Intrinsic value of Booz Allen Hamilton Holding - BAH

Previous Close

$38.11

  Intrinsic Value

$32.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-14%

  Value-price divergence*

+10%

Previous close

$38.11

 
Intrinsic value

$32.96

 
Up/down potential

-14%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+10%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BAH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.36
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  5,804
  6,094
  6,399
  6,719
  7,055
  7,408
  7,778
  8,167
  8,575
  9,004
  9,454
  9,927
  10,423
  10,944
  11,492
  12,066
  12,669
  13,303
  13,968
  14,666
  15,400
  16,170
  16,978
  17,827
  18,718
  19,654
  20,637
  21,669
  22,752
  23,890
  25,085
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  5,489
  5,756
  6,036
  6,330
  6,638
  6,962
  7,303
  7,660
  8,035
  8,429
  8,685
  9,120
  9,576
  10,054
  10,557
  11,085
  11,639
  12,221
  12,832
  13,474
  14,147
  14,855
  15,598
  16,377
  17,196
  18,056
  18,959
  19,907
  20,902
  21,947
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  154
  157
  161
  165
  169
  174
  178
  182
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,320
  5,578
  5,847
  6,130
  6,426
  6,736
  7,063
  7,406
  7,766
  8,144
  8,540
  8,799
  9,237
  9,696
  10,177
  10,683
  11,214
  11,771
  12,357
  12,971
  13,617
  14,293
  15,005
  15,752
  16,534
  17,357
  18,221
  19,128
  20,081
  21,080
  22,129
Operating income, $m
  484
  516
  552
  590
  629
  671
  715
  761
  809
  860
  914
  1,127
  1,187
  1,249
  1,314
  1,383
  1,455
  1,531
  1,611
  1,695
  1,783
  1,876
  1,974
  2,076
  2,184
  2,297
  2,416
  2,541
  2,672
  2,810
  2,955
EBITDA, $m
  544
  686
  723
  761
  802
  844
  889
  936
  985
  1,037
  1,092
  1,149
  1,210
  1,273
  1,340
  1,410
  1,483
  1,561
  1,642
  1,727
  1,817
  1,912
  2,011
  2,115
  2,225
  2,340
  2,461
  2,588
  2,722
  2,862
  3,010
Interest expense (income), $m
  49
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  180
  191
  202
  214
  227
  240
  255
  269
  285
  301
  318
  336
Earnings before tax, $m
  412
  464
  496
  529
  563
  600
  638
  678
  721
  765
  812
  1,019
  1,070
  1,125
  1,182
  1,242
  1,305
  1,372
  1,442
  1,515
  1,593
  1,674
  1,759
  1,849
  1,943
  2,042
  2,146
  2,256
  2,371
  2,492
  2,619
Tax expense, $m
  160
  125
  134
  143
  152
  162
  172
  183
  195
  207
  219
  275
  289
  304
  319
  335
  352
  370
  389
  409
  430
  452
  475
  499
  525
  551
  580
  609
  640
  673
  707
Net income, $m
  252
  339
  362
  386
  411
  438
  466
  495
  526
  559
  593
  744
  781
  821
  863
  907
  953
  1,002
  1,053
  1,106
  1,163
  1,222
  1,284
  1,350
  1,419
  1,491
  1,567
  1,647
  1,731
  1,819
  1,912

