1,472
  1,559
  1,651
  1,748
  1,849
  1,956
  2,068
  2,186
Change in working capital, $m
  93
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  167
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  230
  241
  252
  265
  277
  291
  305
  320
  336
Cash from operations, $m
  264
  291
  319
  349
  380
  412
  445
  480
  517
  555
  564
  606
  650
  696
  745
  796
  849
  905
  964
  1,026
  1,091
  1,160
  1,231
  1,307
  1,387
  1,470
  1,558
  1,651
  1,748
  1,851
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
New CAPEX, $m
  -47
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -180
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -83
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -263
  -276
  -289
  -304
  -319
  -335
  -352
Free cash flow, $m
  181
  202
  225
  250
  276
  302
  330
  360
  390
  422
  424
  460
  496
  535
  575
  618
  662
  709
  758
  810
  864
  921
  981
  1,044
  1,111
  1,181
  1,254
  1,332
  1,413
  1,499
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  191
  198
  205
  214
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  327
  341
  357
  374
  391
  410
  429
  449
  471
  494
  517
  542
  569
  596
  625
  656
  688
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  191
  198
  205
  214
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  327
  341
  357
  374
  391
  410
  429
  449
  471
  494
  517
  542
  569
  596
  625
  656
  688
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  372
  399
  431
  464
  498
  534
  572
  611
  653
  696
  711
  758
  809
  861
  917
  975
  1,036
  1,100
  1,168
  1,239
  1,314
  1,392
  1,475
  1,562
  1,653
  1,749
  1,850
  1,957
  2,069
  2,187
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -246
  -258
  -270
  -283
  -297
  -311
  -326
  -342
  -359
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  273
  296
  324
  352
  382
  413
  446
  480
  516
  553
  561
  602
  646
  691
  738
  788
  841
  896
  954
  1,015
  1,079
  1,146
  1,217
  1,292
  1,370
  1,452
  1,539
  1,630
  1,726
  1,827
Discount rate, %
  7.30
  7.67
  8.05
  8.45
  8.87
  9.32
  9.78
  10.27
  10.79
  11.32
  11.89
  12.49
  13.11
  13.77
  14.45
  15.18
  15.93
  16.73
  17.57
  18.45
  19.37
  20.34
  21.35
  22.42
  23.54
  24.72
  25.96
  27.25
  28.62
  30.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  255
  256
  256
  255
  250
  242
  232
  220
  205
  189
  163
  147
  130
  114
  97
  82
  68
  55
  44
  34
  26
  20
  14
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Anixter International Inc. is engaged in the distribution of enterprise cabling and security solutions, electrical and electronic wire and cable products and utility power solutions. The Company operates through three segments: Network & Security Solutions (NSS), Electrical & Electronic Solutions (EES), and Utility Power Solutions (UPS). The NSS segment's product portfolio includes access control, power, cable management, wireless, professional audio/video, voice and networking switches, and other ancillary products. The EES segment's product portfolio includes electrical and electronic wire and cable, shipboard cable, support and supply products, low-voltage cable, instrumentation cable, industrial communication and control products, security cable, connectors, industrial Ethernet switches, and voice and data cable. The UPS segment supplies electrical transmission and distribution products, power plant maintenance, repair and operations supplies, and smart-grid products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Anixter International (AXE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.9
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 13.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 106.7%
Total Debt to Equity 106.7%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Total Capital 4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Equity 9.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.5%
EBITDA Margin 4.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Operating Margin 3.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Net Profit Margin 1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Effective Tax Rate 38.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

AXE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AXE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7927.4 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Anixter International. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Anixter International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AXE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.3%, whose default value for AXE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Anixter International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Anixter International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AXE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $411 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AXE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.7% for Anixter International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Anixter International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AXE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AXE are equal to 9.2%.

Life of production assets of 20.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Anixter International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AXE is equal to 17.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1459 million for Anixter International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.464 million for Anixter International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Anixter International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.

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