Intrinsic value of Baxter International - BAX

Previous Close

$69.46

  Intrinsic Value

$12.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

Previous close

$69.46

 
Intrinsic value

$12.46

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BAX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 37.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.10
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.62
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
Revenue, $m
  11,522
  12,523
  13,565
  14,649
  15,776
  16,946
  18,163
  19,427
  20,741
  22,108
  23,529
  25,009
  26,549
  28,153
  29,824
  31,567
  33,386
  35,283
  37,265
  39,334
  41,497
  43,758
  46,123
  48,596
  51,185
  53,895
  56,732
  59,704
  62,818
  66,080
Variable operating expenses, $m
  10,663
  11,551
  12,475
  13,436
  14,435
  15,473
  16,551
  17,672
  18,838
  20,049
  20,862
  22,174
  23,539
  24,962
  26,444
  27,989
  29,601
  31,284
  33,040
  34,875
  36,793
  38,798
  40,894
  43,088
  45,383
  47,786
  50,302
  52,937
  55,697
  58,589
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  10,663
  11,551
  12,475
  13,436
  14,435
  15,473
  16,551
  17,672
  18,838
  20,049
  20,862
  22,174
  23,539
  24,962
  26,444
  27,989
  29,601
  31,284
  33,040
  34,875
  36,793
  38,798
  40,894
  43,088
  45,383
  47,786
  50,302
  52,937
  55,697
  58,589
Operating income, $m
  859
  972
  1,090
  1,213
  1,341
  1,474
  1,612
  1,755
  1,904
  2,059
  2,667
  2,835
  3,009
  3,191
  3,381
  3,578
  3,784
  3,999
  4,224
  4,459
  4,704
  4,960
  5,228
  5,509
  5,802
  6,109
  6,431
  6,768
  7,121
  7,490
EBITDA, $m
  1,938
  2,106
  2,281
  2,464
  2,653
  2,850
  3,055
  3,267
  3,488
  3,718
  3,957
  4,206
  4,465
  4,735
  5,016
  5,309
  5,615
  5,934
  6,267
  6,615
  6,979
  7,359
  7,757
  8,173
  8,608
  9,064
  9,541
  10,041
  10,564
  11,113
Interest expense (income), $m
  99
  190
  229
  270
  312
  356
  402
  450
  500
  551
  605
  661
  719
  779
  842
  908
  976
  1,047
  1,121
  1,199
  1,280
  1,364
  1,452
  1,545
  1,641
  1,742
  1,848
  1,958
  2,074
  2,195
  2,323
Earnings before tax, $m
  669
  743
  821
  901
  984
  1,071
  1,161
  1,255
  1,352
  1,454
  2,006
  2,116
  2,230
  2,349
  2,473
  2,602
  2,737
  2,878
  3,025
  3,179
  3,340
  3,508
  3,684
  3,867
  4,060
  4,261
  4,473
  4,694
  4,925
  5,168
Tax expense, $m
  181
  201
  222
  243
  266
  289
  314
  339
  365
  392
  542
  571
  602
  634
  668
  703
  739
  777
  817
  858
  902
  947
  995
  1,044
  1,096
  1,151
  1,208
  1,267
  1,330
  1,395
Net income, $m
  488
  543
  599
  658
  719
  782
  848
  916
  987
  1,061
  1,465
  1,545
  1,628
  1,715
  1,805
  1,900
  1,998
  2,101
  2,209
  2,321
  2,438
  2,561
  2,689
  2,823
  2,964
  3,111
  3,265
  3,426
  3,595
  3,773