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  217
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,373
  3,314
  3,480
  3,654
  3,836
  4,028
  4,229
  4,441
  4,663
  4,896
  5,141
  5,398
  5,668
  5,951
  6,249
  6,561
  6,889
  7,234
  7,595
  7,975
  8,374
  8,793
  9,232
  9,694
  10,179
  10,688
  11,222
  11,783
  12,372
  12,991
  13,640
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,156
  3,314
  3,480
  3,654
  3,836
  4,028
  4,229
  4,441
  4,663
  4,896
  5,141
  5,398
  5,668
  5,951
  6,249
  6,561
  6,889
  7,234
  7,595
  7,975
  8,374
  8,793
  9,232
  9,694
  10,179
  10,688
  11,222
  11,783
  12,372
  12,991
  13,640
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
Average production assets, $m
  381
  402
  422
  443
  466
  489
  513
  539
  566
  594
  624
  655
  688
  722
  758
  796
  836
  878
  922
  968
  1,016
  1,067
  1,121
  1,177
  1,235
  1,297
  1,362
  1,430
  1,502
  1,577
  1,656
Working capital, $m
  193
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  288
  302
  317
  333
  350
  367
  386
  405
  425
  447
  469
  492
  517
  543
  570
  598
  628
  660
  693
  727
Total debt, $m
  1,663
  1,601
  1,738
  1,882
  2,033
  2,191
  2,358
  2,532
  2,716
  2,908
  3,110
  3,323
  3,546
  3,780
  4,025
  4,284
  4,555
  4,839
  5,138
  5,452
  5,781
  6,127
  6,490
  6,871
  7,272
  7,692
  8,133
  8,597
  9,083
  9,594
  10,131
Total liabilities, $m
  2,800
  2,737
  2,874
  3,018
  3,169
  3,327
  3,494
  3,668
  3,852
  4,044
  4,246
  4,459
  4,682
  4,916
  5,161
  5,420
  5,691
  5,975
  6,274
  6,588
  6,917
  7,263
  7,626
  8,007
  8,408
  8,828
  9,269
  9,733
  10,219
  10,730
  11,267
Total equity, $m
  574
  577
  605
  636
  668
  701
  736
  773
  811
  852
  895
  939
  986
  1,036
  1,087
  1,142
  1,199
  1,259
  1,322
  1,388
  1,457
  1,530
  1,606
  1,687
  1,771
  1,860
  1,953
  2,050
  2,153
  2,260
  2,373
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,374
  3,314
  3,479
  3,654
  3,837
  4,028
  4,230
  4,441
  4,663
  4,896
  5,141
  5,398
  5,668
  5,952
  6,248
  6,562
  6,890
  7,234
  7,596
  7,976
  8,374
  8,793
  9,232
  9,694
  10,179
  10,688
  11,222
  11,783
  12,372
  12,990
  13,640
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.897
  2.780
  2.870
  2.960
  3.050
  3.130
  3.200
  3.280
  3.350
  3.410
  3.480
  3.540
  3.600
  3.650
  3.700
  3.750
  3.800
  3.840
  3.890
  3.930
  3.970
  4.000
  4.040
  4.070
  4.110
  4.140
  4.170
  4.190
  4.220
  4.240
  4.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.113
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  252
  339
  362
  386
  411
  438
  466
  495
  526
  559
  593
  744
  781
  821
  863
  907
  953
  1,002
  1,053
  1,106
  1,163
  1,222
  1,284
  1,350
  1,419
  1,491
  1,567
  1,647
  1,731
  1,819
  1,912
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  60
  171
  171
  172
  173
  173
  174
  175
  176
  177
  178
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
Funds from operations, $m
  413
  510
  533
  558
  584
  611
  640
  670
  702
  736
  771
  765
  804
  845
  888
  933
  981
  1,031
  1,083
  1,138
  1,197
  1,257
  1,322
  1,389
  1,460
  1,534
  1,612
  1,695
  1,781
  1,872
  1,967
Change in working capital, $m
  31
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
Cash from operations, $m
  382
  501
  524
  549
  574
  601
  629
  659
  690
  723
  758
  752
  790
  830
  872
  917
  963
  1,012
  1,064
  1,118
  1,175
  1,235
  1,298
  1,364
  1,434
  1,507
  1,584
  1,665
  1,749
  1,839
  1,932
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
New CAPEX, $m
  -54
  -21
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -301
  -34
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -120
  -125
  -132
Free cash flow, $m
  81
  467
  491
  513
  537
  562
  589
  616
  645
  676
  708
  700
  735
  773
  812
  853
  897
  943
  991
  1,041
  1,095
  1,150
  1,209
  1,271
  1,336
  1,404
  1,476
  1,551
  1,630
  1,714
  1,801
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  51
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  175
  183
  193
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  285
  299
  314
  329
  346
  363
  381
  400
  420
  441
  463
  487
  511
  537
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  42
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  175
  183
  193
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  285
  299
  314
  329
  346
  363
  381
  400
  420
  441
  463
  487
  511
  537
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  123
  598
  628
  657
  688
  721
  755
  791
  829
  869
  910
  912
  958
  1,007
  1,058
  1,112
  1,168
  1,227
  1,290
  1,355
  1,424
  1,496
  1,572
  1,652
  1,736
  1,824
  1,917
  2,015
  2,117
  2,224
  2,338
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -166
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  596
  599
  627
  656
  687
  720
  754
  790
  828
  868
  867
  911
  957
  1,006
  1,057
  1,111
  1,167
  1,227
  1,289
  1,355
  1,423
  1,496
  1,572
  1,652
  1,736
  1,824
  1,917
  2,014
  2,117
  2,224
Discount rate, %
 
  8.90
  9.35
  9.81
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.93
  12.52
  13.15
  13.81
  14.50
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.43
  20.40
  21.42
  22.49
  23.61
  24.80
  26.03
  27.34
  28.70
  30.14
  31.65
  33.23
  34.89
  36.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  547
  501
  473
  443
  411
  377
  343
  307
  272
  238
  196
  166
  139
  115
  93
  73
  57
  43
  32
  23
  17
  11
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation is a holding company. The Company is a provider of management and technology, consulting and engineering services to the United States and international governments, corporations and not-for-profit organizations. The Company's client base includes government, commercial and international clients. Its commercial clients in the United States are primarily in the financial services, healthcare and life sciences, energy, high-technology manufacturing, retail, and automotive industries. Its international clients are primarily in the Middle East, along with a presence in Southeast Asia. The Company's functional service offerings include Systems Delivery, Engineering and Science, Cyber, Analytics and Consulting. The Company's innovation service offerings are Digital, Cyber Futures, Next Generation Analytics and Directed Energy.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Booz Allen Hamilton Holding (BAH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.5
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 9.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -19.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 20.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 256.1%
Total Debt to Equity 289.7%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Return On Total Capital 11.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Return On Equity 51.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 93.3%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 53.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.2%
EBITDA Margin 9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Operating Margin 8.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Net Profit Margin 4.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Effective Tax Rate 38.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
Payout Ratio 36.9%

BAH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BAH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5804 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Booz Allen Hamilton Holding. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Booz Allen Hamilton Holding. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BAH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.9%, whose default value for BAH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Booz Allen Hamilton Holding, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Booz Allen Hamilton Holding.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BAH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $87 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BAH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Booz Allen Hamilton Holding.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Booz Allen Hamilton Holding. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BAH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BAH are equal to 6.6%.

Life of production assets of 30.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Booz Allen Hamilton Holding operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BAH is equal to 2.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $574 million for Booz Allen Hamilton Holding - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 148.661 million for Booz Allen Hamilton Holding is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Booz Allen Hamilton Holding at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ A Booz Allen vet will lead this government consulting firm as its new CEO   [Oct-04-17 10:45AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Booz Allen beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Aug-07-17 11:57PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of BAH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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