Intrinsic value of Bed Bath&Beyond - BBBY

Previous Close

$12.45

  Intrinsic Value

$75.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+506%

Previous close

$12.45

 
Intrinsic value

$75.43

 
Up/down potential

+506%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of BBBY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  12,596
  12,886
  13,217
  13,589
  14,001
  14,453
  14,945
  15,478
  16,052
  16,668
  17,327
  18,030
  18,779
  19,575
  20,419
  21,314
  22,261
  23,263
  24,321
  25,439
  26,618
  27,862
  29,172
  30,553
  32,008
  33,539
  35,151
  36,848
  38,632
  40,509
Variable operating expenses, $m
  11,423
  11,684
  11,983
  12,318
  12,689
  13,097
  13,540
  14,020
  14,538
  15,093
  15,615
  16,249
  16,924
  17,641
  18,402
  19,208
  20,062
  20,965
  21,918
  22,926
  23,988
  25,109
  26,290
  27,535
  28,846
  30,226
  31,678
  33,207
  34,815
  36,507
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  11,423
  11,684
  11,983
  12,318
  12,689
  13,097
  13,540
  14,020
  14,538
  15,093
  15,615
  16,249
  16,924
  17,641
  18,402
  19,208
  20,062
  20,965
  21,918
  22,926
  23,988
  25,109
  26,290
  27,535
  28,846
  30,226
  31,678
  33,207
  34,815
  36,507
Operating income, $m
  1,173
  1,202
  1,234
  1,271
  1,312
  1,356
  1,405
  1,458
  1,514
  1,575
  1,712
  1,781
  1,855
  1,934
  2,017
  2,106
  2,199
  2,298
  2,403
  2,513
  2,630
  2,753
  2,882
  3,019
  3,162
  3,314
  3,473
  3,641
  3,817
  4,002
EBITDA, $m
  1,521
  1,556
  1,596
  1,641
  1,691
  1,745
  1,805
  1,869
  1,938
  2,013
  2,092
  2,177
  2,268
  2,364
  2,466
  2,574
  2,688
  2,809
  2,937
  3,072
  3,214
  3,364
  3,523
  3,689
  3,865
  4,050
  4,245
  4,449
  4,665
  4,892
Interest expense (income), $m
  81
  81
  85
  90
  96
  103
  111
  119
  128
  138
  148
  159
  171
  184
  197
  212
  227
  244
  261
  279
  298
  318
  340
  362
  386
  411
  438
  466
  495
  526
  558
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,092
  1,116
  1,144
  1,175
  1,208
  1,246
  1,286
  1,330
  1,377
  1,427
  1,553
  1,610
  1,672
  1,737
  1,806
  1,879
  1,956
  2,038
  2,124
  2,215
  2,311
  2,413
  2,520
  2,632
  2,751
  2,876
  3,007
  3,146
  3,291
  3,444
Tax expense, $m
  295
  301
  309
  317
  326
  336
  347
  359
  372
  385
  419
  435
  451
  469
  487
  507
  528
  550
  573
  598
  624
  651
  680
  711
  743
  777
  812
  849
  889
  930
Net income, $m
  797
  815
  835
  857
  882
  909
  939
  971
  1,005
  1,042
  1,134
  1,176
  1,220
  1,268
  1,318
  1,371
  1,428
  1,488
  1,551
  1,617
  1,687
  1,761
  1,839
  1,922
  2,008
  2,099
  2,195
  2,296
  2,403
  2,514

