Intrinsic value of AutoZone, Inc. - AZO

Previous Close

$1,119.87

  Intrinsic Value

$158.01

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

Previous close

$1,119.87

 
Intrinsic value

$158.01

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AZO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 28.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  11,445
  11,709
  12,010
  12,347
  12,722
  13,132
  13,580
  14,064
  14,585
  15,145
  15,744
  16,383
  17,063
  17,786
  18,554
  19,367
  20,227
  21,138
  22,099
  23,115
  24,186
  25,316
  26,507
  27,762
  29,084
  30,475
  31,940
  33,481
  35,103
  36,808
Variable operating expenses, $m
  9,259
  9,471
  9,714
  9,986
  10,288
  10,619
  10,980
  11,370
  11,791
  12,242
  12,694
  13,210
  13,758
  14,341
  14,960
  15,615
  16,309
  17,043
  17,819
  18,637
  19,501
  20,412
  21,373
  22,384
  23,450
  24,572
  25,753
  26,996
  28,303
  29,678
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  9,259
  9,471
  9,714
  9,986
  10,288
  10,619
  10,980
  11,370
  11,791
  12,242
  12,694
  13,210
  13,758
  14,341
  14,960
  15,615
  16,309
  17,043
  17,819
  18,637
  19,501
  20,412
  21,373
  22,384
  23,450
  24,572
  25,753
  26,996
  28,303
  29,678
Operating income, $m
  2,187
  2,238
  2,296
  2,361
  2,434
  2,513
  2,600
  2,694
  2,795
  2,903
  3,050
  3,173
  3,305
  3,445
  3,594
  3,751
  3,918
  4,094
  4,281
  4,477
  4,685
  4,904
  5,134
  5,377
  5,633
  5,903
  6,187
  6,485
  6,799
  7,130
EBITDA, $m
  2,554
  2,613
  2,680
  2,755
  2,839
  2,931
  3,030
  3,139
  3,255
  3,380
  3,513
  3,656
  3,808
  3,969
  4,140
  4,322
  4,514
  4,717
  4,932
  5,158
  5,397
  5,650
  5,915
  6,195
  6,490
  6,801
  7,128
  7,472
  7,834
  8,214
Interest expense (income), $m
  135
  270
  147
  158
  170
  184
  199
  215
  233
  253
  274
  297
  321
  347
  375
  404
  435
  468
  503
  540
  579
  620
  663
  709
  757
  808
  861
  918
  977
  1,039
  1,105
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,916
  2,091
  2,138
  2,192
  2,250
  2,315
  2,385
  2,460
  2,542
  2,629
  2,753
  2,852
  2,958
  3,071
  3,190
  3,316
  3,450
  3,592
  3,741
  3,899
  4,065
  4,241
  4,426
  4,620
  4,826
  5,042
  5,269
  5,508
  5,760
  6,025
Tax expense, $m
  517
  564
  577
  592
  608
  625
  644
  664
  686
  710
  743
  770
  799
  829
  861
  895
  932
  970
  1,010
  1,053
  1,098
  1,145
  1,195
  1,248
  1,303
  1,361
  1,423
  1,487
  1,555
  1,627
Net income, $m
  1,399
  1,526
  1,561
  1,600
  1,643
  1,690
  1,741
  1,796
  1,856
  1,919
  2,010
  2,082
  2,159
  2,242
  2,329
  2,421
  2,519
  2,622
  2,731
  2,846
  2,968
  3,096
  3,231
  3,373
  3,523
  3,680
  3,846
  4,021
  4,205
  4,398

