Intrinsic value of B Communications - BCOM

Previous Close

$16.35

  Intrinsic Value

$73.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+348%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$16.35

 
Intrinsic value

$73.30

 
Up/down potential

+348%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BCOM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2011), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2011(a)
   2012
   2013
   2014
   2015
   2016
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  31.34
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,076
  3,138
  3,210
  3,292
  3,385
  3,487
  3,600
  3,723
  3,855
  3,998
  4,152
  4,316
  4,491
  4,678
  4,876
  5,086
  5,309
  5,545
  5,794
  6,058
  6,336
  6,630
  6,940
  7,266
  7,610
  7,973
  8,354
  8,756
  9,178
  9,623
  10,090
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  813
  831
  853
  877
  903
  932
  964
  999
  1,036
  1,075
  1,118
  1,163
  1,211
  1,263
  1,317
  1,375
  1,436
  1,501
  1,569
  1,641
  1,717
  1,797
  1,882
  1,971
  2,065
  2,164
  2,268
  2,377
  2,492
  2,613
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,474
  1,511
  1,549
  1,587
  1,627
  1,668
  1,709
  1,752
  1,796
  1,841
  1,887
  1,934
  1,982
  2,032
  2,083
  2,135
  2,188
  2,243
  2,299
  2,356
  2,415
  2,476
  2,538
  2,601
  2,666
  2,733
  2,801
  2,871
  2,943
  3,016
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,199
  2,287
  2,342
  2,402
  2,464
  2,530
  2,600
  2,673
  2,751
  2,832
  2,916
  3,005
  3,097
  3,193
  3,295
  3,400
  3,510
  3,624
  3,744
  3,868
  3,997
  4,132
  4,273
  4,420
  4,572
  4,731
  4,897
  5,069
  5,248
  5,435
  5,629
Operating income, $m
  877
  851
  868
  891
  921
  957
  1,000
  1,049
  1,105
  1,167
  1,236
  1,311
  1,394
  1,484
  1,581
  1,686
  1,799
  1,921
  2,051
  2,190
  2,339
  2,498
  2,667
  2,847
  3,038
  3,242
  3,458
  3,687
  3,930
  4,188
  4,460
EBITDA, $m
  1,247
  1,170
  1,194
  1,226
  1,265
  1,312
  1,366
  1,428
  1,497
  1,574
  1,658
  1,750
  1,851
  1,960
  2,077
  2,204
  2,339
  2,485
  2,640
  2,806
  2,984
  3,172
  3,373
  3,586
  3,813
  4,053
  4,308
  4,578
  4,864
  5,167
  5,487
Interest expense (income), $m
  102
  88
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  155
  163
  173
  182
  193
  204
  215
  228
  241
  254
  269
  284
  300
  316
  334
  353
  372
Earnings before tax, $m
  762
  763
  781
  801
  827
  859
  898
  942
  992
  1,048
  1,111
  1,180
  1,255
  1,337
  1,426
  1,523
  1,627
  1,738
  1,858
  1,986
  2,124
  2,270
  2,426
  2,593
  2,770
  2,958
  3,158
  3,371
  3,596
  3,835
  4,088
Tax expense, $m
  205
  206
  211
  216
  223
  232
  242
  254
  268
  283
  300
  319
  339
  361
  385
  411
  439
  469
  502
  536
  573
  613
  655
  700
  748
  799
  853
  910
  971
  1,035
  1,104
Net income, $m
  559
  557
  570
  585
  604
  627
  655
  688
  724
  765
  811
  861
  916
  976
  1,041
  1,112
  1,187
  1,269
  1,356
  1,450
  1,550
  1,657
  1,771
  1,893
  2,022
  2,159
  2,305
  2,460
  2,625
  2,800
  2,984

