Intrinsic value of Black Box - BBOX

Previous Close

$0.94

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$0.94

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BBOX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  790
  808
  829
  852
  878
  907
  937
  971
  1,007
  1,046
  1,087
  1,131
  1,178
  1,228
  1,281
  1,337
  1,396
  1,459
  1,526
  1,596
  1,670
  1,748
  1,830
  1,917
  2,008
  2,104
  2,205
  2,311
  2,423
  2,541
Variable operating expenses, $m
  363
  371
  380
  391
  402
  415
  429
  444
  461
  478
  492
  512
  533
  556
  580
  605
  632
  660
  690
  722
  756
  791
  828
  867
  909
  952
  998
  1,046
  1,097
  1,150
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  483
  494
  505
  516
  527
  539
  551
  563
  575
  588
  601
  614
  628
  641
  656
  670
  685
  700
  715
  731
  747
  763
  780
  797
  815
  833
  851
  870
  889
  909
Total operating expenses, $m
  846
  865
  885
  907
  929
  954
  980
  1,007
  1,036
  1,066
  1,093
  1,126
  1,161
  1,197
  1,236
  1,275
  1,317
  1,360
  1,405
  1,453
  1,503
  1,554
  1,608
  1,664
  1,724
  1,785
  1,849
  1,916
  1,986
  2,059
Operating income, $m
  -56
  -57
  -56
  -54
  -52
  -48
  -43
  -36
  -29
  -21
  -6
  5
  17
  31
  46
  62
  80
  99
  120
  143
  167
  193
  222
  252
  284
  319
  356
  395
  438
  483
EBITDA, $m
  -40
  -40
  -39
  -37
  -34
  -30
  -24
  -18
  -10
  -1
  10
  21
  34
  48
  64
  81
  100
  120
  142
  166
  191
  218
  248
  279
  313
  349
  388
  429
  472
  519
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
Earnings before tax, $m
  -65
  -66
  -66
  -64
  -62
  -59
  -54
  -49
  -42
  -35
  -21
  -11
  0
  13
  26
  42
  58
  76
  96
  117
  139
  164
  190
  219
  249
  282
  317
  354
  393
  436
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  3
  7
  11
  16
  21
  26
  31
  38
  44
  51
  59
  67
  76
  85
  95
  106
  118
Net income, $m
  -65
  -66
  -66
  -64
  -62
  -59
  -54
  -49
  -42
  -35
  -21
  -11
  0
  9
  19
  30
  42
  55
  70
  85
  102
  120
  139
  160
  182
  206
  231
  258
  287
  318

