Intrinsic value of Anixter International - AXE

Previous Close

$78.45

  Intrinsic Value

$69.80

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-11%

Previous close

$78.45

 
Intrinsic value

$69.80

 
Up/down potential

-11%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AXE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  23.13
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
Revenue, $m
  7,623
  7,859
  8,118
  8,399
  8,702
  9,029
  9,379
  9,754
  10,153
  10,577
  11,028
  11,506
  12,013
  12,549
  13,116
  13,715
  14,347
  15,014
  15,717
  16,458
  17,239
  18,061
  18,926
  19,837
  20,796
  21,804
  22,865
  23,980
  25,152
  26,385
  27,680
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  7,519
  7,764
  8,030
  8,317
  8,627
  8,958
  9,313
  9,691
  10,093
  10,520
  10,896
  11,376
  11,884
  12,421
  12,988
  13,586
  14,218
  14,884
  15,585
  16,325
  17,103
  17,923
  18,785
  19,693
  20,648
  21,652
  22,708
  23,818
  24,985
  26,212
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,338
  7,519
  7,764
  8,030
  8,317
  8,627
  8,958
  9,313
  9,691
  10,093
  10,520
  10,896
  11,376
  11,884
  12,421
  12,988
  13,586
  14,218
  14,884
  15,585
  16,325
  17,103
  17,923
  18,785
  19,693
  20,648
  21,652
  22,708
  23,818
  24,985
  26,212
Operating income, $m
  285
  340
  354
  369
  385
  402
  421
  441
  462
  484
  508
  610
  637
  666
  696
  727
  761
  796
  834
  873
  914
  958
  1,004
  1,052
  1,103
  1,156
  1,213
  1,272
  1,334
  1,399
  1,468
EBITDA, $m
  351
  446
  461
  477
  494
  512
  532
  553
  576
  600
  626
  653
  682
  712
  744
  778
  814
  852
  892
  934
  978
  1,025
  1,074
  1,126
  1,180
  1,237
  1,298
  1,361
  1,427
  1,497
  1,571
Interest expense (income), $m
  76
  69
  73
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  140
  150
  159
  170
  181
  192
  205
  218
  231
  246
  261
  277
  293
  311
  329
  349
  369
  391
  414
Earnings before tax, $m
  198
  271
  281
  291
  302
  314
  326
  340
  354
  369
  385
  479
  497
  516
  536
  558
  580
  604
  629
  655
  683
  712
  743
  776
  810
  845
  883
  923
  965
  1,008
  1,054
Tax expense, $m
  77
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  201
  209
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  285
Net income, $m
  121
  198
  205
  212
  220
  229
  238
  248
  258
  269
  281
  350
  363
  377
  391
  407
  423
  441
  459
  478
  499
  520
  542
  566
  591
  617
  645
  674
  704
  736
  770

