Intrinsic value of Natus Medical - BABY

Previous Close

$34.80

  Intrinsic Value

$27.66

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-21%

Previous close

$34.80

 
Intrinsic value

$27.66

 
Up/down potential

-21%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BABY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
Revenue, $m
  536
  571
  609
  648
  688
  730
  774
  820
  868
  917
  969
  1,024
  1,080
  1,140
  1,201
  1,266
  1,334
  1,405
  1,479
  1,557
  1,638
  1,724
  1,813
  1,907
  2,005
  2,108
  2,216
  2,329
  2,448
  2,573
Variable operating expenses, $m
  456
  484
  514
  544
  576
  609
  644
  680
  717
  757
  763
  806
  850
  897
  946
  997
  1,050
  1,106
  1,164
  1,225
  1,289
  1,357
  1,427
  1,501
  1,578
  1,659
  1,744
  1,833
  1,927
  2,025
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  456
  484
  514
  544
  576
  609
  644
  680
  717
  757
  763
  806
  850
  897
  946
  997
  1,050
  1,106
  1,164
  1,225
  1,289
  1,357
  1,427
  1,501
  1,578
  1,659
  1,744
  1,833
  1,927
  2,025
Operating income, $m
  80
  87
  95
  103
  112
  121
  130
  140
  150
  161
  206
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  284
  299
  315
  332
  349
  367
  386
  406
  427
  449
  472
  496
  521
  548
EBITDA, $m
  131
  140
  149
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  213
  225
  237
  251
  265
  279
  294
  310
  327
  344
  362
  381
  401
  422
  444
  467
  491
  516
  543
  571
  600
  630
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
Earnings before tax, $m
  71
  78
  85
  92
  99
  107
  115
  123
  132
  141
  185
  195
  206
  216
  228
  240
  252
  265
  279
  293
  308
  324
  340
  357
  375
  394
  414
  435
  456
  479
Tax expense, $m
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  50
  53
  56
  58
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  129
Net income, $m
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  194
  203
  214
  225
  236
  248
  261
  274
  288
  302
  317
  333
  350

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  759
  809
  862
  917
  975
  1,034
  1,097
  1,161
  1,229
  1,299
  1,373
  1,450
  1,530
  1,614
  1,702
  1,794
  1,889
  1,990
  2,095
  2,205
  2,321
  2,441
  2,568
  2,701
  2,840
  2,986
  3,139
  3,299
  3,467
  3,644
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  759
  809
  862
  917
  975
  1,034
  1,097
  1,161
  1,229
  1,299
  1,373
  1,450
  1,530
  1,614
  1,702
  1,794
  1,889
  1,990
  2,095
  2,205
  2,321
  2,441
  2,568
  2,701
  2,840
  2,986
  3,139
  3,299
  3,467
  3,644
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.707
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
Average production assets, $m
  164
  175
  187
  199
  211
  224
  238
  252
  266
  282
  298
  314
  332
  350
  369
  389
  410
  431
  454
  478
  503
  529
  557
  585
  616
  647
  680
  715
  752
  790
Working capital, $m
  133
  142
  152
  161
  171
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  255
  269
  284
  299
  315
  332
  350
  368
  388
  408
  429
  451
  475
  499
  525
  552
  580
  610
  641
Total debt, $m
  174
  194
  216
  238
  261
  285
  311
  337
  364
  393
  423
  454
  486
  520
  556
  593
  632
  672
  715
  760
  806
  855
  907
  960
  1,017
  1,076
  1,138
  1,203
  1,271
  1,342
Total liabilities, $m
  307
  328
  349
  372
  395
  419
  444
  470
  498
  526
  556
  587
  620
  654
  689
  726
  765
  806
  849
  893
  940
  989
  1,040
  1,094
  1,150
  1,209
  1,271
  1,336
  1,404
  1,476
Total equity, $m
  451
  482
  513
  546
  580
  615
  652
  691
  731
  773
  817
  863
  910
  960
  1,013
  1,067
  1,124
  1,184
  1,247
  1,312
  1,381
  1,453
  1,528
  1,607
  1,690
  1,777
  1,868
  1,963
  2,063
  2,168
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  758
  810
  862
  918
  975
  1,034
  1,096
  1,161
  1,229
  1,299
  1,373
  1,450
  1,530
  1,614
  1,702
  1,793
  1,889
  1,990
  2,096
  2,205
  2,321
  2,442
  2,568
  2,701
  2,840
  2,986
  3,139
  3,299
  3,467
  3,644
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595
  0.595