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  384
  393
  403
  414
  427
  440
  455
  472
  489
  508
  528
  549
  572
  596
  622
  649
  678
  709
  741
  775
  811
  849
  889
  931
  975
  1,022
  1,071
  1,123
  1,177
  1,234
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  384
  393
  403
  414
  427
  440
  455
  472
  489
  508
  528
  549
  572
  596
  622
  649
  678
  709
  741
  775
  811
  849
  889
  931
  975
  1,022
  1,071
  1,123
  1,177
  1,234
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.057
  2.056
  2.057
  2.058
  2.056
  2.061
  2.059
  2.057
  2.059
  2.059
  2.059
  2.060
  2.059
  2.060
  2.059
  2.060
  2.059
  2.058
  2.059
  2.059
  2.059
  2.059
  2.058
  2.059
  2.059
  2.059
  2.059
  2.058
  2.059
  2.059
Average production assets, $m
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  74
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
Working capital, $m
  104
  107
  109
  113
  116
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  193
  201
  211
  220
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
  320
  335
Total debt, $m
  165
  172
  181
  191
  202
  214
  227
  241
  256
  272
  289
  308
  328
  349
  371
  395
  420
  446
  474
  503
  535
  567
  602
  638
  677
  717
  760
  804
  852
  901
Total liabilities, $m
  332
  340
  349
  359
  369
  381
  394
  408
  423
  440
  457
  476
  495
  516
  539
  562
  587
  614
  642
  671
  702
  735
  770
  806
  844
  885
  927
  972
  1,019
  1,069
Total equity, $m
  51
  53
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  158
  165
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  383
  393
  403
  414
  426
  440
  455
  471
  489
  508
  528
  550
  572
  596
  622
  649
  678
  709
  741
  775
  811
  849
  889
  931
  975
  1,022
  1,070
  1,122
  1,177
  1,234
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.200
  3.280
  3.350
  3.440
  3.530
  3.620
  3.710
  3.810
  3.900
  4.000
  4.090
  4.180
  4.280
  4.360
  4.450
  4.540
  4.620
  4.700
  4.770
  4.850
  4.920
  4.990
  5.050
  5.120
  5.180
  5.240
  5.290
  5.350
  5.400
  5.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -65
  -66
  -66
  -64
  -62
  -59
  -54
  -49
  -42
  -35
  -21
  -11
  0
  9
  19
  30
  42
  55
  70
  85
  102
  120
  139
  160
  182
  206
  231
  258
  287
  318
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
Funds from operations, $m
  -48
  -49
  -49
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -36
  -30
  -23
  -15
  -5
  5
  17
  27
  38
  49
  62
  76
  92
  108
  126
  145
  165
  187
  211
  236
  263
  291
  322
  354
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  -50
  -51
  -51
  -50
  -48
  -44
  -40
  -34
  -28
  -20
  -11
  -1
  11
  20
  31
  42
  55
  68
  83
  99
  116
  134
  154
  176
  199
  223
  249
  277
  307
  339
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -40
  -41
  -44
Free cash flow, $m
  -63
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -62
  -59
  -55
  -50
  -44
  -37
  -29
  -19
  -9
  0
  9
  20
  31
  44
  57
  72
  88
  105
  123
  143
  164
  187
  212
  238
  266
  296
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  6
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  66
  67
  67
  66
  64
  61
  56
  51
  45
  37
  24
  14
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  72
  75
  76
  76
  75
  73
  69
  65
  60
  53
  41
  33
  23
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  12
  13
  14
  21
  32
  43
  56
  70
  85
  101
  119
  138
  158
  180
  203
  228
  254
  283
  313
  345
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -66
  -67
  -67
  -66
  -64
  -61
  -56
  -51
  -45
  -37
  -24
  -14
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -56
  -56
  -56
  -54
  -51
  -47
  -42
  -36
  -29
  -21
  -11
  -1
  11
  18
  28
  40
  52
  66
  81
  97
  114
  133
  153
  174
  197
  221
  248
  276
  306
  337
Discount rate, %
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.88
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.44
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
  22.04
  23.14
  24.30
  25.51
  26.79
  28.12
  29.53
  31.01
  32.56
  34.19
  35.90
  37.69
  39.57
  41.55
  43.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -51
  -46
  -40
  -34
  -28
  -22
  -17
  -12
  -8
  -5
  -2
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  34.9
  12.2
  4.3
  1.6
  0.6
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Black Box Corporation is a technology solutions provider. The Company is engaged in designing, building, managing and securing the information technology (IT) infrastructure. Offerings under the Company's Products platform include IT infrastructure, specialty networking, multimedia and keyboard/video/mouse (KVM) switching. Offerings under its Services platform include unified communications, data infrastructure and managed services. It conducts business globally and manages its business on a geographic-service type basis consisting of four segments: North America Products, North America Services, International Products and International Services. The offerings of its Products platform are distributed through value-added resellers, direct marketing manufacturers, mass merchandisers, Web retailers and others. The offerings of its Services platform are distributed through value-added resellers, manufacturers and large system integrators, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Black Box (BBOX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 0.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -30%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 14
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 62.7%
Total Debt to Equity 63.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Return On Total Capital -2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.1%
Return On Equity -4.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.2%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.5%
EBITDA Margin 2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.9%
Operating Margin -0.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Net Profit Margin -0.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6%
Effective Tax Rate -40%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Payout Ratio -100%

BBOX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BBOX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $774.637 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Black Box. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Black Box. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BBOX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.6%, whose default value for BBOX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Black Box, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Black Box.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BBOX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 45.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $473 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BBOX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for Black Box.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Black Box. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BBOX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BBOX are equal to 7.3%.

Life of production assets of 5.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Black Box operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BBOX is equal to 13.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $50.342 million for Black Box - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.234 million for Black Box is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Black Box at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Black Box: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-21-18 05:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Stocks Advance on Monday   [Aug-20-18 05:49PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Black Box sells IT services unit for $75M   [08:05AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] IT Company Black Box Posts $100 Million Loss for the Year   [Jul-17-18 12:27PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Black Box: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-16-18 09:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ Benzinga Pro's 5 Stocks To Watch Today   [Jul-06-18 08:53AM  Benzinga]
▶ Cash-strapped Black Box alerts shareholders that it could face bankruptcy   [Jul-03-18 08:45AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Black Box launches new Radian Flex Video Wall Platform   [May-30-18 09:04AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Who Owns Black Box Corporation (NASDAQ:BBOX)?   [May-07-18 11:47AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Black Box Introduces Emerald Unified KVM Platform   [Apr-06-18 09:04AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Black Box reports 3Q loss   [Feb-06-18 05:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ 128 Technology and Black Box Announce Global Partnership   [Feb-05-18 11:22AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Black Box Corp. : December 19, 2017   [Dec-19-17 12:19PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Black Box Corp. : November 27, 2017   [Nov-27-17 12:14PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Black Box Corp. : November 17, 2017   [Nov-17-17 11:26AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Black Box Corp. : November 7, 2017   [Nov-07-17 09:44AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Black Box reports 2Q loss   [Oct-31-17 04:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Black Box Corp. : October 26, 2017   [Oct-26-17 10:20AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Black Box Corp. : October 16, 2017   [Oct-16-17 09:48AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Black Box Corp. : October 3, 2017   [Oct-03-17 10:54AM  Capital Cube]

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