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,181
  7,347
  7,535
  7,747
  7,982
  8,240
  8,521
  8,824
  9,152
  9,503
  9,879
  10,280
  10,706
  11,160
  11,642
  12,152
  12,692
  13,263
  13,866
  14,503
  15,176
  15,885
  16,632
  17,419
  18,249
  19,122
  20,041
  21,008
  22,025
  23,095
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,181
  7,347
  7,535
  7,747
  7,982
  8,240
  8,521
  8,824
  9,152
  9,503
  9,879
  10,280
  10,706
  11,160
  11,642
  12,152
  12,692
  13,263
  13,866
  14,503
  15,176
  15,885
  16,632
  17,419
  18,249
  19,122
  20,041
  21,008
  22,025
  23,095
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
  1.754
Average production assets, $m
  2,267
  2,319
  2,379
  2,446
  2,520
  2,602
  2,690
  2,786
  2,889
  3,000
  3,119
  3,245
  3,380
  3,523
  3,675
  3,837
  4,007
  4,187
  4,378
  4,579
  4,791
  5,015
  5,251
  5,500
  5,761
  6,037
  6,327
  6,633
  6,954
  7,292
Working capital, $m
  1,108
  1,134
  1,163
  1,196
  1,232
  1,272
  1,315
  1,362
  1,413
  1,467
  1,525
  1,587
  1,653
  1,723
  1,797
  1,876
  1,959
  2,047
  2,140
  2,239
  2,342
  2,452
  2,567
  2,689
  2,817
  2,951
  3,093
  3,243
  3,400
  3,565
Total debt, $m
  1,577
  1,674
  1,786
  1,911
  2,049
  2,202
  2,367
  2,546
  2,739
  2,947
  3,168
  3,405
  3,657
  3,924
  4,208
  4,509
  4,828
  5,165
  5,521
  5,897
  6,294
  6,712
  7,153
  7,617
  8,107
  8,622
  9,164
  9,734
  10,335
  10,966
Total liabilities, $m
  4,237
  4,335
  4,446
  4,571
  4,710
  4,862
  5,027
  5,206
  5,399
  5,607
  5,828
  6,065
  6,317
  6,584
  6,869
  7,170
  7,488
  7,825
  8,181
  8,557
  8,954
  9,372
  9,813
  10,277
  10,767
  11,282
  11,824
  12,395
  12,995
  13,626
Total equity, $m
  2,944
  3,012
  3,090
  3,176
  3,273
  3,378
  3,493
  3,618
  3,752
  3,896
  4,050
  4,215
  4,390
  4,576
  4,773
  4,982
  5,204
  5,438
  5,685
  5,946
  6,222
  6,513
  6,819
  7,142
  7,482
  7,840
  8,217
  8,613
  9,030
  9,469
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,181
  7,347
  7,536
  7,747
  7,983
  8,240
  8,520
  8,824
  9,151
  9,503
  9,878
  10,280
  10,707
  11,160
  11,642
  12,152
  12,692
  13,263
  13,866
  14,503
  15,176
  15,885
  16,632
  17,419
  18,249
  19,122
  20,041
  21,008
  22,025
  23,095
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.540
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.630
  0.650
  0.680
  0.700
  0.730
  0.760
  0.780
  0.810
  0.830
  0.860
  0.880
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.050
  1.070
  1.080
  1.100
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  797
  815
  835
  857
  882
  909
  939
  971
  1,005
  1,042
  1,134
  1,176
  1,220
  1,268
  1,318
  1,371
  1,428
  1,488
  1,551
  1,617
  1,687
  1,761
  1,839
  1,922
  2,008
  2,099
  2,195
  2,296
  2,403
  2,514
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  348
  354
  362
  370
  379
  389
  400
  411
  424
  438
  380
  396
  412
  430
  448
  468
  489
  511
  534
  558
  584
  612
  640
  671
  703
  736
  772
  809
  848
  889
Funds from operations, $m
  1,146
  1,169
  1,197
  1,227
  1,261
  1,298
  1,339
  1,382
  1,429
  1,479
  1,514
  1,571
  1,632
  1,697
  1,766
  1,839
  1,916
  1,998
  2,084
  2,176
  2,272
  2,373
  2,480
  2,592
  2,711
  2,836
  2,967
  3,105
  3,251
  3,404
Change in working capital, $m
  22
  25
  29
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
Cash from operations, $m
  1,124
  1,144
  1,168
  1,195
  1,225
  1,258
  1,295
  1,335
  1,379
  1,425
  1,456
  1,509
  1,567
  1,627
  1,692
  1,760
  1,833
  1,910
  1,991
  2,077
  2,168
  2,264
  2,364
  2,471
  2,583
  2,701
  2,825
  2,956
  3,094
  3,238
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -272
  -277
  -283
  -290
  -298
  -307
  -317
  -328
  -340
  -352
  -366
  -380
  -396
  -412
  -430
  -448
  -468
  -489
  -511
  -534
  -558
  -584
  -612
  -640
  -671
  -703
  -736
  -772
  -809
  -848
New CAPEX, $m
  -41
  -52
  -60
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -89
  -96
  -103
  -111
  -119
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -180
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -224
  -236
  -249
  -262
  -276
  -290
  -305
  -321
  -338
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -313
  -329
  -343
  -357
  -372
  -388
  -406
  -424
  -443
  -463
  -485
  -507
  -531
  -555
  -582
  -609
  -638
  -669
  -702
  -735
  -770
  -808
  -848
  -889
  -933
  -979
  -1,026
  -1,077
  -1,130
  -1,186
Free cash flow, $m
  811
  815
  825
  838
  852
  870
  889
  911
  935
  962
  971
  1,002
  1,036
  1,072
  1,110
  1,151
  1,195
  1,241
  1,290
  1,342
  1,397
  1,455
  1,517
  1,582
  1,650