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  622
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,688
  4,145
  4,240
  4,349
  4,471
  4,607
  4,756
  4,918
  5,093
  5,282
  5,484
  5,701
  5,933
  6,179
  6,441
  6,719
  7,013
  7,325
  7,654
  8,003
  8,370
  8,758
  9,168
  9,599
  10,053
  10,532
  11,036
  11,566
  12,124
  12,712
  13,329
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,066
  4,145
  4,240
  4,349
  4,471
  4,607
  4,756
  4,918
  5,093
  5,282
  5,484
  5,701
  5,933
  6,179
  6,441
  6,719
  7,013
  7,325
  7,654
  8,003
  8,370
  8,758
  9,168
  9,599
  10,053
  10,532
  11,036
  11,566
  12,124
  12,712
  13,329
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
Average production assets, $m
  2,161
  2,203
  2,253
  2,311
  2,376
  2,448
  2,527
  2,613
  2,706
  2,807
  2,915
  3,030
  3,153
  3,284
  3,423
  3,570
  3,727
  3,893
  4,068
  4,253
  4,448
  4,654
  4,872
  5,101
  5,342
  5,597
  5,865
  6,146
  6,443
  6,755
  7,083
Working capital, $m
  385
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
Total debt, $m
  2,591
  2,350
  2,436
  2,534
  2,644
  2,766
  2,900
  3,046
  3,204
  3,374
  3,556
  3,751
  3,959
  4,181
  4,417
  4,667
  4,932
  5,212
  5,509
  5,822
  6,153
  6,503
  6,871
  7,259
  7,668
  8,099
  8,552
  9,030
  9,532
  10,060
  10,616
Total liabilities, $m
  3,971
  3,730
  3,816
  3,914
  4,024
  4,146
  4,280
  4,426
  4,584
  4,754
  4,936
  5,131
  5,339
  5,561
  5,797
  6,047
  6,312
  6,592
  6,889
  7,202
  7,533
  7,883
  8,251
  8,639
  9,048
  9,479
  9,932
  10,410
  10,912
  11,440
  11,996
Total equity, $m
  717
  414
  424
  435
  447
  461
  476
  492
  509
  528
  548
  570
  593
  618
  644
  672
  701
  732
  765
  800
  837
  876
  917
  960
  1,005
  1,053
  1,104
  1,157
  1,212
  1,271
  1,333
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,688
  4,144
  4,240
  4,349
  4,471
  4,607
  4,756
  4,918
  5,093
  5,282
  5,484
  5,701
  5,932
  6,179
  6,441
  6,719
  7,013
  7,324
  7,654
  8,002
  8,370
  8,759
  9,168
  9,599
  10,053
  10,532
  11,036
  11,567
  12,124
  12,711
  13,329
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.614
  5.670
  5.750
  5.830
  5.910
  6.000
  6.100
  6.190
  6.290
  6.390
  6.480
  6.580
  6.670
  6.770
  6.860
  6.950
  7.030
  7.120
  7.200
  7.280
  7.350
  7.420
  7.490
  7.560
  7.630
  7.690
  7.750
  7.810
  7.860
  7.910
  7.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.074
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  559
  557
  570
  585
  604
  627
  655
  688
  724
  765
  811
  861
  916
  976
  1,041
  1,112
  1,187
  1,269
  1,356
  1,450
  1,550
  1,657
  1,771
  1,893
  2,022
  2,159
  2,305
  2,460
  2,625
  2,800
  2,984
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  370
  319
  327
  335
  344
  355
  366
  379
  392
  407
  422
  439
  457
  476
  496
  517
  540
  564
  590
  616
  645
  675
  706
  739
  774
  811
  850
  891
  934
  979
  1,027
Funds from operations, $m
  456
  876
  896
  920
  948
  982
  1,022
  1,066
  1,116
  1,172
  1,233
  1,300
  1,373
  1,452
  1,537
  1,629
  1,728
  1,833
  1,946
  2,066
  2,195
  2,332
  2,477
  2,632
  2,796
  2,970
  3,155
  3,351
  3,559
  3,779
  4,011
Change in working capital, $m
  -406
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  862
  877
  897
  920
  949
  983
  1,023
  1,067
  1,118
  1,173
  1,235
  1,302
  1,375
  1,454
  1,539
  1,631
  1,730
  1,835
  1,948
  2,069
  2,198
  2,335
  2,480
  2,635
  2,800
  2,974
  3,159
  3,355
  3,563
  3,783
  4,016
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -313
  -319
  -327
  -335
  -344
  -355
  -366
  -379
  -392
  -407
  -422
  -439
  -457
  -476
  -496
  -517
  -540
  -564
  -590
  -616
  -645
  -675
  -706
  -739
  -774
  -811
  -850
  -891
  -934
  -979
New CAPEX, $m
  -515
  -42
  -51
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -108
  -115
  -123
  -131
  -139
  -148
  -156
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -206
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -268
  -282
  -297
  -312
  -328
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -674
  -355
  -370
  -385
  -400
  -416
  -434
  -452
  -472
  -492
  -515
  -537
  -562
  -588
  -615
  -644
  -673
  -706
  -739
  -775
  -811
  -851
  -892
  -935
  -980
  -1,028
  -1,079
  -1,132
  -1,188
  -1,246
  -1,307
Free cash flow, $m
  188
  521
  527
  536
  549
  567
  589
  615
  646
  681
  720
  764
  813
  866
  924
  987
  1,056
  1,130
  1,209
  1,294
  1,386
  1,484
  1,588
  1,700
  1,819
  1,946
  2,080
  2,223
  2,376
  2,537
  2,708
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,029
  -34
  86
  98
  110
  122
  134
  146
  158
  170
  182
  195
  208
  222
  236
  250
  265
  281
  297
  313
  331
  349
  368
  388
  409
  431
  454
  477
  502
  528
  556
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  79
  -34
  86
  98
  110
  122
  134
  146
  158
  170
  182
  195
  208
  222
  236
  250
  265
  281
  297
  313
  331
  349
  368
  388
  409
  431
  454
  477
  502
  528
  556
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  267
  488
  613
  634
  659
  689
  723
  761
  804
  851
  903
  959
  1,021
  1,088
  1,160
  1,237
  1,321
  1,410
  1,506
  1,608
  1,717
  1,833
  1,957
  2,088
  2,228
  2,376
  2,534
  2,701
  2,878
  3,066
  3,264
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -389
  -112
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  415
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  790
  604
  623
  647
  675
  708
  745
  786
  832
  883
  938
  998
  1,063
  1,134
  1,210
  1,291
  1,379
  1,473
  1,573
  1,680
  1,794
  1,916
  2,045
  2,182
  2,328
  2,483
  2,648
  2,822
  3,007
  3,203
Discount rate, %
 
