Intrinsic value of Black Box - BBOX

Previous Close

$1.63

  Intrinsic Value

$1.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-25%

Previous close

$1.63

 
Intrinsic value

$1.22

 
Up/down potential

-25%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BBOX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  873
  893
  916
  942
  970
  1,002
  1,036
  1,073
  1,113
  1,155
  1,201
  1,250
  1,302
  1,357
  1,415
  1,477
  1,543
  1,612
  1,686
  1,763
  1,845
  1,931
  2,022
  2,118
  2,219
  2,325
  2,437
  2,554
  2,678
  2,808
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,053
  1,077
  1,104
  1,135
  1,169
  1,207
  1,248
  1,292
  1,340
  1,391
  1,439
  1,497
  1,559
  1,625
  1,696
  1,770
  1,848
  1,932
  2,020
  2,112
  2,210
  2,314
  2,422
  2,537
  2,658
  2,785
  2,919
  3,060
  3,208
  3,364
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,053
  1,077
  1,104
  1,135
  1,169
  1,207
  1,248
  1,292
  1,340
  1,391
  1,439
  1,497
  1,559
  1,625
  1,696
  1,770
  1,848
  1,932
  2,020
  2,112
  2,210
  2,314
  2,422
  2,537
  2,658
  2,785
  2,919
  3,060
  3,208
  3,364
Operating income, $m
  -180
  -184
  -188
  -193
  -199
  -205
  -212
  -219
  -227
  -236
  -238
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -280
  -292
  -305
  -319
  -334
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -460
  -482
  -506
  -530
  -556
EBITDA, $m
  -162
  -166
  -170
  -175
  -180
  -186
  -192
  -199
  -207
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -242
  -252
  -263
  -274
  -286
  -299
  -313
  -327
  -343
  -359
  -375
  -393
  -412
  -432
  -452
  -474
  -497
  -521
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
Earnings before tax, $m
  -185
  -189
  -194
  -199
  -205
  -212
  -219
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -248
  -258
  -270
  -281
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -386
  -405
  -424
  -445
  -467
  -490
  -514
  -539
  -565
  -593
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -185
  -189
  -194
  -199
  -205
  -212
  -219
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -248
  -258
  -270
  -281
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -386
  -405
  -424
  -445
  -467
  -490
  -514
  -539
  -565
  -593