  1,723
  1,799
  1,879
  1,963
  2,052
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  85
  97
  111
  125
  139
  152
  166
  179
  193
  207
  222
  237
  252
  268
  284
  301
  319
  337
  356
  376
  397
  418
  441
  465
  489
  515
  542
  571
  600
  631
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  85
  97
  111
  125
  139
  152
  166
  179
  193
  207
  222
  237
  252
  268
  284
  301
  319
  337
  356
  376
  397
  418
  441
  465
  489
  515
  542
  571
  600
  631
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  896
  913
  937
  963
  991
  1,022
  1,055
  1,090
  1,129
  1,169
  1,193
  1,239
  1,288
  1,340
  1,394
  1,452
  1,513
  1,578
  1,646
  1,718
  1,794
  1,874
  1,958
  2,046
  2,140
  2,238
  2,341
  2,450
  2,564
  2,684
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -56
  -68
  -77
  -87
  -96
  -106
  -115
  -125
  -134
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -175
  -186
  -197
  -209
  -221
  -234
  -247
  -261
  -276
  -291
  -306
  -323
  -340
  -358
  -377
  -397
  -417
  -439
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  841
  845
  859
  876
  895
  916
  940
  966
  994
  1,025
  1,039
  1,075
  1,113
  1,154
  1,197
  1,243
  1,292
  1,344
  1,399
  1,457
  1,518
  1,583
  1,651
  1,724
  1,800
  1,880
  1,964
  2,053
  2,147
  2,245
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  806
  774
  748
  721
  694
  665
  635
  604
  571
  537
  493
  459
  423
  387
  351
  316
  281
  247
  215
  185
  157
  131
  108
  88
  70
  55
  42
  32
  23
  17
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. is a retailer, which operates under the names Bed Bath & Beyond (BBB), Christmas Tree Shops, Christmas Tree Shops andThat! or andThat! (collectively, CTS), Harmon or Harmon Face Values (collectively, Harmon), buybuy BABY (Baby) and World Market, Cost Plus World Market or Cost Plus (collectively, Cost Plus World Market). The Company operates in two segments: North American Retail and Institutional Sales. The Company sells a range of domestics merchandise and home furnishings. Domestics merchandise includes categories, such as bed linens and related items, bath items and kitchen textiles. Home furnishings include categories, such as kitchen and tabletop items, fine tabletop, basic housewares, general home furnishings, consumables and juvenile products. The Company operates approximately 1,530 stores plus its various Websites, other interactive platforms and distribution facilities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Bed Bath&Beyond (BBBY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 2.7
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 1.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 54.9%
Total Debt to Equity 54.9%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Return On Total Capital 16.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.1%
Return On Equity 26%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.8%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.2%
EBITDA Margin 11.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Operating Margin 9.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Effective Tax Rate 35.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Payout Ratio 8.2%

BBBY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BBBY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $12349.301 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Bed Bath&Beyond. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Bed Bath&Beyond. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BBBY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BBBY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Bed Bath&Beyond, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Bed Bath&Beyond.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BBBY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BBBY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Bed Bath&Beyond.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Bed Bath&Beyond. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BBBY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BBBY are equal to 18%.

Life of production assets of 8.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Bed Bath&Beyond operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BBBY is equal to 8.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2888.628 million for Bed Bath&Beyond - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 144.119 million for Bed Bath&Beyond is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Bed Bath&Beyond at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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