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9,538
  9,757
  10,008
  10,290
  10,601
  10,944
  11,316
  11,720
  12,155
  12,621
  13,120
  13,652
  14,219
  14,822
  15,461
  16,139
  16,856
  17,615
  18,416
  19,262
  20,155
  21,097
  22,089
  23,135
  24,236
  25,396
  26,616
  27,901
  29,252
  30,673
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  9,538
  9,757
  10,008
  10,290
  10,601
  10,944
  11,316
  11,720
  12,155
  12,621
  13,120
  13,652
  14,219
  14,822
  15,461
  16,139
  16,856
  17,615
  18,416
  19,262
  20,155
  21,097
  22,089
  23,135
  24,236
  25,396
  26,616
  27,901
  29,252
  30,673
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
Average production assets, $m
  4,384
  4,484
  4,600
  4,729
  4,872
  5,030
  5,201
  5,386
  5,586
  5,801
  6,030
  6,275
  6,535
  6,812
  7,106
  7,417
  7,747
  8,096
  8,464
  8,853
  9,263
  9,696
  10,152
  10,633
  11,139
  11,672
  12,233
  12,823
  13,444
  14,097
Working capital, $m
  -618
  -632
  -649
  -667
  -687
  -709
  -733
  -759
  -788
  -818
  -850
  -885
  -921
  -960
  -1,002
  -1,046
  -1,092
  -1,141
  -1,193
  -1,248
  -1,306
  -1,367
  -1,431
  -1,499
  -1,571
  -1,646
  -1,725
  -1,808
  -1,896
  -1,988
Total debt, $m
  2,723
  2,920
  3,146
  3,399
  3,680
  3,988
  4,323
  4,686
  5,078
  5,497
  5,947
  6,426
  6,936
  7,478
  8,054
  8,664
  9,309
  9,992
  10,713
  11,475
  12,278
  13,126
  14,019
  14,960
  15,951
  16,995
  18,093
  19,249
  20,465
  21,745
Total liabilities, $m
  8,584
  8,781
  9,007
  9,261
  9,541
  9,849
  10,185
  10,548
  10,939
  11,359
  11,808
  12,287
  12,797
  13,340
  13,915
  14,525
  15,171
  15,853
  16,574
  17,336
  18,140
  18,987
  19,880
  20,821
  21,813
  22,856
  23,955
  25,111
  26,327
  27,606
Total equity, $m
  954
  976
  1,001
  1,029
  1,060
  1,094
  1,132
  1,172
  1,215
  1,262
  1,312
  1,365
  1,422
  1,482
  1,546
  1,614
  1,686
  1,761
  1,842
  1,926
  2,016
  2,110
  2,209
  2,313
  2,424
  2,540
  2,662
  2,790
  2,925
  3,067
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9,538
  9,757
  10,008
  10,290
  10,601
  10,943
  11,317
  11,720
  12,154
  12,621
  13,120
  13,652
  14,219
  14,822
  15,461
  16,139
  16,857
  17,614
  18,416
  19,262
  20,156
  21,097
  22,089
  23,134
  24,237
  25,396
  26,617
  27,901
  29,252
  30,673
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.850
  2.990
  3.140
  3.300
  3.470
  3.640
  3.820
  4.000
  4.180
  4.360
  4.530
  4.710
  4.880
  5.050
  5.210
  5.370
  5.520
  5.670
  5.820
  5.960
  6.090
  6.220
  6.350
  6.470
  6.580
  6.690
  6.800
  6.900
  7.000
  7.090
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,399
  1,526
  1,561
  1,600
  1,643
  1,690
  1,741
  1,796
  1,856
  1,919
  2,010
  2,082
  2,159
  2,242
  2,329
  2,421
  2,519
  2,622
  2,731
  2,846
  2,968
  3,096
  3,231
  3,373
  3,523
  3,680
  3,846
  4,021
  4,205
  4,398
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  367
  375
  384
  394
  405
  417
  430
  445
  460
  477
  464
  483
  503
  524
  547
  571
  596
  623
  651
  681
  713
  746
  781
  818
  857
  898
  941
  986
  1,034
  1,084
Funds from operations, $m
  1,766
  1,901
  1,945
  1,994
  2,048
  2,107
  2,171
  2,241
  2,316
  2,396
  2,473
  2,565
  2,662
  2,766
  2,875
  2,992
  3,115
  3,245
  3,382
  3,527
  3,680
  3,842
  4,012
  4,191
  4,380
  4,578
  4,787
  5,007
  5,239
  5,482
Change in working capital, $m
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
Cash from operations, $m
  1,779
  1,916
  1,961
  2,012
  2,068
  2,129
  2,195
  2,267
  2,344
  2,426
  2,506
  2,599
  2,699
  2,805
  2,917
  3,035
  3,161
  3,294
  3,434
  3,582
  3,738
  3,903
  4,076
  4,259
  4,451
  4,653
  4,866
  5,091
  5,326
  5,574
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -331
  -337
  -345
  -354
  -364
  -375
  -387
  -400
  -414
  -430
  -446
  -464
  -483
  -503
  -524
  -547
  -571
  -596
  -623
  -651
  -681
  -713
  -746
  -781
  -818
  -857
  -898
  -941
  -986
  -1,034
New CAPEX, $m
  -85
  -101
  -115
  -129
  -143
  -157
  -171
  -185
  -200
  -214
  -229
  -245
  -261
  -277
  -294
  -311
  -330
  -349
  -368
  -389
  -410
  -433
  -456
  -481
  -506
  -533
  -561
  -590
  -621
  -653
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -416
  -438
  -460
  -483
  -507
  -532
  -558
  -585
  -614
  -644
  -675
  -709
  -744
  -780
  -818
  -858
  -901
  -945
  -991
  -1,040
  -1,091
  -1,146
  -1,202
  -1,262
  -1,324
  -1,390
  -1,459
  -1,531
  -1,607
  -1,687
Free cash flow, $m
  1,363
  1,478
  1,501
  1,529
  1,561
  1,597
  1,637
  1,681
  1,730
  1,782
  1,830
  1,891
  1,956
  2,025
  2,099
  2,177
  2,261
  2,349
  2,443
  2,542
  2,647
  2,757
  2,874
  2,997
  3,127
  3,264
  3,408
  3,559
  3,719
  3,887
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2,283
