Intrinsic value of Alteryx, Inc. - AYX

Previous Close

$117.25

  Intrinsic Value

$532.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+354%

Previous close

$117.25

 
Intrinsic value

$532.17

 
Up/down potential

+354%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of AYX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  406
  628
  939
  1,362
  1,922
  2,643
  3,547
  4,658
  5,993
  7,570
  9,400
  11,493
  13,852
  16,482
  19,380
  22,543
  25,968
  29,648
  33,578
  37,752
  42,163
  46,809
  51,685
  56,788
  62,119
  67,678
  73,467
  79,490
  85,752
  92,262
Variable operating expenses, $m
  245
  378
  564
  818
  1,154
  1,585
  2,128
  2,793
  3,593
  4,538
  5,634
  6,888
  8,302
  9,878
  11,614
  13,510
  15,563
  17,768
  20,123
  22,625
  25,269
  28,053
  30,975
  34,034
  37,229
  40,560
  44,029
  47,639
  51,392
  55,293
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  74
  75
  77
  79
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  91
  93
  96
  98
  100
  102
  104
  107
  109
  111
  114
  116
  119
  121
  124
  127
  130
  132
  135
  138
Total operating expenses, $m
  319
  453
  641
  897
  1,234
  1,667
  2,212
  2,879
  3,681
  4,628
  5,725
  6,981
  8,398
  9,976
  11,714
  13,612
  15,667
  17,875
  20,232
  22,736
  25,383
  28,169
  31,094
  34,155
  37,353
  40,687
  44,159
  47,771
  51,527
  55,431
Operating income, $m
  88
  175
  298
  466
  688
  975
  1,336
  1,779
  2,312
  2,942
  3,675
  4,512
  5,455
  6,506
  7,665
  8,931
  10,301
  11,773
  13,346
  15,016
  16,781
  18,640
  20,591
  22,633
  24,767
  26,991
  29,308
  31,719
  34,225
  36,830
EBITDA, $m
  93
  183
  309
  481
  710
  1,004
  1,374
  1,829
  2,376
  3,022
  3,772
  4,630
  5,598
  6,676
  7,865
  9,163
  10,568
  12,078
  13,691
  15,404
  17,215
  19,121
  21,123
  23,218
  25,406
  27,688
  30,064
  32,537
  35,107
  37,780
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  15
  31
  54
  87
  132
  191
  268
  363
  481
  622
  789
  983
  1,205
  1,454
  1,733
  2,040
  2,375
  2,737
  3,127
  3,543
  3,985
  4,452
  4,944
  5,460
  6,000
  6,564
  7,153
  7,766
  8,403
  9,066
Earnings before tax, $m
  73
  144
  243
  378
  556
  784
  1,068
  1,415
  1,831
  2,320
  2,886
  3,528
  4,250
  5,052
  5,933
  6,891
  7,926
  9,036
  10,219
  11,473
  12,796
  14,188
  15,647
  17,174
  18,767
  20,427
  22,155
  23,953
  25,822
  27,764
Tax expense, $m
  20
  39
  66
  102
  150
  212
  288
  382
  494
  626
  779
  953
  1,148
  1,364
  1,602
  1,861
  2,140
  2,440
  2,759
  3,098
  3,455
  3,831
  4,225
  4,637
  5,067
  5,515
  5,982
  6,467
  6,972
  7,496
Net income, $m
  53
  105
  178
  276
  406
  572
  780
  1,033
  1,337
  1,693
  2,107
  2,576
  3,103
  3,688
  4,331
  5,031
  5,786
  6,596
  7,460
  8,375
  9,341
  10,357
  11,423
  12,537
  13,700
  14,912
  16,173
  17,486
  18,850
  20,268