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  18,031
  19,598
  21,229
  22,925
  24,688
  26,520
  28,424
  30,403
  32,459
  34,598
  36,822
  39,137
  41,547
  44,058
  46,674
  49,401
  52,247
  55,216
  58,317
  61,556
  64,940
  68,479
  72,179
  76,050
  80,102
  84,343
  88,783
  93,434
  98,306
  103,411
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  18,031
  19,598
  21,229
  22,925
  24,688
  26,520
  28,424
  30,403
  32,459
  34,598
  36,822
  39,137
  41,547
  44,058
  46,674
  49,401
  52,247
  55,216
  58,317
  61,556
  64,940
  68,479
  72,179
  76,050
  80,102
  84,343
  88,783
  93,434
  98,306
  103,411
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
Average production assets, $m
  7,075
  7,689
  8,329
  8,995
  9,686
  10,405
  11,152
  11,928
  12,735
  13,574
  14,447
  15,355
  16,301
  17,286
  18,312
  19,382
  20,499
  21,664
  22,880
  24,151
  25,479
  26,867
  28,319
  29,838
  31,428
  33,091
  34,834
  36,658
  38,570
  40,573
Working capital, $m
  1,152
  1,252
  1,357
  1,465
  1,578
  1,695
  1,816
  1,943
  2,074
  2,211
  2,353
  2,501
  2,655
  2,815
  2,982
  3,157
  3,339
  3,528
  3,726
  3,933
  4,150
  4,376
  4,612
  4,860
  5,118
  5,389
  5,673
  5,970
  6,282
  6,608
Total debt, $m
  4,237
  4,994
  5,782
  6,601
  7,452
  8,337
  9,257
  10,212
  11,206
  12,239
  13,313
  14,431
  15,595
  16,808
  18,071
  19,389
  20,763
  22,197
  23,695
  25,259
  26,894
  28,603
  30,391
  32,260
  34,217
  36,265
  38,410
  40,657
  43,010
  45,476
Total liabilities, $m
  8,709
  9,466
  10,254
  11,073
  11,924
  12,809
  13,729
  14,684
  15,678
  16,711
  17,785
  18,903
  20,067
  21,280
  22,543
  23,861
  25,235
  26,669
  28,167
  29,731
  31,366
  33,075
  34,863
  36,732
  38,689
  40,737
  42,882
  45,129
  47,482
  49,948
Total equity, $m
  9,322
  10,132
  10,975
  11,852
  12,764
  13,711
  14,695
  15,718
  16,781
  17,887
  19,037
  20,234
  21,480
  22,778
  24,130
  25,541
  27,012
  28,547
  30,150
  31,824
  33,574
  35,404
  37,317
  39,318
  41,413
  43,605
  45,901
  48,305
  50,824
  53,464
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  18,031
  19,598
  21,229
  22,925
  24,688
  26,520
  28,424
  30,402
  32,459
  34,598
  36,822
  39,137
  41,547
  44,058
  46,673
  49,402
  52,247
  55,216
  58,317
  61,555
  64,940
  68,479
  72,180
  76,050
  80,102
  84,342
  88,783
  93,434
  98,306
  103,412
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.450
  0.490
  0.530
  0.560
  0.580
  0.610
  0.630
  0.650
  0.670
  0.680
  0.700
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  488
  543
  599
  658
  719
  782
  848
  916
  987
  1,061
  1,465
  1,545
  1,628
  1,715
  1,805
  1,900
  1,998
  2,101
  2,209
  2,321
  2,438
  2,561
  2,689
  2,823
  2,964
  3,111
  3,265
  3,426
  3,595
  3,773
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,079
  1,134
  1,191
  1,250
  1,312
  1,376
  1,443
  1,512
  1,584
  1,659
  1,290
  1,371
  1,455
  1,543
  1,635
  1,731
  1,830
  1,934
  2,043
  2,156
  2,275
  2,399
  2,529
  2,664
  2,806
  2,955
  3,110
  3,273
  3,444
  3,623
Funds from operations, $m
  1,567
  1,677
  1,790
  1,908
  2,031
  2,158
  2,291
  2,428
  2,572
  2,720
  2,754
  2,916
  3,083
  3,258
  3,440
  3,630
  3,829
  4,035
  4,251
  4,477
  4,713
  4,960
  5,218
  5,487
  5,770
  6,065
  6,375
  6,699
  7,039
  7,395
Change in working capital, $m
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  126
  131
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
Cash from operations, $m
  1,471
  1,576
  1,686
  1,800
  1,918
  2,041
  2,169
  2,302
  2,440
  2,584
  2,612
  2,768
  2,929
  3,098
  3,273
  3,456
  3,647
  3,846
  4,053
  4,270
  4,497
  4,733
  4,981
  5,240
  5,511
  5,794
  6,091
  6,402
  6,728
  7,069
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -579
  -632
  -687
  -744
  -803
  -865
  -929
  -996
  -1,065
  -1,137
  -1,212
  -1,290
  -1,371
  -1,455
  -1,543
  -1,635
  -1,731
  -1,830
  -1,934
  -2,043
  -2,156
  -2,275
  -2,399
  -2,529
  -2,664
  -2,806
  -2,955
  -3,110
  -3,273
  -3,444
New CAPEX, $m
  -591
  -615
  -640
  -665
  -692
  -719
  -747
  -776
  -807
  -839
  -873
  -908
  -946
  -985
  -1,026
  -1,070
  -1,116
  -1,165
  -1,217
  -1,271
  -1,328
  -1,388
  -1,452
  -1,519
  -1,589
  -1,664
  -1,742
  -1,825
  -1,912
  -2,003
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,170
  -1,247
  -1,327
  -1,409
  -1,495
  -1,584
  -1,676
  -1,772
  -1,872
  -1,976
  -2,085
  -2,198
  -2,317
  -2,440
  -2,569
  -2,705
  -2,847
  -2,995
  -3,151
  -3,314
  -3,484
  -3,663
  -3,851
  -4,048
  -4,253
  -4,470
  -4,697
  -4,935
  -5,185
  -5,447
Free cash flow, $m
  301
  330
  360
  391
  423
  458
  493
  530
  568
  608
  528
  570
  613
  657
  703
  751
  800
  850
  903
  957
  1,012
  1,070
  1,130
  1,193
  1,257
  1,325
  1,395
  1,467
  1,543
  1,622
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  725
  757
  788
  819
  851
  885
  920
  956
  993
  1,033
  1,074
  1,118
  1,164
  1,212
  1,264
  1,317
  1,374
  1,434
  1,498
  1,564
  1,635
  1,709
  1,787
  1,870
  1,957
  2,048
  2,145
  2,246
  2,353
  2,466
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  283
  267
  244
  219
  193
  165
  137
  107
  76
  44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,008
  1,024
  1,032
  1,038
  1,044
  1,050
  1,057
  1,063
  1,069
  1,077
  1,074
  1,118
  1,164
  1,212
  1,264
  1,317
  1,374
  1,434
  1,498
  1,564
  1,635
  1,709
  1,787
  1,870
  1,957
  2,048
  2,145
  2,246
  2,353
  2,466
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,309
  1,354
  1,391
  1,429
  1,468
  1,508
  1,549
  1,592
  1,638
  1,685
  1,602
  1,688
  1,777
  1,870
  1,967
  2,068
  2,174
  2,285
  2,400
  2,521
  2,647
  2,779
  2,918
  3,062
  3,214
  3,373
  3,539
  3,714
  3,896
  4,088
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -771
  -810
  -843
  -877
  -911
  -947
  -984
  -1,023
  -1,063
  -1,106
  -1,150
  -1,197
  -1,246
  -1,298
  -1,353
  -1,410
  -1,471
  -1,535
  -1,603
  -1,674
  -1,750
  -1,829
  -1,913
  -2,001
  -2,094
  -2,193
  -2,296
  -2,404
  -2,519
  -2,639
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  573
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,111
  544
  548
  552
  556
  560
  565
  570
  574
  579
  452
  491
  531
  572
  614
  658
  703
  749
  797
  846
  897
  950
  1,005
  1,061
  1,120
  1,180
  1,244
  1,309
  1,377
  1,449
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,065
  498
  477
  455
  431
  407
  382
  356
  330
  304
  215
  209
  202
  192
  180
  167
  153
  138
  123
  108
  93
  79
  66
  54
  44
  34
  27
  20
  15
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.2
  98.5
  97.9
  97.4
  97.1
  96.7
  96.5
  96.3
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2