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  748
  538
  521
  503
  486
  468
  449
  429
  407
  384
  359
  333
  306
  278
  250
  222
  194
  168
  142
  119
  98
  79
  62
  48
  37
  27
  20
  14
  10
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

B Communications Ltd. is focused on the telecommunications industry. The Company's principal asset is its ownership interest in Bezeq The Israel Telecommunications Corp. Ltd. (Bezeq), a provider of communications services in Israel. Bezeq and its subsidiaries operate through segments, including Bezeq, which offers fixed-line telephony services and fixed-line broadband Internet infrastructure access; Pelephone, which offers cellular telephony services; Bezeq International, which offers Internet service provider (ISP) and international telephony (ILD) services, and DBS, which offers pay television services. Bezeq offers a range of telecommunications operations and services, including domestic fixed-line, Internet services, television and radio broadcasts, satellite broadcasts, maintenance and development of communications infrastructures, providing communications services to other communications providers, and supply and maintenance of equipment on customer premises.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  B Communications (BCOM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0.9
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 1.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 31.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 51.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 83.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 332.5%
Total Debt to Equity 361.4%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Total Capital 17%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Equity 107%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 100%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 99.3%
EBITDA Margin 40.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.3%
Operating Margin 28.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Pre-Tax Margin 24.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Net Profit Margin 18.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Effective Tax Rate 26.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

BCOM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BCOM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3076 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by B Communications. The default revenue input number comes from 2011 income statement of B Communications. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BCOM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for BCOM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of B Communications, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of B Communications.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BCOM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 25.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1438 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BCOM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for B Communications.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for B Communications. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BCOM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BCOM are equal to 70.2%.

Life of production assets of 6.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in B Communications operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BCOM is equal to -1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $717 million for B Communications - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 105.226 million for B Communications is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of B Communications at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ B Communications posts 2Q profit   [Aug-31-17 11:00PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of BCOM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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