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  661
  1,021
  1,527
  2,215
  3,126
  4,297
  5,768
  7,573
  9,745
  12,309
  15,285
  18,687
  22,524
  26,800
  31,511
  36,655
  42,224
  48,208
  54,598
  61,385
  68,558
  76,112
  84,040
  92,339
  101,007
  110,046
  119,458
  129,252
  139,435
  150,019
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  661
  1,021
  1,527
  2,215
  3,126
  4,297
  5,768
  7,573
  9,745
  12,309
  15,285
  18,687
  22,524
  26,800
  31,511
  36,655
  42,224
  48,208
  54,598
  61,385
  68,558
  76,112
  84,040
  92,339
  101,007
  110,046
  119,458
  129,252
  139,435
  150,019
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.614
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
Average production assets, $m
  29
  45
  67
  97
  136
  188
  252
  331
  426
  537
  667
  816
  984
  1,170
  1,376
  1,601
  1,844
  2,105
  2,384
  2,680
  2,994
  3,323
  3,670
  4,032
  4,410
  4,805
  5,216
  5,644
  6,088
  6,551
Working capital, $m
  12
  19
  28
  41
  58
  79
  106
  140
  180
  227
  282
  345
  416
  494
  581
  676
  779
  889
  1,007
  1,133
  1,265
  1,404
  1,551
  1,704
  1,864
  2,030
  2,204
  2,385
  2,573
  2,768
Total debt, $m
  363
  639
  1,027
  1,554
  2,251
  3,149
  4,275
  5,659
  7,322
  9,286
  11,565
  14,172
  17,111
  20,386
  23,995
  27,935
  32,201
  36,785
  41,680
  46,878
  52,373
  58,159
  64,232
  70,589
  77,229
  84,152
  91,362
  98,864
  106,664
  114,772
Total liabilities, $m
  506
  782
  1,170
  1,697
  2,394
  3,291
  4,418
  5,801
  7,465
  9,429
  11,708
  14,314
  17,254
  20,528
  24,138
  28,078
  32,344
  36,927
  41,822
  47,021
  52,516
  58,302
  64,375
  70,732
  77,371
  84,295
  91,505
  99,007
  106,807
  114,914
Total equity, $m
  155
  239
  357
  518
  731
  1,005
  1,350
  1,772
  2,280
  2,880
  3,577
  4,373
  5,271
  6,271
  7,374
  8,577
  9,880
  11,281
  12,776
  14,364
  16,043
  17,810
  19,665
  21,607
  23,636
  25,751
  27,953
  30,245
  32,628
  35,104
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  661
  1,021
  1,527
  2,215
  3,125
  4,296
  5,768
  7,573
  9,745
  12,309
  15,285
  18,687
  22,525
  26,799
  31,512
  36,655
  42,224
  48,208
  54,598
  61,385
  68,559
  76,112
  84,040
  92,339
  101,007
  110,046
  119,458
  129,252
  139,435
  150,018
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.350
  2.680
  2.870
  3.000
  3.080
  3.130
  3.170
  3.190
  3.210
  3.220
  3.230
  3.240
  3.250
  3.250
  3.250
  3.260
  3.260
  3.260
  3.260
  3.260
  3.260
  3.270
  3.270
  3.270
  3.270
  3.270
  3.270
  3.270
  3.270
  3.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  53
  105
  178
  276
  406
  572
  780
  1,033
  1,337
  1,693
  2,107
  2,576
  3,103
  3,688
  4,331
  5,031
  5,786
  6,596
  7,460
  8,375
  9,341
  10,357
  11,423
  12,537
  13,700
  14,912
  16,173
  17,486
  18,850
  20,268
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  8
  11
  16
  21
  29
  38
  50
  63
  80
  97
  118
  143
  170
  199
  232
  267
  305
  346
  388
  434
  482
  532
  584
  639
  696
  756
  818
  882
  949
Funds from operations, $m
  59
  113
  189
  292
  427
  601
  818
  1,083
  1,400
  1,773
  2,203
  2,694
  3,245
  3,858
  4,530
  5,263
  6,053
  6,901
  7,805
  8,764
  9,775
  10,839
  11,954
  13,121
  14,339
  15,608
  16,929
  18,303
  19,732
  21,217
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  7
  9
  13
  17
  22
  27
  33
  40
  47
  55
  63
  71
  79
  87
  95
  103
  110
  118
  125
  132
  139
  146
  153
  160
  167
  174
  181
  188
  195
Cash from operations, $m
  54
  106
  180
  279
  411
  579
  791
  1,050
  1,360
  1,726
  2,148
  2,631
  3,175
  3,779
  4,443
  5,168
  5,951
  6,791
  7,687
  8,638
  9,643
  10,700
  11,808
  12,968
  14,179
  15,441
  16,756
  18,123
  19,544
  21,022
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -10
  -14
  -20
  -27
  -36
  -48
  -62
  -78
  -97
  -118
  -143
  -170
  -199
  -232
  -267
  -305
  -346
  -388
  -434
  -482
  -532
  -584
  -639
  -696
  -756
  -818
  -882
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -16
  -22
  -30
  -40
  -51
  -64
  -79
  -95
  -112
  -130
  -149
  -168
  -187
  -206
  -225
  -243
  -261
  -279
  -296
  -313
  -330
  -346
  -362
  -378
  -395
  -411
  -428
  -445
  -462
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -14
  -20
  -28
  -40
  -54
  -71
  -91
  -115
  -143
  -174
  -208
  -246
  -286
  -330
  -376
  -424
  -475
  -528
  -584
  -642
  -701
  -764
  -828
  -894
  -962
  -1,034
  -1,107
  -1,184
  -1,263
  -1,344
Free cash flow, $m
  41
  87
  151
  240
  357
  508
  699
  934
  1,217
  1,552
  1,941
  2,386
  2,889
  3,449
  4,068
  4,744
  5,476
  6,263
  7,103
  7,997
  8,941
  9,936
  10,980
  12,074
  13,216
  14,407
  15,648
  16,939
  18,282
  19,677
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  190
  276
  388
  527
  697
  897
  1,127
  1,383
  1,664
  1,964
  2,280
  2,606
  2,939
  3,275
  3,609
  3,940
  4,266
  4,584
  4,895
  5,198
  5,495
  5,786
  6,073
  6,357
  6,640
  6,924
  7,210
  7,502
  7,800
  8,107
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  195
  276
  388
  527
  697
  897
  1,127
  1,383
  1,664
  1,964
  2,280
  2,606
  2,939
  3,275
  3,609
  3,940
  4,266
  4,584
  4,895
  5,198
  5,495
  5,786
  6,073
  6,357
  6,640
  6,924
  7,210
  7,502
  7,800
  8,107
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  236
  362
  539
  767
  1,054
  1,406
  1,826
  2,317
  2,881
  3,516
  4,220
  4,992
  5,828
  6,724
  7,677
  8,684
  9,741
  10,846
  11,998
  13,195
  14,436
  15,722
  17,053
  18,431
  19,856
  21,331
  22,858
  24,441
  26,082
  27,784
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -58
  -84
  -118
  -161
  -213
  -274
  -344
  -423
  -508
  -600
  -696
  -796
  -898
  -1,000
  -1,103
  -1,204
  -1,303
  -1,400
  -1,495
  -1,588
  -1,679
  -1,768
  -1,855
  -1,942
  -2,028
  -2,115
  -2,203
  -2,292
  -2,383
  -2,477
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  205
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  383
  278
  420
  606
  841
  1,132
  1,482
  1,895
  2,373
  2,916
  3,524
  4,196
  4,930
  5,724
  6,575
  7,480
  8,438
  9,446
  10,503
  11,607
  12,758
  13,955
  15,198
  16,489
  17,827
  19,216
  20,656
  22,149
  23,699
  25,308
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  367
  255
  366
  499
  652
  821
  1,001
  1,184
  1,363
  1,529
  1,673
  1,791
  1,875
  1,922
  1,930
  1,901
  1,836
  1,740
  1,617
  1,475
  1,320
  1,158
  996
  840
  694
  561
  443
  343
  259
  191
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5