Baxter International Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides renal and hospital products. The Company operates through two segments: Hospital Products and Renal. Its Hospital Products business manufactures sterile intravenous (IV) solutions and administration sets, premixed drugs and drug-reconstitution systems, pre-filled vials and syringes for injectable drugs, IV nutrition products, parenteral nutrition therapies, infusion pumps, inhalation anesthetics and biosurgery products. The Renal business offers a portfolio to meet the needs of patients with end-stage renal disease, or irreversible kidney disease and acute kidney injuries, including technologies and therapies for peritoneal dialysis (PD), hemodialysis (HD), continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) and additional dialysis services. Its products are used by hospitals, kidney dialysis centers, nursing homes, rehabilitation centers, doctors' offices and by patients at home under physician supervision.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Baxter International (BAX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.5
Price to Sales 3.7
Price to Book 4.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 40.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -14%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 934
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 33.5%
Total Debt to Equity 33.6%
Interest Coverage 51
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 27.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Return On Total Capital 37.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Return On Equity 57.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.2%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 42.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42%
EBITDA Margin 57.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.1%
Operating Margin 48.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 48.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Net Profit Margin 48.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.3%
Effective Tax Rate -0.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Payout Ratio 5.4%

BAX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BAX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $10561 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Baxter International. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Baxter International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BAX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BAX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Baxter International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Baxter International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BAX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BAX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Baxter International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Baxter International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BAX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BAX are equal to 61.4%.

Life of production assets of 11.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Baxter International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BAX is equal to 10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $9124 million for Baxter International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 534.266 million for Baxter International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Baxter International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $37.1 billion.

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