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  115
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,094
  4,102
  4,237
  4,384
  4,542
  4,712
  4,895
  5,091
  5,299
  5,520
  5,756
  6,005
  6,270
  6,550
  6,846
  7,158
  7,488
  7,836
  8,203
  8,590
  8,997
  9,426
  9,878
  10,354
  10,854
  11,380
  11,933
  12,516
  13,127
  13,771
  14,447
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,979
  4,102
  4,237
  4,384
  4,542
  4,712
  4,895
  5,091
  5,299
  5,520
  5,756
  6,005
  6,270
  6,550
  6,846
  7,158
  7,488
  7,836
  8,203
  8,590
  8,997
  9,426
  9,878
  10,354
  10,854
  11,380
  11,933
  12,516
  13,127
  13,771
  14,447
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
  1.916
Average production assets, $m
  570
  589
  609
  630
  653
  677
  703
  732
  761
  793
  827
  863
  901
  941
  984
  1,029
  1,076
  1,126
  1,179
  1,234
  1,293
  1,355
  1,419
  1,488
  1,560
  1,635
  1,715
  1,798
  1,886
  1,979
  2,076
Working capital, $m
  1,425
  1,352
  1,396
  1,445
  1,497
  1,553
  1,613
  1,678
  1,746
  1,819
  1,897
  1,979
  2,066
  2,158
  2,256
  2,359
  2,468
  2,582
  2,703
  2,831
  2,965
  3,106
  3,255
  3,412
  3,577
  3,750
  3,933
  4,125
  4,326
  4,538
  4,761
Total debt, $m
  1,379
  1,465
  1,560
  1,663
  1,775
  1,895
  2,023
  2,161
  2,307
  2,463
  2,629
  2,805
  2,991
  3,188
  3,396
  3,616
  3,849
  4,094
  4,352
  4,624
  4,911
  5,213
  5,531
  5,866
  6,218
  6,589
  6,978
  7,388
  7,819
  8,272
  8,748
Total liabilities, $m
  2,801
  2,888
  2,983
  3,086
  3,198
  3,318
  3,446
  3,584
  3,730
  3,886
  4,052
  4,228
  4,414
  4,611
  4,819
  5,039
  5,272
  5,517
  5,775
  6,047
  6,334
  6,636
  6,954
  7,289
  7,641
  8,012
  8,401
  8,811
  9,242
  9,695
  10,171
Total equity, $m
  1,292
  1,214
  1,254
  1,298
  1,344
  1,395
  1,449
  1,507
  1,568
  1,634
  1,704
  1,778
  1,856
  1,939
  2,026
  2,119
  2,216
  2,319
  2,428
  2,543
  2,663
  2,790
  2,924
  3,065
  3,213
  3,368
  3,532
  3,705
  3,886
  4,076
  4,276
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,093
  4,102
  4,237
  4,384
  4,542
  4,713
  4,895
  5,091
  5,298
  5,520
  5,756
  6,006
  6,270
  6,550
  6,845
  7,158
  7,488
  7,836
  8,203
  8,590
  8,997
  9,426
  9,878
  10,354
  10,854
  11,380
  11,933
  12,516
  13,128
  13,771
  14,447
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.067
  1.210
  1.240
  1.280
  1.320
  1.360
  1.400
  1.430
  1.470
  1.510
  1.540
  1.580
  1.610
  1.640
  1.680
  1.710
  1.740
  1.760
  1.790
  1.820
  1.840
  1.870
  1.890
  1.910
  1.940
  1.960
  1.980
  1.990
  2.010
  2.030
  2.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  121
  198
  205
  212
  220
  229
  238
  248
  258
  269
  281
  350
  363
  377
  391
  407
  423
  441
  459
  478
  499
  520
  542
  566
  591
  617
  645
  674
  704
  736
  770
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  66
  106
  107
  108
  109
  110
  111
  113
  114
  116
  117
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
Funds from operations, $m
  359
  304
  312
  320
  329
  339
  349
  361
  373
  385
  399
  392
  407
  423
  440
  458
  477
  497
  517
  539
  563
  587
  613
  640
  668
  698
  730
  763
  798
  834
  873
Change in working capital, $m
  80
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  192
  202
  212
  223
Cash from operations, $m
  279
  263
  267
  272
  277
  283
  289
  296
  304
  312
  321
  310
  320
  331
  343
  355
  368
  382
  397
  412
  428
  446
  464
  483
  503
  525
  547
  571
  596
  622
  650
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -37
  -47
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -195
Free cash flow, $m
  242
  215
  219
  221
  223
  226
  229
  233
  238
  243
  248
  233
  239
  246
  254
  261
  270
  279
  288
  298
  309
  320
  332
  345
  358
  372
  387
  402
  419
  436
  455
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -275
  86
  95
  103
  112
  120
  129
  138
  147
  156
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  318
  335
  352
  370
  390
  410
  431
  453
  476
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -273
  86
  95
  103
  112
  120
  129
  138
  147
  156
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  318
  335
  352
  370
  390
  410
  431
  453
  476
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -36
  301
  314
  324
  335
  346
  358
  371
  384
  399
  414
  409
  426
  443
  462
  481
  502
  524
  546
  570
  596
  622
  650
  679
  710
  742
  776
  812
  850
  889
  931
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -113
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -200
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  115
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  379
  274
  280
  288
  296
  304
  313
  323
  333
  344
  335
  347
  360
  374
  389
  404
  421
  438
  456
  475
  495
  516
  538
  562
  587
  613
  640
  669
  699
  730
Discount rate, %
 
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.85
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.19
  13.85
  14.55
  15.27
  16.04
  16.84
  17.68
  18.57
  19.49
  20.47
  21.49
  22.57
  23.69
  24.88
  26.12
  27.43
  28.80
  30.24
  31.75
  33.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  351
  232
  217
  201
  185
  168
  152
  136
  120
  105
  86
  73
  62
  51
  42
  34
  26
  20
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Anixter International Inc. is engaged in the distribution of enterprise cabling and security solutions, electrical and electronic wire and cable products and utility power solutions. The Company operates through three segments: Network & Security Solutions (NSS), Electrical & Electronic Solutions (EES), and Utility Power Solutions (UPS). The NSS segment's product portfolio includes access control, power, cable management, wireless, professional audio/video, voice and networking switches, and other ancillary products. The EES segment's product portfolio includes electrical and electronic wire and cable, shipboard cable, support and supply products, low-voltage cable, instrumentation cable, industrial communication and control products, security cable, connectors, industrial Ethernet switches, and voice and data cable. The UPS segment supplies electrical transmission and distribution products, power plant maintenance, repair and operations supplies, and smart-grid products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Anixter International (AXE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.7
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 13.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 106.7%
Total Debt to Equity 106.7%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Total Capital 4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Equity 9.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.5%
EBITDA Margin 4.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Operating Margin 3.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Net Profit Margin 1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Effective Tax Rate 38.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

AXE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AXE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7623 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Anixter International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Anixter International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AXE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.1%, whose default value for AXE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Anixter International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Anixter International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AXE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AXE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Anixter International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Anixter International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AXE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AXE are equal to 7.5%.

Life of production assets of 20.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Anixter International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AXE is equal to 17.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1292 million for Anixter International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.158 million for Anixter International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Anixter International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Anixter Could Offer Electrifying Returns   [07:00AM  Morningstar]
▶ Anixter International misses Street 3Q forecasts   [06:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ When Should You Buy Anixter International Inc (AXE)?   [Sep-19-17 05:21PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Anixter International meets 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-25-17 09:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 26th   [Jun-26-17 07:55AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 21st   [Jun-21-17 09:28AM  Zacks]
▶ [$$] Sam Zell Speaks His Mind   [Jun-18-17 03:00PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 14th   [Jun-14-17 10:23AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Growth Stocks to Buy for May 23rd   [May-23-17 10:21AM  Zacks]
▶ Anixter International beats 1Q profit forecasts   [06:40AM  Associated Press]
▶ Anixter International posts 4Q profit   [06:48AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Alexanders, Inc. (ALX) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-15-16 10:13AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Anixter International Inc. (AXE) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-11-16 12:57PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of AXE
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