Alteryx, Inc. is a United States-based provider of self-service data analytics software. The Company offers various products, such as Alteryx Designer, Alteryx Server and Alteryx Analytics Gallery. Alteryx Designer is a repeatable workflow for self-service data analytics. Alteryx Designer allows data analysts by combining data preparation, data blending, and analytics-predictive, statistical and spatial-using the same user interface. Alteryx Server is a scalable platform to deploy and share analytics. Alteryx Server accelerates time to analytical insight, and allows analysts and business users across organization to make data-driven decisions. Alteryx Analytics Gallery is an analytics cloud platform to recognize that business decision makers expect their business applications to be as engaging as the applications they use at home. Its solutions include analytic, departmental and industry. Its analytic solutions connect business analysts and decision makers to data.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alteryx, Inc. (AYX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -275.1
Price to Sales 76.8
Price to Book 300.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1100.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -660.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 59.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -23.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.5%
Return On Total Capital -77.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -163.8%
Return On Equity -77.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -187.1%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 81.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.1%
EBITDA Margin -25.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -38.4%
Operating Margin -26.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -27.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.8%
Net Profit Margin -27.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

AYX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AYX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $254 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alteryx, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Alteryx, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AYX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AYX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alteryx, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alteryx, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AYX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 60.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $72 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AYX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.5% for Alteryx, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alteryx, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AYX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AYX are equal to 7.1%.

Life of production assets of 6.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alteryx, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AYX is equal to 3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $301.818 million for Alteryx, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 61.718 million for Alteryx, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alteryx, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.2 billion.

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