  197
  226
  253
  281
  308
  335
  363
  391
  420
  449
  479
  510
  542
  575
  610
  646
  683
  721
  762
  804
  847
  893
  941
  991
  1,044
  1,099
  1,156
  1,216
  1,279
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1,075
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1,208
  197
  226
  253
  281
  308
  335
  363
  391
  420
  449
  479
  510
  542
  575
  610
  646
  683
  721
  762
  804
  847
  893
  941
  991
  1,044
  1,099
  1,156
  1,216
  1,279
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  155
  1,675
  1,727
  1,782
  1,842
  1,905
  1,973
  2,044
  2,121
  2,202
  2,279
  2,370
  2,466
  2,567
  2,674
  2,787
  2,906
  3,032
  3,164
  3,304
  3,450
  3,605
  3,767
  3,938
  4,118
  4,307
  4,506
  4,715
  4,935
  5,166
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2,474
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -2,320
  1,653
  1,702
  1,754
  1,810
  1,871
  1,935
  2,004
  2,077
  2,155
  2,229
  2,317
  2,409
  2,507
  2,610
  2,719
  2,835
  2,956
  3,084
  3,219
  3,361
  3,511
  3,668
  3,834
  4,008
  4,191
  4,384
  4,587
  4,800
  5,024
Discount rate, %
  10.20
  10.71
  11.25
  11.81
  12.40
  13.02
  13.67
  14.35
  15.07
  15.82
  16.61
  17.45
  18.32
  19.23
  20.20
  21.21
  22.27
  23.38
  24.55
  25.77
  27.06
  28.42
  29.84
  31.33
  32.90
  34.54
  36.27
  38.08
  39.99
  41.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -2,105
  1,349
  1,236
  1,122
  1,009
  898
  789
  685
  587
  496
  411
  336
  271
  214
  165
  125
  93
  67
  48
  33
  22
  14
  9
  6
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Autozone, Inc. is a retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories in the United States. The Company operates through the Auto Parts Locations segment. The Auto Parts Locations segment is a retailer and distributor of automotive parts and accessories. As of August 27, 2016, the Company operated through 5,814 locations in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico and Brazil. The Company's stores carry product lines for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products. The Company's other operating segments include ALLDATA, which produces, sells and maintains diagnostic and repair information software used in the automotive repair industry; E-commerce, which includes direct sales to customers through www.autozone.com, and AutoAnything, which includes direct sales to customers through www.autoanything.com.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AutoZone, Inc. (AZO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.3
Price to Sales 2.9
Price to Book -21.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 30.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 11%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -355.8%
Total Debt to Equity -359.2%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Return On Total Capital 37.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.4%
Return On Equity -79.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -73.5%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.6%
EBITDA Margin 21.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Operating Margin 19.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 17.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Net Profit Margin 11.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Effective Tax Rate 33.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

AZO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AZO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $11221 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AutoZone, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of AutoZone, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AZO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.2%, whose default value for AZO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AutoZone, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AutoZone, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AZO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AZO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for AutoZone, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AutoZone, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AZO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AZO are equal to 38.3%.

Life of production assets of 13 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AutoZone, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AZO is equal to -5.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-1520.355 million for AutoZone, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.963 million for AutoZone, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AutoZone, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $28.0 billion.

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