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  436
  446
  457
  470
  484
  500
  517
  535
  555
  577
  599
  624
  650
  677
  706
  737
  770
  805
  841
  880
  921
  964
  1,009
  1,057
  1,107
  1,160
  1,216
  1,275
  1,336
  1,401
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  436
  446
  457
  470
  484
  500
  517
  535
  555
  577
  599
  624
  650
  677
  706
  737
  770
  805
  841
  880
  921
  964
  1,009
  1,057
  1,107
  1,160
  1,216
  1,275
  1,336
  1,401
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.002
  2.002
  2.004
  2.004
  2.004
  2.004
  2.004
  2.006
  2.005
  2.002
  2.005
  2.003
  2.003
  2.004
  2.004
  2.004
  2.004
  2.002
  2.005
  2.003
  2.003
  2.003
  2.004
  2.004
  2.005
  2.004
  2.004
  2.003
  2.004
  2.004
Average production assets, $m
  107
  110
  113
  116
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  260
  273
  286
  300
  314
  329
  345
Working capital, $m
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
Total debt, $m
  96
  102
  110
  119
  128
  139
  150
  162
  176
  190
  205
  221
  239
  257
  276
  297
  319
  342
  367
  392
  420
  448
  479
  511
  544
  580
  617
  656
  697
  741
Total liabilities, $m
  291
  298
  305
  314
  323
  334
  345
  358
  371
  385
  400
  417
  434
  452
  472
  492
  514
  537
  562
  588
  615
  644
  674
  706
  740
  775
  812
  851
  893
  936
Total equity, $m
  145
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  172
  178
  184
  191
  199
  207
  216
  225
  234
  245
  256
  267
  279
  292
  306
  320
  335
  351
  368
  385
  404
  423
  444
  465
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  436
  446
  457
  470
  484
  500
  517
  536
  555
  576
  599
  624
  650
  677
  706
  737
  770
  804
  841
  880
  921
  964
  1,009
  1,057
  1,108
  1,160
  1,216
  1,274
  1,337
  1,401
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.660
  0.690
  0.720
  0.760
  0.800
  0.830
  0.870
  0.910
  0.950
  0.990
  1.030
  1.070
  1.110
  1.140
  1.180
  1.210
  1.250
  1.280
  1.310
  1.340
  1.370
  1.400
  1.430
  1.460
  1.480
  1.500
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -185
  -189
  -194
  -199
  -205
  -212
  -219
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -248
  -258
  -270
  -281
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -386
  -405
  -424
  -445
  -467
  -490
  -514
  -539
  -565
  -593
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
Funds from operations, $m
  -167
  -171
  -176
  -181
  -187
  -193
  -200
  -207
  -215
  -224
  -233
  -243
  -254
  -265
  -277
  -289
  -302
  -317
  -331
  -347
  -364
  -381
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -461
  -484
  -507
  -533
  -559
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  -166
  -170
  -174
  -179
  -185
  -191
  -198
  -205
  -213
  -222
  -231
  -241
  -251
  -262
  -274
  -286
  -299
  -313
  -328
  -343
  -359
  -377
  -395
  -414
  -434
  -455
  -478
  -501
  -526
  -552
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -49
Free cash flow, $m
  -179
  -183
  -188
  -194
  -200
  -207
  -215
  -223
  -231
  -241
  -251
  -261
  -273
  -285
  -297
  -311
  -325
  -340
  -356
  -373
  -391
  -410
  -430
  -451
  -473
  -496
  -520
  -546
  -573
  -601
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  187
  192
  198
  204
  210
  217
  225
  233
  242
  252
  256
  267
  278
  291
  304
  318
  332
  348
  364
  382
  400
  419
  440
  461
  483
  507
  532
  558
  586
  615
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  193
  199
  206
  213
  220
  227
  236
  245
  255
  266
  271
  283
  295
  309
  324
  339
  354
  371
  388
  408
  427
  448
  470
  493
  517
  542
  569
  597
  627
  658
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -187
  -192
  -198
  -204
  -210
  -217
  -225
  -233
  -242
  -252
  -256
  -267
  -278
  -291
  -304
  -318
  -332
  -348
  -364
  -382
  -400
  -419
  -440
  -461
  -483
  -507
  -532
  -558
  -586
  -615
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -173
  -176
  -181
  -185
  -191
  -197
  -203
  -210
  -218
  -226
  -235
  -245
  -255
  -266
  -278
  -290
  -303
  -317
  -332
  -348
  -364
  -381
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -460
  -483
  -507
  -531
  -558
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -166
  -162
  -157
  -153
  -148
  -143
  -137
  -131
  -125
  -119
  -112
  -105
  -97
  -89
  -82
  -74
  -66
  -58
  -51
  -44
  -38
  -32
  -26
  -21
  -17
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  34.7
  12.0
  4.1
  1.4
  0.5
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Black Box Corporation is a technology solutions provider. The Company is engaged in designing, building, managing and securing the information technology (IT) infrastructure. Offerings under the Company's Products platform include IT infrastructure, specialty networking, multimedia and keyboard/video/mouse (KVM) switching. Offerings under its Services platform include unified communications, data infrastructure and managed services. It conducts business globally and manages its business on a geographic-service type basis consisting of four segments: North America Products, North America Services, International Products and International Services. The offerings of its Products platform are distributed through value-added resellers, direct marketing manufacturers, mass merchandisers, Web retailers and others. The offerings of its Services platform are distributed through value-added resellers, manufacturers and large system integrators, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Black Box (BBOX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.5
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 0.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -30%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 14
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 62.7%
Total Debt to Equity 63.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Return On Total Capital -2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.1%
Return On Equity -4.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.2%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.5%
EBITDA Margin 2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.9%
Operating Margin -0.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Net Profit Margin -0.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6%
Effective Tax Rate -40%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Payout Ratio -100%

BBOX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BBOX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $856 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Black Box. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Black Box. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BBOX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BBOX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Black Box, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Black Box.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BBOX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 120.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BBOX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Black Box.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Black Box. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BBOX stock is equal to 0.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BBOX are equal to 12.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Black Box operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BBOX is equal to -5.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $142 million for Black Box - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15 million for Black Box is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Black Box at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] IT Company Black Box Posts $100 Million Loss for the Year   [Jul-17-18 12:27PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Black Box: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-16-18 09:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ Benzinga Pro's 5 Stocks To Watch Today   [Jul-06-18 08:53AM  Benzinga]
▶ Cash-strapped Black Box alerts shareholders that it could face bankruptcy   [Jul-03-18 08:45AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Black Box launches new Radian Flex Video Wall Platform   [May-30-18 09:04AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Who Owns Black Box Corporation (NASDAQ:BBOX)?   [May-07-18 11:47AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Black Box Introduces Emerald Unified KVM Platform   [Apr-06-18 09:04AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Black Box reports 3Q loss   [Feb-06-18 05:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ 128 Technology and Black Box Announce Global Partnership   [Feb-05-18 11:22AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Black Box Corp. : December 19, 2017   [Dec-19-17 12:19PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Black Box Corp. : November 27, 2017   [Nov-27-17 12:14PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Black Box Corp. : November 17, 2017   [Nov-17-17 11:26AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Black Box Corp. : November 7, 2017   [Nov-07-17 09:44AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Black Box reports 2Q loss   [Oct-31-17 04:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Black Box Corp. : October 26, 2017   [Oct-26-17 10:20AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Black Box Corp. : October 16, 2017   [Oct-16-17 09:48AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Black Box Corp. : October 3, 2017   [Oct-03-17 10:54AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Black Box Announces Enhancements to Boxilla System   [Sep-15-17 09:04AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Black Box shares fall 40 percent after widened loss, suspended dividend   [Aug-11-17 02:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Black Box reports 1Q loss   [Aug-10-17 09:22PM  Associated Press]
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