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  194
  203
  214
  225
  236
  248
  261
  274
  288
  302
  317
  333
  350
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  52
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
Funds from operations, $m
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  166
  175
  185
  194
  205
  215
  227
  238
  251
  264
  277
  291
  306
  322
  338
  355
  373
  392
  411
  432
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
Cash from operations, $m
  95
  101
  106
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  153
  162
  171
  180
  189
  199
  210
  221
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  298
  314
  329
  346
  364
  382
  401
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -106
  -110
  -116
Free cash flow, $m
  68
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  95
  101
  106
  112
  108
  114
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  156
  165
  173
  182
  191
  201
  212
  222
  234
  246
  258
  271
  285
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  19
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  240
  253
  265
  279
  293
  307
  323
  339
  356
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  58
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  145
  152
  160
  169
  177
  186
  196
  206
  216
  227
  239
  251
Discount rate, %
  4.60
  4.83
  5.07
  5.33
  5.59
  5.87
  6.16
  6.47
  6.80
  7.14
  7.49
  7.87
  8.26
  8.67
  9.11
  9.56
  10.04
  10.54
  11.07
  11.62
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.13
  14.84
  15.58
  16.36
  17.17
  18.03
  18.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  56
  57
  57
  57
  57
  56
  55
  53
  52
  49
  42
  40
  37
  35
  32
  29
  26
  23
  20
  17
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Natus Medical Incorporated is a provider of newborn care and neurology healthcare products and services used for the screening, diagnosis, detection, treatment, monitoring and tracking of common medical ailments in newborn care, hearing impairment, neurological dysfunction, epilepsy, sleep disorders, neuromuscular diseases and balance and mobility disorders. The Company's product offerings include computerized neurodiagnostic systems for audiology, neurology, polysomnography, and neonatology, as well as newborn care products, such as hearing screening systems, phototherapy devices for the treatment of newborn jaundice, head-cooling products for the treatment of brain injury in newborns, incubators to control the newborn's environment, and software systems for managing and tracking disorders and diseases for public health laboratories. The Company is organized into three strategic business units: Neurology, Newborn Care and Otometrics.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Natus Medical (BABY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.6
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 33.6%
Total Debt to Equity 33.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Return On Total Capital 9.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Equity 10.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.8%
EBITDA Margin 18.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Operating Margin 14.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Net Profit Margin 11.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Effective Tax Rate 21.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

BABY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BABY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $500.97 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Natus Medical. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Natus Medical. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BABY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.6%, whose default value for BABY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Natus Medical, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Natus Medical.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BABY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BABY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Natus Medical.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Natus Medical. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BABY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BABY are equal to 30.7%.

Life of production assets of 9.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Natus Medical operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BABY is equal to 24.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $422.097 million for Natus Medical - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.16 million for Natus Medical is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Natus Medical at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Natus Appoints Drew Davies Executive Vice-President and CFO   [Sep-17-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Baby Steps: Natus Medical Hits Its Expectations   [Jul-26-18 04:13PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Natus Medical, Grubhub, and Corning Jumped Today   [Jul-25-18 04:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Natus Medical: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Natus Medical appoints Kennedy as CEO, Paul as chair   [Jul-11-18 05:18PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Natus Medical Announces Leadership Changes   [05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hedge fund Voce's nominees elected to Natus board   [Jun-24-18 01:13PM  Reuters]
▶ Hedge fund Voce's nominees elected to Natus board   [Jun-22-18 02:11PM  Reuters]
▶ Natus Medical Comments on ISS Report   [Jun-11-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Natus Annual Meeting - Whats at Stake?   [Jun-06-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Natus to Present at Jefferies 2018 Healthcare Conference   [May-24-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Natus Medical Files Definitive Proxy Materials   [May-18-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Natus Medical: A Tale of Two Halves of the Year?   [Apr-26-18 04:04PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Natus Medical: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Spat, Weak Guidance Lead to Board Fight at Natus Medical   [Mar-20-18 01:40PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Natus to Present at 30th Annual Roth Conference   [Mar-05-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Natus Announces $30 Million Share Repurchase Program   [Feb-22-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Natus Medical Hears a Rebound Coming   [Feb-09-18 04:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Natus Medical Incorporated Stock Lost 19% in January   [Feb-08-18 03:05PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Natus Medical reports 4Q loss   [07:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Natus Medical Inc Sank Lower Today   [Jan-08-18 12:32PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 4 Growth Stocks to Pick From a Choppy MedTech Market   [Dec-14-17 03:05PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Strength: Natus Medical   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Stocks To Watch: Natus Medical Sees Relative Strength Rating Rise To 84   [Nov-08-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Natus Medical Shows Rising Relative Strength; Still Shy Of Key Benchmark   [Oct-31-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Oh Baby! Natus Medical Inc. Beats and Raises Guidance   [Oct-26-17 04:07PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Natus Medical reports 3Q loss   [Oct-25-17 06:23AM  Associated Press]

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